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Early voting continues at a record pace. 95 million+ in 2020 exceeding all early votes in 2016. Early Votes nearing 65% of 2016 Totals [Updated 11-01]

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platocplx

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
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Oct 30, 2017
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Early Vote Analysis for Sunday, Nov. 1
Record Overall Turnout?
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It appears likely that around 100 million early votes will be cast by the time Tuesday morning reports are processed. These reports will include early voting activity from the proceeding day. It is also likely reports by Tuesday morning will fail to capture all of the pre-election voting activity since there are sporadic reports of election officials experiencing delays in processing the unprecedented number of mail ballots. Furthermore, many states continue to accept mail ballots if they are postmarked on or before Election Day, as noted in this New York Times article. This report does not accurately describe mail ballot return deadlines for military and overseas civilian voters, which can be later than domestic voters.
What does this mean for overall turnout, including Election Day voters?
Before answering this question, let me first reiterate something very important about how to make forecasts with these data. The approach I use is known as difference-in-difference. In the election context, this technique makes a comparison to a past comparable election and then forecasts based on the current election.
For example, in 2016 40% of the vote was cast early (this is a reasonable estimate of all early voting activity in 2016). If nothing changed, knowing the current estimate of 100 million early votes we could forecast 100 million/40% = 250 million votes will be cast in the election. Now, that is a ridiculously high number and we will not come close since it would be higher than the 239 million people I estimate are eligible to vote!
The obvious reason why an estimate of 40% of the vote will be cast early is wrong is that something changed. The difference-in-difference approach works best where there is a good comparison point. Does this mean that things are so different than 2016 that we cannot know anything from the early vote? No. There are some states where there is a good past comparison because they did not change their elections significantly or where we can make educated guesses about what the early vote is telling us relative to 2016.
One strong signal is that turnout will be higher than in 2016, because some states have already exceeded their 2016 turnout or are close to doing so.
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Who Will Win?
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I know you could care less about a turnout prediction. What you really want to know is who will win.

For the most part, the clues come from states that have party registration. The difference-in-difference approach can be applied by examining the difference in the percentage of early voters in 2016 registered with the Democratic and Republican Parties and comparing the party registration difference to 2020.

The caveats that apply to forecasting turnout, also apply to forecasting who will win, with an additional caveat:

  • We cannot know with certainty the vote preferences of registered Democrats, Republicans, or non-affiliated voters.
Surveys are the best source of this latter information. For those who say surveys are the only source for forecasting election outcomes, I would point out that some survey samples are drawn from lists of registered voters and are weighted to party registration breakdowns. These pollsters implicitly believe there is value to party registration data.

I believe that the party registration breakdowns of early voters can provide clues not only to the partisan composition of the electorate, but also to the relative enthusiasm of Democrats and Republicans to vote. If there is an electoral swing towards a candidates of a political party, some of that swing should be evident in relative enthusiasm to vote (early).

Again, the big caution is that early voting has changed so much from 2016 in many states, that there is no good past comparison; a key assumption of the difference-in-difference approach.

There are certain states that did not change the way they run their elections: the all-mail ballot states. Let's start with analyzing three in particular: Colorado, Oregon, and Nevada (which had a large amount of early vote in 2016). These provide us with the best 2016 comparison.
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Outstanding Mail Ballots
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If much concern to Democrats are all the mail ballots that have yet to be returned. These should be of concern, but I want to put these statistics in context.

As of this writing, there are 31,958,869 outstanding mail ballots that have not been entered as returned by election officials.

There are many unknowns with the outstanding mail ballots, so it is difficult to take these numbers at face value.

Factors in favor of the outstanding mail ballots being an over-count:

  • Some mail ballots are in transit.
  • Some states continue to accept mail ballots if postmarked by Election Day.
  • Some are at election offices but have not been entered into their databases.
  • It is unclear how election officials manage data for voters who requested a mail ballot, but decided to cast an in-person vote.
Factors in favor of the outstanding mail ballots being an under-count:

  • Some states do not report mail ballot applications or the number of ballots sent; Texas probably being the largest of these states.
  • Although not affecting the total number, the mail ballot return rate is too high in states where in-person votes are co-mingled with mail ballots; states like Iowa, among others.
Election officials in many states have never had to process so many mail ballots, so reporting delays and inconsistencies in reporting are understandable. When there were only tens of thousands of mail ballots statewide in some of these states, it was relatively easy to process the ballots and no one really cared about the few where someone may vote in-person. Increase the workload by two orders of magnitude, and delays will happen. Add to this the uncertainties with the post office driving more people to decide to vote in-person. We're making do in tough times with a poorly-funded election infrastructure in many places.
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more:Early Vote Analysis for Sunday, November 1st




Original Post

At least 866,734 people have voted in this year's election as of September 26, according to the U.S. Elections Project, which is run by University of Florida political science professor Michael McDonald. The number is based on 25 states whose early voting data is available, meaning it does not convey the entire picture.

"These states are those where I have current data on mail ballot activity," McDonald wrote in a blog post Saturday morning. "More states will be added as state reports become available."
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While it is important to note that this number is only an estimate and could've been higher depending on whether McDonald had access to more states' data, the difference of more than 850,000 votes from this time in 2016 is astonishing.

As McDonald acknowledged in a blog post written at the time, the pace of early voting will naturally increase as Election Day draws nearer and more people finalize their choices. Just one week later—on October 2, 2016—at least 78,836 people had cast their ballot early in the reporting states, McDonald found. By October 16, 2016, that number had increased even further to be around 1.4 million voters.
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www.newsweek.com

Over 860,000 Have Voted in U.S., Compared to 9,500 by This Point in 2016

The reported number is a sign of Americans' excitement for the upcoming election, as well as an increased commitment to voting early fueled by the coronavirus pandemic and concern over the U.S. Postal Service.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

pretty interesting information. I definitely want to see how things look by October 16th this year.


snapshot of early voters



Big Note
Voters have requested a total of 63,978,880 ballots in the reporting states.
states who report party data.


When early voting starts
NOW Sept. 18 - Minnesota, South Dakota and Wyoming
NOW Sept. 19 - New Jersey and Virginia
NOW Sept. 21 - Michigan and Vermont
NOW Sept. 24 - Illinois
NOW Oct. 4 - Maine
NOW Oct. 5 - California, Iowa, Montana and Nebraska and South Carolina
NOWOct. 6 - Indiana and Ohio
NOW Oct. 7 -- Arizona
NOW Oct. 12 - Georgia
NOW Oct. 13 - Texas
NOWOct. 14 - Kansas and Tennessee
NOWOct. 15 - North Carolina
NOWOct. 16 - Washington,Louisiana
NOWOct. 17 - Massachusetts, Nevada and New Mexico
NOWOct. 19 - Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota and Some Florida Counties(see news article)
NOWOct. 20 - Utah and Wisconsin
NOWOct. 21 - West Virginia
NOWOct. 24 - New York
NOWOct. 26 - Maryland
NOWOct. 27 - District of Columbia
NOWOct. 29 - Oklahoma
 
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Relix

Relix

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Oct 25, 2017
6,266
i am waiting for my ballots in Florida. Ready to vote the orange shit out
 
GARlock Spiral

GARlock Spiral

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Dec 21, 2017
1,225
Makes sense. A lot of voters sat out last time.

Trump's level of shittiness is enough to get people out to vote him out.
 

madstarr12

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Jan 25, 2018
2,574
Are we still gonna get exit polls? I feel like with voting being all over the place in terms of mail, early, then election day, it's gonna be difficult to do.
 
Pwnz

Pwnz

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Oct 28, 2017
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Turnout was huge in 2018 and in Democrat primaries. A lot of LV polls don't capture this properly.
 
chefbags

chefbags

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,331
Can't wait for that mail in ballot for California.

Gonna vote so fucking hard. This is definitely the moment in history that changes the trajectory for generations and it ain't a hyperbole.
 
Nida

Nida

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Aug 31, 2019
11,346
Everett, Washington
walkinfast said:
Yes, and mail in voters too. Which is why the GOP is so against both.
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And Trump supporters are probably going to go out of their way to avoid mail-in voting. They will want to make a statement by voting in person because they think the pandemic is a scam.

We saw the Trump supporters at the early voting stations in Virginia, but they weren't there to vote, they were there to intimidate people and start a scene.

I'm going into this election expecting Trump to win. Not because I think he will, but because it's the opposite of how i thought in 2016. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised. But seeeing polls and stuff like this is encouraging.
 
Slayven

Slayven

Never read a comic in his life
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Oct 25, 2017
93,848
Got my mail in yesterday, going to take it to the dropoff box that is just around the counter
 
Saiyaman

Saiyaman

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Dec 19, 2017
1,897
Got my ballot in the mail today in Florida, LET'S GO.

My state still gonna mess things up.
 

Deleted member 4367

User requested account closure
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Oct 25, 2017
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I expect record turnout and that all attempts at voter suppression will catastrophically backfire on them.
 

dep9000

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Mar 31, 2020
5,401
It's taking forever for my voter registration to get processed. Hope it gets processed soon so I can vote early
 
Hoa

Hoa

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Jun 6, 2018
4,358
X2ea.gif

Michael-McDonald-Sweet-Freedom.gif


Sounds like sweet freedom to me, professor! Clock is ticking.
 
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platocplx

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,085
DiipuSurotu said:
Nope. Don't believe the polls and articles.

VOTE.
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VOTE.
Also check out this thread

www.resetera.com

Scared? Frustrated? Get Mitch Or Die Trying - Donate To 11 Vulnerable US Senate Races

DONATE TO HELP CHANGE THE SENATE MAJORITY https://secure.actblue.com/donate/getmitch this fund is another split. But also contributes to the Kentucky commonwealth fund. They're working to register 170,000 re-enfranchised Kentuckians, ex-felons to whom Governor Andy Beshear has restored the...
www.resetera.com www.resetera.com
 
WedgeX

WedgeX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,313
Anxious for mine to arrive - although we're pretty much guaranteed to give our electoral votes to Biden 90-10. At least. But voting will feel great.
 
djplaeskool

djplaeskool

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,854
Should be getting my absentee ballot soon when GA early voting starts.
There's a county drop box five minutes from me.

Me, dropping off my ballot:
DiligentSpicyAfricanharrierhawk-size_restricted.gif
 
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platocplx

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,085
Interesting numbers
Voters have requested a total of 63,978,880 ballots in the reporting states.
83% of early voters so far are democrat and no party affiliation.

democrats have turned of 3x more than Republicans so far
 
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