But of course. If the market does go to shit and the Dems have congress I expect Trump to blame the Dems. Doesn't matter if it make sense or not when everything is fake news but what Trump says.
Dow drops 831 points yesterday and another 546 points today [Updated 1pm PST 10/11/18]
- Thread starter ReactionShot
- Start date
thanks will look into it... I do see some tad higher rates on bankrate.com but it's negligible.
This analysis is highly appreciated. I didn't realize the SP500 cracked the 200 DMA. There could be a big leg up tomorrow, but this likely won't be the support level like you said.Time for a little stock chart technical analysis. The 200 day moving average (red line below) has been sliced through and the market closed below it. This is a big deal. During the severe pullback in the first quarter of this year, the S&P 500 consistently refused to close below the 200 day moving average. The markets went below the 200 day moving average during that correction, but it popped right back above it very quickly. The end result of now closing substantially below the 200 day moving average will be to spook Wall Street.
However, the Slow Stochastics and RSI readings are showing oversold conditions, so selling pressure should be getting exhausted, and further declines becomes more statistically improbable, at least the very immediate short term. The market could though go sideways for a few days and cool off these oversold readings, and then begin selling again. With the 200 day moving average being cracked through, that's probably as likely as the market finding support here.
The market is looking to the Dems to avoid catastrophe. Inflation worries and tarriff terrors are expected to be tackled by the Dems once they win the midterms, and I am assuming quite strongly the Dems will win.
Yasss
Blue wave now with a minor recession vs malinvestment with continued Trump garbage. I'll take the blue wave. If you put the 430 million that trump inherited decades ago into sp500, it would be a dozen times more than Trumps net worth. Trump is a dumbass.
afaik RSI is only useful as an oversold indicator if you expect it to adhere to mean reversion -- it's less "this stock is oversold" and more "this stock went down fast" as it's merely based on price action (but under normal circumstances, you'd expect it to recover because mean reversion is usually a thing -- except when it's not)Time for a little stock chart technical analysis. The 200 day moving average (red line below) has been sliced through and the market closed below it. This is a big deal. During the severe pullback in the first quarter of this year, the S&P 500 consistently refused to close below the 200 day moving average. The markets went below the 200 day moving average during that correction, but it popped right back above it very quickly. The end result of now closing substantially below the 200 day moving average will be to spook Wall Street.
However, the Slow Stochastics and RSI readings are showing oversold conditions, so selling pressure should be getting exhausted, and further declines becomes more statistically improbable, at least the very immediate short term. The market could though go sideways for a few days and cool off these oversold readings, and then begin selling again. With the 200 day moving average being cracked through, that's probably as likely as the market finding support here.
Last edited:
Yes they will unfortunately for them the president is who gets all the blame for the economy.
If Democrats start gaining ground in government you will almost certainly see TEH UNCERTAINTY narrative creep back.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/09/...er-surprise-if-history-is-any-indication.html
If anyone's wondering why the numbers are getting worse this week, this is why. October has never been bad, and now it's looking that way.
If banking doesn't pick up the slack tomorrow, we are entering recession territory quite quickly, IMO.
If anyone's wondering why the numbers are getting worse this week, this is why. October has never been bad, and now it's looking that way.
If banking doesn't pick up the slack tomorrow, we are entering recession territory quite quickly, IMO.
Depends on what stock you hold. Long term buy and hold helped survive the 2008 crash, but now this time if it's happening mainly to the tech sector, ding, ding, ding! Red flags! The lesson learned should come from the dot.com crash where a lot of tech stock did not recover. Long term wasn't the safe strategy for plenty of stock during the dot.com crash. I was glad I didn't just hang onto everything back then. I was very grateful for the stop loss strategy.
Again, it depends on the stock. Buy and hold works good for large market cap companies. It also works good for index funds because that's the ultimate in diversification. Absolutely, long term hold is a safe strategy if you've got index funds. But buy and hold is no guarantee if you're holding a bunch of individual stocks and weak diversification.
The investors who survived historical crashes the best and profited the most were the ones who stuck by the old adage... buy low, sell high. You can't always anticipate the high point, but when a stock is consistently falling, why the hell are you not selling? That's the whole purpose of the stop loss. To protect you from losses.
Sell when it's falling, wait for the stock to bottom out, then buy it up again when it starts to show recovery. That avoids most of the downfall and profits the most when you can buy at a low point. Waiting it out is just eating the loss and hoping for recovery. Why do that when you can avoid the loss.
Long term hold might result in surviving the crash, but it's not the most profitable strategy. Sell high, buy low. That results in significantly more profitable returns.
Even 2% is going to be a poor option depending on your plan for the money.
To go a little inside baseball again, money was so cheap for so long that I expect a fairly significant lag on liquid deposit rate increases.
It's why I don't agree that interest rates are too high, but rather this rate uptick started too late and created this necessity to raise rates quickly. I don't think rate hikes are done either, though likely post-elections.
In other news:
For those in variable-rate loan products, refinancing now is going to hurt but still likely a better plan than waiting this out. Same thing with mortgage shoppers— unfortunately the writing has been on the wall for some time (at least the last nearly 24-36 months).
In a vacuum, today's rates are still going to be "good" when compared against a wider timeframe (say decades) but are going to feel a lot worse when looking back on a shorter term (say post-2008).
I also think this is more the result of the past 10+ years of monetary policy rather than the current idiot in charge but I know this isn't a time for logic.
We now return to our regularly scheduled political commentary.
Yeah. I never trust that mean inversion is ever going to happen because there's too much speculation to ever have a predictable outcome.
This completely depends on how long you plan to stay invested. If you say are investing over 40 years this above advice will result in lower returns because every time you buy and sell you will do so at the slightly right and wrong time.
Win what? There is a good chance that Dems will win the House, but the GOP is going to hold onto the Senate. And I do not see the GOP throwing out tariffs because Dems control the House.
At this point I'm just gonna cancel any auto purchases for my portfolio and just wait for the rebound. No sense in worrying if you're in for the long term.
Yeah, would be better off with an etf than what I proposed.
Oh sweet. I just got awarded stock in my company. It has lost a ton of value already. Wonderful.
Just a reminder that at much lower prices in 2016 the clown was calling the stock market a "big, fat bubble". And as recently as a week ago:
I've been weighing finding a new job, but maybe I'll stick it out where I'm at. I work in Workforce Development, and our funding from the federal government works inverse with the state of the economy. When the economy is good, funding is low... and when it's in the shitter - government typically throws money at WIOA.
Watching my retirement accounts drop large dollar amounts the last few days have been very frustrating. I just have to remind myself that there is a long term and my shares in the ROTH IRA fund will eventually recover.
Mean reversion strategies for swing trading can have relatively high success rates but when they lose, they can lose big.
While good on that front, lets please not forget that many people could lose their jobs/way of living if the recession is handled too poorly. Considering Republicans believe in austerity, they have 2 years to make such a thing worse before Democrats can even attempt to correct it.
This is bad news overall... Why the hell do it always have to be this way to not have idiots in power!
EDIT: Added the fact that Democrats will have the House, it will pressure Democrats into needing to compromise. Its simply too early for us to be considering election chances with a recession.
I don't own much in the stock market. 17 shares of IBM and 34 shares in IDU.
These survived the 2008 recession, but I'm cashing these out now. I don't want to go through that again and wait this long for them to recover. I'm seeing too many warning signs as far as student debt, rising medical insurance costs, tariffs, and an unsustainable housing market that's just giving me PTSD flashbacks to 08 all over again.
I'm a total layman, so I could be completely wrong, but my gut is telling me to get out now.
These survived the 2008 recession, but I'm cashing these out now. I don't want to go through that again and wait this long for them to recover. I'm seeing too many warning signs as far as student debt, rising medical insurance costs, tariffs, and an unsustainable housing market that's just giving me PTSD flashbacks to 08 all over again.
I'm a total layman, so I could be completely wrong, but my gut is telling me to get out now.
Every little bit helps as a consolation prize to my 401k taking a momentary hit.
So this might be the place to ask, but I'm planning a wedding within the next 18 months, I imagine this news isn't all too great for something like that, is it?
???
Do you think this will lead to you losing your job? Or are you trying to pull money out of your retirement to pay for a wedding?
What's your definition of a rebound? You're going to wait until prices become more expensive before you start buying again? I'd say the person who doesn't cancel his auto purchases is the one not worrying.
Question for Vanguard experts:
I'm in the middle of processing a tax loss harvest from VTSAX to VLCAX. It'll hopefully finalize tomorrow. I'd like to throw more money into VLCAX tonight, but that amount is less than $10K, so Vanguard is not letting me since my current VLCAX balance is $0. So I'll instead throw that money into VLACX, the investor class. Once these two transactions go through, will I have separate VLCAX and VLACX balances that I'll manually convert? Or will I perform the equivalent of 'divide by zero' and make Vanguard very upset with me?
Yeah after two days of pretty big losses I'd expect a relief rally tomorrow.
The slide has been happening for about a week now. Longer if you count the previous drop in September and the short-lived run-up as a blip.
Well...the yield curve has been suggesting an upcoming recession for quite some time. This week's reaction isn't based on the stock market in a vacuum. The question is simply whether this is the tipping point, or whether it will simply recover (like last time) and keep trucking along for a few more months or a year before things crash.
Yup. Very few people were expecting Bull for a decade. It's been at least a couple of years of nervous investors waiting for this to happen.
If you are young, think of it as buying at a discount. Corrections and volatility in the short term are nothing to worry about.
I'm sitting here looking at my monthly disposable income budget and seriously considering putting it all into my mutual funds. I'd love for the market to tank a ton more, as this still isn't that significant, although I recognize that is a selfish opinion to hold.