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Dow drops 831 points yesterday and another 546 points today [Updated 1pm PST 10/11/18]

konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
Oh my we got a tax cut stan in here lol.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brie...-say-theyve-seen-no-increase-in-take-home-pay

Almost two-thirds of Americans polled say they haven't seen an increase in their take-home pay as a result of last year's Republican tax-reform bill, according to a new survey.

A Gallup poll published Wednesday found that 64 percent of respondents said they haven't seen a raise in their take-home pay as a result of reduced federal income taxes. That finding is identical to results in Gallup's February/March poll taken shortly after the tax changes went into effect.

The poll also found that a slim majority of Americans polled — 51 percent — say the law hasn't helped their family's financial situation. Meanwhile, 26 percent of respondents said the law has helped a "little" and 12 percent said it has helped "a lot."
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But hey, let's keep giving those corporations and rich people everything!
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,927
The tax cuts technically boosted the economy because it did free up some money. The only problem was that it was so insanely inefficient it's going to do lasting damage. It's already proven that the vast majority of the money is going back to the rich. Companies have taken the majority of the savings and put them in stock buybacks again back to the rich.
 
Stinkles

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
Aselith said:
So, this why Reagan is the Republican hero? Because he managed to keep it flat?
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He actually raised taxes. And it worked.

Which is what his Fox-fueled hagiography always ignores.

So, almost started WWIII, wrecked the economy with dumb tax cuts, fixed the economy using what would be considered Democratic policies, and was seriously impaired for almost all of his second term. The version of him presented without irony today, is the same kind of paid for fiction that presents Hillary as the mistress of a child torture dungeon who has had dozens of enemies killed.
 
AntoneM

AntoneM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
716
Tom Penny said:
I'm pretty sure the 50K I lost in 3 business days is real from these imaginary Dow and Nasdaq numbers.
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Are you invested in only a few particular stocks? If so, ignore the rest because it doesn't apply.

The peak of the S&P over the last three days was about 2,893 and it closed today at 2,785. So if someone had a 50k loss over the last three days that individual had about $1.3 million in the market. Yeah, "losing" 50k sucks (not a loss until it is cashed out), but, that's not much compared to 1.3 million.
 
AntoneM

AntoneM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
716
oh, there it is. refreshing the page did nothing. I had to make another post for it to show up for me.
 
rjinaz

rjinaz

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
28,540
Phoenix
lmcfigs

lmcfigs

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,091
rjinaz said:
Hey, if we keep giving them tax breaks, eventually, they will give more money to their workers. It may take like 20 tax breaks, but, we'll get there. This is what they actually want to try and would if they were able to.
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I mean their obligation is to shareholders so.... uh... I wouldn't bet money on it. Especially since we're probably going to have a recession within the next few years.

Plus really it's probably not a good idea to have these major tax cuts while the economy is already booming anyway.
 
SapientWolf

SapientWolf

Member
Nov 6, 2017
6,565
AR Starts said:
Over 75% of people received a cut. The other 25% saw either no change or a hike. If I recall correctly 15% saw no change and maybe 10% saw a hike largely in states that have high state income tax (NY, NJ, CA). I believe both NYT and WP did a calculator.

More to your points:

1. A tax cut will save someone in a higher bracket more money than someone in one of the lowest brackets, yes. Again magnitude vs % must be considered.

2. Lots of companies gave out large bonuses or have raised wages etc. (ATT, Walmart).

3. People across the board have more buying power and are buying more stuff. I know people hate that argument but there are plenty of reports about how well retail has been doing in spite of the the decline it has seen with online. Consumer confidence is at 2000 levels. People are buying stuff and there is a marginal impact of higher demand in a market economy.
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The tax change disproportionately favors the wealthy and it's going to drive up the debt by billions, if not trillions of dollars. And it eventually works against the lower class. I'm not sure why you consider it to be such a win for the economy.
 
rjinaz

rjinaz

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
28,540
Phoenix
SapientWolf said:
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The tax change disproportionately favors the wealthy and it's going to drive up the debt by billions, if not trillions of dollars. And it eventually works against the lower class. I'm not sure why you consider it to be such a win for the economy.
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Well I suppose it's a win for the Trump economy. Once a Democrat gets in power, the debt will just be blamed on them. And round and round we go. I feel like that's what the poster actually cares about here.
 
hockeypuck

hockeypuck

Member
Oct 29, 2017
761
FWIW, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg think there will at least be a slight rebound on Friday when the major banks and others announce their third quarter earnings. But at least between now and Friday, is an excellent time to tax loss harvest. VTSAX --> VLCAX and VTIAX --> VFWAX. Done.
 
Foffy

Foffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,466
Stinkles said:
He actually raised taxes. And it worked.

Which is what his Fox-fueled hagiography always ignores.

So, almost started WWIII, wrecked the economy with dumb tax cuts, fixed the economy using what would be considered Democratic policies, and was seriously impaired for almost all of his second term. The version of him presented without irony today, is the same kind of paid for fiction that presents Hillary as the mistress of a child torture dungeon who has had dozens of enemies killed.
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Didn't he raise taxes more than once, too?
 
RiPPn

RiPPn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,562
Phoenix
AR Starts said:
Before ERA piles on with the typical "so dumb blah blah" responses.

Translation: Economic recovery since the 2016 election has accelerated and the economy is booming. As a result the Fed Reserve can now "safely" increase interest rates that they have held low over the past 9 years since the recession. The Fed started to tick rates up in 2015 but since Trump's election the economy has boomed. Now they are raising rates at faster rate because it is safe to raise rates without risking another recession. It is Trump's (and other some experts') opinion that they are raising rates too fast. Others will disagree and say the speed is appropriate. It IS entirely possible that he is right in this scenario-read some opinions and judge for yourself.

Market analysis: Raising rates has a downward effect on the stock market. That is normal. Because everything is at record highs the magnitude of the drops is larger than before. Remember to look not at magnitude but at %.

External element to consider: Rising rates downward effect on stocks makes it appear (temporarily) that the economy is not doing as well as it truly is. This could have an affect on the GOP's results in the midterms.

A few objective facts:
1. The tax cuts have been wildly successful at stimulating the economy and putting more money back in the pockets of all Americans whether or not you wanted them.
2. The business tax cuts have also been a tremendous boon for shareholders and for corp growth (hiring more people and new projects).
3. Unemployment is at incredible lows. Companies are having trouble finding talent because the market is so hot.
4. The trade disputes have had a negative effect on some businesses and a positive on others (for example good for US company that makes X material bad for US company that was buying cheap X material from China). The goal is no tariffs-Trump himself has said so. Trump has been playing a game of chicken by raising tariffs on other countries that have high tariffs on US goods. So far it has worked out in some countries (NAFTA-USMCA deal from last week) whereas in other countries we are still waiting to see the results (China).

Before anyone starts the usual stuff step back from the computer for a second and consider your own bias. If you are on ERA it seems there is a 99% chance you don't like him but that does not change the fact that the admin has been largely successful with the economy so far (trade dispute results still pending).
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1 and 2. The corporate welfare act err tax cuts has lead to stock buybacks and little else.
Tax cut triggers $437 billion explosion of stock buybacks
It's possible that second-quarter economic growth figures, due out later this month, will show companies spent more on equipment, factories and other investments that create jobs and boost wages.
However, researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve said on Monday that the tax law may not pack much of a punch because the US economy was already healthy. Washington normally stimulates the economy during a downturn, not a boom.
The San Francisco Fed said that recent research suggests the tax cuts could boost the economy very little — or perhaps not at all.
A safer bet is that the explosion of buybacks will help enrich corporate executives, whose compensation is often linked to their share price.
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3. An influx of low paying jobs is not benefiting people who already have jobs. And thanks to inflation, people are actually making 9.5% less.
National (US) Pay Trends
Real Wage Index
Since 2006, wages have risen 12.7 percent overall in the US. But when you factor in inflation, "real wages" have actually fallen 9.5 percent. In other words, the income for a typical worker today buys them less than it did in 2006. The PayScale Real Wage Index incorporates the Consumer Price Index (CPI) into The PayScale Index (which tracks nominal wages) and looks at the buying power of wages for full-time private industry workers in the U.S.
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4. Tariffs are nothing more than an invisible tax on US consumers hurting US companies in a game of chicken. And siting nafta as your example as to the success of the tariffs is laughable.
USMCA is basically just NAFTA under a new name
The main achievement of the Trump renegotiation of NAFTA is changing its name," said Libertarian National Committee Chair Nicholas Sarwark. "The rules on trade are almost exactly the same as they were. We would welcome more free trade and fewer agreements that micromanage how much of a product has to be made in each country
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Truth is this economy is a house of cards. Housing is the least affordable it's been since the crisis and interest rates aren't helping the matter. Student loan debt is at crisis levels with no relief in site. Healthcare is ballooning at alarming rates. Wages are stagnant as mentioned above. Only people benefiting from this economy are the people that don't need it and that's the rich 1%.

Edit: Stock market futures look like tomorrow is going to be another bloodbath unless something changes between now and open.
 
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FeliciaFelix

FeliciaFelix

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,778
I got shiny $30 extra dollars from the tax cut! Whoohoo! Costco membership, here I come! I may even get some pizza and live like a queen!
 
Pwnz

Pwnz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,280
Places
Phonzo said:
I really shouldnt have looked at my 401k and Broker account this morning.
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If this tiny of a dip for 20+ year investments gets you panicking then you probably should have a financial adviser handle this for you. Yeah, huge fee overhead, but they won't sell emotionally. Recessions happen. If you are diversified and a recession removes 60% valuation it shouldn't bother you because statistically within 10 years you'll make it back and more. Even with the great depression.
 

FullMetalx

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
811
Pwnz said:
If this tiny of a dip for 20+ year investments gets you panicking then you probably should have a financial adviser handle this for you. Yeah, huge fee overhead, but they won't sell emotionally. Recessions happen. If you are diversified and a recession removes 60% valuation it shouldn't bother you because statistically within 10 years you'll make it back and more. Even with the great depression.
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Watch out for this mentality. Anyone born after 1970 hasn't really experienced a generational bear market yet...imagine stocks sliding or staying flat for a 50+ year period. I think it happened between 1910-1960 (will have to see exact years)
 
EnronERA

EnronERA

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,058
Some of the panic in this thread really is something. In a couple of months we'll forget this ever happened, just like every other time the Dow takes a big beating.
 

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,826
Most of my holdings up today, though it's a roller coaster day for sure. Yesterday was brutal, especially since it followed four days of losses.
 
Pwnz

Pwnz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,280
Places
'3y Kingdom said:
Unless, of course, you live in Japan.
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I invest about 40% outside of the US. Mostly in Europe and emerging markets. I avoid Japan because their bank policy is whack. If you are outside of the US probably should invest a higher percentage outside of your country as smaller countries are inherently less diversified.

The global stock indices are incredibly predictable over the long term. Once you are within 10 years of retirement then you need to plan to mitigate recessions.

stoxGraph.png
 
henhowc

henhowc

Member
Oct 26, 2017
33,990
Los Angeles, CA
ZOONAMI said:
You must have an interesting portfolio. It's down like 2% again.
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i spoke too soon. now i'm down 0.5%. probably should have clarified i started with 10k a few months ago in robinhood just to play around. into about 8 tech related stocks. mostly buoyed by apple and amd. i haven't looked at my 403b or IRA stuff as i generally don't look at them that often as they are long term things...i'm sure i took a much bigger hit there
 

Imperfected

Member
Nov 9, 2017
11,737
MrRob said:
Just in time for the midterms. Literally, the only positive thing that Republicans had to point to was the economy.
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It probably won't impact their numbers as much as you'd like. The economy mostly impacts voting when the effects trickle all the way down to employment numbers, which takes a while.
 
lmcfigs

lmcfigs

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,091
henhowc said:
i spoke too soon. now i'm down 0.5%. probably should have clarified i started with 10k a few months ago in robinhood just to play around. into about 8 tech related stocks. mostly buoyed by apple and amd. i haven't looked at my 403b or IRA stuff as i generally don't look at them that often as they are long term things...i'm sure i took a much bigger hit there
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10k in individual stocks and it's worked out for you so far? That's pretty good.
 
TSSZNews

TSSZNews

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
663
IchigoSharingan said:
Tarriff effect on growth to be significant factor in earnings. It's supposed to make investors reconsider their portfolio. If growth slows, we're no longer going ham on growth, and putting money in value. This change will start off with a selloff, me thinks.
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The way today's been going (Dow down 500+) if that's accurate, we'd be in instant correction territory by the end of Friday.

I agree that's eventually going to be a factor along with interest rates, but I'm not quite convinced the tariffs have made their mark yet (maybe give it another one, two quarters?) and if that pans out with earnings tomorrow, maybe a good part of this wipeout is reversed.
 

IchigoSharingan

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
683
The tarriffs will impact the market by bringing an end to growth and then again when we find out how expensive it has become in terms of cost.

If PPG numbers aren't scaring you, I don't know what will.
 
Sheepinator

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,243
I don't know why people are worried about the deficit and serving the cost of it. Trump promised to eliminate the entire $19T of the deficit in 8 years, back in 2016. I'm sure the surge from the unfunded tax cuts designed to enrich himself are merely a small speed bump towards the swift elimination of that debt. After all, Trump would never lie.

Donald Trump: "We've got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt."

Bob Woodward: "How long would that take?"

Trump: "I think I could do it fairly quickly, because of the fact the numbers…"

Woodward: "What's fairly quickly?"

Trump: "Well, I would say over a period of eight years. And I'll tell you why."
 
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