His polling improved in FL post-comments. SC has little to do with that. Demographics are completely different there.
Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
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I mean it's pretty easy when the correct takes are so damn obvious
You do realize the Democratic electorate in South Carolina is largely African-American, right?
If we're at a point where parachuting someone in seems reasonable we've already lost, tbh.
Bloomberg/Steyer voters were/are mostly "undecideds" in disguise is one theory I've seen floated that seems like it has some truth to it.
You understand the reason Biden is booming in this poll are older black voters, and not white voters, right?
Cause it doesn't sound like you understand at all the driving dynamics of South Carolina in regards to the Democratic voting demographic.
It's textbook divide and conquer. It's up to both sides of the democratic party to try and mitigate this.
You know, I kind of wondered that.
But either way Christie's observations on the reasons for Warren's decline are pretty astute.
Yup. There was a LOT of presumption that she was just going to walk away with it because of course she was how is Donald fucking Trump going to *actually* win the presidency? And then well here we are.
I'd agree with this. Bloomberg/Steyer votes aren't hard votes.
It's less about losing but losing by a wide margin and having the narrative turned around on him.
Thankfully ST is right after. If Nevada and South Carolina swapped dates, we'd be in much bigger trouble.
it's up to establishment dems to wake up to the reality of the situation and get in the game instead of concern trolling about cuba
it's too late to find someone else and they will lose if they take it to the convention
Apparently not.
I admit I'm green when it comes to stuff like that. I haven't looked at polling data demographics, but I'm happy to learn though.
Galaxy brain: DNC steals the nom from Bernie, some shitty non-Bernie candidate somehow gets a narrow win, AND Trump refuses to step down.
Margins, my friends. If Sanders held Biden to a close win it would be impressive. If Biden blew Sanders out he'd be in trouble. And there are plenty of results that fall between those two.
Also LOL @ conservative white people being the reason why Biden would win South Carolina. Guess we get to have the fucking "(candidate I don't like) only wins red states!" conversation again.
In their minds they had envisioned Sanders winning all 50 states and being coronated as the rightful reshaper of the Democratic party that everyone would rally behind and ride to victory in November. Him getting blown out by some 40+ points on Saturday to Biden doesn't jive with that fantasy.
Bernie lost South Carolina 26/74 against Hillary. This is directly related to Bernie only winning 25% of the black vote nationwide in 2016.
There's a big difference between a 5% win and a 20% win. The latter dramatically increases the odds of a contested convention.
Coons as the nominee would be so funny I would actually want to see it
Southern blacks really are a different can of worms than black voters elsewhere and the polls suggest Bernie, even though he has seemingly made significant gains with black voters in general; he did better with the demo in NV than he did in 2016 even with a far more divided field, is still struggling to gain any traction with them.
Biden's going to win handily in S.C.
There will be a ton of "Biden comeback? "type stories. That'll help him in Super Tuesday.
Bloomberg's going to open his cannon on Sanders for Super Tuesday.
The next week's going to be rough for Sanders.
The ship will probably be righted a bit when California comes in (later) and he can get a bit of press on that.
There will be a ton of "Biden comeback? "type stories. That'll help him in Super Tuesday.
Bloomberg's going to open his cannon on Sanders for Super Tuesday.
The next week's going to be rough for Sanders.
The ship will probably be righted a bit when California comes in (later) and he can get a bit of press on that.
I'm really fearful of Bernie losing the primary mostly because I think it's an instant win for trump. The backlash will be worse than 2016 because of everyone feeling over confident.
I mean, there's been a few hopeful polls that... are almost definitely wrong.
I've always thought Chris Christie is smart on how politics works and he just acts like a dumb clown because that's the role that pays him $$$
This isn't Republican-lite? RE: Arguing for "freezing" (aka not increasing costs with inflation aka cutting) social safety nets.
What we've seen with the "just call him the winner and get behind him already!" stuff has seemed like insecurity much more than overconfidence.
Colbert has always come off to me as a very centrist democrat. So no big surprise here.
this is assuming Biden has the organization to translate his momentum outside of the south. There is just not that much time between the primary results and ST.
sure some support might coalesce but if that makes other candidates non viable the impact might not be as "dramatic" as you think
Someone else made the case but honestly the best thing for Bernie would be a Biden surge such that it because a de facto two way race that he convincingly wins in the end after the others drop out. Then there's zero question about a mandate and whether he should be the nominee. The split ticket's an easier win but it's a win with an asterisk depending on where he lands.
The issue is a +20% win potentially puts Biden back on track and he could win the whole thing outright. Sanders hasn't had big margins in the other states and South Carolina is worth quite a few delegates. His whole lead could potentially get erased. Really hoping it doesn't, but I get why people are nervous about the state.
I made that case earlier and I stand by it. Biden and Bloomberg cancelling each other out on Super Tuesday is a good thing for Sanders. You don't want all of that establishment vote coalescing behind Bloomberg. Biden winning big in South Carolina is a good thing. Additionally, Biden displacing Bloomberg and Sanders still persevering by a wide margin would also bode well in the long run for consolidating Democratic support behind a clear front-runner.
South Carolina is kind of this unique duck in that Biden will win it handily but Bloomberg isn't in the equation. There's no way it's not Biden's biggest win of the entire primary. He doesn't have the resources and coordination to leverage that win into momentum elsewhere at the moment - especially with Super Tuesday poised to take the win out of his sails shortly thereafter. (And I don't see anyone outside of Klobuchar and Steyer dropping out next week.)
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we've never seen this before either. supporters of a democratic candidate asking for people they don't support to drop out. it's unheard of.
Biden is winning because SC's large black population seems to like him and they're almost all registered D.
The gap between the parties is absolutely massive and even a less-liberal democrat like Biden is still liberal and light-years to the left of every republican. The notion he's a republican lite is silly. His biggest flaw is thinking republicans value the US government's ability to function, but that belief doesn't make him a Republican, because the republicans know what they're up to. The naivete is still a big flaw, but we need to remember that the fascists are the actual enemy here, not people merely proposing a few trillion dollars of new govt programs instead of $50 trillion.
Given that we're in the worst fucking timeline, since Bloomberg joined the race and because Klob and the Rat are fucking terrible, I'm glad that Biden will get the nom since Bernie will unfortunately lose. Warren is done unfortunately.
Looks like Biden has SC on lockdown at this point. Surprised at the margins in these polls, but they could be an earth shaker if accurate. This primary might just be going all the way to July.
old southern black democrats value personal loyalty over various lofty promises that have fallen short election after election
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