Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
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I mean Bloomberg becomes a factor on super tuesday, even if one drops out Bloomy will still be splitting votes.
I've never seen anything like it. 3 good tweets in a row
Yes, that's by design, going back to when the institution of slavery had to be protected.
Meanwhile, Trump was actively soliciting foreigners for money in 2016, got caught, was told to stop, didn't stop, and that was the end of it.
Like many other things: it's not illegal if you're a Republican. Especially Trump, for some fucked-up reason.
How does it benefit rural whites? Aren't they rife with drug use and suicide due to unemployment? Trump indeed campaigned by promising those people that no more factories would move overseas, but it's not like he's done much about it (He probably couldn't even if the wanted to)
Nothing but laying the groundwork for a "Bernie was cheated" narrative even if there's absolutely nothing to support that sentiment. Also, is there a single scenario in which Bernie doesn't get the nomination and guys like Shaun just acquiesce to the results?
Not the same at all. However if they do the same bad thing I am similarly critical of both. As should everyone.
If someone else gets a delegate lead heading into the convention, people like Shaun would almost certainly roll with it. If Bernie has a delegate lead and they try to fuck him over with superdelegates that is unacceptable.
That's definitely what that tweet said, yep. You figured it out
It's a shame. He's one of the best Breadtubers out there usually.
Is Biden really gonna go down as easily as the models say? I'm skeptical but hopeful. I don't see him dropping out though.
And this year superdelegates don't get to vote unless it goes to the second round. If no one has a majority ahead of the convention I expect Warren will drop out and give her delegates to Bernie.
And this year superdelegates don't get to vote unless it goes to the second round. If no one has a majority ahead of the convention I expect Warren will drop out and give her delegates to Bernie.
Missed Obama running a crime syndicate out of the WH seems like a thing fox news would've latched onto hmmm
Yes because most complaints about the trump presidency are about things that obama did too am i right
I cant really understand how someone can read this and think that Shaun is saying that Obama = Trump
Where does he say "most complaints"
You're twisting his words around. If you are saying we need to vote for someone else because of a policy Trump is enacting and they would likely continue to enact that policy, as Obama did before them, that's stupid. No where does he say that that is where "most complaints" about Trump come from.
so what's the point of his post then? trump does a billion horrible things that obama didn't do, so what's the message here?
If you stay home instead of voting against Trump, a literal criminal who escaped being removed from office only because of the cowardice of 20 senators, I am going to judge you regardless of your bs reasons
What's with people twisting themselves in pretzels to explain why Warren staying in the race is good for Sanders. All of this sounds like wishful thinking to justify her continued presence.
Occam's razor: majority of Warren voters go to Bernie. No matter how you slice it, that's what happens. Not enough go to Biden and Pete is irrelevant.
A united progressive front is what is needed, but you don't wait for the convention when it looks shifty and the people's votes have already been cast.
Buttigieg is staying in for a while now. Bloomberg hasn't gotten started. Biden sure as hell isn't leaving. The moderate lane is crowded. Bernie can get a clear plurality and win, don't kid yourselves into thinking the DNC will deprive him of the nomination if he has that plurality.
Edit: and if Warren continues to pull third or worse in the next three contests you aren't convincing me she has any sort of path forward.
Occam's razor: majority of Warren voters go to Bernie. No matter how you slice it, that's what happens. Not enough go to Biden and Pete is irrelevant.
A united progressive front is what is needed, but you don't wait for the convention when it looks shifty and the people's votes have already been cast.
Buttigieg is staying in for a while now. Bloomberg hasn't gotten started. Biden sure as hell isn't leaving. The moderate lane is crowded. Bernie can get a clear plurality and win, don't kid yourselves into thinking the DNC will deprive him of the nomination if he has that plurality.
Edit: and if Warren continues to pull third or worse in the next three contests you aren't convincing me she has any sort of path forward.
Thanks for clarifying.
The whole world is watching this and hanging onto every bit of news. Don't fail the rest of the world America!
it's already too late to say nothing because there is a heap of circumstantial evidence and also simultaneously too early because it hasn't happened yet.
also yes, "people who have that opinion are irrational and have an agenda" is not an auto win button
I don't know - i think its fine for the progressives to stay in the race. Candidates like Warren and Steyer are all parroting Bernie's policies and it validates what he's saying. He's been saying it for years. That's how I'm seeing it.
Thanks to citizens united you can donate all you want to some shadow organization that doesn't disclose funding sources.
Am I the one projecting or is he the one attacking a strawman?
This has nothing to do with anything though.
Shaun had a statement: "Dont let your main criticism of Trump be something that Obama also did" Clearly the implication here being that if you are a lib and say, you are upset that Trump is using misleading economic numbers to pretend that things are going great, I sure hope that you werent praising Obama every month when his numbers showed that "things were doing great". Otherwise, you dont really have an ideology aside from "being against Trump".
Somehow, Shugga turned this statement into "Shaun says that the Trump presidency and the Obama presidency are the same"
Do you understand how Shugga has transformed Shaun"s message?
The message is people should stop using those specific points as reasons you MUST vote blue no matter who, and that if you want a candidate who would actually change those things, you should fucking nominate one. That simple.
So what happens to every horrible thing trump does/has been doing but obama didn't do? Do these not matter at all for some obscure reason?
At times like these I am reminded of all the Iranian Socialists, Communists and academics that were too busy fighting amongst themselves as the theocrats consolidated power and repressed all of them within a decade.
I fail to see the point of preemptively shutting down those irrelevant complaints when there are dozens if not hundreds of valid complaints about the trump presidency.
They can parrot his policies... as surrogates. AOC stumping for Bernie has been good for him, a wholehearted Warren endorsement will be good for him as well. She doesn't need to act as an albatross once the actual voting starts.
Mind, I do see the value of having Warren there for the next couple of debates. I personally don't think she should drop before March, her being there won't matter for the next three states. But if she continues to place third or worse in the Feb contests, I hope she reads the writing on the wall and leaves before Super Tuesday. She has no path in that scenario, plain and simple.
That's my opinion.
Nobody's criticism of Trump is 1:1 what Obama did the entire premise is stupid and self destructive
The point is to not shame people for being disillusioned with centrist dem candidates who perpetuated some of the same crimes Trump continues to. Obviously not all! Trump is the worst president in modern history! But on some level you have to give people someone to vote for, not just someone to vote against. Or did we not learn that with Hillary.
In short:
IMO the best model is 538 and they don't have biden plummeting just yet. He has lost odds and bernie has massively gained though. That will shift even more if bernie pulls ahead in Iowa and if Biden finishes 4th in NH it'll start to see a massive shift.
I think it's saying that if you don't blindly support the party that is actively trying to screw over their best candidate, then you might as well be a Trump supporter.
Idk, I don't agree w it though.
No vote count shenanigans and broken apps made by shady hacks with financial and/or historical links with specific candidates would be a start. That's not too much to ask I feel. Well, in my country it isn't anyway, but I know the US has a long tradition of poorly handling elections.
I've expressed a somewhat similar position before in this thread, but here goes: it's one thing to say "I think/don't think there is a conspiracy", and another to say "I think there are suspicious aspects to this situation; they might not be proof of anything, and they might not be intentional, but there are a number of them, and they raise some questions".
Stating something along the lines of "Bernie is definitely getting fucked over by the DNC, wake up sheeple", at this point, would be too much based on the current evidence. But, conversely, acting like the whole Shadow Inc. fuckery is all fine and there cannot possibly any grounds for thinking that there might be something fishy going on is being willfully naive. Maybe it's all just good old incompetence, carelessness and nepotism - I'm personally leaning towards that option right now, like Sam Seder said on MSNBC the other day -, but I'm not going to facepalm at someone for thinking, among other things, that Buttigieg having invested in the development of the app is suspish' as hell. Just like people can be too quick to jump to conspiracy theories, so too can other people be too quick to dismiss any doubts as conspiracy theories.
The sentiment of general fuckery hasn't materialized out of thin air. There is definitely smoke; all we need to know now is the nature, cause and aim - if any - of the fire. We may never know that, but hopefully we'll learn the truth eventually.
To get back to your question and my first point: if the Iowa app hadn't been a thing, Buttigieg hadn't jumped the gun about the results, and the results had been published in full instead of peacemeal at arbitrary intervals with little communication, few people would have batted an eye, even if Buttigieg eked out a win. And again, these are all incredibly reasonable conditions to ask in a democracy about to elect its 46th president. At the very least, this is a tremendous display of gross incompetence.
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Well friend, thats not really what I asked you.
If the premise is stupid then how are there are things that ive seen libs criticize of Trump that Obama also did, in some ways. Deportations, parading around economic numbers that are dubious at best, Endless wars, etc. Do the people that Ive seen just not exist? Are we just in a void?
Surely, we can agree that Obama made mistakes that Trump also did. Not exactly the same of course and this doesnt really mean that Obama = Trump in all senses. That would be a stupid point and hey, luckily for us, no one is making that point! The statement here, what Shaun said, is really not that complex:
"If you are going to complain about Trump"s immigration record in x y and z, then I hope that you werent ok with x y and z if Obama did it".
Thats it.
Is this a betrayal of the Democratic Party?
Is this saying in any way that Obama was basically Trump?
Because if it does, I would love it if you explained it to me.
So the missing 3% are from satellite caucuses? So Sanders will probably win the popular vote although all the media said he surprisingly lost against Buttigieg?
This does not reflect well on the Democrats.
This does not reflect well on the Democrats.
It's been an ugly ugly week. If Bernie DOES pull ahead and snag a win here, it'll ultimately be a very big win for bernie.
The projected win for pete has him surging with the moderate crowd right now, stealing votes from Biden. If this bumps Biden to 4th in NH that's rough for him. Bernie will have won Iowa and NH and pete will be stealing biden votes going into nevada. If bernie sweeps all 3 and pete is still stealing votes it's a wrap.
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