Honestly, from a resource allocation/emission mitigation standpoint, our current EV rollout strategy makes no sense. There aren't enough batteries to go around. With the batteries required to make one EV and reduce one person's tailpipe emissions by 100%, you could make ten plug-in hybrids and reduce ten people's tailpipe emissions by 90%, while we build out the infrastructure for full EVs. Heck, you could use those same batteries to make
one hundred standard hybrids and reduce 100 people's tailpipe emissions by 20-30%, which would arguably be even better. Like, that is not an exaggeration, these are roughly the amounts of battery each type of these vehicle requires. But that's not as
sexy as jumping to pure EVs, as the one early adopter getting to buy a Tesla.
People knock on Toyota for being late to the whole EV thing but (doomed FCEV initiative aside) their strategy of focusing on hybridizing everything, and then moving to plug-in hybrids, and then moving to EVs is the most pragmatic approach if you actually care about reducing the most emissions possible across the most people.
People want hybrids but there just aren't enough batteries for them. Ford launched the Maverick Hybrid as the base engine, cheaper than the more powerful but less efficient turbo engine. Everybody wanted the hybrid and there weren't enough to go around. The next year they raised the price of the hybrid so it was the same price as the turbo engine. Everybody wanted the hybrid and there wasn't enough to go around. On the new model year, the hybrid engine is now a premium option, more expensive than the turbo engine, and I expect there still won't be enough to go around, even though the price of that base hybrid Maverick will have gone up by something like 25% across just two model years. Meanwhile, Ford is putting a ton of batteries into Mustang Mach-Es…and now
stories are starting to come out about those vehicles languishing on dealer lots, now that the finite wave of early EV adopters have an over-abundance of choice.
Meanwhile, the next Toyota Camry is set to be hybrid-only, which is going to have a huge positive impact — the Camry is still an enormously popular vehicle. The Toyota Avalon's replacement, the Crown, is now hybrid-only. The Toyota Sequoia full-size SUV is now hybrid-only. The Toyota Sienna minivan is now hybrid-only. The Toyota Venza crossover is now hybrid-only. On the Lexus side of things, the Lexus UX small crossover is now hybrid-only. All of this adds up to a meaningful reduction in tailpipe emissions without really requiring consumers to learn new behavior or honestly give up much of anything. And for consumers interested in learning new behavior, Toyota has started to introduce more and more plug-in hybrid vehicles too.
I don't think Toyota gets as much credit as they deserve for their pragmatic approach. A lot of times EV people are snobbish toward hybrids and plug-in hybrids. They're just "greenwashing" icky ICE vehicles. They're just half measures. But when it comes to reducing emissions, half measures
matter. And when it comes to changing consumer behavior, gentle "half measures" are
essential. There are a lot of people who don't see how an EV could fit in their life but they're open to a plug-in hybrid. And maybe after owning that plug-in hybrid for a while they realize that they really don't ever exceed the EV range in their daily driving, and they're fine with their next car being an EV.
Plug-in hybrids are EVs with a backup plan. And a lot of people who aren't EV tech enthusiast early adopter types
really want that back-up plan. If people want EVs to become virtually universal, they should
applaud companies like Toyota and Stellantis for their plug-in hybrid initiatives, because those companies are building a bridge for many buyers who likely wouldn't otherwise consider making the leap to EV ownership.