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Russia has begun a full-scale invasion in Ukraine [READ STAFF POSTS]

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gozu

gozu

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,348
America


90 second extract of Zelenskyy's new address where you can see:

Zelenskyy rightly pointing out, as I did a few posts ago, that the west's help is not commensurate with the genocide ongoing in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy getting hoarse asking for the same things over and over again and never getting most of it: "If there is not real supply of the necessary weapons that we have asked for many times, many ukrainians will die [for no good reason]"

Brackets are unspoken by Zelenskyy but that's what I would be thinking.

It's deeply saddening and upsetting that some people in power just can't learn, even when lessons are written in the blood of children. This war moves fast and we're moving slow as fuck and taking half measures...at best.
 
Antrax

Antrax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,287
fragamemnon said:
This is why IMO the request for a route to air superiority from the Ukraine armed forces isn't so far fetched. Eventually they will want to break the stalemate and will need a axis of concentrating power beyond what they have. Same reasoning applies to all the requests for MLRS, self-propelled artillery, and main battle tanks.
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I think aircraft are still on the table, but Ukraine wasn't really using their own stuff to the fullest extent possible, so there wasn't really much of a point in sending MiGs and things like that a few weeks ago. There was the potential that they'd just be captured if Kyiv fell.

If Ukraine can pitch the West on the sorties they want to run but can't without additional aircraft, then they'll get it. But right now, the main thing is ground supplies to prevent encirclement.

Culex said:
This is basically the USA saying they will never stop supplying Ukraine with monetary/military aid until Russia folds.
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I think this is definitely the position the West overall is taking here. By all accounts, Russia had one of the greatest militaries in the world 2 months ago. And in this moment, every single rocket and drone and rifle you send to Ukraine gets to be used with no reservation against that military, cutting it down tank by tank. There will be projections of Russian military losses based on various durations of the conflict, and cynically, there will be a few projections that involve a longer war but more losses for Russia.

Places like Afghanistan and Syria have been proxy wars between superpowers before, where both sides stoked the conflict to get it going. Here, this is entirely on Russia. They stepped into a proxy war with the West all on their own. And the West is going to send as many military supplies as they can to take a huge chunk out of the Russian military apparatus.
 
ScoobsJoestar

ScoobsJoestar

Member
May 30, 2019
4,071
Urfe said:
Apologies if asking ignorant questions is frowned upon, but do we know what the chances of Belarus moving towards the West due to this conflict is? Do people think that would need a regime change?
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Belarus right now will not move away from Russia without a regime change. Military intervention (more than it has already done) in the war might prove to be unpopular enough that they might risk the military clashing with the president. Even then, the regime might not want to back the west immediately because of the possibility of being invaded by Russia which...well, yeah. It's a complicated situation. Belarus was in a tricky position before, but now with Russia more or less having nothing to lose as far as invading countries go - it's really dangerous. They would be theoretically safe for a short period of time after this war since Russia will be exhausted, but that is not permanent safety.

Basically yes, there is a world in which Lukashenko fucks up enough that the military turns back on him. But even then, you have to imagine what his replacement would do. A more neutral approach to Russia is possible, but given their geographical location alone (and that's not even touching on economics) it would be very difficult for them to move toward the west. Even moving away from Russia by a little bit would be extremely difficult and dangerous.

(I'm more than open for corrections here if someone has a different read of the situation)
 
Mavis

Mavis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,476
Blue Mountains
Dekuman said:
As possibility, with Putin you don't rule anything out.
A lot of interviews of the Russian public who are pro Putin and War mention Poland by name after Ukraine. And you know who is feeding them that, it's Putin's propaganda machine. And they specificlaly talk about going after Poland and the Baltics "who hate us" after Ukraine.

Poland is seen as the nexus of anti-Russian and previously anti-soviet resistance in Europe. I think if they can't nuke Ukraine or have already done so, they will risk nuking Poland next. followed by the Baltics.

People who think it's impossible are in lala land.
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Cut this shite out, read the staff posts. Putin will not nuke or invade Poland, a nuke over Poland would see like for like retaliation as it's both a NATO and EU country. Putin is not an idiot, he knows his family, his children and his grandchildren will be wiped out if he pulls this shit. If they invade? Then in a conventional war the EU would piss all over him, easily. Attacking Poland is nothing like attacking Ukraine. Could he do it in Ukraine? Possibly, but then he has to deal with the Chinese who have an agreement to protect Ukraine in case of Nuclear attack. No they won't go Nuking Russia but they will pull all the way back from supporting Russia financially or through arms. No it's not impossible, but it's so unlikely as to be very close to it.
 
Mentalist

Mentalist

Member
Mar 14, 2019
18,034
ScoobsJoestar said:
Belarus right now will not move away from Russia without a regime change. Military intervention (more than it has already done) in the war might prove to be unpopular enough that they might risk the military clashing with the president. Even then, the regime might not want to back the west immediately because of the possibility of being invaded by Russia which...well, yeah. It's a complicated situation. Belarus was in a tricky position before, but now with Russia more or less having nothing to lose as far as invading countries go - it's really dangerous. They would be theoretically safe for a short period of time after this war since Russia will be exhausted, but that is not permanent safety.

Basically yes, there is a world in which Lukashenko fucks up enough that the military turns back on him. But even then, you have to imagine what his replacement would do. A more neutral approach to Russia is possible, but given their geographical location alone (and that's not even touching on economics) it would be very difficult for them to move toward the west. Even moving away from Russia by a little bit would be extremely difficult and dangerous.

(I'm more than open for corrections here if someone has a different read of the situation)
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I mean, if Russia was unable to project its power onto Belarus, there's already a legitimate president-in-exile since 2020. If there was a military coup, they could just install Tikhanovskaya
 
Dekuman

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
Mavis said:
Cut this shite out, read the staff posts. Putin will not nuke or invade Poland, a nuke over Poland would see like for like retaliation as it's both a NATO and EU country. Putin is not an idiot, he knows his family, his children and his grandchildren will be wiped out if he pulls this shit. If they invade? Then in a conventional war the EU would piss all over him, easily. Attacking Poland is nothing like attacking Ukraine. Could he do it in Ukraine? Possibly, but then he has to deal with the Chinese who have an agreement to protect Ukraine in case of Nuclear attack. No they won't go Nuking Russia but they will pull all the way back from supporting Russia financially or through arms. No it's not impossible, but it's so unlikely as to be very close to it.
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My post was in response to an interview of Mesha Gessen who said it's a possibility. I didn't say it would happen, but ruling anything out is stupid and saying Putin wouldn't do something is also equally as stupid.

If I wanted to fearmonger I could say a lot more. in this context its totally within bounds as the context is tactical not strategic weapons.
 
antonz

antonz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,309
New Lend Lease Bill is good stuff if the right decisions are made. The War is not going to end overnight so we should be training batches of Ukranian forces in NATO tech. Send improved AA Systems, Better Artillery etc. Stuff that while maybe more advanced than anything fielded by the Russians and Ukrainians is not stuff that is rocket science. Modern US artillery etc. operates just like older Soviet stuff.
 
CrazyDude

CrazyDude

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,745
It would be hard for Russia to justify using Nukes in Ukraine and it would be hard for governments sympathetic to Russia, like China, to support them after that. China can't really spin a nuke country using nuke on a non nuke country.
 
Tovarisc

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,440
FIN
Do we know what Ukraine's fuel supply is looking like now that Russia has been destroying quite a bit of their larger storage capability?
 
JayC3

JayC3

bork bork
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
3,857
The original poster who started the nuke conversation already edited that part out. Replying to that conversation chain hours after that just perpetuates the nuke conversation, so let's all just move on and get back on topic. Thanks.
 
greepoman

greepoman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,962
Wouldn't it be really stupid to nuke a country right next to yourself anyway? Bad luck with weathers patterns and you could easily have a lot of nuclear fallout drift into your country.
 
Coyote Starrk

Coyote Starrk

The Fallen
Oct 30, 2017
53,168
migrane_always_sunny.gif
 
antonz

antonz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,309
Poland has now put in an order to buy 250 Abram's. Be interesting to see if this will lead to Poland sending some of their older Soviet stuff over the border. Poland has around 500 T-72 of varying upgrades/lack of upgrades. Ukraine clearly has a better understanding of Tank conflict and their vulnerabilities compared to Russia so even less upgraded T-72s would help. Enable Ukraine to keep sending the best stuff forward while reinforcing the rear with the older stuff.
 
Lidl

Lidl

Member
Dec 12, 2017
2,568
antonz said:
Poland has now put in an order to buy 250 Abhram's. Be interesting to see if this will lead to Poland sending some of their older Soviet stuff over the border. Poland has around 500 T-72 of varying upgrades/lack of upgrades. Ukraine clearly has a better understanding of Tank conflict and their vulnerabilities compared to Russia so even less upgraded T-72s would help. Enable Ukraine to keep sending the best stuff forward while reinforcing the rear with the older stuff.
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Exactly what I though as well. The really old T-72s like we've seen coming from CZE can stay in the rear and at least get gradual ERA upgrades while the better equipped UA tanks currently idling in the west could go to the front.
 
Avitus

Avitus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,922
First U.S. weapon system I want to see go to Ukraine is HIMARS MLRS systems. Cheap, portable, truck based, can fire advanced long range Tochka-style missiles that the U.S. can resupply if necessary. Big bang for the logistical buck. M777 and surplus M109 Paladins would be next. Ukraine has used their domestic guided artillery shells to good effect, training them on Excalibur shouldn't be that hard.

Ukraine needs our surplus MRAPs, especially anything with a CROWS system. These are being given away to law enforcement, they'd be better used overseas.
 
antonz

antonz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,309
The Abrams Purchase gives Poland 4 battalions worth of Abrams along side its already 4 battalions worth of Leopards. Poland intends to keep 11 battalions active so 3 battalions worth of 72s. So in theory they should have 200+ available with the right guarantees made if they are all in combat capable status of course. I think the initial Abrams delivery is only going to be around 30 this year since they are buying the latest model SEPV3 but they have asked if deliveries could be acclerated.
HIMARS and hell even the older Avenger systems would be useful. Avengers could be stationed all over the wilderness for anti-air and are highly mobile so after they do their job they can reposition before Russia could even dream of retaliation.
 
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Avitus

Avitus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,922
antonz said:
The Abrams Purchase gives Poland 4 battalions worth of Abrams along side its already 4 battalions worth of Leopards. Poland intends to keep 11 battalions active so 3 battalions worth of 72s. So in theory they should have 200+ available with the right guarantees made if they are all in combat capable status of course. I think the initial Abrams delivery is only going to be around 30 this year since they are buying the latest model SEPV3 but they have asked if deliveries could be acclerated.
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I believe the plan floated at one point is to ship stored M1A1s over so they can stand up those Battalions now and train, potentially releasing all T-72s. Obviously if they get 3+ battalions worth of M1A1s someone is going to make money at some point to modernize them. Two types of MBT is already too many as well, never mind 3.
 
sangreal

sangreal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,890
Avitus said:
I believe the plan floated at one point is to ship stored M1A1s over so they can stand up those Battalions now and train, potentially releasing all T-72s. Obviously if they get 3+ battalions worth of M1A1s someone is going to make money at some point to modernize them. Two types of MBT is already too many as well, never mind 3.
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I believe they are only getting 28 SEP v2s for training. The 250 SEP v3s are coming over next few years until 2026

defence24.com

Poland Signs for Abrams tanks for $4,7 bn

Head of the Polish Ministry of Defence, Mariusz Błaszczak, signed a Letter of Offer and Acceptance concerning 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 MBTs. The agreement is worth around 4.75 bn. dollars and this is the net amount. The first 28 vehicles coming from the US Army stock would be handed off to the...
defence24.com defence24.com
 
Kwigo

Kwigo

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
8,036
Do we have any new information on what's going on inside Russia during the last few weeks?
 
Avitus

Avitus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,922
sangreal said:
I believe they are only getting 28 SEP v2s for training. The 250 SEP v3s are coming over next few years until 2026
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The U.S. has thousands of Abrams in storage that are never going to be used. The idea would be to backfill any T-72s released to Ukraine for free or near to it, with an eye towards making FMS money on eventual modernization. Now that the deal for modern production (really just modernization of existing hulls) has been signed and Poland will absolutely operate the Abrams, they can potentially negotiate this 'trade' in the coming months.
 
sangreal

sangreal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,890
Avitus said:
The U.S. has thousands of Abrams in storage that are never going to be used. The idea would be to backfill any T-72s released to Ukraine for free or near to it, with an eye towards making FMS money on eventual modernization. Now that the deal for modern production (really just modernization of existing hulls) has been signed and Poland will absolutely operate the Abrams, they can potentially negotiate this 'trade' in the coming months.
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Sure, I get all that, I just meant as part of this specific deal. You mentioned training, so my mind jumped to the training portion of this deal, but I do remember now the story you're referring to about the M1A1s wasting away in storage that were being considered for exchanging with older soviet tanks
 
KingSnake

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,003
The focus now is on the area around Izyum, but I think equally important are the fights around Kherson and south of Zaporizhzhia. If Ukrainians manage to push the Russians further on either or both of these fronts that will threaten the supply lines from Crimea and the circling of Donbas troops has no chance of happening even if Russian manage to advance a bit more south of Izyum. More so, the Russian south of Izyum might find themselves at some point in the same position as on the Northern front with the supply lines too stretched and vulnerable.
 
Haunted

Haunted

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
2,737
Rocket8 said:
www.spiegel.de

Possible Evidence of Russian Atrocities: German Intelligence Intercepts Radio Traffic Discussing the Murder of Civilians in Bucha

The images of the murdered civilians in Bucha shocked the world. DER SPIEGEL has learned that German intelligence intercepted radio traffic from suspected perpetrators. It appears that such atrocities were part of the strategy of Putin's army.
www.spiegel.de www.spiegel.de
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That's huge.

This is the kind of evidence needed to actually try the war criminals in court later.

I'm sure other intelligence services than the BND will corroborate this as well. They can't get away with this.
 
Neo C.

Neo C.

Member
Nov 9, 2017
3,004
An Ukrainian woman is now living with me. I hope she can relax a little bit after all she has gone through.
 
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