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Playstation 4 is at 100 million. Where will it end up?
- Thread starter Hieroph
- Start date
125 to 130 million seems most realistic
I think they will scrap Pro and go for an ultra low cost PS4 Slim 7nm at 199 to get into more homes
I think they will scrap Pro and go for an ultra low cost PS4 Slim 7nm at 199 to get into more homes
There is no way it stop at 130
it's ending this year at 110
With 250$ cut , tlou2 and some other game next year and if ps5 release end of year it will finish 2020 at 125M
it will sell easily until 2022 mostly if ps5 is BC. And can cut its price 1-2 more times.
140-150M
it's ending this year at 110
With 250$ cut , tlou2 and some other game next year and if ps5 release end of year it will finish 2020 at 125M
it will sell easily until 2022 mostly if ps5 is BC. And can cut its price 1-2 more times.
140-150M
140-150m.
With full BC giving people a reason to later upgrade to PS5, and services like PS+ and PS Now bringing in money after the console has sold there is every reason for Sony to look to keep the PS4 alive for long after the PS5 has launched.
I wouldn't be surprised if we get a super budget model next year like with the PS3.
With full BC giving people a reason to later upgrade to PS5, and services like PS+ and PS Now bringing in money after the console has sold there is every reason for Sony to look to keep the PS4 alive for long after the PS5 has launched.
I wouldn't be surprised if we get a super budget model next year like with the PS3.
anywhere between 125 and 140 million.
I have this fantasy that Dreams becomes a massive hit and ignites even more PS4 sales and justifies a follow-up on PS5.
I have this fantasy that Dreams becomes a massive hit and ignites even more PS4 sales and justifies a follow-up on PS5.
Shit ton of low balling in here. 140mil is easily on table. People buying PS4 in 2020 aren't interested in PS5. Different market, plus 3 big exclusives left WITH a FF7 remake? And possible $99-$149 holiday bundles down the line? PS4 can easily be the new king IF sony chooses to push for it. PS3 is a bad example because sales were dead, too expensive and all focus was on PS4. I don't think they will do this with PS5.
Its better to be pleasantly surprised and potentially lowball than to overestimate and get disappointed(although i dont think 130 is lowballing)
I'd say about 130 million. They are projecting 15m for this fiscal year, which will be surpassed I think. The remaining it should be able to hit leading up to PS5 and after.
I see it more in the 130-135M range but we're essentially agreeing either way.
The PS4 is more healthy relative to where PS3 was, so that will allow it to push a bit further.
I'd say around 130 Million. Especially if there is a Gravity Rush 3 ;-_-; (poor attempt at a crying face)
I don't think PS3 comparisons really apply here, as others have said, PS4 is in a way better place.
Then...
Then...
- People were dying for a better controller than the DS3
- Multiplat Devs wanted to get off Cell and onto a more homogenous console development landscape
- Complex proprietary hardware made reducing the cost of the hardware difficult
- No BC meant buying games for the PS3 was "investing" in a dying platform. Plus the rise of remasters further incentivized people to migrate.
- DS4 (build/battery issues aside) is in a good place, and will likely be forwards compatible on the PS5
- Everything is x86 now, so no real need to stop developing for one platform at the exclusion of the other.
- Cheaper commodity hardware and simplified architecture mean $199 or even lower are in the cards for PS4. I
- Full BC means people don't have to stop buying PS4 games when they migrate, which means plenty of publishers will probably just keep releasing PS4 games with "upgrades" for next gen
OP
OP
Agreed. I have a hard time seeing the PS4 stop at 120 million. That's why I put it in as the absolute minimum, at this point it's at the edge of possibility. It would really require Sony doing a Nintendo Wii and deliberately killing off the system prematurely. But what I think will happen is that PS4 will blast through 120 million and keep going. 130 million and up is the more realistic range based on where we are now, and with the expectation that Sony will want to keep the PS4 going alongside PS5.
You should be able to change your vote if you want to.
I think people are underestimating how many casual consumers aren't chomping at the bit to drop $400-$500 on a new console just because it's the latest version of a current console, and can play their old games. As always, hardcore gamers and early adopters will be flocking to the PS5 during that first year or so of release.
The casual consumers that haven't purchased a PS4 yet (and there are still plenty, because not everyone can spend over $300 on stuff), so if they aggressively price the PS4 (like sub $200), that's going to entice a lot of casuals. I know when I couldn't afford to buy game systems at launch, or because they were too expensive, $200 and less was the sweet spot for me. I could usually afford the console, and a few of the must have classics that were generally heavily discounted at that time (PS Classics were a godsend to my broke ass).
And then those casuals will buy into the PS5 when it hits their sweetspot, because they know their PS4 library will carry over to the new machine.
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Yup, exactly my reasoning - I totally agree. And another thing people seem to be forgetting (can't blame them, they're up to date with everything) is that people who are just entering the current generation have an almost embarrassingly huge amount of games to choose from, that they've missed out on and that they can find for dirt cheap.
Uncharted 4? 10 bucks. Horizon? 12 bucks. The Witcher 3? Could find that for 13 bucks as well.
Heck, and I'm not even talking about getting them used either!
They have an entire generation's worth of games to play. Waiting out is arguably smarter too... But I just can't - Getting a PS5 on launch day! 😊
If Sony hits their forecast (and they've hit it or surpassed it every time without even dropping to $200) they'll be at ~112M. No way do they somehow sell less than 8M between 2020 and beyond.
Yeah, I meant to say that I agreed with the post I was quoting. lol. But that's exactly how I used to get through console generations on a limited gaming budget. Waited until the console fell in price to my affordable range, then cleaned up on all of the classics that were between $10-$20 by that point. Generally, it was enough to keep me more than occupied well into the life cycle of the latest console, where I'd rinse and repeat. I think the PS3 and PS4 eras were the only two eras where I was able to afford the console during their first years (about 6 months after launch for PS3, and i got my PS4 on launch day).
I've love to see them slash the Ps4 Pro to like $249 late next year and drop the base Sku, market it as a budget 4k machine to its looming big brother PS5. Doubt you'd see anything remotely close to that in reality. I don't think its breaking 130m without some very aggressive pricing once PS5 hits. All in all, between hardware sales, psn subs, quality exclusives and bringing VR to the console market, it's been a pretty damn good generation for Sony overall.
OP
OP
When Sony gets the PS4 down to $199 permanently, it's going to move a lot of units. Anecdotally, I've spoken to people who don't have a PS4 yet but might just skip straight to PS5, but also people who don't have a PS4 yet and want to get one for the weirdest reasons, like the FF8 remaster. Not the FF7 remake, the FF8 remaster. So there are still all kinds of people eyeing the PS4. Some might get the PS5 instead, but some are finally getting around to buying a PS4 when they can get it on the cheap without a huge hassle, and don't care about the PS5 at what will be a premium price point.
I don't think PS2 sales are likely, but what you're describing as a "laughable prospect" is pretty much exactly what the PSone and PS2 did.
When the PS2 launched the PSone was at around 70m sales. It sold another ~30m after the launch of the PS2. It was actually the second-best-selling console of that entire generation, after the PS2.
Near the end of 2005 the PS2 was in approximately the same position as the PS4 is now - sitting on ~100m sales with a successor about a year away. To reach its eventual total, Sony had to sell half of what they'd sold in the past 5.5 years (of record-breaking sales).
I'd agree if you said that the PS4 didn't seem likely to repeat that, but when two out of Sony's three previous consoles had long-tail sales totalling ~33% of their eventual sales, I don't think that anyone's suggestion that the same might happen with the PS4 is "laughable".
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It was at around 41 million at the beginning of the year.
Microsoft really doesn't like sharing Xbox One hardware sales, so we basically have just a lot of guesswork. (If somebody has a fresher estimate, please share.)
The general impression is that XBO sales have been mostly sluggish outside US, and not that hot in the US either, so it looks like the PS4 to XBO ratio is closing in on 5:2 worldwide.
Feel like 120 million or so is the ceiling for PS4 with PS5 out in less than a year. Don't think there is the kind of market for older systems like there was for PS1 or PS2, regardless of price, for consoles to have those kinds of tails anymore.
