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XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,828
My father is a doctor who primarily works with blood-related diseases. He's still gonna be on the COVID-19 response team if/when things get hairy. Italy scares the hell out of him.

He speculates part of the reason things have gotten so bad there is because Italy's culture is so close-knit and touchy-feely. Which... Actually makes a lot of sense. Social distancing is easier in an environment like South Korea or Germany where personal space is already at a maximum and harder in an environment where people are constantly hugging, kissing, etc. That bodes decently for the United States, but not for Argentina. I hope to god things don't get too bad down there.
I think he makes a really important observation. Compare the current situations in Japan and Italy when it comes to the elderly and the link seems reasonable.
 

DickGrayson

Alt Account
Member
Jan 30, 2020
941
I have been reading stories for a over a month now about in just a few days the testing capacity is going to meet demand, and soon, even people who are not rich and famous will be able to get tested.
We're always two days of fixing this shit, and meanwhile, I'm in Seattle, and it's pretty much impossible to get tested. Nursing home workers can't get tested here.

I'll believe it when I see it. So far, it has been a colossal failure, and it look like cities are kinda giving up on even trying.

Was at the hospital today with my wife (pregnancy check up, deemed necessary by Doc) and the staff was talking about how they have to turn away folks who want tests even if they have clear symptoms because they simply don't have enough and have to ration based on most vulnerable.

Where are all these mythical tests?
 

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
I know there are several immigrants to the US on era and I've been surprised at the fact that USCIS is being partially flexible right now. I'm already naturalized but they still send the odd text alert because I'm signed up to their e-filing Service for my GOES/Global Entry card and they've been relatively proactive in announcing flexibility for folks who owe documents or signatures. I'd assumed that pending immigration would be more negatively affected- although I'm positive there'll also be horror stories emerging at this scale of event.

And I've been super impressed by Alaska Airlines customer service- they followed up twice personally to help me cancel and refund a complicated trip.
 

Toxi

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
17,552
It's not genetics, ffs. wtf am I reading

Italy was first. So least prepared.
That's why I said it feels like hopeful speculation. The person who I heard it from is Italian-Argentino, so it's not like it's coming from a place of racism. People are just spitballing ideas.

Italy was first, but the spread of the disease there has not matched many other nations even when accounting for the time lag. There's definitely other stuff at play.
 

RolandGunner

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,544
Diamond Princess data show it's the italy numbers that are skewed (unknown infected population probably), not china.

There's no way of knowing this but compare Italy and even Washington in the US and it really seems like COVID mutated into a more lethal strain as it migrated to Europe. In Washington the outbreak started in senior centers and we aren't seeing the kind of spread that European countries have.

 

Stuggernaut

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,968
Seattle, WA, USA
I feel bad for discrimination of Chinese around all of this. People can be assholes sometimes (all the time).

I understand wanting to acknowledge where the virus originated, but labeling it as such just points the blame finger little too broadly at China. Yes, wet markets there are a HUGE problem, and I am hopeful the severity of this outbreak might finally lead to permanent bans on some level. But let's not fool ourselves, there are other places in the world doing similar practices and it is only a matter of time before those areas risk growing in size to the point that a virus outbreak is possible, especially is the China markets vanish.

We need a full out ban, world wide, of this kind of market and some sort of help for countries that economically rely on it so heavily. Yes China markets in particular are a huge problem based on size and popularity, and SHOULD be shut down or pressured to be shut down by the International community. But not JUST China...everywhere (for the reason I stated above).

Sorry... done venting :P
 

elty

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,957
It's unclear. That's what's so scary about Italy. We don't know what makes it unusual.

Some things I've heard...
  • Early transmission. Northern Italy has a lot of Chinese trade, and the first case was a businessman coming from China IIRC. This is the scariest factor because it suggests we will see the same thing happen in other places.
I think I have read that guy was tested negative. So at this moment they still have no clue how patient 1 got it.
 

mario_O

Member
Nov 15, 2017
2,755
I have a bad feeling that this is worse than what China led us to believe.
Either that or: the 20.000 doctors that were sent from all over the Country to Wuhan; the mega hospital they built; the differences in demographics. I don't know what to believe, but if China's numbers are real, they did an incredible job.
 

CampFreddie

A King's Landing
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,982
People need to understand one thing:
The vast majority of Americans will get Covid-19.
A vaccine is at least 1 year away and the virus will stay and spread until a vaccine is available.

The only thing that is important now is to slow the spread of the virus so the healthcare system can cope.
But in order to do that, you need to know where the virus is and that means you need to test. Not just people will symptoms, because most infected don't have symptoms. You need to test everyone.

The bolded statements are mutually exclusive. 300 million people cannot get a virus with >5% hospitalisation within 1-2 years without the health system collapsing many times over,.
 

Shoeless

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,018
if trump says one more time "i wish china would have told us earlier, and warn us" im going to punch my TV screen lol SMH

The double-think for supporters must be some AMAZING mental gymnastics and I'd love to see the brainwave patterns. To simultaneously hold "He knew it was a pandemic before it was a pandemic" with "China should have warned us earlier, we were caught off guard because of the foreigners" and not see how these ideas totally contradict each other is some Next-Level brainwashing.
 

Juturna

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,834
I have a friend who hasn't been able to be tested but had awful diarrhea for over a week and was told he likely has it and is in isolation...also now difficult breathing...keep an eye on it and be safe

Thanks for the info. I'm already on Hydroxychloroquinine for RA, so hopefully that helps in some way if I do infact happen to be infected.
 

SOBOSLDR

Member
Nov 27, 2017
566
I think the reason China was able to control it was that they built those additional hospitals and brought in 40,000 extra healthcare people. Plus they locked it down harder, swifter, and earlier in the outbreak then Italy has done. I also would expect China's extensive contact tracing to be much better by using GPS and WeChat history, much like SK has used texts. Add in to that the extensive and mandatory mask usage everywhere. China also has more recent history of fighting this style of virus and in pandemic planning, with there SARS, and Bird Flu history.

This thing is gonna ravage USA and Europe, the lockdowns are half hearted there are no masks and the governments can act the same as they can in China. Already you have big US cities giving up on testing and contact tracing, it's not gonna be pretty, hopefully the USA population density should help.
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,765
washing-hands-source.jpg
Follow up question... did you just lie to me?
 

Deleted member 9932

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,711
There's no way of knowing this but compare Italy and even Washington in the US and it really seems like COVID mutated into a more lethal strain as it migrated to Europe. In Washington the outbreak started in senior centers and we aren't seeing the kind of spread that European countries have.



The different strains are still very much up to debate, haven't read anything definitive about that. Obviously age plays a big part, which was also an issue in diamond princess.
 

Crazyorloco

Member
Dec 12, 2017
1,281
My child goes to his mum's house every other weekend (lives with me the rest of the time, UK). Should I suspend this for the time being?

I did. My daughter is staying her mom, in Connecticut (United States). I live in New York and the amount of cases here are insane. I thought it lll be better for her to stay there. Less exposure for both of us. Video chat and animal crossing is helping.


I would. Don't let it devolve into a fight, but the less exposure (for everyone), the better.

yup .
 

Serious Sam

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,354
Why is it so rampant in Italy?
Because Italy was one of first countries to get it after China and they waited a long time to take action. I don't buy any other explanation that Italians are dirty or aging population. Half of European countries have as old population as Italy, give or take a few years. Italy is like a preview of what will happen across Europe, USA, etc in the coming months.

We desperately need to adopt widespread mask usage asap in Europe and US.
 

Chikor

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
14,239
Was at the hospital today with my wife (pregnancy check up, deemed necessary by Doc) and the staff was talking about how they have to turn away folks who want tests even if they have clear symptoms because they simply don't have enough and have to ration based on most vulnerable.

Where are all these mythical tests?
And yet celebrities and politicians seem to be able to get them without any problem even if they don't have symptoms.
 

Toxi

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
17,552
I feel bad for discrimination of Chinese around all of this. People can be assholes sometimes (all the time).

I understand wanting to acknowledge where the virus originated, but labeling it as such just points the blame finger little too broadly at China. Yes, wet markets there are a HUGE problem, and I am hopeful the severity of this outbreak might finally lead to permanent bans on some level. But let's not fool ourselves, there are other places in the world doing similar practices and it is only a matter of time before those areas risk growing in size to the point that a virus outbreak is possible, especially is the China markets vanish.
I mean, China's a fucking big country. You're gonna get a lot of diseases starting there just because there's so many people, many of them still in impoverished conditions (Which is where serious outbreaks virtually always start).
 

grmlin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,365
Germany
Because Italy was one of first countries to get it after China and they waited a long time to take action. I don't buy any other explanation that Italians are dirty or aging population. Half of European countries have as old population as Italy, give or take a few years. Italy is like a preview of what will happen across Europe, USA, etc in the coming months.

We desperately need to adopt widespread mask usage asap in Europe and US.
I don't have any masks and I don't even know what masks I should get, where I can buy them from, and how to use them properly. I hope we will get educated on that soon and that we can buy them. Even if they reduce the chances to catch the virus or spread it by a little bit, it would be worth it.
 

Cap'n Cook

Member
Oct 25, 2017
230
I think like 11 days?



No hospital is prepared for a surge of this magnitude.


The 2017/18 flu season which lasted 19 weeks accounted for over 61,000 deaths in the US, that's on average 460 deaths a day, at its peak it had to be over 1,000 a day. Not downplaying this virus, I know it's going to get much worse, worried about the numbers we will see here in the coming weeks. Just trying to understand how hospitals are already struggling.
 

Kikujiro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
907
I feel bad for discrimination of Chinese around all of this. People can be assholes sometimes (all the time).

Even with an immediate response, instead of censoring it like China did, I don't think this could've been contained, it originated from a market, just imagine how many people were infected, many of them infected other people without knowing, the incubation period id 14 days, by the time the first patient went to a hospital and they discovered the new virus, it was probably already all around Wuhan.
This is why even in the West countries underestimated the virus despite having more time to prepare.

The racism is going to be bad for all the Asian people in general, because to a lot of Western people all Asians are Chinese.
 

Toxi

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
17,552
I don't have any masks and I don't even know what masks I should get, where I can buy them from, and how to use them properly. I hope we will get educated on that soon and that we can buy them. Even if they reduce the chances to catch the virus or spread it by a little bit, it would be worth it.
Simple gauze surgical masks are in high supply and potentially limit spread of pathogens from the wearer. Wearing them even if you're not showing symptoms seems like good common courtesy.

N95 masks and other respirators that actually protect you from the virus? We don't want people buying those. At all. Those are high priority for medical professionals and severely at-risk patients.
 

Naru

Member
May 11, 2019
2,375
The 2017/18 flu season which lasted 19 weeks accounted for over 61,000 deaths in the US, that's on average 460 deaths a day, at its peak it had to be over 1,000 a day. Not downplaying this virus, I know it's going to get much worse, worried about the numbers we will see here in the coming weeks. Just trying to understand how hospitals are already struggling.
People forget the deaths you mentioned are still happening. It's the additional amount of sick people that is the problem. Why do people not understand this.
 

1.21Gigawatts

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,278
Munich
There's no way of knowing this but compare Italy and even Washington in the US and it really seems like COVID mutated into a more lethal strain as it migrated to Europe. In Washington the outbreak started in senior centers and we aren't seeing the kind of spread that European countries have.




The high lethality in Italy is caused by a high average age of the infected and an overwhelmed healthcare system.
In Germany, where the same strand of the virus spreads as in Italy, the lethality is extraordinarily low, because most infected are young people who imported it from skiing trips in Tyrol and because the healthcare system is still able to keep up.


Also, social distancing will only have an effect on case numbers in about 10-14 days.
The US is nowhere near the amount of necessary testing to be able to even recognize a flattening trend in their curve.
I wouldn't interpret anything into those Washington State numbers.
 

Toxi

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
17,552
The 2017/18 flu season which lasted 19 weeks accounted for over 61,000 deaths in the US, that's on average 460 deaths a day, at its peak it had to be over 1,000 a day. Not downplaying this virus, I know it's going to get much worse, worried about the numbers we will see here in the coming weeks. Just trying to understand how hospitals are already struggling.
Because the hospitals are already dealing with the flu season.
 

DarthWalden

Prophet of Truth
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
6,030
There's no way of knowing this but compare Italy and even Washington in the US and it really seems like COVID mutated into a more lethal strain as it migrated to Europe. In Washington the outbreak started in senior centers and we aren't seeing the kind of spread that European countries have.




In addition to that, my gut tells me that the number of infected in the USA right now is way higher than the numbers would indicate because thry weren't and still aren't testing early and often enough which means the death rate is probably even lower reinforcing this idea that the strain here is weaker.

Having said that I don't know enough about Italy's testing history tho maybe it was the same situation over there.
 

Muu

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
1,981
The 2017/18 flu season which lasted 19 weeks accounted for over 61,000 deaths in the US, that's on average 460 deaths a day, at its peak it had to be over 1,000 a day. Not downplaying this virus, I know it's going to get much worse, worried about the numbers we will see here in the coming weeks. Just trying to understand how hospitals are already struggling.

Yup, now imagine piling on the Covid patients on top of those flu patients, and remember that said covid patients will take at least 2 weeks to get better. Fun times.
 

grmlin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,365
Germany
Simple gauze surgical masks are in high supply and potentially limit spread of pathogens from the wearer. Wearing them even if you're not showing symptoms seems like good common courtesy.

N95 masks and other respirators that actually protect you from the virus? We don't want people buying those. At all. Those are high priority for medical professionals and severely at-risk patients.
Thank You!

Do I throw them away when I for example did my shopping in the supermarket?