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when I refer to same structurally I am talking about the 2D perspective, the ledges, the crawling spaces, missiles etc. yes they added new elements, but as an old Metroid fan you know what to expect. I love Metroid, and I want it to do well, I am just being a realist. To me I'll do 2.5 to 3 mil, and I feel this is Nintendo testing the waters to see if it does well for them to put full budget in prime.
Awakening outsold every Metroid outside of Prime and Metroid 1. Fates sold nearly 3 million combine which means FE was doing better than Metroid well before Three Houses and have been "scratching it" since 2012.
Dread is pretty much the Switch's big core holiday game. Advance Wars is niche and a remake, Pokémon is a remake, and Mario Party is multiplayer focused. I'm sure those will sell better than Dread BUT it leaves Dread alone as the game for the traditional Mario/Zelda crowd. Plus good word of mouth and hype could push it into the wish lists of kids, especially since it's 'adult' without having anything parents would likely object to.
It'll pass a million easy if it's good, and if it hits the Fire Emblem or Animal Crossing internet love machine the sky's the limit.
It'll pass a million easy if it's good, and if it hits the Fire Emblem or Animal Crossing internet love machine the sky's the limit.
I just really think that the core gamer user base the switch has built up is what's really gonna help their most core series besides Zelda.
Like yes switch boost - but when you realize what the switch boost IS (more engaged gamers, not just casual), you realize that Metroid is exactly the type of game to benefit MOST from it
Like yes switch boost - but when you realize what the switch boost IS (more engaged gamers, not just casual), you realize that Metroid is exactly the type of game to benefit MOST from it
"Awakening outsold every Metroid except the two best Metroids", yeah so basically what I said about Fire Emblem's best selling single title not outshining Metroid's best. Half a million is a pretty hefty difference when you're dealing with comparative niches.
And I don't consider Fates selling 3 million a particularly honest comparison given how that's a number split between 3 SKUs with one of Nintendo's most transparent double dipping + DLC schemes ever devised.
For fairness I used the physical price, but yea I know you can easily get it for much cheaper digitally.
Its safe to say the reveal made a big splash. Over a million views on youtube, many outlets reactions to it are their most viewed from the direct (even over BoTW 2). Its getting a good holiday slot, special editions and amiibo and hopefully a decent advertising push. Metroidvanias are popular and the Switch audience is proven to gobble them up. 1-2 million is a conservative guess but it breaking into 3-4 million lifetime is not some outlandish take - its certainly possible
You said they didn't scratch Metroid. 2.3 and 3.0 million copies sure sound like scratching. And that number for Fates was for Conquest and Birthright. No idea if Revelations is included. Regardless, they are in the same ballpark and have been for a while.
Okay yeah, for all the discussion our outlooks on the actual sales don't really seem to be all that different from each other. I'm predicting 3-3.5M but I don't really see it being all that crazy if it goes higher.
It's a bit early to be the big core holiday game as it's October
AW is December.
I'm assuming part of the reason is Pokemon is November, but Age of Calamity was announced in a trailer in September 8th last year since no September direct.
I wouldn't rule out another surprise game for November revealed in September this year.
I really wanted to do well but if it's anything like Samus returns on 3ds then it's going to be a mediocre game. I hope to God this isn't like that.
Even if you feel that half a million is a negligible difference in terms of comparing series niches, it still took substantially longer for Fire Emblem to close the gap with Metroid's ceiling, and Fates' release strategy inflating the sales numbers is the only reasonable assumption to make since it would otherwise undercut the franchise's growth going into Three Houses. The point is Metroid hasn't had a proper chance to push its growth potential ever since it left the cube, so any comparison to how franchises like Fire Emblem and Xenoblade are doing right now doesn't really track. The race it's running now is completely different than what it's been doing for the better decade.
I think it's going to come down to just how good the game is, specifically broad critical reception / meta.
If they manage a 90+ like Fusion, I don't see 4-5 million being unreachable. It's getting a fantastic holiday slot, without many other major core titles to compete with.
If they manage a 90+ like Fusion, I don't see 4-5 million being unreachable. It's getting a fantastic holiday slot, without many other major core titles to compete with.
Expecting 1.5 million or under. Would absolutely love to be wrong, but the Metroid series has never broken 3 million with any game, even the biggest, most acclaimed entries.
Dread is even more of a niche title, one of the 2D entries. I'll be getting it day one, but I also got Samus Returns day one, and that sold less than a million. So did Zero Mission, one of the best games in the series.
Metroid Prime 4 could maybe break 3 million, though.
Dread is even more of a niche title, one of the 2D entries. I'll be getting it day one, but I also got Samus Returns day one, and that sold less than a million. So did Zero Mission, one of the best games in the series.
Metroid Prime 4 could maybe break 3 million, though.
It had two chances on the Wii and botched them. Prime 3 managed nowhere near Prime 1 despite the Wii being a much more successful console and Other M was a disaster.
One game that was notoriously mismarketed towards a casual blue ocean audience and one that got destroyed by terrible word-of-mouth. Yeah, I don't think Dread has to worry about any of those problems.
Wii also had a very different audience composition than the Switch does.
edit: I posted cringe here! It's gone now, but if you're curious, just check out the replies below. Just saving myself the trouble of having to own up to it again and again lol
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I'm optimistic for 4 million, coasting a bit on "Switch factor" and assuming the series' long-time dedicated fans are generally positive about it, which I think it'll need in order to get the enthusiastic word of mouth required to succeed.
that's quite the rant - where is it coming from? What do Souls fans do that you're referencing? The only thing I notice from Souls fans is an insistence that Souls titles should never bend on difficulty.
Metroid fans have always felt that Metroid games are good. I wouldn't think finally having a great new one would change anything?
The thinking is that core gamers in the west really like FPS and since Metroid is more popular in the west, the FPS version will do much better. At least, I think that is the logic.
I think there is a real chance this does way over 5 mil. Think about how long it's been since we have seen a main line 2d metroid game. There will be a lot of purchases that might not get full play throughs!!!
I definitely believe Prime 4 will become the better selling title if it plays its cards right - and hopefully comes out before Switch software may trail downward (assuming that happens anytime in the near future). That's not to say I don't think Dread can set a new benchmark until that happens.
I think it's just the normal stigma among enthusiasts about 2D games for whatever reason being inherently interior to 3D games.
This.
Metroid fans will obviously buy it, and it will get some new fans, but can't see it becoming much more than franchises like Fire Emblem.
Probably because the budget is usually inferior (not always, but mostly), so paying a lot doesn't feels good.
Apples and oranges. 2D Marios generally sell better than 3D Marios because the barrier to entry is lower. That's not relevant with Metroid because it's a far less broadly appealing series that self selects for more experienced players who won't be turned off by the added complexity of a 3D title. Tack on the fact that Metroid is far more popular in the West where FPSes are a leading genre. Add in the fact that the 3D games on the Gamecube sold better than the 2D games on the GBA, despite the fact that the GCN games were more expensive and on a far less widely available system, and I have a really hard time seeing how there's a strong case to be made that a future 2D Metroid could be expected to outsell a 3D one.
I don't really see it as a rant. Mostly because I'm just playing around, really. That's not a post that's meant to be taken seriously, other than my point that Metroid fans (like myself) LOVE good Metroid and Metroid-style games, and will replay them and talk them up for years to come if they recognize those games as being more than just good.
Souls fans (like myself, newly-minted though I am) love Souls games too, of course. Moreover, though... I've been a part of this community long enough that I remember a time when Souls hadn't reached the level of penetration that it enjoys today. Back then, ardent Souls fans would often express that they saw something in Souls games that left other games feeling lesser to them, or less engaging to them, in comparison. As if Souls was something that really needed to be experienced to be understood. And even longer ago, that sort of talk was as common among Metroid fans, too. Over time, that's the sort of word-of-mouth that helped make Souls and Souls-like mechanics as popular as they are today, much in the same way that (I think) Super Metroid and SoTN's reputations among fans as some of the greatest games ever designed helped to enable the Metroidvania renaissance we've been enjoying for a few years now, by continually stoking people's curiousity and interest in the genre.
If Dread exceeds expectations among the Metroid fanbase, then Dread's legs (sales-wise) will be all the stronger for it, you know what I mean? A good Metroid game is good, but a great Metroid game is the kind of game that Metroid fans will extol as the best thing since sliced bread for a long time, like with Metroid Prime and Super Metroid. And that's not meant to be a derisive statement, cuz that's how I felt about Metroid Prime and Super Metroid too, lol. I'd be one of those guys talking up Super Metroid in 'best games' discussions where the likes of FFIV/VII, Chrono Cross, Super Mario 64, and MGS took center stage.
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I'm not trying to compare it to Mario, I'm simply trying to say that not every single 3D series will sell better than its 2D counterpart. I don't think there's enough data to claim that that's the case with Metroid either. GBA got all of one new Metroid game, the other was a remake, so I don't really think that's enough of a sample size to make the claim that 2D Metroids inherently sell worse.
I think you to step away from the screen, drink a glass of water and go for a nice, long walk.
I assume you're kinda joking, so am I... unless you're not
Yeah. Pure shitpost. Certainly sounded better in my head, haha. I explained my meaning or intent above though, take it as you will.
Alright, alright, I get it 😅
I just want it to sell well enough to get a sequel in a timely fashion, and be good enough to be excited about the sequel.
Uh, there arent that many of us. Super metroid only sold 1.42 million copies.
Were going to need to sell metroids core appeal to new blood.
time to add a battle royale and asynchronous multiplayer mode where one plays as EMMI
You're a monster.
Being able to hop online and become someones emmi would be kinda cool though.
I said 3mil but I think the circumstances are better now than they have been in the past. The Switch has proven to be a great place for Metroidvania's to find success and this being the first home console 2D Metroid since Super Metroid in 1994 certainly helps.
I just hope fans actually buy it.
I just hope fans actually buy it.
3 million maybe. 5 million seems like a lot. I only wish for success with this series, but the sales are always sad. 3 million would be amazing.
To be fair there are plenty of people who played Super Metroid first on Wii/WiiU/NSO. But still it's definitely not close to 5 million.
I think 2D Mario is the exception, not the rule. There's no 2D platformer series that can sell half as well as Mario. And the gap between 3D and 2D Mario isn't really that wide anymore (they sold about the same on Wii U and 3DS).
