XBox Series S/LOCKHART SPEC-ulation CONTEST!

[Shogmaster]

Let's list our best guess at the specs for the possible cheaper brother of XBox Series X! Closest to the actual spec earns ERA's fame and glory! Maybe something more tangible too (TBD). There are two parts to this contest: 1. Specs. and 2. Price. You must list both. Specs accuracy counts for 78% of the score (13pts x6) and the price for the rest 22%.

THIS IS BINDING! No changy guessies. Any edited tagged entry will be discarded. Last guess accepted by April 4th 4pm PST cuz who the hell knows when MS will spring the actual specs on us. It could be next week or next year.

I'll go first. Please follow format for ease of judging/scoring. (We all know that CPU is 8 core Zen 2 and GPU is RDNA 2.0 so you don't need that)

SOC - ~240mm^2 (7nm+ TSMC) ~9.5 BN transistors
CPU - 3.6GHz w SMT/3.8GHz wo SMT
GPU - 18 CU (20 - 2) @ 1.8GHz (4.1TF)
RAM - 12GB GDDR6 (6x 14Gbps 16Gb chips) @196 bits/s = 336GB/s
SSD - 512GB with add on slot (2.4GB/s raw 4.8GB compressed)
BR - UHD BR

MSRP - $299

 

[dom]

A BIG FAT ZERO as it won't come out.

 

[Shogmaster]

A BIG FAT ZERO as it won't come out.

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Definitely a possibility.

Here's something I wanted add to the OP but don't want to edit it and go against my own rules so I'll dit this post instead.

 

[ThatNerdGUI]

IF it's was a thing it would be:

RAM: same setup as SX but only 10GB
GPU: Same as a 5500xt, 24CU, 4 disabled @~1,700MHz
CPU: Same as SX
SSD: Sames as SX

But Lockhart is dead and and Series S will be basically a UHD player optimized for Xcloud for $150.

 

[Labinlima]

Literally it won't come out. But if I were to guess for fun it would be like:

SOC - Same as XSX.
CPU - Same as OP :P.
GPU - 10 TF version of XSX.
RAM - Instead of fast and slow rams just 16 gb gddr4 of ''slow'' XSX rams.
SSD - 512 gb version of XSX.
BR - 4K. But games will run on 1080p to 2K at best.

MSRP - 350 or 400 dollars. Because XSX is going to be released at 500 dollars imo.

 

[tapedeck]

My heart is rooting for it not to come out at all.

My head says it'll be revealed spring 2021 with a Fall 2021 release.

All digital, no disc drive
Very slim 'traditional' form factor
CPU - downclocked XSX Zen 2
GPU - 4TF RDNA 2
RAM - 12 GB DDR4
SSD - Same as XSX
1080p for most games, 1400p possible.

$249, September 2021 launch.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

SOC - ~200mm^2 n7p ~8 BN transistors
CPU - ~3.5GHz w SMT/3.6GHz wo SMT
GPU - 26 CU (28 total) @ ~1.3GHz (~4.3TF)
RAM - 10GB GDDR6, 10gbps, 6GB at 240GB/s, 4GB at 160GB/s
SSD - same as Xsx
BR - UHD BR

MSRP - $249, Fall/Winter 2020

 

[Deleted member 20297]

I hope it exists!
It should have a beefy CPU and the same core count as the big brother, so
CPU > 3.2 GHz
GPU > 4.5TF
RAM ~ 10GB, don't know about bandwidth but probably lower than XSX and PS5
SSD - same speed as XSX, probably only 500GB but with extension slot

Slim and silent AF.

$249, boom.

 

[VeePs]

A BIG FAT ZERO as it won't come out.

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Literally it won't come out. But if I were to guess for fun it would be like:

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tomwarren and shinobi602 both seem to think it'll come out:

 

[Shogmaster]

i give it 70/30 atm of coming out. it's already tooled and have FEPs being tested in all likelihood. If they cancel it, they would end up eating several million on case and parts tooling and countless R and D dollars and man hours on the SoC wasted, but such things aren't end of the world at places like MS and prolly happens more often you might imagine.

To cancel or not would really depend on Sony's pricing of PS5. So Lockhart's future is mostly in Sony's hands IMO...

 

[Pankratous]

Doesn't exist.

Or if it did exist, it no longer exists.

 

[12Danny123]

i give it 70/30 atm of coming out. it's already tooled and have FEPs being tested in all likelihood. If they cancel it, they would end up eating several million on case and parts tooling and countless R and D dollars and man hours on the SoC wasted, but such things aren't end of the world at places like MS and prolly happens more often you might imagine.

To cancel or not would really depend on Sony's pricing of PS5. So Lockhart's future is mostly in Sony's hands IMO...

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I guess this will depend on whether Sony can achieve a $399 price tag. Though things are pointing towards Sony pricing it higher than $399.

 

[G_Zero]

BR - 4K. But games will run on 1080p to 2K at best.

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1080p is 2K ;-)

 

[EinBear]

I haven't really been keeping up with the speculation threads. How come people think the Lockhart model won't be launching anymore?

 

[tapedeck]

i give it 70/30 atm of coming out. it's already tooled and have FEPs being tested in all likelihood. If they cancel it, they would end up eating several million on case and parts tooling and countless R and D dollars and man hours on the SoC wasted, but such things aren't end of the world at places like MS and prolly happens more often you might imagine.

To cancel or not would really depend on Sony's pricing of PS5. So Lockhart's future is mostly in Sony's hands IMO...

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Keep in mind they could potentially use some of the parts they've already built for xcloud servers. I think there were some rumors hinting at this.

 

[DvdGzz]

A console where the only or at least biggest sacrifice is resolution sounds awesome. My daughter couldn't care less about 4k and if I can get her into next gen for $299 that would be great.

 

[Shogmaster]

Keep in mind they could potentially use some of the parts they've already built for xcloud servers. I think there were some rumors hinting at this.

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That's interesting. They would def need Zen 2 based SoC for streaming XSX games but they really don't need 4K streaming like Google is trying with Stadia since A). Bandwidth is too precious to waste on pure resolution and B). They want you to buy consoles for 4K gaming anyways. So if XCloud concentrates on a good 720p experience on mobile devices, Anaconda SoC would definitely a waste for that purpose and XSS SoC would be a better choice for that.

So even if they cancel Lockhart console, the SoC R and D can be fully utilized in XCloud implementation, and the few million for Lockhart console tooling would be trivial to MS.

 

[Labinlima]

tomwarren and shinobi602 both seem to think it'll come out:

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If it's going to be really coming out then it's going to be an xCloud machine nothing more :P No way MS would destroy their most powerful console with a cheaper 1080p alternative because to be honest even when I have a 4K 100 Hz TV I could care less about resolution if there is a 200 dollars cheaper alternative :P

 

[Shogmaster]

If it's going to be really coming out then it's going to be an xCloud machine nothing more :P No way MS would destroy their most powerful console with a cheaper 1080p alternative because to be honest even when I have a 4K 100 Hz TV I could care less about resolution if there is a 200 dollars cheaper alternative :P

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MS wouldn't care if they are selling XSS or XSX as long as it's one or the other. They want the market share bc market share = more games sold and subs sold which is where they make the money.

 

[nelsonroyale]

I expect it to come out given XSX's specs and the likelihood that it is more expensive than PS5.

RRP: $300-350
CPU: <XSX
GPU: approx 4TF
Ram: 10 gig
SSD: 500 gig

I think it is a good idea for MS, although I expect there to be fairly significant graphical cut backs as the gen progresses.

 

[modiz]

I guess I'll join this too
CPU- same component as the Series X, 3.3Ghz SMT enabled , 3.5Ghz SMT disabled
GPU - 22 compute units (24 total) clocked at 1600mhz = 4.5TF
Ram - 10 14Gbps chips 1GB each 160bit bus = 280GB/s bandwidth, considering that OS and CPU usage remain the same (assuming developers stick to the memory usage suggested by MS), devs will have 4GB memory for the GPU.
SSD - identical to the Series X
price - $299~$349

I am pretty confident in most of this outside of clocks.

 

[litebrite]

i give it 70/30 atm of coming out. it's already tooled and have FEPs being tested in all likelihood. If they cancel it, they would end up eating several million on case and parts tooling and countless R and D dollars and man hours on the SoC wasted, but such things aren't end of the world at places like MS and prolly happens more often you might imagine.

To cancel or not would really depend on Sony's pricing of PS5. So Lockhart's future is mostly in Sony's hands IMO...

Click to shrink...

MS's next gen machine is simply named Xbox. Series X is a specific series of it. MS wouldn't have a specific series of Xbox if their wasn't going to be another series. Lockhart is definitely coming.

 

[Shogmaster]

MS's next gen machine is simply named Xbox. Series X is a specific series of it. MS wouldn't have a specific series of Xbox if their wasn't going to be another series. Lockhart is definitely coming.

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I agree. That's why I've been giving it 70% chance of happening.

 

[litebrite]

I agree. That's why I've been giving it 70% chance of happening.

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I give it more of a 90%% chance of happening.

 

[Labinlima]

MS's next gen machine is simply named Xbox. Series X is a specific series of it. MS wouldn't have a specific series of Xbox if their wasn't going to be another series. Lockhart is definitely coming.

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I still think it's bad business practice. Sure selling a 300 dollars console or 500 console won't be that different because every Xbox owner will buy AT LEAST 1 game and maybe 1 Gold membership too. But game developers won't be happy by any means. Also Microsoft should definitely fire who decides those names. What will we see 3 years later? Xbox Series X X? I really dont see a future about Lockhart tbh.

 

[Shogmaster]

I still think it's bad business practice. Sure selling a 300 dollars console or 500 console won't be that different because every Xbox owner will buy AT LEAST 1 game and maybe 1 Gold membership too. But game developers won't be happy by any means. Also Microsoft should definitely fire who decides those names. What will we see 3 years later? Xbox Series X X? I really dont see a future about Lockhart tbh.

Click to shrink...

Devs are already told to support XBox One S with GCN CU barely above 1TF and stinky slow Jaguar CPU cores for at least one more year. Compared to that tweaking graphics settings for XSS @1080p or 1440p vs 2160p of XSX will be a breeze. Most devs already do it for PCs anyways. All those graphics settings in PC games are there for a reason.

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

SOC - ~200mm^2 n7p ~8 BN transistors
CPU - ~3.5GHz w SMT/3.6GHz wo SMT
GPU - 26 CU (28 total) @ ~1.3GHz (~4.3TF)
RAM - 10GB GDDR6, 10gbps, 6GB at 240GB/s, 4GB at 160GB/s
SSD - same as Xsx
BR - UHD BR

MSRP - $249, Fall/Winter 2020

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This, but with 8GB is mine

I've convinced myself Lockhart is a streaming box with local hardware to assist the streaming experience.

 

[Lausebub]

With how the economy is going launching a cheaper sku makes more sense then ever.

 

[SharpX68K]

I am hoping Lockhart / Series S never sees the light of day.

 

[nelsonroyale]

This, but with 8GB is mine

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I think there is no chance it will be $249, but would be happy to be proven wrong. I certainly would consider getting one if enough decent exclusives are released, rather than get a desktop PC with a decent GPU. I wonder how much RT will be an issue with this one given how it scales? Probably an issue.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Devs are already told to support XBox One S with GCN CU barely above 1TF and stinky slow Jaguar CPU cores for at least one more year. Compared to that tweaking graphics settings for XSS @1080p or 1440p vs 2160p of XSX will be a breeze. Most devs already do it for PCs anyways. All those graphics settings in PC games are there for a reason

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Exactly! I would also point out that this gen will receive cross-gen games by a long time. Even more because there's a recession coming and people won't be rushing to buy the new consoles. A cheaper entry to next-gen in these dire times is ace for winning the market share battle.

 

[litebrite]

I still think it's bad business practice. Sure selling a 300 dollars console or 500 console won't be that different because every Xbox owner will buy AT LEAST 1 game and maybe 1 Gold membership too. But game developers won't be happy by any means. Also Microsoft should definitely fire who decides those names. What will we see 3 years later? Xbox Series X X? I really dont see a future about Lockhart tbh.

Click to shrink...

I highly doubt Xbox will have a midgen refresh console next gen given the overall upgrade next gen consoles will be, yet alone how powerful the Xbox Series X is. Probably why Xbox Series X already has the Series X name because it's their premium Series for next gen like Xbox One X was this gen. There's room in the market for a cheaper Series S (Lockhart) and now that the economy is suffering due to coronavirus, it will only give MS more confidence to launch it.

 

[Shogmaster]

This, but with 8GB is mine

I've convinced myself Lockhart is a streaming box with local hardware to assist the streaming experience.

Click to shrink...

You don't need 8 core Zen2 and RDNA 2.0 for streaming bruh. A quad core A55 ARM SoC will do...

 

[Iron Eddie]

• CPU: 8x Zen 2 Cores at 3.6GHz (3.4GHz with SMT) 7nm
• GPU: 8 TFLOPs Custom RDNA 2
• Memory: 10GB GDDR6
• Storage: 500GB custom NVMe SSD
• Optical drive: None

Price - $349

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

I think the people that doesn't want LockHart because "It will hinder the next-gen vision" come from such a selfish, self-centered and elitist point of view. Not everyone has the money to pay $499/549 in addition to a 4K TV. Most people just want to play games but doesn't has that much of money to spend. A cheaper entry, capitalizing on the giant base of 1080p TVs and aiming at a more price conscious consumer is a right move to do.

 

[Deleted member 56995]

SOC - ~240mm^2 (7nm+ TSMC) ~9.5 BN transistors
CPU - 3.4 GHz w/ SMT; 3.55 GHz w/o SMT
GPU - 20 active CU (24 - 4) @ 1.8GHz (4.6 TF)
RAM - 12GB GDDR6 (6x 14Gbps 16Gb chips) @196 bits/s = 336GB/s, 9 GBs usable at launch
SSD - 512GB with add on slot (2.4GB/s raw 4.8GB compressed)
No disc drive

MSRP - $299, ~$50-$75 loss with each console

I put the chances of Lockhart at near certain.

 

[Snake Eater]

A BIG FAT ZERO as it won't come out.

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when MS announces that sweet $599 series X price, you'll understand why Lockhart exists

I've convinced myself Lockhart is a streaming box with local hardware to assist the streaming experience.

Click to shrink...

Then it might as well be a google chrome streaming stick device

 

[Shogmaster]

I don't understand why some ppl are still having such hard time with the concept of resolution scaling.

4TF @1080p and 12TF @ 2160p will pretty much be the same next gen experience apart from the resolution. Think about Swtch games running in docked vs portable. Same damn game apart from resolution.

It's not that hard, jebus...

 

[Lausebub]

Weren't also a lot of people talking about how TFs don't matter that much.

 

[nelsonroyale]

I don't understand why some ppl are still having such hard time with the concept of resolution scaling.

4TF @1080p and 12TF @ 2160p will pretty much be the same next gen experience apart from the resolution. Think about Swtch games running in docked vs portable. Same damn game apart from resolution.

It's not that hard, jebus...

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It seems to be the same logic where people expect the differences between the PS5 and XSX to be anything other than trivial differences in resolution between say 1800p and 2160p with dynamic scaling. Or that the differences in SSD is the main kicker, not the fact that going from HDD to SSD in general is the major difference.

 

[Shogmaster]

It seems to be the same logic where people expect the differences between the PS5 and XSX to be anything other than trivial differences in resolution between say 1800p and 2160p with dynamic scaling. Or that the differences in SSD is the main kicker, not the fact that going from HDD to SSD in general is the major difference.

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I agree. I think things like pricing/value, storage space and extras like enhanced BC makes more of an impact that the fairly relative performance differences outside of having good games to play.

 

[Fisty]

It ain't coming out, at least I hope it doesn't. PS5 and XSX should be the baseline

EDIT: these $249 guesses are laughable

 

[Shogmaster]

It ain't coming out, at least I hope it doesn't. PS5 and XSX should be the baseline

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Days of clean generational jump died when Sony introduced PS4 Pro. They can wish and preach clean generational start all they want but that ship sailed by their own doing. It will be iterative change from now on with BC as the binding thread.

 

[Fisty]

Days of clean generational jump died when Sony introduced PS4 Pro. They can wish and preach clean generational start all they want but that ship sailed by their own doing. It will be iterative change from now on with BC as the binding thread.

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I think Sony disagrees with you, we will see how many true PS5 exclusives they announce at the full reveal. Considering Sony doesnt have anything announced after June, I'm pretty sure they are all in on PS5 exclusives and will be pushing 3rd parties onto it as well.

 

[Shogmaster]

I think Sony disagrees with you, we will see how many true PS5 exclusives they announce at the full reveal. Considering Sony doesnt have anything announced after June, I'm pretty sure Sony is all in on PS5 exclusives and will be pushing 3rd parties onto it as well.

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If that's true then they shoulda said fuck it to BC and put more than 36CU in the thing, so they didn't have to clock the damn GPU to 2.3GHz lolz. They can disagree all they want. But their own actions on PS5 architecture conflict with their messaging.

 

[RingRang]

Days of clean generational jump died when Sony introduced PS4 Pro. They can wish and preach clean generational start all they want but that ship sailed by their own doing. It will be iterative change from now on with BC as the binding thread.

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Why would the Pro being able to render PS4 games with twice the pixels (and that's about it) suddenly mean that generations no longer exist?

The PS5 will feel like a massive leap from the Pro.

 

[nelsonroyale]

If that's true then they shoulda said fuck it to BC and put more than 36CU in the thing, so they didn't have to clock the damn GPU to 2.3GHz lolz. They can disagree all they want. But their own actions on PS5 architecture conflict with their messaging.

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I mean if they price under the XSX I would say their decision is just as legit as MS's. It is pretty obvious that their decisions have been guided by that principal, let's see if it worked out.

 

[Fisty]

If that's true then they shoulda said fuck it to BC and put more than 36CU in the thing, so they didn't have to clock the damn GPU to 2.3GHz lolz. They can disagree all they want. But their own actions on PS5 architecture conflict with their messaging.

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Pretty sure they could just turn off some CU's if they needed to for BC. I imagine you will understand why they chose 36 CUs when they reveal the price, and if they can keep the thing quiet then they can clock those cores at 4.46 for all I care. Not sure why that matters

 

[Shogmaster]

Why would the Pro being able to render PS4 games with twice the pixels (and that's about it) suddenly mean that generations no longer exist?

The PS5 will feel like a massive leap from the Pro.

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Coulda been a bigger leap if they abandoned 36CU layout for BC sake.

 

[Shogmaster]

Pretty sure they could just turned off some CU's if they needed to for BC. I imagine you will understand why they chose 36 CUs when they reveal the price, and if they can keep the thing quiet then they can clock those cores at 4.46 for all I care. Not sure why that matters

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Dude, 36 CUs were guessed by many even before the Github leak. No one was surpriesed by the CU coungt during the reveal.