Mario Kart 8 DLC instead of MK9 makes me think MK9 is a title for next gen. If that's true, then next-gen is about two years away. Two years is a lot longer than ya'll think.
Nintendo officially designates 2020 sales as an anomaly related to the pandemic and the perfect timing of the release of Animal Crossing as a cultural zeitgeist, so even though it will almost certainly be the peak, it's basically a unique outlier relative to the sales trends that even Nintendo acknowledges does not reflect the usual expectations. The decline is mostly centered around that and then exacerbated by a chip shortage that would seriously impact a new console.
I also think viewing systems as the money makers and not the software and services is a mistake people are also making here. With the insane attach rates of the Switch and major software still pumping massive numbers, they're still enjoying an extremely hefty profit from the Switch and still outpacing what would be their competitors on most levels. I look at the Switch as much more similar to the Game Boy or the Nintendo DS than I do the home consoles, and thus, I expect it's life span to be a very similar 7 full years with not much incentive for Nintendo to push the new system up outside of enthusiasts hoping for some better resolution and frame rates. Systems are a gateway to income for the console manufacturers, less so on their own, and the more the attach rate holds or even increases, the less incentive they have for a new system as soon as possible.
The current Switch lasting 10-13 years without a successor is definitely pushing it.I think you're gravely underestimating how much gas the Switch still has left in the tank, especially with all the software announced recently. It can certainly run for another 5 years no problem.
It's 100% possible via DLSS.
2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023
For the 11.5% of the people that voted 2023, I made a little ASCII infographic to visualize it. It could still happen, which would suggest Nintendo lied about it being half way.
2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023
For the 11.5% of the people that voted 2023, I made a little ASCII infographic to visualize it. It could still happen, which would suggest Nintendo lied about it being half way.
I also hope to see a Switch Pro come out soon. However, I do not consider it the Switch 2/Successor. I hope they consider letting the Switch brand continue in a form similar to what Microsoft is doing with Xbox.Alternatively a successor / new iteration could come and they wouldn't have lied at all.
2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023 - Pro / Successor Console released, limited like PS5/XSX
2024 - Maybe this year
2025 - This year at a push and I would suggest they've fucked the brand by this point. Being 2 gens behind after the competition moved on 3+ years ago clearly unacceptable
2026
2027 - OG Switch shipments cease if brand wasn't already terminal / dead sooner
I don't think you understand how console life cycles work if you seriously took half way literally.2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023
For the 11.5% of the people that voted 2023, I made a little ASCII infographic to visualize it. It could still happen, which would suggest Nintendo lied about it being half way.
Fun fact: A system's life cycle does not end the moment its successor is released.2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023
For the 11.5% of the people that voted 2023, I made a little ASCII infographic to visualize it. It could still happen, which would suggest Nintendo lied about it being half way.
I expect Switch to have a 10 year life cycle, but "life cycle" doesn't end just because the successor system releases.
Even the 3DS got what? 8 or 9 years of support?
There's no reason why you would cut Switch support regardless of when the "next chipset iteration" comes.
The other difference today is with only one hardware line I think Nintendo is more sensitive to declining sales. In the past it didn't really matter if Game Boy sales declined or had rough patches (SNES cushioned declining Game Boy sales) because there was a console division to create boosts in their overall hardware forecast and vice versa (DS introduced in 2004 boosted Nintendo during sluggish GameCube sales).
They don't have this dynamic any more, so it will be interesting to see what level of decline they are comfortable with. Companies don't get to dictate this stuff on their own, the consumer has a large say in the end with their buying patterns.
Nintendo does not have to make money from console sales; it may keep adding new titles to the Switch as long as people keep buying them.
I also hope to see a Switch Pro come out soon. However, I do not consider it the Switch 2/Successor. I hope they consider letting the Switch brand continue in a form similar to what Microsoft is doing with Xbox.
Thanks for telling us. I'll let Nintendo HQ know they should call you so you can judge whether their new console is or isn't the Switch successor.
Jokes aside, I totally understand you. I don't consider the Xbox Series X the successor to the Xbox One. Therefore, it isn't. Case closed.
It's crazy we still have no idea when the next 3D Mario game will come out yet about 5 years after Odyssey. Bowser's Fury was nice but I'm ready for a 3D Mario soon.
Switch next gen can't be released before next gen MK?Mario Kart 8 DLC instead of MK9 makes me think MK9 is a title for next gen. If that's true, then next-gen is about two years away. Two years is a lot longer than ya'll think.
That's not how any of this works. A console life cycle doesn't end with the release of new hardware. The PS2 for example was still being sold waaaay after the PS3 was released.2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023
For the 11.5% of the people that voted 2023, I made a little ASCII infographic to visualize it. It could still happen, which would suggest Nintendo lied about it being half way.
To be more accurate, they said they're in the middle. This could also be interpreted as how the ages of 24-26 are in the middle of one's 20s. And even then, I doubt Nintendo will cut in the original Switch off cold turkey if the 3DS is any indication.2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023
For the 11.5% of the people that voted 2023, I made a little ASCII infographic to visualize it. It could still happen, which would suggest Nintendo lied about it being half way.
They could also have another Smash game ready by 2025 by your estimates, as Ultimate took just under 3 years to develop (3 years total counting the planning phase). I doubt Nintendo will leave that franchise on the shelf for long. And if Sakurai begins development by the end of this year, they can have Smash 6/7 out by Holiday 2025.My personal prediction:
Switch 2 will launch around April 2024. This would be a good sweetspot for starting the transition into Next Gen for Nintendo. They could provide the following games for launch:
1. New big casual game by EPD 4
They are developing Switch Sports at the moment, but after they will have finished this, they would have two full years to develop a big casual launchtitle for Switch 2.
2. New 3D Mario by EPD Tokyo
According to rumors, a smaller group of EPD Tokyo is developing a new 2D DK for Switch at the moment (maybe with heavy assistance by EPD 10). So their bigger group could indeed prepare a brandnew 3D Mario for Switch 2. And after the 'smaller group' will have finished 2D DK - lets say in early 2023 - they could join the other staff members of the bigger group. EPD Tokyo will be supported as usual by 1UP Studio and NST for this game. So Nintendo could really have a new big 3D Mario ready for launch of Switch 2
3. Exclusiv title by some 3rd-Party-Developer (SE, Capcom, UbiSoft)
I think it would be totally fine to launch with three exclusive launchgames + a lot of Multigames for sure. For the months after launch, Nintendo could have ready the following games for Switch 2:
- Pikmin 4 (by EPD 10)
- Pokken Tournament 2 (by Bandai Namco/TPC)
- another exclusive 3rd-Party-Title
- Splatoon 3.5
- new Goodfeel Game (that will not come out on Switch 1 anymore)
- new Mario Party (by Camelot)
I think this kind of lineup would be enough to carry Switch 2's momentum over the first nine months. Luigis Mansion 4 and Mario Kart X will be the big holiday games for christmas 2025 then.
Chip fab and allocations would have been negotiated at least a few years in advance, what could happen is more about being restricted in how many they could produce rather than inability to produce, ala the PS5 which has seen its shipments cut drastically. It's highly unlikely they walk away from that if they've also reserved capacity.I voted holiday 2023 but honestly I think they've put it on the back burner until necessity dictates or the chip crisis eases up. What can they even do? They might have some great design made and ready to go but if they can't make the units to meet even a tepid demand it will be pointless to release it.
Nintendo isn't releasing a new platform, they will just release a 4K revision of the Switch next year.