• Light/Dark

US Politics | OT 4 | Don't Complain, DO SOMETHING

For US politics and election threads

What are you doing?

  • Virtue signal online/like a sick tweet/argue with bots

  • Vote

  • Donate

  • Phonebank/Textbank

  • Canvass/Knock on Doors

  • Fundraise/Organize

  • Run for elected office

Results are only viewable after voting.
Reader mode
Speevy

Speevy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
22,065
Lakershead22 said:
Why do you think that is? Just curious.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I think this user is referring to the possibility that Donald Trump has reached his ceiling in support, and pollsters are using weighting that overcorrects for past voting. The truth is that nobody knows if it's going to be razor-thin or a total blowout for either one.
 
ZeoVGM

ZeoVGM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
80,107
Providence, RI
Lord Fanny said:
There's nothing wrong with this answer per se, but man…it really just feels like the bite has been taken out of this campaign at times doesn't it? Am I crazy for thinking that sometimes?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It's been that way since the DNC and has only been getting worse.

The enthusiasm that existed prior has largely faded away and been replaced with party in-fighting over some of the campaign's decisions.
 
maigret

maigret

Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,610
shinobi602 said:

View: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1844529138503233598
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...


It's amazing they always seem reluctant to come right out and make this a talking point. Not just the thing about Trump taking credit for the economic recovery, but cleaning up from the mess from the Bush administration. I mean it should be obvious to anyone paying attention that the economy always tanks when Republicans are in office.

Actually Bill Clinton recently came out and furnished some statistic that job growth under Democratic admins was something like 50 million in the last few decades, versus 1 million under the GOP. Like why aren't they saying this all the time.
 
Trouble

Trouble

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,738
Seattle-ish

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
15,523
GardenPepper said:
Again, this is based on pure vibes. There's no data for this whatsoever.


So the amount of young people who have voted at this point is down 25% compared to this time in 2020. Why is that great again? How is that showing "massive enthusiasm?"
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
There's actually been plenty of good analysis and data on why no, it's not just pure vibes. You're a thread regular, you should know that.
 
Knightbat05

Knightbat05

Member
Nov 7, 2022
2,550
Some of y'all get too caught up in these polls, the way some of y'all have such a mood swing based on what the polls say is crazy...
 
ZeoVGM

ZeoVGM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
80,107
Providence, RI
Mr. RPG said:
Jesus fucking Christ.

It can't be any other fucking reason, huh?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

This is a ridiculously aggressive response to a a calmly worded statement that's based in logic and historical precedence. That doesn't meant there can't be other reasons -- because they exist -- but you can't simply handwave the very real problem of misogyny that female politicians face.
 
Speevy

Speevy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
22,065
Trouble said:
Polls always tighten, but she's not slipping in almost every poll. Her polling has been incredibly stable once you toss out the trash polls.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...


Well I think it's more correct to say that the polls have always been tight, but they haven't always shown Michigan within a point. The fact is that there is a small trend in the last week which, if it were true in let's say Georgia and for us, we'd be ecstatic about it. We have to be fair about these things.
 
poptire

poptire

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
11,948
So good that Obama gave an amazing and fiery speech tonight and, in a stark and symbolic contrast, Trump literally shat his pants.
 
Reyes

Reyes

Member
Oct 25, 2017
58,633
Coolest Person in the One Piece OT > Cantiam
ZeoVGM said:
Okay, you're not even trying to argue anything here. You're just getting angry at the most mildly negative takes on the state of the campaign and acting as if Lance and I are claiming she's screwed.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Ohh please I'm not angry just calling stuff for what it is.

If there any actual basis or substance to an argument I've yet to find it all I see is people who no offense to Lance but they over react to any poll and you can see the race has been pretty stable.

So again where is this infighting you brought up?
 
ZeoVGM

ZeoVGM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
80,107
Providence, RI
Bradbatross said:
This is complete nonsense. You're in a bubble.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

No, I'm not.

I still think she's going to win, to be very clear. But you're not being honest with yourself if you don't think she's lost some enthusiasm since the DNC. As has been discussed a number of times in this thread, she has made decisions that have pushed away progressives who were otherwise quite excited about her campaign beforehand.
 
LanceX2

LanceX2

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,152
Reyes said:
Ohh please I'm not angry just calling stuff for what it is.

If there any actual basis or substance to an argument I've yet to find it all I see is people who no offense to Lance but they over react to any poll and you can see the race has been pretty stable.

So again where is this infighting you brought up?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...


I mean. I react to polls but only sometimes over react. Im pretty sure some A and B Polls have been bad for Harris this week.

Yes many are R leaning or pollsters but its giving a narrative that shes losing momentum.

Axelrod and others are saying similar things.

I do understand it comes down to ground game but it is a tiny bit concerning
 

turtle553

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,754
Vault Boy said:
He was the last pre-9/11 president, and those of us who lived through the 90s remember that life in the US was much...calmer, more stable. Hope and a sense of optimism about the future still existed. The economy was pretty good, and politics still had at the very least a sense of decency to it. War was something that existed in the past -- America had learned its lesson about that in Vietnam.

Or maybe I was just young and naive, but that's what it felt like at the time.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It was a short break between the Cold War and The War on Terror. The internet was still fun and you could rent a physical copy of movie and get a pizza on Friday nights. No social media bringing faraway problems into your living room. Blockbuster movies that weren't from comics.

It's probably some combination of youthful rose colored glasses, but being an adult before and after 9/11 was a pretty jarring change.
 
Speevy

Speevy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
22,065
If Michigan folks can hear the awful shit Trump is saying, and conclude "Yeah, give me some of THAT." there's nothing Kamala can do about it. She should however ya know, go there again, and again like she did in Flint.
 

GardenPepper

Member
Oct 28, 2017
20,774
Bradbatross said:
There's actually been plenty of good analysis and data on why no, it's not just pure vibes. You're a thread regular, you should know that.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I've seen plenty of people directly ask you why you feel this way without a response.

I also don't recall seeing any "good analysis and data" showing this. I've seen people in here cite things like rallies, "enthusiasm," yard signs, etc.--none of which amount to much because the method of measuring those is all over the place. I've seen people in here show certain voter registration, but again that doesn't tell us much because we don't know everything we need to know from it (who are they voting for, what is the data across all swing states, demographics, etc.). For instance, I keep seeing people posting stuff about how youth and minority voter registration is up and that's a good thing, but polling continually shows that Trump is showing increased gains with young black male voters, so are those registration numbers actually benefiting Harris?
 
PopQuiz

PopQuiz

Member
Dec 11, 2017
4,751
ZeoVGM said:
No, I'm not.

I still think she's going to win, to be very clear. But you're not being honest with yourself if you don't think she's lost some enthusiasm since the DNC. As has been discussed a number of times in this thread, she has made decisions that have pushed away progressives who were otherwise quite excited about her campaign beforehand.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Genuine question, but has there been any actual data about this? I get the idea that online leftists were more optimistic for Harris pre-DNC and then felt disappointed afterward, but 1) I'm not sure there's actual data that support has eroded, and 2) I'm not sure leftists being disappointed counts as "in-fighting".
 
Reyes

Reyes

Member
Oct 25, 2017
58,633
Coolest Person in the One Piece OT > Cantiam
LanceX2 said:
Yes many are R leaning or pollsters but its giving a narrative that shes losing momentum.

Axelrod and others are saying similar things.

I do understand it comes down to ground game but it is a tiny bit concerning
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Why do you care about stupid narratives?

You really shouldn't be listening to Axelrod one of the worst people on the Obama aparatus to reach into the medium.
 
Trouble

Trouble

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,738
Seattle-ish
It's really not necessary to doom over Harris losing momentum (which she probably has, you can't keep up that level of excitement indefinitely), while Trump's momentum has been basically zero since forever.
 
GulAtiCa

GulAtiCa

Community Resettler
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,173
ZeoVGM said:
It's been that way since the DNC and has only been getting worse.

The enthusiasm that existed prior has largely faded away and been replaced with party in-fighting over some of the campaign's decisions.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
What, don't be silly. The Enthusiasm is going strong. The only infighting is here on Era. lol
 
Leveean

Leveean

Member
Nov 9, 2017
1,239
Harris's averages have been trending downward for a few weeks now. 538 has her at +2.4 now, which is her lowest since early September. Still margin of error stuff and an advantage, but it's there. You can't just discount it because of "trash polls" because they've always been part of the average.
 
ZeoVGM

ZeoVGM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
80,107
Providence, RI
PopQuiz said:
Genuine question, but has there been any actual data about this? I get the idea that online leftists were more optimistic for Harris pre-DNC and then felt disappointed afterward, but 1) I'm not sure there's actual data that support has eroded, and 2) I'm not sure leftists being disappointed counts as "in-fighting".
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I don't really think it's something you can quantify into data outside of standard polling. But it's pretty clear to me that there is a lot more debate about her candidacy amongst those on the left now than there was two months ago. This is caused by topics like her stance (or lack thereof) on Palestine, the campaign's shift away from the "weird" narrative, LGBTQ+ issues seemingly falling by the wayside at the DNC, and trying to court people on the right while frustrating progressives.

Part of it is also the natural flow of an election, especially with a campaign like this, as those first couple months were kind of a special moment with a lot of positivity. But a while back, I realized that I spent the entire 2016 election cycle in a bubble, only listening to things I wanted to hear and dismissing any criticism or negativity. I've tried my best to not do that this time around.
 
Reyes

Reyes

Member
Oct 25, 2017
58,633
Coolest Person in the One Piece OT > Cantiam
Leveean said:
Harris's averages have been trending downward for a few weeks now. 538 has her at +2.4 now, which is her lowest since early September. Still margin of error stuff and an advantage, but it's there. You can't just discount it because of "trash polls" because they've always been part of the average.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Its always been in margin of error.

Early September was the high point of after DNC and been pretty stable.


View: https://x.com/perrybaconjr/status/1844420341034254465
 
Last edited:
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.