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Royalan

Not actually the youngest mod — AP Fact Check
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
14,872
My vibeometer is shifting hard towards Harris not winning. The Hurricane season is not helping.

What's changed? Polling continues tending in Harris' favor, people are already voting and things look good for Harris on that front, and Trump is growing more unhinged by the day.
 

Speevy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
22,065
Another good possibility (positive) is that Trump keeps circling Pennsylvania because someone's telling him Harris is still beating him there.
 

Booshka

Member
May 8, 2018
5,407
Amherst, MA
You'd be best to look it up cause i don't have these things saved. But during one of israels usual gaza slaughters obama was actually threatening to condition aid and biden basically called up yahu and told him to call his bluff or when obama was against inviting yahu to speak in front of congress but biden pushed for it behind the scenes.
Found this, provides a lot of context.

jewishcurrents.org

Joe Biden’s Alarming Record on Israel

No one in the Obama administration did more to shield Netanyahu from consequences.
 

Saucycarpdog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,183

View: https://x.com/pblest/status/1843062707450470447

I think it's worth noting that Trump is some of the same shit that let Biden have a historically solid midterm election.

The average joe hears the anti-trans ad and thinks "What the hell are you even talking about?"
Can't say I've seen that ad. Sounds like something a Redditor made.

My vibeometer is shifting hard towards Harris not winning. The Hurricane season is not helping.
Anybody who believes that crap is clearly getting their Hurricane news from Fox News i.e people who weren't voting Kamala anyway.
 

Lord Fanny

Member
Apr 25, 2020
29,023
What's changed? Polling continues tending in Harris' favor, people are already voting and things look good for Harris on that front, and Trump is growing more unhinged by the day.

Just people being nervous that a lot of the fud around the Biden admin's response to the Hurricane not being good for Harris
 

Inquisitive_Ghost

Cranky Ghost Pokemon
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,387

What's the context for the name of this podcast anyway? It's confused me since I first heard about it.

www.independent.co.uk

After the Musk/Trump rally, there’s a better word for Republicans than ‘weird’

Now that the former president and Tesla CEO have teamed up, there’s only one way to describe the American political right in its current form...
I have never understood why this hasn't been more of a tactic. Like, anywhere. In the world at any time. I guess because the left fears turning off those voters or something. But laughing at fascists is usually one of the most effective ways to disarm them and the reason you can laugh at them at all is because they are embarrassing. They're insecure losers that need to lash out at everyone else to feel good about themselves.
 

Blackie

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,855
Wherever
I think Harris could be given some benefit of the doubt if the treatment towards the uncommitted movement and all that stuff hadn't happened.

But like she's actually done nothing to distance herself from Biden.
This is a valid point and just about my #1 misstep from her so far. However, there are 2 potential mitigating factors that must be considered.

1.) This began during the DNC, which she was not in control of. The old school democrats are still in charge of the DNC and while there is a lot they will do for their hot new frontrunner unfortunately some things they will not do even if she presses them. I suspect this was one of those issues they would not budge on due to corrupt old alliances, AIPAC money, compromised and compromising donors, etc. This is why we need new blood in charge at all levels and to vote/kick all of those old types out. Kamala is that "new" blood, along with many others waiting in the wings. This will take at least a few years to transition fully but luckily there is much more important work we can do outside of the DNC and speeches.

2.) Current support from the Democratic party and donors is likely contingent upon towing the line in very specific ways, especially verbally. Many other senators and congresspeople are likely/obviously on the AIPAC payroll and other similar organizations payroll. If she bucks them on this issue before the election is over it could cause pushback at the worst possible time near the finish line, loss of revenue, public support, even outright revolt as crazy as that might seem in the face of T-dump.

To me it seems like if she indeed wants to break on this but cannot do it without torpedoing her campaign. Yeah you can call it cowardice if you want, I will not fight you on that, but it also comes across as pragmatic cowardice to me. Once in office she can go hog wild and not have to worry about these immediate consequences much until the next election in 4 years (although TBF there is also a lot of damage they can do during a potential first term of presidency for her like trying to get allied congresspeople to vote against her bills in congress in protest and such. My hope is that she will call their bluff as the hot new president who defeated T-dump and still has that untouchable new glow and move forward on holding Bibi's feet to the fire, before eventually throwing him completely into the fire.)

Also: she met with other groups as well recently, but I know some will not be satisfied until she gets back with Uncommitted.
If she can't do anything to differentiate herself from Biden, and she's been part of the administration, and she's given literally little to no lip service to anyone concerned about the atrocities happening -

…why exactly would anyone expect her to be different then Biden except sheer hopium/copium?

Further, and to add some context of politics, if she wins without capitulating to the progressive wing of the party on this issue - what incentive does she have to change her position post win? That actually defies political reasoning.
Hopium and copium are sometimes the best we can do in times like these! Luckily I am going on a bit more than that.

If you look at the language she uses compared to Biden she always puts much more emphasis on the plight of Palestians/Gaza, their suffering and framing things more equal. Yes that is infuriating as 1 side is clearly overpowering military, and yes she always brings up Israel and the terror attack at the music festival and how terrible it was but that is a given as it was a horrific act. It is part of what she has to do to satisfy her allies, donors, the American public and get elected. But when you play her responses and Biden's back to back the difference is clear. She does not have Biden's long history of being a Zionist either, which is HUGE, nor the close relationship Biden seemingly had with Bibi so even the parts of her answers similar to Biden's come across differently with that in mind. The fact that she is married to a jewish man and has that side to her family actually comes across as a plus to me! Especially the things I hear about their beliefs on the situation, especially the kids. Their politics as jewish people who want to right the wrongs of their brethren/sisters in Israel comes across to me.

Also Biden, despite all the good he has done and changes in his positions he has made over the years, is old school in many ways. He is an ancient white man who believed and still believes in a bunch of antiquated stuff. Again he has evolved in many ways, changed his stance for the better on crime, super predators, drugs and all that but his Zionism has never wavered. He never even hides it! He has some "natural" blinders, for sure. Kamala, on the other hand, as a POC and prosecutor without a long relationship to Bibi before he went completely criminally insane (although I have my suspiscions about him being terribly rotten from the start, or hell, even before the start) is steeped in multicultural traditions and that can make a huge difference. She has a completely different lens, superficially much more like Obama's. I believe it goes deeper, too.

As for winning without capitulating to the progressive wing of the party on this issue, and therefore having no incentives for change? I think we have 3 big reasons she would "change" (although again I don't agree with the framing as I believe she is ready for change and simply paying lip service right now so as to not rock the boat before she can fully assume captain-ship of the boat and then rock the crap out of it.)

1.) Even Biden is getting tired of Bibi, and he's been friends with him for years. Kamala just got hear and seems done with his ass. More than just skipping his speech at congress, reports she pissed him off during their private meeting after, she has dealt with his type for years. Whether or not she wants to let Israel stay dominant over Gaza she has gotta be tired of this crappy ally doing whatever he wants whenever. I'm sure the rest of the USA military is. We need Israel not Bibi. I'm sure the conversation has been had multiple times on how to get his raggedy ass out and chart a new course. It makes political sense. One less headache for her to worry about in her first and second term if she can eliminate him quickly.

2.) As a prosecutor it has gotta stick in her craw that she beat T-dump only to have to deal with his political cousin/brother/father. Regardless of how she truly feels about Gaza/Palestine Bibi is exactly the kind of person she would want in jail. Putting him there alone will help the situation, imo.

3.) Cold hard political calculus.
Modern progressive, especially the young, are PISSED about this issue. They, like me, are willing to give her exactly 1 chance in office to show she is gonna be different. Kamala knows this, her team knows this, and she knows she will never win another election if she fumbles this. Hell, even the 2026 midterms might collapse if she can't prove herself on this issue, the economy, and immigration. And if she handles it? She could win incredibly support from muslims/palestinians in this country. Like, generational support. Could be huge.
I was relieved to be wrong about people not rallying behind Harris after becoming the nominee and I hope to be wrong about this. I will still be angry. Still disgusted. All those lives lost and families torn apart when our government could have done something instead of aiding a genocide.
It is a terrible mark of shame/sin, like the genocide of the Native Americans, slavery of African Americans, racism and expulsion of Chinese immigrants after they built USAs vital infrastructure/the railroads, Japanese American citizens imprisoned during WW2, LGBTQIA+ violence during stonewall riots and more, etc. The beat goes on and on and on.

But we can do better, and we WILL do better. We always get there, eventually (so far, historically). We evolved from all that and improved and if history is any indication we will do so again, are ALREADY doing so again, right now. The conversations we are having right now on Palestine and its plight don't even compare to what things were like just 10, 20 years ago.

Change is coming, mark my words.

(I have posted way more than I normally do today and as a habitual lurker it has me worried I am starting to run my mouth too much so will withdraw from further discourse for now on this matter. Sorry all!)
 

Lord Fanny

Member
Apr 25, 2020
29,023
Please explain. Because I'm apparently not receiving the same vibrations.

I mean we are constantly being told that this is a razor thin race that either candidate could win. Is it any wonder that someone would be worried that something like reaction to a historic disaster could tilt that scale just a little to the other side?
 

Speevy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
22,065
Poli-ERA - Concepts of a Thread
Poli-ERA - Weathering the storms together.
Poli-ERA - When we fight, we win.
Poli-ERA - We are not going back.
Poli-ERA - Time to turn the page.
 

Xorus

Member
May 27, 2024
548
Can't say I've seen that ad. Sounds like something a Redditor made.

Anybody who believes that crap is clearly getting their Hurricane news from Fox News i.e people who weren't voting Kamala anyway.

I think you are severely underestimating the potential and effects of disinformation that can spread amongst voters, let alone areas that are impacted by a natural disaster

It doesn't need to be hard right wing disinformation either, but just dumb shit like "FEMA spent money on immigrants and they are now broke" to tie this elections various issues together in a way that pushes people toward Trump or away from Harris (economy, current administration, immigration).
 

NetMapel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,972
Modern day journalism is no longer interested in truth and fact, only reactions and engagement. It's a sad reality.
You know, if so much of journalism now is about farming for reactions and engagements, you'd think it's a breath of fresh air to go the opposite! Tell the truth with passion and conviction. Stand out from the other articles all just saying the same thing for engagements!
 

Speevy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
22,065
Isn't FEMA on the ground literally right now? I am confused how that hurts Kamala.


There are a lot of fake and misleading information floating around, but I think the crux of what these idiots are trying to say is that FEMA money has been spent on migrants, or that FEMA is itself keeping regular people from helping (don't shoot me, just reading the news outlets reporting on Trump).

In any case, I hope people get the help they need and the liars get their comeuppance.
 

PAFenix

Unshakable Resolve
Member
Nov 21, 2019
17,112
Isn't FEMA on the ground literally right now? I am confused how that hurts Kamala.

According to my mother, they have no money though because it all went to housing "illegals."

Someone above mentioned the "bad response" is coming from Fox News and since she's an avid watcher, that tracks.

I don't know anything about FEMA though so I couldn't clap back.
 

Xorus

Member
May 27, 2024
548
There are a lot of fake and misleading information floating around, but I think the crux of what these idiots are trying to say is that FEMA money has been spent on migrants, or that FEMA is itself keeping regular people from helping (don't shoot me, just reading the news outlets reporting on Trump).

In any case, I hope people get the help they need and the liars get their comeuppance.

Yep. Facts don't really matter.

Heard the FEMA disinformation bullshit too many times this last week in NC. Is it gonna move the needle? Who knows.

But it's out there and the disinformation campaign is in effect.
 

Akainu

Unshakable Resolve
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,565
Everywhere and nowhere
I have never understood why this hasn't been more of a tactic. Like, anywhere. In the world at any time. I guess because the left fears turning off those voters or something. But laughing at fascists is usually one of the most effective ways to disarm them and the reason you can laugh at them at all is because they are embarrassing. They're insecure losers that need to lash out at everyone else to feel good about themselves.
Again dems listening to the wrong people they stopped using weird cause some pollster whispering in their ear said it was too mean same as the not going back chant cause it wasn't "forward thinking enough".
 

NetMapel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,972
According to my mother, they have no money though because it all went to housing "illegals."

Someone above mentioned the "bad response" is coming from Fox News and since she's an avid watcher, that tracks.

I don't know anything about FEMA though so I couldn't clap back.
If you were to ask your mom to watch CNN, MSNBC or other news channels instead, would she said that these channels have a liberal bias? If so, I wonder how effective it would be to point out that if she accepts these channels might have a liberal bias, and therefore could cover the hurricane issue in a more favourable manner. Then it should be said that a conservative-biased Fox News would also be incentivized to cover the hurricane in less favourable view. So if she wants to keep watching Fox News, that is something to take into consideration…
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,748
The disinformation around the hurricane has as much of a chance to hurt Trump as Harris. This sort of stuff is unpredictable, it may make people clamp onto immigration rhetoric or it might make them bitter at those spreading the lies.

This isn't some easy to predict thing.
 

Royalan

Not actually the youngest mod — AP Fact Check
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
14,872
Democrats haven't stopped using the word weird to describe the right. Both Kamala and Tim still use it in speeches.

They shifted messaging when Trump got more unhinged and started attempting to use the word himself. By this place it was getting a little played out, as the kids would say.

I think the general message of "aren't you tired of this?" is pretty effective.
 

Zeliard

Member
Jun 21, 2019
11,680
Again dems listening to the wrong people they stopped using weird cause some pollster whispering in their ear said it was too mean same as the not going back chant cause it wasn't "forward thinking enough".

Yeah but it's also very vague. What does it mean to continually call someone weird?

Doesn't mean anything. Weird can be good. Weird can be awful. Weird just means different. A lot of good people were and are considered weird as fuck.

Trump and Vance aren't weird. They're, unfortunately, very normal (which is not synonymous with "stable.") They're the status quo. All it does is buy into the idea that Trump is unique and different in some way, which is exactly what he wants and in fact what he campaigns on.
 

itsyaboymin

Banned
Aug 8, 2024
405
Ignore button is going to get a lot of use in the next month. Recommend for people feeling anxious or annoyed at vapid dooming / punditry to use it liberally.
 

Zeliard

Member
Jun 21, 2019
11,680
User banned (1 week): misrepresenting moderation
lol

out of sight, out of mind indeed

I like how both the Lebanon and Palestine thread banned US election talk but then you come here and it's people openly bragging about how they put "doomers" on ignore

apparently there's no place here to actually talk about it.
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
15,523
Again dems listening to the wrong people they stopped using weird cause some pollster whispering in their ear said it was too mean same as the not going back chant cause it wasn't "forward thinking enough".
Where are you getting this from? I remember seeing a report that claimed that Kamala's campaign continued to use the 'weird' messaging despite a strategist telling them not to.
 

Lord Fanny

Member
Apr 25, 2020
29,023
Isn't FEMA on the ground literally right now? I am confused how that hurts Kamala.

FEMA's budget has been stretched too thin this year and there is a lot of misinformation about the situation and what FEMA is and isn't doing. It's hard to say what will stick and what won't, but while the issue is largely one of climate change and GOP fucking the budget up, traditionally disaster response has been tied to the current administration fairly or unfairly.

There's been no reliable polling since the hurricane hit to see if there is any noticeable impact or trend, but again in an election that we always talk about as being razor thin and a toss up, it's not hard to believe negative perception of the current administration this close to election could be a potential tipping point. I admit it's crossed my mind as well.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
43,151
lol

out of sight, out of mind indeed

I like how both the Lebanon and Palestine thread banned US election talk but then you come here and it's people openly bragging about how they put "doomers" on ignore

apparently there's no place here to actually talk about it.


Why are you conflating the people wanting to get away from the people dooming about Harris's chances with people talking about I/P?

I mean for fuck's sake people can't even take mental health breaks without being accused of shit.