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Rychu

Rychu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,645
Utah, USA
scitek said:
How much could Harris actually get done with just the House and not the Senate?
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Not much. Just executive orders. And with a conservative SCOTUS, many of those executive orders that do things that are life changing would be struck down. Senate is very important to get.

But if Harris wins and we get the House and we end up with 49 Senate seats, we just need to pick up one seat in 2026 (which is way more favorable to Dems than 2024), hold onto the House and maybe we can finally blow up that damn filibuster and have 2 years of trifecta.
 
shinobi602

shinobi602

Verified
Oct 24, 2017
10,127
Adder7806

Adder7806

Member
Dec 16, 2018
4,307
adj_noun said:
Darth-Vader-and-Luke-swear-to-find-Palpatine-together.jpg


yes cheney still sucks
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Why is Darth Vader dressed like Storm Shadow from GI Joe?
 
Volimar

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
43,152
scitek said:
How much could Harris actually get done with just the House and not the Senate?
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The answer is "some". It mostly depends on getting the measures to the floor at all. Having the House will help with that. But dem senators won't get their bills brought up. And there will be the same kind of nothing Republican bills voted on and then beaten in the House that are just for messaging and a big waste of everyone's time.

The bigger concern for me is SCOTUS picks. Collins and Murkowski have voted for dem picks for judicial nominations before, and I don't have reason to doubt they will again...except a SCOTUS pick is a lot bigger deal and it means we likely wouldn't get as liberal a justice as we'd like if we have to rely on a Republican to get us over the line.
 
Rychu

Rychu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,645
Utah, USA
Volimar said:
The answer is "some". It mostly depends on getting the measures to the floor at all. Having the House will help with that. But dem senators won't get their bills brought up. And there will be the same kind of nothing Republican bills voted on and then beaten in the House that are just for messaging and a big waste of everyone's time.

The bigger concern for me is SCOTUS picks. Collins and Murkowski have voted for dem picks for judicial nominations before, and I don't have reason to doubt they will again...except a SCOTUS pick is a lot bigger deal and it means we likely wouldn't get as liberal a justice as we'd like if we have to rely on a Republican to get us over the line.
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FWIW, Justice Jackson's vote was 53-47 with Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins all joining Democrats for her SCOTUS nomination.
en.wikipedia.org

Ketanji Brown Jackson Supreme Court nomination - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Xuxa Fan

Xuxa Fan

Member
Apr 30, 2023
750
Volimar said:
Between this and the Putin endorsement, Harris really is making inroads in the "just plain evil" demographic.
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Not that Dick Cheney could ever be mistaken for a paragon of virtue, but he is an old school establishment republican. So are the Bushes, Mitt Romney's, Asa Hutchinson, George Will's, William Kristol's, etc.. So I'm curious if Trump loses this election, will there be a concerted effort by establishment republicans to retake the party? Can they retake control of the apparatus and retain the maga voter base or is the rot so deeply engrained to change course?
 
Xyer

Xyer

Avenger
Aug 26, 2018
8,488
So much doom today. Sheesh.

Can't imagine how apocalyptic it'll feel here if Harris has a bad debate performance and Trump "wins" the debate somehow.
 
itschris

itschris

Member
Oct 27, 2017
832
Volimar said:
The answer is "some". It mostly depends on getting the measures to the floor at all. Having the House will help with that. But dem senators won't get their bills brought up. And there will be the same kind of nothing Republican bills voted on and then beaten in the House that are just for messaging and a big waste of everyone's time.

The bigger concern for me is SCOTUS picks. Collins and Murkowski have voted for dem picks for judicial nominations before, and I don't have reason to doubt they will again...except a SCOTUS pick is a lot bigger deal and it means we likely wouldn't get as liberal a justice as we'd like if we have to rely on a Republican to get us over the line.
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If the Republicans hold the senate and a SCOTUS seat opens up, I'm expecting they will hold it open until they lose their majority or a Republican wins the White House, whichever comes first.
 
Rychu

Rychu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,645
Utah, USA
Xuxa Fan said:
Not that Dick Cheney could ever be mistaken for a paragon of virtue, but he is an old school establishment republican. So are the Bushes, Mitt Romney's, Asa Hutchinson, George Will's, William Kristol's, etc.. So I'm curious if Trump loses this election, will there be a concerted effort by establishment republicans to retake the party? Can they retake control of the apparatus and retain the maga voter base or is the rot so deeply engrained to change course?
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I think it's more likely that the moderate old school establishment Republicans become Democrats than it is that they retake the GOP honestly. The GOP will go deeper and deeper into culture wars and propaganda because their base loves it.

What surprised me today, perhaps more than Dick Cheney voting for Harris… was Liz Cheney endorsing Allred and saying she's going to do work for him to organize to get out the vote for Allred to be Texas's next senator.

The reason that was surprising is a lot of these so called Republicans have said they are just voting for Harris to save democracy but are still Republicans, they're still going to vote Republican down ballot but if Cheney is endorsing Allred and trying to get other liberals elected beyond just voting for Harris, then it's possible that she is actually trying to become part of the Democrat tent. And the same might happen for Adam Kinzinger. Maybe not so much as changing party affiliation to Democrat, but caucusing with Democrats similar to independents that are technically not Democrats.
 
Volimar

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
43,152
Xuxa Fan said:
Not that Dick Cheney could ever be mistaken for a paragon of virtue, but he is an old school establishment republican. So are the Bushes, Mitt Romney's, Asa Hutchinson, George Will's, William Kristol's, etc.. So I'm curious if Trump loses this election, will there be a concerted effort by establishment republicans to retake the party? Can they retake control of the apparatus and retain the maga voter base or is the rot so deeply engrained to change course?
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Yeah here in Ohio there's been kind of a war for the soul (for lack of a better term) of the Republican Party between MAGAs and traditional Republicans.
 
FrostweaveBandage

FrostweaveBandage

Unshakable Resolve
Member
Sep 27, 2019
8,521
Xuxa Fan said:
Not that Dick Cheney could ever be mistaken for a paragon of virtue, but he is an old school establishment republican. So are the Bushes, Mitt Romney's, Asa Hutchinson, George Will's, William Kristol's, etc.. So I'm curious if Trump loses this election, will there be a concerted effort by establishment republicans to retake the party? Can they retake control of the apparatus and retain the maga voter base or is the rot so deeply engrained to change course?
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I don't think the MAGA base will forgive the Never Trumpers ever. In fact, I think the right is splintered for a long time after this. There will be those like Vivek and DeSantis that will try to stand up again, and it won't work. Nikki Haley probably thinks she has a shot as long as she hangs around.

I'd bet dollars to donuts George P. Bush tries to take on the MAGA mantle at some point, too. He went full MAGA some time ago to the chagrin of the rest of the family. Otherwise, I don't know who tries to fix things. Vance? Heritage still seems to be pulling the strings so they'll be the ones to decide.
 
Starburns

Starburns

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,055
Denver
itschris said:

View: https://x.com/jonfavs/status/1832137071928209780

(The quote is from this Washington Post article: Kamala Harris ran her office like a prosecutor. Not everyone liked that.)
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My boss is like this. He's the president of the company, and the dude misses FUCKING NOTHING. I've worked for him for 4 years, we've been friends for 20 years, and I had no idea he operated on that high of a level. Consequently, everyone in the company has to be on their shit because he will catch it if you miss something. Shockingly our company's financial health and reputation have only grown in the two years he's been president of the company. When someone hyper capable is the primary leadership position it can be a very good thing, even if it means more work.
 
Rychu

Rychu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,645
Utah, USA
Judge said:
The even better timeline is Tester defies the odds and keeps the seat, and then Ds win Florida just for giggles.
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The best timeline is that Dems defy all odds and expand their majority by 2 seats by flipping Nebraska (the independent running against the Republican there), Texas and Florida, while also keeping both Ohio and Montana for a total of 53 seats.

But that is pretty much impossible
 
The Adder

The Adder

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,238
Rychu said:

View: https://x.com/stephen_neukam/status/1832091751471054876?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA

View: https://x.com/ecaliberseven/status/1832048318551085191?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA
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I'll say what I said before: Florida is in play every election. Cracking the ceiling that makes it winnable is the hard part. We have a bunch of legs up this election between abortion and weed that make cracking that ceiling very possible and we need to go for it. Especially with our fundraising this cycle.
 
DevilPuncher

DevilPuncher

"This guy are sick" and Aggressively Mediocre
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,282
Rick Scott is such a rat fuck that I hope he gets his past-due comeuppance. Don't have too much faith in Florida though.
 
CallMeShaft

CallMeShaft

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
3,444
So neither Bush voted for Trump in 2016, with HW admitting he was voting for Hillary and W saying he'd write in a candidate. McCain's son says he's endorsing Harris and his (asshole) daughter says she's not voting for either candidate. Mitt Romney has publicly stated he's not voting for Trump (last I remember he was supporting Joe before he dropped out). Now you've got W's VP (Cheney) and his daughter (Liz) voting for Harris. Hell, Trump's VP the last time isn't endorsing him now.

If the average Republican voter were moderately sane and level headed, hearing all of these people (most of which they supported previously) oppose Trump would easily be enough to torpedo his chances at winning. It should've been enough back in 2016. All the while seemingly every formerly high ranking Dem is voting for Harris, including Jimmy Carter, who is making it his mission to live long enough to vote for her. It's just insane for me to think about, yet hardly surprising that Republicans don't give a crap about this and will continue to support the guy no questions asked.
 
Rychu

Rychu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,645
Utah, USA
krazykazama89 said:
PA related:


View: https://x.com/tbonier/status/1832118388660879533?t=ZjWqZU3WV6zv8Kr00IFhOA&s=19
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Worth noting though (that I think Bonier might be missing) that in 2020 and 2022, you had to go online to register if you wanted to vote. In 2023, Shapiro signed automatic voter registration into law, so any time anyone comes into the DMV, for any reason, they get auto-registered as an "independent" voter (unless they change their registration to Democrat or Republican).

The point here is that in past election cycles, registering to vote was indicative of being a high engagement voter who is seriously considering voting or plans to vote. With the new law changes, many of those new registered voters might not be interested in voting and are just low-engagement or low-info voters that are being registered to vote because they moved to PA, had to get a new ID card, had to get a drivers license or some other reason for going to the DMV unrelated to voting. I don't expect 80%+ of new registered voters to turnout for this reason.

Take a look at this pie chart to see how many of these new voter registrations are from AVR:

View: https://x.com/michaelpruser/status/1831332084922634645?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA
 
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FrenchToastDisciple

FrenchToastDisciple

Member
Oct 27, 2017
308
The republican endorsements, imo, have more sway over independent undecided voters than republicans. I think the message is something like "go ahead, vote for Harris, she's moderate because these republicans are backing her."
 
Bronlonius

Bronlonius

Member
Oct 29, 2017
555
PepsimanVsJoe said:
Obviously the Politics thread can't always have good vibes, but sometimes I wonder about the posters who have nothing but bad vibes.
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Yup, and when you talk positive about this 2008-like movement going on, you're accused of coping LOL ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I guess that's better than dooming and remaining forever skeptical no matter the myriad evidence out there that this will likely be a huge win for Kamala. That video yesterday showing tens of millions of conservatives not voting for Trump in the swing states is huge, even if only half of them show up, it's over with and that's not even taking into account the huge surge of youth voters and new women voters. I know, broken record and all that. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Happy Friday! Cheers!!
 
The Adder

The Adder

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,238
Rychu said:
I think it's more likely that the moderate old school establishment Republicans become Democrats than it is that they retake the GOP honestly. The GOP will go deeper and deeper into culture wars and propaganda because their base loves it.

What surprised me today, perhaps more than Dick Cheney voting for Harris… was Liz Cheney endorsing Allred and saying she's going to do work for him to organize to get out the vote for Allred to be Texas's next senator.

The reason that was surprising is a lot of these so called Republicans have said they are just voting for Harris to save democracy but are still Republicans, they're still going to vote Republican down ballot but if Cheney is endorsing Allred and trying to get other liberals elected beyond just voting for Harris, then it's possible that she is actually trying to become part of the Democrat tent. And the same might happen for Adam Kinzinger. Maybe not so much as changing party affiliation to Democrat, but caucusing with Democrats similar to independents that are technically not Democrats.
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There are also Republicans who are trying to take back their party by helping the Dems blow them out until they've flushed away the MAGA wing in hopes Trumps base prefers winning with normal Republican villainy to losing with their preferred Republican super villainy.
 
iksenpets

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,395
Dallas, TX
Rychu

Rychu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,645
Utah, USA
iksenpets said:
It's always been you have to invest in all three, MT/FL/TX. No one of them do you have better than like 30% odds, but you have to be in position to move quickly if you get a lucky break in any of of them
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If you look at fundraising numbers, FL's fundraising is pretty terrible compared to MT and TX. But I agree Dems should cast a wide net to have multiple options of preserving their majority, however of a long shot it might be.
 

LeStranger

Member
Mar 10, 2024
558
I wouldn't be surprised if the October surprise is Nikki Haley endorsement of Harris. The Haley supporters for Harris seems like a test balloon. I still think she wants to position herself as life after Trump, and is willing to gamble a Trump loss will snap the GOP back towards the middle.

She has no future in the current party, and if Trump wins her political career is over.
 
shiba5

shiba5

I shed
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
16,698
LeStranger said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the October surprise is Nikki Haley endorsement of Harris. The Haley supporters for Harris seems like a test balloon. I still think she wants to position herself as life after Trump, and is willing to gamble a Trump loss will snap the GOP back towards the middle.

She has no future in the current party, and if Trump wins her political career is over.
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She already endorsed Trump.
 
BWoog

BWoog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
40,782
LeStranger said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the October surprise is Nikki Haley endorsement of Harris. The Haley supporters for Harris seems like a test balloon. I still think she wants to position herself as life after Trump, and is willing to gamble a Trump loss will snap the GOP back towards the middle.

She has no future in the current party, and if Trump wins her political career is over.
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Naahhh she's sticking with Trump until the end. If he loses, THEN she'll say "I TOLD YOU HE'D LOSE!!!"
 
OnionPowder

OnionPowder

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,839
Orlando, FL
Bengraven said:
I love the idea and as a chubby ugly white dude who looks like he'd be MAGA, I'd be down. Lol.

I've only seen the weed signs though. Tons of YES on 3. A couple NOs next to churches and law offices here in JAX.
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Exactly. As another chubby white guy, it feels like I should be weaponizing my identity in practical ways.

Yeah, I've seen a ton of yes on 3, especially outside of weed shops. This is the first I've seen an anti-prop 4 sign, which is 1 sign too many for my tastes...
 
SilentPanda

SilentPanda

Member
Nov 6, 2017
15,740
Earth

Treasury recovers $1.3 billion in unpaid taxes from high-wealth tax dodgers


The IRS has collected $1.3 billion from high-wealth tax dodgers since last fall, the agency announced Friday, crediting spending that has ramped up collection enforcement through President Joe Biden's signature climate, health care and tax package signed into law in 2022.
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In 2023 and 2024 the IRS launched a series of initiatives aimed at pursuing high-wealth individuals who have failed to pay their tax debts. The IRS said the campaign is focused on taxpayers with more than $1 million in income and more than $250,000 in recognized tax debt.
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Agency officials said since the program's launch, almost 80% of the 1,600 millionaires targeted by the IRS for failing to pay a delinquent tax debt have now made a payment, leading to over $1.1 billion recovered. And in the first six months of a new February 2024 initiative, the IRS collected $172 million from 21,000 wealthy taxpayers who have not filed tax returns since 2017.
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That debunked claim comes from a plan the Treasury Department proposed in 2021 to bring on that many IRS employees over the next decade if it got the money. At least 50,000 IRS employees are expected to retire over the next five years.


The National Taxpayer Advocate, the independent IRS watchdog, issued a 2023 annual report stating that the IRS employs roughly 681 armed agents.
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apnews.com

Treasury recovers $1.3 billion in unpaid taxes from high-wealth tax dodgers

The IRS has collected $1.3 billion from high-wealth tax dodgers since last fall, the agency says, crediting spending that has ramped up collection enforcement through President Joe Biden's signature climate, health care and tax package signed into law in 2022.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
Royalan

Royalan

Not actually the youngest mod — AP Fact Check
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
14,872
Kamala Reads. Here's Why That's Bad for Harris.
 
Rychu

Rychu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,645
Utah, USA
LeStranger said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the October surprise is Nikki Haley endorsement of Harris. The Haley supporters for Harris seems like a test balloon. I still think she wants to position herself as life after Trump, and is willing to gamble a Trump loss will snap the GOP back towards the middle.

She has no future in the current party, and if Trump wins her political career is over.
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She endorsed Trump and she tried to sue Haley Supporters for Harris for using her name.

View: https://x.com/briantylercohen/status/1816607904352600562?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA
 
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