The fact that news outlets didn't immediately turn to Harris and splintered off in search of their own dream nominee should tell you how favorably people see her.
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US Politics |OT 1| Smoked Filled Mar-A-Lago Rooms
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That's great, but they're both competing for the same office, so we have to equate the two. To do otherwise is to betray the severity of the situation.
Yet the moment the opposite side falters in any way, everyone on it as well as everyone covering it eats it up like ravenous vultures.
What the fuck are we doing?
Look, I just want to say this: you guys are having a discussion. Nothing that gets posted on Era will affect what happens next one way or another. That means you can have an honest discussion about what you believe and the reasoning that got you there. You don't need to worry about the GOP using your posts in shitty ways or convince voters of your side or whatever. It's a discussion, just treat it like one.
As I said earlier I genuinely think people severely underestimate what misogynoir does for a "swing voter."
We live in the same country that "Couldn't get a beer with Hillary."
It fits with the reportng earlier today where Senate Democrats say they think he is insulated and being protected from bad news by his hangers-on:
At this point I'm really starting to believe the stink of age and possible cognitive decline is too set in to fight against, especially if this interview is the sign of their best to counteract it.
Trump's base obviously doesn't care, but our base and undecideds/independents clearly do.
Trump's base obviously doesn't care, but our base and undecideds/independents clearly do.
There is also the fact that largely she didn't really make a name for herself as the VP back in 2020, Biden camp has treated her VP position like something pre Dick Cheney, non-existent save for tie breaking vote in the senate. Which means all negatives toward Biden become her negatives because people don't know her a personal level only that she is another member of the administration. Its a gamble but I am leaning more and more they need to give Biden a chance to have a graceful end to his campaign and cede the way for his running mate to take up the mantle. I do believe there is a real narcissism level issue at hand here.
The way I think should be approached is with care basically a "Decided to fulfill my term as president and place my support and trust into the person who has had my back since the start to see things through, sometimes the bravest thing is knowing when to let someone else do the job you set out to do because they are best possible chance of fulfilling it." There is bravery in knowing when to quit and give someone else a chance. If Kamala Harris wins he will be well remembered for taking that step. They need to give a chance for it not to be a choice of punishment but in this is the best path forward for what he stands for as President. He can still be there to help make that happened.
If you don't understand the optics he was facing this interview then I don't know what to tell you. The first thing millions of Americans are going to see of him since the debate is this interview where he sounds like shit.
Yeah there have been a few polls that shows she polls a few points better IIRC.
I'd probably be more worried as to how she would do in the rust belt states as that is where the election will be decided, but you could argue that she might boost the Black vote in Detroit/Philly too.
His voice isn't great, but it sounds like his normal voice?
- Had you cited a long history of her polling better than Biden, I would be inclined to agree that this has merit. But we don't have enough to say whether or not this is the case, and will be the case if it wasn't a hypothetical situation and people are worried about the election (look at how flared tensions are across this board)
- Sure...but Biden can also campaign? Like, sure, I have worries about his continued endurance. But his schedule thus far has not indicated an inability to campaign.
- This I agree with. But would her thumping Trump in a debate be the key to winning the election? I doubt it. I'm also going to point out, Kamala has had some shaky debate performances - she got bodied by Tulsi and honestly didn't impress against Pence.
- Her favorability for the past four years has been in-line with Biden's...?
- Sure - but money will come regardless of the nominee.
- Again...her approval rating and favorability has not historically trended higher than Biden's?
Right now, in post-debate polling, she is polling 3 or 4 points better than Biden. Usually tied with Trump, 1 point below Trump or 1 point leading him. Biden has dropped to being -4 or -5 with Trump winning the election in pretty much every nationwide poll.
I mean, you can say that, and you'd be right on the context. But it's not for us to "buy it." Whenever Democrats have been weak on their nominee, they've gotten creamed by Republicans.
Now, does this ultimately mean that they shouldn't do it? Perhaps not. The only option I've seen go up that I've been completely against as pure fantasy is a truly contested convention that attempts to skip over Harris. That would be insane. But going with Harris, while there's at least a path there, is still a shot in the dark. We've got nothing but favorability polling to go on, tight polling at that, and historically we know what tends to happen to women in politics and their favorability when they're not in the driver's seat vs when they aren't.
(Seriously where was all this love for Kamala just weeks ago??? I wanna know. lol)
Personally, I'm not yet at the point where I'm seeing either option as the clear choice. They're both fraught with their own perils.
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In the polls I've seen she polls about a point better than Biden. That is well within margin of error. I agree that the rest of these points do have some merit but they do not outweigh any of the very real cons of choosing her or anyone else in my opinion.
If Biden withdraws, his delegates can vote for whomever. They do not have to necessarily vote for Harris. Besides Clyburn no one else as far as we know is trying to advocate for her as an alternative publicly or privately. I mean why would they choose the VP of an historically unpopular president who barely polls any better?
What I mean is that they aren't held to the same standards because they don't follow the same rules. As you have seen with the erosion of protections lately, Trump is in a better position to have a firm grip on power in a way that a Democrat wouldn't, and a socialist leader would have even less influence on the government. It's the same office in name, but not in practice, so that is why it's a losing battle to equate the two, it's not that simple. Conservatives are overwhelmingly represented at higher levels of government and in the owner class, so their ability to influence and control the country is much higher than those that are trying to regulate, reform or full on revolt against this white supremacist capitalist system.
The man is still probably physically sick. You can't just will yourself into health. That's different than mental decline concerns.
Kamala could get out there and hammer home the abortion issue to kingdom come, start pointing at Trump losing his mind, and have the very high benefit of being in her 50s.
Even after the debate I was fine with sticking with Biden but I think Harris is the way to go now, because as others have said, it's not like he's going to get younger in the next four months.
It's the firehouse treatment aka "give them something else to talk about". Biden team is completely idiotic cause they keep feeding the media more to report on and keeps the story in the news. It should be just "I'm running" and immediately switch the topic to something else. Imagine something like he went around the day after giving big checks to people with medical or student debt signifying him forgiving his debt?
Do you have any links to this? I'd like to read them, see what polls they are, etc.
Democrats are ALREADY weak on Biden. There's no putting the genie back in the bottle. Multiple house Dems are now on the record in public interviews calling for him to step down.
Thank you for the detailed reply. It's just very disheartening. All we can do is keep learning and helping others learn, I guess.
If they don't then they have to come to terms with how no one but Kamala has been close to Biden in polls.
I've been searching for these polls and I cannot find them. She polls roughly the same as Biden in every poll I've seen.
This is true. But there's a difference between Dems being weak on Biden, and Dems ditching Biden and essentially anointing Trump a kingslayer.
Just sayin' these are the things people need to be thinking about!
Because we've seen the polling and Kamala Harris is the only one that polls as well (and in fact better) than Biden. Buttigieg, Newsom, Whitmer, Pritzker, etc all poll worse.
- yes, this is a wait and see.
- Biden cannot campaign! He is doing like one rally a day. We need someone to barnstorm the country. Joe didn't even talk to any other elected officials until days after the campaign! He said he can't do events past 8pm? That is not sustainable.
- Yes, her winning a debate is good.
- No, Democratic donors are starting to withhold their money to Biden. Reed Hastings and the Disney heiress are huge signals to the donor community. It's going to get worse.
- Her approvals are now higher than Biden's are.
We seriously need more data on Kamala vs trump, favourabilty and how she would do in the swing states.
The big worry is her campaigning skills, even Biden how he is seems to be better on the stump.
The big worry is her campaigning skills, even Biden how he is seems to be better on the stump.
And I can tell you that if this continues, Biden will be weaker with Democrats than Kamala will.
I imagine that the vast majority of people's exposure to Biden today was the Wisconsin rally.
Hey I never hated Harris and in fact felt annoyed after having such a spirited Team with Biden and Obama that a similar thing didn't appear to manifest. There are still some aspects of Harris that are up in the air from her campaigns and even VP work back in 2020, but we haven't really even "seen" much of her doing stuff which can be both a negative and positive. Negative because it means establishing trust coming from a negative applied administration, but also positive in that she is in a position too make a name for herself separate from Biden.
Yes, until now. We need to wait and see, but in the one H2H polling we've gotten, she's does as well or better than Biden. Biden is also currently amidst a slide and does worse the higher quality the poll is. It's up to you whether you believe this is his floor (it probably isn't).
Right, and I think the idea Democrats can only win with Biden on the ticket just isn't true, and if some of the energy convincing people Biden wasn't senile went towards convincing people to vote for Kamala (or whoever), I don't think it would go worse than Biden. People are gonna vote against Trump.
Take a look at CNN's post-debate poll. You're using the AVERAGE of all polls, not post-debate polling. Granted, we need a lot more data but we haven't had much polling on Harris VS Trump.
View: https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1808232545152029081?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA
View: https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1808174403231924401?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA
View: https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1808352367131123811?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA
Maybe he doesn't want to relive the worst moments of his political career. Personally, I know I wouldn't want to watch a video of myself as I fall into senility. Overall, it would be a despairing experience. I really do pity him.
I think you are completely disconnected from the average American if you think this
Biden literally reached his lowest approval rating ever on 538. I don't know how much more evidence you need!
This is where I'm at. The weight of the discussion here and online has been about the cons of Biden staying in, but I hope people aren't underestimating the shitstorm that will be triggered by forcing him out.
Like, do people actually think this will get better? There is still four months of this left. You have to believe that the debate is a one-off, weird, never going to happen again scenario.
It's not.
Also as an aside people are genuinely gonna ruin their social media algorithms if they "like a moth to a flame" their way towards every single account disparaging Biden atm. How TF did Benny Johnson get posted ITT....
What else would they have been exposed to today regarding Biden? I'm talking the average voter and not someone as terminally online as myself.
That can't be accurate, more people probably saw that 2020 misquote on TikTok than that rally.
Agreed on the getting better part, that goes against the lived experience of aging that everyone can relate to.
Again this comes down to if you want to lose with certainty or take a bigger risk in the hopes of winning. And if you do not take that big risk, you cannot claim Trump is an existential threat. And if Trump is not an existential threat to democracy, then what else have Democrats been lying to people about?
Again this comes down to if you want to lose with certainty or take a bigger risk in the hopes of winning. And if you do not take that big risk, you cannot claim Trump is an existential threat. And if Trump is not an existential threat to democracy, then what else have Democrats been lying to people about?
Debates don't win elections.
Both the media and voters agreed that Reagan utterly lost in the first debate against Mondale and yet Reagan won in a 49-state landslide.
So there's a single poll that shows her doing better than Biden? The other poll has Biden and Trump tied and Harris doing a single point better. A single poll doesn't instill any confidence that she would do any better.
Mondale was at least able to win his home state. Looking at the polls, same can't be said for Scranton Joe.
Yeah even people who like Biden personally, they are extremely uncomfortable with having someone who is over 80 years old, with clear wear and tear, be the most powerful person in the world for another 4 and a half years.
When I hear people complain about Biden, 80% of time it's age related. With the remaining 20% being a mixture of inflation and Gaza (I live in California). No party in American history has run a candidate this old. This is on the heals of RBG and Dianne Feinstein who were clearly in office way past the point they should have been. The democratic party and the country suffered because they didn't step down before it got ridiculous. There are a lot of people in the Democratic party who are simply tired of old politicians refusing to relinquish power and the handlers around them who give them cover. This is being reflected in Biden's low approval numbers despite the majority of Democrats liking him personally or thinking he has done a pretty solid job all things considered.
The horrendous debate made a lot of Democrats feel Biden was less a Bernie Sanders old person and more of a RBG and Feinstein on borrowed time.
And the clips that are coming out from the ABC interview, Biden still doesn't sound great. Not debate bad, but not Dark Brandon good either. His vitality does seem to fluctuate in ways that's still unclear to the rest of us and that's a scary prospect for the fall.
As a general rule, I would encourage this.
For example, I haven't watched any of the clips in full yet. Played one for a few seconds just to gauge his voice (which is his #1 issue, imo), heard that it was much clearer but still hoarse, but then paused the clip because I had to run to Target.
But it's surprising to me how positive my Threads feed is on Biden's interview and rally today compared to this thread, as I only follow journalists.
(and then I remember that I mostly follow Black journalists)
I'm going to wait until I can sit and watch the entire interview before I form a full opinion on it, but I think it's tough to say that people are univerally down on his performance today. That's just not what I'm seeing.
Polls reflect the moment and circumstance.
You put Kamala in the driver's seat with the full backing of the Democratic party behind her, have her do a few energized rallies, and I think those numbers will go up. Perhaps that's me with delusional thinking, but I've got to believe.
An energized Harris out there would be a very large contrast against her opponent right now.
So? If the media wants Trump back, they'll do whatever they want to get him back.
This is about getting a candidate in place that the vast majority of American voters thinks can mentally and physically do the job. The media is inconsequential at that point. They'll continue doing what they do. It's up to the campaign to convince voters, as it always is.
No one will be perfect for four months, they just won't. Like, I honestly do not give a fuck if they dump Biden, but the rose colored glasses some people have about what that will actually look like is misguided.
This thread from Twitter sums it up pretty well, IMO: there's a structural issue in how the media and the parties work, structural issues that mean that infighting, self-destruction, and self-flagellation is what both the media and many in the party want from the Democrats. Until those issues are fixed, changing the name at the top of the ticket isn't going to magically make things better.
Thread by @drvolts on Thread Reader App
@drvolts: I haven't written much about politics since the debate, mainly because I'm so overwhelmed by disgust & contempt toward this country's media & commentariat that it has rendered me inarticulate with rage. Twi...…threadreaderapp.com
So? If the media wants Trump back, they'll do whatever they want to get him back.
This is about getting a candidate in place that the vast majority of American voters thinks can mentally and physically do the job. The media is inconsequential at that point. They'll continue doing what they do. It's up to the campaign to convince voters, as it always is.
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