• Light/Dark

US Politics |OT 1| Smoked Filled Mar-A-Lago Rooms

For US politics and election threads
Status
Not open for further replies.
Thordinson

Thordinson

Banned
Aug 1, 2018
19,222
haziq said:
Again, just ask the obvious question. What did Biden do to apparently drive off Black voters? And why do those groups feel like they're worse off when that is objectively untrue?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Material conditions for all income groups are not objectively better.

I'll speak on my state specifically. More renters than ever before are cost burdened, pay more than 30% on rent with lower income groups paying 50% or more, and homelessness is on the rise. While inflation is cooling, everything is a higher price than it was. Historically low wages increasing by low double digits means little when folks weren't making enough to begin with. All around the major metros food bank demand keep increasing with some places seeing 25% increase.

So when folks says "But unemployment is low!" That means little to these folks who are struggling to get food on the table and pay rent or buy a house. So I can see why some folks are choosing the other option hoping for change. Rightfully or not.
 
BlackLagoon

BlackLagoon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,925
haziq said:
Again, just ask the obvious question. What did Biden do to apparently drive off Black voters? And why do those groups feel like they're worse off when that is objectively untrue?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
What pollsters are saying is that Biden isn't losing black voters in particular, he's losing working class voters, and that includes an increasing amount of black/POC voters.
 
Flame Champion

Flame Champion

Banned
Feb 21, 2022
2,535
Hollywood Duo said:
I'm seeing more and more people saying Biden "can't" win but that to me is classic doomerism. Even if we accept polls are perfect the race is still very close and if the election happened tomorrow neither side would feel confident they have it in the bag. Hell even on Fox News when they do their analysis they show Biden has a very direct path with PA/WI/MI and losing ME/AZ/NV/GA. Now if you want to make the case you think Biden can't improve by all means but you also have to take the stance that Trump won't do anything to change minds against him which to me is an extreme stretch. Once the Dems in disarray angle is beat to death they go back to covering Trump rallies and people will hear his dumb ass spew vile shit.

The black voters polls are just insane to me. There is no chance in hell Trump is getting 20% of the black vote. Not in a billion years would that happen. Maybe they are polling white people accurately but that shit is beyond wrong.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
To be fair PA is looking like a pipe dream. Trump was polling there at +2 before the debate and after they've broke +3~5 or more for Trump. Any path will probably have to be without PA.
 
Planx

Planx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,544
Rychu said:

View: https://x.com/jakesherman/status/1812229386617213191?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

grandpa-simpson.gif
 
Flame Champion

Flame Champion

Banned
Feb 21, 2022
2,535
Hollywood Duo said:
I agree that the polling appears it is the most vulnerable of the aforementioned but its way too early to call it a pipe dream IMO.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Actually after looking things over again you're probably right because AZ and NV seem to be going even harder for Trump.

Biden can do it if he snags GA and PA. Trump is polling pretty low in GA even after the debate, and PA... well, PA is going to be very hard but it might be more doable than AZ/NV.
 
daschysta

daschysta

Member
Mar 24, 2019
1,176
Pop-O-Matic said:
Tradwife influencers? British TERFism leaking westward? The Dems just doing THAT shit of a job?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Young people are treated as political nonentities and are coming of age unable to afford houses, kids, feel they will never live a life as good as their parents.... They blame the people in charge. It doesn't help that Biden failed to deliver on many of his promises to youth, and they uniformly find him to be of feeble mind.
 
Hollywood Duo

Hollywood Duo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
46,131
Flame Champion said:
Actually after looking things over again you're probably right because AZ and NV seem to be going even harder for Trump.

Biden can do it if he snags GA and PA. Trump is polling pretty low in GA even after the debate, and PA... well, PA is going to be very hard but it might be more doable than AZ/NV.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I wouldn't count out AZ, Kari Lake will do everything to fuck that up for him
 
Planx

Planx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,544
Planx

Planx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,544
GulfCoastZilla said:
Nothing Biden showed me the last three weeks demonstrated he could be that quick witted.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
The note pass was pre-planned! He had a big 4-page playbook and 3 of the pages were photos of what it would look like when the note was being passed!

It's either that or he's having a good day. Which is part of the problem, good days only make the bad ones so much more painful to watch
 
Katbobo

Katbobo

Member
May 3, 2022
6,587
Thordinson said:
The Manosphere captured tons of young men but I don't know how to explain the poll showing young women moving right too.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

My complete guess would be it's a timing thing. Most young people, myself included, grew up either during the late bush years or during the Obama years. Of the last 16 years, dems have been in control for 12 of those years. Yet life is pretty difficult for Gen Z. Bad housing, bad wages, etc. It's easy to feel like we got fucked over compared to older generations, something that millennials also feel.

With dems having been in control of the presidency for most of our lives, it'd be easy to make a connection that those issues are dem issues and then move right. Things are hard -> dems have been president -> it's the dems fault -> vote for the other party. It's ignorant of the true root of issues and governance, but i can see how it could happen. It's something that would be gender agnostic, as those issues are felt by everyone, and would just be amplified by the manosphere stuff.

But that's just my complete guess, no idea if it's correct. I think 2022 being driven by a backlash against Roe v Wade could hide a drift right if fervor over that has started to die down and now the actual shift right isn't being hidden by it anymore.
 
Rychu

Rychu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,231
Utah, USA
Flame Champion said:
To be fair PA is looking like a pipe dream. Trump was polling there at +2 before the debate and after they've broke +3~5 or more for Trump. Any path will probably have to be without PA.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
To be fair, there is no path without PA. Biden's campaign has already pretty much admitted that based on polling, Georgia and Nevada are gone. And Arizona looks shaky too. The path for Biden to win that Biden aides are looking at is probably getting 271 electoral college votes (exactly 1 more than needed to win) by getting PA/WI/MI while also losing AZ/GA/NV.
 

Irthis

Member
Feb 10, 2024
17
ostrichKing said:
I firmly believe most liberal 18-35s are not answering polls and that a lot of these numbers are wildly off.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

How they conduct polls changed pretty radically since 2020: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/

The majority of respondents are now from online or text message systems. The old pick up a phone and get a pollster still happens but way less than even 5 years ago. I guess it is possible that liberals 18-35 year old are less likely to either opt-in to online polling or answer text messages than conservatives that age but we should see that in the methodology section looking at panel party affiliation.
 
Vena

Vena

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,581
Irthis said:
How they conduct polls changed pretty radically since 2020: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/

The majority of respondents are now from online or text message systems. The old pick up a phone and get a pollster still happens but way less than even 5 years ago. I guess it is possible that liberals 18-35 year old are less likely to either opt-in to online polling or answer text messages than conservatives that age but we should see that in the methodology section looking at panel party affiliation.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

That's generally what a lot of youth polling with low sample size shows. High self ID as conservative or Republican in young voters.
 
Planx

Planx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,544
Yeah that's just the caucus with about half of our House members. I'm sure it's nothing and everything is fine and this will all blow over
 
Flame Champion

Flame Champion

Banned
Feb 21, 2022
2,535
Rychu said:
To be fair, there is no path without PA. Biden's campaign has already pretty much admitted that based on polling, Georgia and Nevada are gone. And Arizona looks shaky too. The path for Biden to win that Biden aides are looking at is probably getting 271 electoral college votes (exactly 1 more than needed to win) by getting PA/WI/MI while also losing AZ/GA/NV.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yeah I was looking over the polls ever since I made that post and it seems like PA is a must.

The good news is that Biden was actually doing well in PA before the debate so it's not a foregone conclusion that he'll lose there. The election will depend on whether he can convince PA voters that he's up to the task.
 

GardenPepper

Member
Oct 28, 2017
20,518
haziq said:
Again, just ask the obvious question. What did Biden do to apparently drive off Black voters? And why do those groups feel like they're worse off when that is objectively untrue?

Around this time in 2020, we were six months or more deep into a pandemic on its way to killing over a million people in this country alone, multiple months into a recession, and two months deep into massive protests across all 50 states because a cop put his knee on someone's neck. Protests were so massive & impactful, a neighborhood in Seattle was basically considered off limits to the police for a long ass while. And all of these things were heavily exacerbated by the man in office.

In 2024, with a different man in office, much of that isn't happening. The economy has rebounded. The job market has been stabilized, along with inflation. We're not in a pandemic anymore. And while protests are happening regarding Gaza (and the universities & authorities have responded to them very atrociously), those are more or less entirely localized to college campuses.

So to expect this polling to hold, is to expect historically dominantly pragmatic demographics like Black Americans to suddenly start going off the vibes. I don't think that assumption would hold up to real scrutiny.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Prices are 22% higher on average since the pandemic, cumulative inflation is highest in the past 40 years, and real wages haven't been caught up anywhere near enough to make it feel normal again. That's a huge reason why.
 
The Lord of Cereal

The Lord of Cereal

#REFANTAZIO SWEEP
Member
Jan 9, 2020
10,681
At this point it really seems like Dems need to accept that Biden isn't stepping down and to actually fucking support him instead of contributing further to his downfall. All this FUD and whining to the media about how he's a shit candidate is just going to turn into a self fulfilling prophecy if they don't just start actually helping him.

Everything so far is margin of error, and Biden has the power to win, but his own party turning on him like this is making that harder and harder
 
Planx

Planx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,544
Bradbatross said:
Yea, that seems to be what's happening.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
You've said this plenty of times before and you'll be saying this all the way up until he stops running or everything the House reps are saying comes true. I hope you get a free coffee every 5th time because I don't know what else you get out of downplaying every piece of news on it.
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
15,343
Planx said:
You've said this plenty of times before and you'll be saying this all the way up until he stops running or everything the House reps are saying comes true. I hope you get a free coffee every 5th time because I don't know what else you get out of downplaying every piece of news on it.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Same goes to you lol. Biden will drop out any moment now…
 
VisserFour

VisserFour

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,889
If the Congress critters are serious in wanting him out, they need a concerted effort to announce en masse. This trickle down thing ain't going to cut it.
 
Planx

Planx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,544
Bradbatross said:
Same goes to you lol. Biden will drop out any moment now…
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Hey that's only half of it! The other half is his poll numbers are so bad that if he stays in he'll lose not only his own race, but the House and the Senate and we'll have to contend with a Donald Trump who has a trifecta of government.

It's one or the other I've been betting on. I'm following the smart money
 
Starlite

Starlite

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
716
It seems pretty clear Biden and his team haven't done a good job convincing Dem congresspeople and leaders that he should remain the nominee. I think it's a near guarantee Schumer and Pelosi will try to convince him to step aside this coming week. The big question is whether Biden will actually listen to them or not.
 
ivantod

ivantod

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,610
Man, Biden's ego is really quite something, isn't it.

And that reported comment from his wife from yesterday... will they really destroy the whole country just so that they don't feel "unacceptable"? I guess when you're old rich white person, your life is really influenced very little by who gets elected to be president, so why would you care.
 
VisserFour

VisserFour

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,889
The Lord of Cereal said:
At this point it really seems like Dems need to accept that Biden isn't stepping down and to actually fucking support him instead of contributing further to his downfall. All this FUD and whining to the media about how he's a shit candidate is just going to turn into a self fulfilling prophecy if they don't just start actually helping him.

Everything so far is margin of error, and Biden has the power to win, but his own party turning on him like this is making that harder and harder
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
So, like, my preference is he step aside, but I am not, you know, married to the idea or anything. However, if he is truly down in these folks internals 4-5 points in PA, there is fuck all anyone can do to help him. He's cooked. If he's barely holding his head above water in a suburban D+5 district, he's done. We can sugarcoat it and wiggle around it all we want. It's not going to change reality.

While it may seem like a lot of folks are yelling DO SOMETHING, the issue is we were led, as was congress, to believe Biden would run a robust and active campaign. That's not happening. Down ballot dems rely on top of ticket turnout not cratering to hold onto their seats. It's no wonder they're freaking out. They can maybe outrun him by a few points, but some of these internals are showing them having to outrun him by 9 or more points.
 
Hollywood Duo

Hollywood Duo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
46,131
ivantod said:
Man, Biden's ego is really quite something, isn't it.

And that reported comment from his wife from yesterday... will they really destroy the whole country just so that they don't feel "unacceptable"? I guess when you're old rich white person, your life is really influenced very little by who gets elected to be president, so why would you care.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I'm not getting worked up about supposed quotes and secrets at this point. It's clear TONS of dems have an axe to grind and go running to the media to work their own agenda.
 
XMonkey

XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,989
Anyone pointing to battleground polls right now and saying they're definitely done deals and the results are set this far out can't be serious.
 
Hollywood Duo

Hollywood Duo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
46,131
XMonkey said:
Anyone pointing to battleground polls right now and saying they're definitely done deals and the results are set this far out can't be serious.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I'll give our fellow members a pass on this because so many here have so much to lose and I completely get the anxiety but the members of Congress doing this (and publicly) are blowing my mind.
 
Tom Nook Says...

Tom Nook Says...

Member
Jan 15, 2019
5,845
Feels like these meetings were attempts at getting him to go gently and/or a last chance for Biden to be reassuring/sympathetic to concerns and just about every meeting seems to have ended up being outright confrontational. I'd imagine Monday will see a pretty steady stream of new declarations for Biden to step down.
 
VisserFour

VisserFour

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,889
XMonkey said:
Anyone pointing to battleground polls right now and saying they're definitely done deals and the results are set this far out can't be serious.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Nothing is set in stone of course. But, realistically, when Biden's electoral problem is something 80% of Americans agree on, when a majority of your own party wants you to step aside, when polling hasn't been great for a while, when you've got elected members of congress trying to beg you to get out, when you haven't shown an ability to campaign successfully, when your spending advantage is just about to be gone, and when you have 4 more months here the slightest hiccup will tank you further....let's be honest here.

I've been a part of two campaigns that died because of a million tiny little things that culminated in screwing the candidate. : points in the direction of my avatar : So like, if you have the opportunity to course correct you should absolutely take it.
 
Planx

Planx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,544
Hollywood Duo said:
I'll give our fellow members a pass on this because so many here have so much to lose and I completely get the anxiety but the members of Congress doing this (and publicly) are blowing my mind.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Maybe because they and their campaign know better about how much stock to put in these polls this far out?

If the assertions presented are "Polls this early matter" and "Polls this early don't matter" then I'm gonna take the word of the people running these campaigns about what metrics are important. They probably know how to run and win Congressional races because that's their jobs.
 
Katbobo

Katbobo

Member
May 3, 2022
6,587
Rychu said:
Asked repeatedly in New Dems call about how Biden plans to turn around his polling numbers, he repeatedly went back to his record and what he accomplished in his first term.

View: https://x.com/maxpcohen/status/1812241835785420924?s=46&t=5q2U08gXVStIC0OkwBKlhA
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...


This is one of my biggest issues with Biden. I'm for him staying in the race if it felt like he has full awareness of the position he's in and can give good answers and assurances of that, and say how he plans to address it.

I do think he is fully capable of winning the race, but I want to know that he is seeing the same things the rest of us are and has plans for them, rather than how it does now where he feels somewhat out of touch and on a different wavelength than some of his constituents. Like, listen to the words we're saying and answer what we're truly asking, not fall back on canned responses that make our worries feel ignored.
 
julian

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
17,712
Irthis said:
How they conduct polls changed pretty radically since 2020: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/

The majority of respondents are now from online or text message systems. The old pick up a phone and get a pollster still happens but way less than even 5 years ago. I guess it is possible that liberals 18-35 year old are less likely to either opt-in to online polling or answer text messages than conservatives that age but we should see that in the methodology section looking at panel party affiliation.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Wouldn't that mean it's harder to verify basic things like age and gender? I constantly get texts from democrats asking me to fill out polls but most of the time they use my mother's name.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.