see to me these polls seem a million times more important than the ones which are asking Democratic voters to play pundit about who they think would win if Biden were replaced
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see to me these polls seem a million times more important than the ones which are asking Democratic voters to play pundit about who they think would win if Biden were replaced
I always had a sinking suspicion that if COVID didn't happen Trump could've had a second term but holy shit it's proof right there. People really pigeonholed 2017-2019 as a golden era. I miss that time too but Trump wasn't even remotely the reason for that. If anything he was the biggest problem with that entire time period and most things that sucked from that time was from him.
That's a demonstrable fact not a question. It's how hard it is to knock out a sitting president and just how unpopular incumbents are right now.
Well today was certainly not the news I was hoping for. This can only worsen.
Very left-leaning podcast I listen to that has nothing to do with politics made jokes about him being too old in 2020. There were tons of people without opinion and like it or not that debate performance sealed the deal for a lot of people. We are essentially asking a country if they would like to elect a man who would do a absolutely terrible job or someone a large percentage of people think simply isn't up to the task.
Most, and I say most, because it certainly isn't all Democrats are going to vote for him no matter what. But independence and Republicans that despise Trump are going to go with what they see ask the most stable. I know the word stable and Trump being used the same sentence is bonkers but this is where we are.
Trump absolutely shit the bed during that debate. I have a feeling he's going to shit the bed during the second debate as well. Having someone who can actually take him to task is incredibly important.
Very left-leaning podcast I listen to that has nothing to do with politics made jokes about him being too old in 2020. There were tons of people without opinion and like it or not that debate performance sealed the deal for a lot of people. We are essentially asking a country if they would like to elect a man who would do a absolutely terrible job or someone a large percentage of people think simply isn't up to the task.
Most, and I say most, because it certainly isn't all Democrats are going to vote for him no matter what. But independence and Republicans that despise Trump are going to go with what they see ask the most stable. I know the word stable and Trump being used the same sentence is bonkers but this is where we are.
Trump absolutely shit the bed during that debate. I have a feeling he's going to shit the bed during the second debate as well. Having someone who can actually take him to task is incredibly important.
I think we've also hit on the reason we can't find intelligent life in the universe. No civilization ever survives its information age.
Absolutely fair, and admittedly I can only really speak to my own experience. I feel like, compared to sites like YouTube, it was pretty happy to recommend a wide variety of content and I didn't have to constantly fight it to stop showing or recommending me blatant alt-right stuff like YouTube used to, and even still does now to some extent. But at the end of the day these algorithms are still ideally designed to best fit you as you are and not challenge you much, so if you already lean right the algorithm is probably gonna find a ton of right-wing content for you as well.
I wouldn't discount social media being a significant factor in the way the current generation is, though. People's lives are becoming increasingly online compared to 10 or 15 years ago and I think their online media ingestion absolutely plays a role in their political outlook.
That being said I certainly think it's far from the only reason we're seeing certain trends and is probably rooted in more tangible things IRL. Any online push is gonna have some roots in the real world one way or another so it's better to pinpoint those reasons and focus on them whenever possible.
It really does feel like we are heading towards a certain defeat. The day to day stuff is what really leaves a lasting impression on folks. I live in a very progressive area and the number one thing people talk about is cost of goods.
And the big problem is a lot of people flat out don't remember how much things cost 4 years ago. People were betting on that helping the view of the economy, and it is a bit, but I still frequently hear people complain about prices that are equal to or deflated from 2020 now. I'm not saying there's not real places where inflation has stuck, obviously there is, but the number of examples people come up with that are literally wrong is concerning.
View: https://x.com/acyn/status/1810499012757516795?s=46&t=lciEJNueTTtjz6py_1e4Tw
Thank you, Lawrence.
Admittedly, I hadn't watched the press corps today until after I saw members here borderline cheerleading it. And bluntly, I was disgusted. More bluntly, that was not an example of impassioned journalism. Even more bluntly, if you don't see what was so offensive and unusual about how they behaved, then no, you are not yet equipped to defend against much less recognize misogynoir.
The White House press corps continues to disqualify itself.
Nah, it's not anywhere close to certain defeat.
It won't be an easy fight, but no option was.
We can't find them because they are smart enough to avoid our barbarism, we have to work through it and then we'll get to our luxury gay space communism.
truth be told trumps approval rating before Covid happened was pretty atrocious, like historically atrocious. While I think he is popular within his base that always shows up he really shouldn't be this hard to beat, if democrats had someone that had charisma like bill clinton or Obama run against him, it would be wash. instead they have some pretty out of touch choices for candidates. Honestly trump isn't gaining any popularity right now, he is right where he was last year, it's just Biden is losing all the independent and middle votes. Kennedy should be no where near 10 percent right now.
I think the race is still absolutely winnable, but I think are overall chances are unlikely, and the more this post-debate mess continues the worse our chances get.
I think to get a real confident lead, we would need some truly great news from the WH or campaign, a policy or foreign affair victory or something. And not only do I not see that happening, I worry that the opposite may occur for at least one of these issues by Election Day.
And on top of that, if Biden stays the candidate, we need him to quash this age/mental concern significantly and regain confidence in him as president and a candidate, and if he has a issue anywhere close to the debate we're back to square one. But even with Kamala we'll have someone trying to convince the populate of continuing Biden's policies. And then if we can't get that + putting the absolute fear of God about a second Trump term into the populace, then we'll be in a bad spot. And if the Biden issue isn't resolved in a clear way and we get an unsure Dem party and/or a messy contested convention? Forget about it.
This isn't to undermine Biden's accomplishments, honestly they've been great, better than I initially expected of him. But I think for most people it doesn't feel like an improvement, it feels like things are just "normal" now but costs are still pricey. I don't know how you fight that image, but I think people expected "back and better than ever", but what they got was "mostly back I guess". Is it fair? Maybe not, but public perception of what the president can do and the actual realities often aren't congruent unfortunately.
And if you're in a position where there's not much to say beyond "Hey, the economy is stable and things are like they were (but exorbitantly expensive)", well what exactly are you supposed to do?
It's still absolutely possible to win this thing even with Biden, but we need to be making stronger moves faster and we currently aren't doing that. It may be "early" in the campaign season but we're in a spot in terms of favorability and head-to-head polls that we need to be running on all systems right now. Not a month from now, not two weeks, now. And the longer we treat this election like we're in a comfortable lead like 2020 the more sure we are to lose. Trump hasn't shown his face or done campaigning because right now he doesn't need to. He's already winning comfortably. We're the ones on the back foot and need to start fighting back.
The campaign has been far too passive when the debate and post-debate madness should have them pissing their pants. They act like it's a temporary flux and is gonna fade quickly. It's not. It's do-or-die time.
Inflation didn't reverse though......it just slowed
Some things like eggs were subject to price shocks that have fallen, but overall, since 2019, rents are still up, grocery bills are still up, car prices are still up, the interest on homes and cars and all lending is still waaayyyy up.
It is just a fact that a mortgage on a house that someone bought for maybe 300k in 2015 at 3% costs less a month than most 1 bedroom median apartment rentals in the same city that a young Gen Z'er is living in. And that same house today that is now likely 400-500k and would require a 7-8% interest rate loan would cost upwards of 2k more a month. Now do the same for cars.
So when I read shit like Gen X'ers or elder Millennials go on about how Gen Z is wealthier than Millennials at this time in their lives it ignores that the basic American Dream is much further out of reach, there is more wealth disparity which skews numbers, and more young people have to live at home as a neccisity....and maybe we all forgot, but life fucking sucked as a Millennial growing up.
We still have time to fight. Talk to your friends about Trump's plan. Explain to them that the cost of goods will go up, because of his economic policies.
I'm in the process of creating flyers with a list of policies being implemented in Project 2025. I will be handing them out at a party this weekend. I'm going to be there like, "I don't mean to spoil the mood, but you all need to read this." lol
It's some of the main bullet points. For example, I'm listing their plans for Gender Identity, Abortion, Martial Law, and abuse of power.
It's going to be about 30 points when done.
You could include a QR code that links to more info or hell just the John Oliver video might work. People just need to hear the information.
The fecklessness of the party leaders is pretty clear with the fear of making public statements against Biden. These people are supposed to be the leaders of the party and the country, and they aren't going to be honest one way or another. This is going to drag out longer.
The people tying themselves to Biden and vouching for him at this point are going to be stuck with that if he loses the election which seems like the expected outcome at this point.
On one level I understand, because the lie went on for so long that no one is really willing to go out on a limb to suggest a process or a candidate everyone will support other than Biden. It truly feels like a Lose-Lose scenario. This is supposed to be the election to Save American Democracy, and none of the members of the party are showing urgency. Why should the voters? Joe Biden seems okay with trying and hoping for the best.
The disconnect between the voters and the levers of power in choosing candidates and representatives in the party should be the reform for this situation. There has been a lot of work done to silo real power away from the people.
Joe is in control right now, and it's hard to see any reason he would humble himself at this point. You're stuck with him.
The people tying themselves to Biden and vouching for him at this point are going to be stuck with that if he loses the election which seems like the expected outcome at this point.
On one level I understand, because the lie went on for so long that no one is really willing to go out on a limb to suggest a process or a candidate everyone will support other than Biden. It truly feels like a Lose-Lose scenario. This is supposed to be the election to Save American Democracy, and none of the members of the party are showing urgency. Why should the voters? Joe Biden seems okay with trying and hoping for the best.
The disconnect between the voters and the levers of power in choosing candidates and representatives in the party should be the reform for this situation. There has been a lot of work done to silo real power away from the people.
Joe is in control right now, and it's hard to see any reason he would humble himself at this point. You're stuck with him.
Inflation target is 2% and we're a bit above 3%, so inflation has largely reversed to its intended goal. A slowing, but growing interest rate would suggest we'd still be seeing 7+% rates, which we're not.
The inflation rate of specific things (health care, higher education, housing) has long outpaced overall inflation but that's been going on for a while. That's long been a bugbear of mine, because those are key things people need, but we'll never get anything done when half the country wants to keep supporting a party that has zero interest in even pretending to govern, and half of the other party is largely focused on tinkering at the margins.
Car prices are stupid, but that's largely on consumers and automakers who want big, expensive cars and automakers who want big profits. Trump would trash any environmental regulations and lie to say it'll bring car prices down (as he did in his previous term), but it won't and will likely be offset by his insane economic policies (tariffs + obsession with trade deficits) and just throw confusion into the markets.
Given Trump's policies, we're far more likely to see inflation go higher.
Also, he'd get to nominate the next Federal Reserve chairman, on top of a pair of Supreme Court justices, so that'll be fun.
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I'm kind of lurking more then I usually do, because I know I'll get a lot of flak for pushing the "conspiracy theory" that the media (whose entire business is built on eyes being on their content) might just be willing to put their thumb on the scale and elect the person who will help the media as a business, have more business.
It's not some great conspiracy. It's kind of basic logic being applied.
If Biden steps aside, whom Democrats would want to replace him — and how | YouGov
Two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents would approve of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the presidential nominee, if Biden steps down.today.yougov.com
Those #s are interesting... but I don't think most of those folks have seen Gavin Newsom debate.
I was able to use a different browser to Google what is going on with Gavin Newsom and it seems his name has been thrown out there. Trump is still going with the Big Strong tough image shit...and Gavin is someone who is taller than him and can BS is way almost out of anything. Will look him directly in the eye and call out all of his shit. Gavin would destroy Trump in any debate. I don't think he has faced someone like him in debates, be it republican or democrat. I understand many don't like Gavin Newsom, but as far as debating and image (the stupid shit many voters take into consideration), I feel he would have the best chance of keeping Trump from taking control of this country....best from what is available.
i just don't understand why people are acting like if Biden dropped several points in a week he (or some other candidate) couldn't swing back? Maybe people are more undecided than we realize, and things keep changing rapidly.
But I suppose many of us assumed Trump would be an easy target because his last term was a disaster. Not only have some clearly memory holed it, younger voters grew up during it when they were kids with fewer responsibilities. He doesn't even need to make a pitch because people will just assume he'll make it feel how it felt before Covid. If he was a new republican he'd have to make his pitch to the American people. He started to during the debate, but nobody wants to talk about what he said.
But I suppose many of us assumed Trump would be an easy target because his last term was a disaster. Not only have some clearly memory holed it, younger voters grew up during it when they were kids with fewer responsibilities. He doesn't even need to make a pitch because people will just assume he'll make it feel how it felt before Covid. If he was a new republican he'd have to make his pitch to the American people. He started to during the debate, but nobody wants to talk about what he said.
Also, Trump clearly doesn't want to goto jail. He's going to be a bit more discilpined and pragmatic this time, not because he's somehow "matured", but he knows he has dozens of felony indictments swirling over his head. Judge Cannon and the Supreme Court have bought Trump time, but he still needs to win to make them magically go away.
In 2016, Trump was primarily running a marketing campaign and never really expected to win. So he was very undisciplined aside from a couple of weeks after the Hollywood Access tape.
In 2020, Trump had tons of hubris where he thought there would be no way he would lose to Joe Biden. And even if he did, he planned to have a backstop of election fraud claims to stay in office. So again he ran an undisciplined campaign.
But now, the stakes are too high for Trump. If he wins, not only can he guarantee to stay out of prison, but the Supreme Court basically just anointed him king and he could carry out retributions with little to no consequences. And that's the real reason why Trump has been so quiet since the debate. That's the real reason why he insisted on softening the RNC platform.
I honestly don't think he could help himself if he were debating Harris. He would inevitably say something incredibly racist.
Though I am not convinced that would move the needle either way…
Possibly not. And obviously he would be misogynist as hell.
The lesson we should have taken away from 2016 is don't run unpopular candidates. Now we are doing exactly that.
He already did in the last debate. For example, saying "black jobs" and "hispanic jobs". And saying "Biden is a Palestinian" as if that's a bad thing.
So not sure what you consider "incredibly racist" if those didn't register with you.
Just need to hope the dems keep either the house or the senate, even a chaotic, unworkable VERY narrow majority like the repubs have now in the house can keep things in check.
Biden has crashed in my expectations and view of him. Stubborn, stubborn old fool.
I wish you lot could steal all of the positive energy here in the UK and France.
Biden has crashed in my expectations and view of him. Stubborn, stubborn old fool.
I wish you lot could steal all of the positive energy here in the UK and France.
I think they meant saying something directly racist to Kamala about her being a black woman, Trump wouldn't be able to help himself if he was debating her. Biden wasn't affected by those comments because he's a white man.
According to the very polling he's quoting, so are Dems as a whole.
Either polling is very broken, or a lot of old considerations are going to be up ended and it's not because of Biden. It's affecting everything and polling shows that.
... Except every election thus far.
🤷
Again, he says incredibly racist things already all the time. How does Harris being on stage change the level of racism he already spews out?
I'll tell you what the poster probably actually meant. They meant to say Trump would say a racial slur to Harris. A lot of white people have an obsession of trying to catch Trump saying an explicit racial slur as if what he says can only be racist if it's attached with a slur. My point what he said at the last debate was already "incredibly racist" but it either didn't register with a lot of people / media or they didn't care. Harris being on the same stage won't make Trump be "more" racist. It's the same logic where Trump claims to be the "least" racist person. He's still clearly racist and everyone seems to be okay with that!
People getting whimsical about the pre Covid, cheap gas era before the pandemic. Nostalgia is a hell of a drug because there's clearly a collective amnesia for all the Trump BS during that time. Remember waking up and checking Twitter first thing in the morning to see what fuck face said at 3am? Yeah that was fun, let's do that again
The rate of inflation has reversed, inflation itself has not. Prices as a whole have not gone backwards, that would be negative inflation which while we can point to things like eggs as outliers, overall prices are still way up on major goods and services since 2019.
Instead of a widget's price rising by 10%, it's now rising by 2%. Just to be clear, it doesn't mean that because in 2024 the widgets inflation is now 2% that the 10% it went up in 2022, the 6% in 2021, and 4% in 2020 has gone away. It just means that after rising that amount each year its new rate of price growth has slowed to 2%.
Also not really sure where you are getting the next part, the fed has not adjusted down interest rates. The average mortgage rate has been stuck at around 7.5% for over a year now.
The point though was not to argue the nuts and bolts of inflation, it was to speak to the fact people aren't just making it up that things feel more expensive. It's not Biden's fault, but leaders across the world are being blamed, and it's not a weakness he has shown a particularly adept way to answer for either.
I don't know about the rest of the universe, but I've said it a thousand times: our Great Filter is Republicans/conservatives.
I think a lot of people don't realize that to the average American outside of Trump's mismanagement of Covid and his election denial leading to January 6th, his presidency didn't live up to a lot of the initial fears about it. They were doing just fine in 2017-2019 and elections weren't being overturned and his political opponents jailed.
It's why I think it's so much harder to convince people of Trump's threat this election. A lot of people think, "he was already president and this didn't happen."
It's why I think it's so much harder to convince people of Trump's threat this election. A lot of people think, "he was already president and this didn't happen."
And this is why it's also important for P25 to be an organic thing and not political.
Trump's presidency started with the Muslim ban. And that was a huge thing at the time - but that was mostly American showmanship and no one really gives a shit about Muslims in America (democrats included). The rest of the presidency is overshadowed by COVID.
Voters notoriously have poor memories, vote against self-interest, etc. And Biden's campaign hasn't really made a case against the issues most Americans are feeling. Even before the debate, the campaign felt like it was running out of time.
Voters notoriously have poor memories, vote against self-interest, etc. And Biden's campaign hasn't really made a case against the issues most Americans are feeling. Even before the debate, the campaign felt like it was running out of time.
I heard it in the car last night, me and my wife were like "wtf he is just rambling not even sticking to the question asked"
cognitive wise he a fucking hot mess as well. Kept talking about WW3
If the average American believes Trump's presidency didn't live up to the hype, then they're a fool. I don't buy that.
But even if that was true, for millions being hateful and cruel is why they're in Trump's corner. They like the chaos. They're akin to the millions of Confederates and Nazis of the past. It is what is. Let's come to terms with it instead of trying to harmonize an alternate reality where it's not about hate and stupidity.
The benefit of the doubt and amount of work people put into rationalizing Trump supporters actions isn't earned. And let's be real they're not going to stop. They're going to keep going until they do what they want or they meet resistance from people who wholesale reject what they're all about.
But even if that was true, for millions being hateful and cruel is why they're in Trump's corner. They like the chaos. They're akin to the millions of Confederates and Nazis of the past. It is what is. Let's come to terms with it instead of trying to harmonize an alternate reality where it's not about hate and stupidity.
The benefit of the doubt and amount of work people put into rationalizing Trump supporters actions isn't earned. And let's be real they're not going to stop. They're going to keep going until they do what they want or they meet resistance from people who wholesale reject what they're all about.
I think the plan was always to try to hide him as much as possible. The situation with Biden has been the perfect opportunity to keep him out of view.
I listen to those focus group podcasts and it's something that comes up in literally every "Biden/Hillary voters leaning toward Trump" group.
Does anyone here still think we can win? Like, I do. I'm just curious if I'm the only one left.
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