It really does feel like we are heading towards a certain defeat. The day to day stuff is what really leaves a lasting impression on folks. I live in a very progressive area and the number one thing people talk about is cost of goods.
I think the race is still absolutely winnable, but I think are overall chances are unlikely, and the more this post-debate mess continues the worse our chances get.
I think to get a real confident lead, we would need some truly great news from the WH or campaign, a policy or foreign affair victory or something. And not only do I not see that happening, I worry that the opposite may occur for at least one of these issues by Election Day.
And on top of that, if Biden stays the candidate, we need him to quash this age/mental concern significantly and regain confidence in him as president and a candidate, and if he has a issue anywhere close to the debate we're back to square one. But even with Kamala we'll have someone trying to convince the populate of continuing Biden's policies. And then if we can't get that + putting the absolute fear of God about a second Trump term into the populace, then we'll be in a bad spot. And if the Biden issue isn't resolved in a clear way and we get an unsure Dem party and/or a messy contested convention? Forget about it.
This isn't to undermine Biden's accomplishments, honestly they've been great, better than I initially expected of him. But I think for most people it doesn't feel like an improvement, it feels like things are just "normal" now but costs are still pricey. I don't know how you fight that image, but I think people expected "back and better than ever", but what they got was "mostly back I guess". Is it fair? Maybe not, but public perception of what the president can do and the actual realities often aren't congruent unfortunately.
And if you're in a position where there's not much to say beyond "Hey, the economy is stable and things are like they were (but exorbitantly expensive)", well what exactly are you supposed to do?
It's still absolutely possible to win this thing even with Biden, but we need to be making stronger moves faster and we currently aren't doing that. It may be "early" in the campaign season but we're in a spot in terms of favorability and head-to-head polls that we need to be running on all systems
right now. Not a month from now, not two weeks, now. And the longer we treat this election like we're in a comfortable lead like 2020 the more sure we are to lose. Trump hasn't shown his face or done campaigning because right now he doesn't need to. He's already winning comfortably. We're the ones on the back foot and need to start fighting back.
The campaign has been far too passive when the debate and post-debate madness should have them pissing their pants. They act like it's a temporary flux and is gonna fade quickly. It's not. It's do-or-die time.