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US PoliEra 2024 |OT 1| Doom Eternal

Who will finish second in delegates?

  • Williamson / Haley

    Votes: 75 32.6%

  • Williamson / DeSantis

    Votes: 5 2.2%

  • Philips / Haley

    Votes: 36 15.7%

  • Philips / DeSantis

    Votes: 3 1.3%

  • Chaos

    Votes: 111 48.3%
  • Total voters
    230
  • Poll closed .
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Entropic

Entropic

Member
May 7, 2023
856
AniHawk said:
he's mad because he's from texas and his district borders with a mexico but he doesn't understand it borders with new mexico
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Well I think he is a "serious" Republican in that he actually sees an opening for a win on a red meat issue, and the former president is basically forcing the GOP to miss a lay-up win for their base.

Essentially Biden has presented them with a compromise that literally costs the GOP nothing (foreign policy support on Ukraine and Israel, which 3/4ths of them support anyway), and for that they get a comprehensive border security bill with a lot of harsh measures they want. And they can't take the free win because of Trump. Shit is hilarious.
 
The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,115
Yeah from an opposition party standpoint, the GOP is pretty much getting the best deal they could possibly get considering they don't control the Senate or Presidency. And they could actually go back to their district and say, "By electing Republicans to the House, you got stronger border enforcement even with a Democrat in the White House." An actual legislative accomplishment to run on.

Now they're back to shoulda, woulda, could haves, lol. "if only you elect me again, then we'll secure the borders! For real this time!" Considering there wasn't a single immigration bill that passed during Trump's years, just Trump being in office doesn't guarantee anything and people are going to slowly realize that.
 

madstarr12

Member
Jan 25, 2018
2,590
Lmao, NV finally releasing some results from the primary tonight 1 and a half hours after polls closing, Haley might lose to "None of these Candidates".
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
Definitely an effort by Trump folks to get out their and embarrass her. Overall GOP primary vote numbers are very low so wasn't too hard it seems. Still for all the experts talk how it is embarrassing, and it is to an extent, this primary has zero effect on the GOP side since they rigged it for Trump with the caucus.

Biden numbers are pretty good for a primary that doesn't really matter, pulling in more votes than the GOP field combined currently. Three states now have shown a pretty good pattern for him.
 
OP
OP
SSF1991

SSF1991

Member
Jun 19, 2018
3,263

View: https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1755098897024717158

With Biden currently at 90%, I think I've seen enough of Nevada to say that there isn't much evidence of a base revolt here either. Considering "none of these" is an option here, it is pretty persuasive.
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So far, the results we've been seeing from Dem primaries just isn't matching up with polling. You'd think with the kind of demographic shifts these polls have had, especially with how big those shifts would be if they were real, we'd see something from primary results. But it just hasn't happened. There are just no indications that Biden has lost any chunks of the base yet.
 
Kusagari

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,138
The turnout in these primaries is so small compared to a competitive primary that I wouldn't read much of anything into it either way. It's very likely the people most down on Biden aren't showing up.
 
Ernest

Ernest

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,797
So.Cal.
SSF1991 said:

View: https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1755098897024717158

So far, the results we've been seeing from Dem primaries just isn't matching up with polling. You'd think with the kind of demographic shifts these polls have had, especially with how big those shifts would be if they were real, we'd see something from primary results. But it just hasn't happened. There are just no indications that Biden has lost any chunks of the base yet.
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But horserace!
HORSERACE!!!!
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
Kusagari said:
The turnout in these primaries is so small compared to a competitive primary that I wouldn't read much of anything into it either way. It's very likely the people most down on Biden aren't showing up.
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While normally true, more Democrats showed up to vote in the primary then the GOP by a significant margin says something. I think we need to stop downplaying that Biden still has considerable Democratic support.

Honestly, polling being broken aside, you are seeing probably "disgruntled" Democrats voicing an opinion in those poll results but when it comes down to actual support and real voting, they are 100% behind him.
 
Zyrokai

Zyrokai

Member
Nov 1, 2017
4,427
Columbus, Ohio
So if my understanding on the Trump trial is correct, we want the Supreme Court to deny it because that gives Judge Chutkan the green light to schedule it as she wishes, right?
 
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Nida

Nida

Member
Aug 31, 2019
11,761
Everett, Washington
maabus1999 said:
While normally true, more Democrats showed up to vote in the primary then the GOP by a significant margin says something. I think we need to stop downplaying that Biden still has considerable Democratic support.

Honestly, polling being broken aside, you are seeing probably "disgruntled" Democrats voicing an opinion in those poll results but when it comes down to actual support and real voting, they are 100% behind him.
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Yeah that's why I was eager to see the results. Iowa was a wash because there was a snow storm. But we should be seeing the motivated portion of both parties. The results are going to be easy to call.
 
Volimar

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
40,378
Chip Roy's speeches are going to get so much play in dem ads this year.


maabus1999 said:
While normally true, more Democrats showed up to vote in the primary then the GOP by a significant margin says something. I think we need to stop downplaying that Biden still has considerable Democratic support.

Honestly, polling being broken aside, you are seeing probably "disgruntled" Democrats voicing an opinion in those poll results but when it comes down to actual support and real voting, they are 100% behind him.
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I'm all for not downplaying Biden's support, but GOP turnout was likely down because Trump wasn't on the ballot.
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
Volimar said:
Chip Roy's speeches are going to get so much play in dem ads this year.




I'm all for not downplaying Biden's support, but GOP turnout was likely down because Trump wasn't on the ballot.
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True, but the Democratic one is also not competitive in reality so no reason for turn out there either. Plus I do think the "none of the above" result was a turn out attempt by Trump's team.
 
Dark Knight

Dark Knight

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,920
Really always felt like this entire run-around was purely for the purpose of letting Ukraine flounder. Every new development just confirms that.
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,325
Hellwarden said:

View: https://x.com/elwasson/status/1755266289545720270?s=20

Ukraine really is gonna have to hold on till next year, assuming Trump doesn't win.
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I'm not sure what that second quote is supposed to mean, but they are going to get hammered from everywhere at some point. If the Senate passes a bill, the pressure will be on. You can't say "It needs the border" when your other leadership is saying "we can't do the border this year".

I mean literally what argument will Johnson make to say no to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and Fentanyl prevention since they already tanked the border portion? It is going to be a huge political hit, even in conservative media.
 
Greg NYC3

Greg NYC3

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,971
Miami
MetalGearZed said:
Wow is this one of the smallest changes we've seen for an "If convicted" H2H poll compared to a regular one? This seems more believable to me as other polls usually show Trump cratering with a conviction iirc
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That's been my feeling from the beginning. Maybe it will make a small impact but folks inclined to vote for Trump have already ignored way worse behavior than getting officially convicted of a crime.
 
Nevi

Nevi

Member
Jan 9, 2024
129
MetalGearZed said:
Wow is this one of the smallest changes we've seen for an "If convicted" H2H poll compared to a regular one? This seems more believable to me as other polls usually show Trump cratering with a conviction iirc
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You are correct. The drop from convictions used to be bigger. I think it's mostly partisan hardening as elections get closer or (less likely) the people who would abandon a convicted trump pulled the plug early and only the hardcore remains
 
Maxim726x

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,338
Greg NYC3 said:
That's been my feeling from the beginning. Maybe it will make a small impact but folks inclined to vote for Trump have already ignored way worse behavior than getting officially convicted of a crime.
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Absolutely.

We don't need huge swings. 3 points in the swing states will be enough to seal his fate... I would like to think we live in a country where voting for an actual fucking convicted criminal would change more minds, but. Well. We don't.

I'm already hearing from most people in my county that this is a plot by Biden, that he's being unfairly prosecuted, etc. He's still gonna get 70 million-ish votes, which is really more of a slight against US voters than it is him. A few points off the margins is all I'm looking for. I'm not greedy!
 
Katbobo

Katbobo

Member
May 3, 2022
5,780
Random thing, but it's shocking to me how much republican talking heads have poisoned people's brains about cities.

I went through it with my NY trip a 2 years ago and people saying I wouldn't be safe and that NY isn't the city it used to be (it was, it was great), I went through it with Chicago last year and people being worried i'd get shot and that there'd be roving gangs.

Then recently I've been talking about the possibility of visiting the twin cities with a friend since he's recently came out as trans and is thinking of moving there from Florida. I've always wanted to see Minneapolis and St. Paul since i've heard it's beautiful up there, so it'd be a fun trip together.

I had a small discussion today with a coworker about the possibility of visiting, and she's always come across as conservative-leaning but she unironically told me I should rethink about going because a lot of the city is still rubble and dangerous because of the riots. Like....... what? This is legitimately what they have you believing?
 
butalala

butalala

Member
Nov 24, 2017
5,585
Katbobo said:
Random thing, but it's shocking to me how much republican talking heads have poisoned people's brains about cities.

I went through it with my NY trip a 2 years ago and people saying I wouldn't be safe and that NY isn't the city it used to be (it was, it was great), I went through it with Chicago last year and people being worried i'd get shot and that there'd be roving gangs.

Then recently I've been talking about the possibility of visiting the twin cities with a friend since he's recently came out as trans and is thinking of moving there from Florida. I've always wanted to see Minneapolis and St. Paul since i've heard it's beautiful up there, so it'd be a fun trip together.

I had a small discussion today with a coworker about the possibility of visiting, and she's always come across as conservative-leaning but she unironically told me I should rethink about going because a lot of the city is still rubble and dangerous because of the riots. Like....... what? This is legitimately what they have you believing?
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minneapolitan here - that was three years ago. the riots are over and the fires have been put out. downtown is still struggling and there are parts of town that are safer than others, but that's the same as any city. but I recently read that crime overall is down to pre 2019 levels. I guess car theft is way up though, so if you do visit (and I hope you do!), make sure to lock your car's doors when you park.
 
Katbobo

Katbobo

Member
May 3, 2022
5,780
butalala said:
minneapolitan here - that was three years ago. the riots are over and the fires have been put out. downtown is still struggling and there are parts of town that are safer than others, but that's the same as any city. but I recently read that crime overall is down to pre 2019 levels. I guess car theft is way up though, so if you do visit (and I hope you do!), make sure to lock your car's doors when you park.
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Yeah, I figured it was like any other city where you should do your research on safe and risky areas before visiting, and be aware of what's going on around you.

My condolences that, according to her, you seem to live in the rubble of an active war zone 😭
 
IggyChooChoo

IggyChooChoo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,230
Katbobo said:
Random thing, but it's shocking to me how much republican talking heads have poisoned people's brains about cities.

I went through it with my NY trip a 2 years ago and people saying I wouldn't be safe and that NY isn't the city it used to be (it was, it was great), I went through it with Chicago last year and people being worried i'd get shot and that there'd be roving gangs.

Then recently I've been talking about the possibility of visiting the twin cities with a friend since he's recently came out as trans and is thinking of moving there from Florida. I've always wanted to see Minneapolis and St. Paul since i've heard it's beautiful up there, so it'd be a fun trip together.

I had a small discussion today with a coworker about the possibility of visiting, and she's always come across as conservative-leaning but she unironically told me I should rethink about going because a lot of the city is still rubble and dangerous because of the riots. Like....... what? This is legitimately what they have you believing?
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You are absolutely right that rural/exurban conservatives are raised to be scared shitless of cities. I occasionally run into people like this, and my general approach is to describe how I (or we) live in a state that has a rapidly depopulating rural zone, and that the biggest city here only gets about half of what we pay in taxes back because we have to support the schools and roads that our rural areas can't afford on their own. How rural people with ambition or talent tend to leave their homes or the state entirely to go somewhere with longer life expectancy, higher educational attainment, better schools, and higher wages — even if that means higher taxes. I emphasize that other American cities provide the money to pay for social security and Medicare to prop up these rural, struggling places.

I close with how America's cities are some of the greatest wealth-generating engines the world has ever known. How any country in Europe would kill to have a metro area with the sheer GDP of even a Pittsburgh or a Cleveland. And how sad it is that not everyone is able to be patriotic about that fact. How some people are even actually scared to visit places where hundreds of thousands of normies live and work everyday!
 
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