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US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.

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Tackleberry

Tackleberry

Member
Oct 31, 2017
4,838
Alliance, OH
Shevek said:
Sorry if this has already been posted but the Kentucky primary results are looking absolutely bananas so far:



This is huge
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Im not in Kentucky, but for the sake of the nation, I hope Booker can boot McConnell out of office.
The Turtle is an absolute danger to the future of this country. I hold him personally responsible for holding back many great acts and programs from benefiting the American people.
 
fragamemnon

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,881
I will turn into a pile of fearful jelly at the words 'systemic non-response polling bias' for the rest of my life, kthanks.

Really the issue here for the GOP is that Trump is losing so bad that there's a legit possibility that he gets bandwagoned.
 
Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
studyguy said:
I mean 2016 also had a number of moments between Clinton running into sudden one off issues like that health scare then into emails, comey, etc over and over. Each one of those brought her rising favorables back to the same floor level with Trump. For what it's worth Biden has basically coasted by staying out of the spotlight for better or worse. More or less the inverse of 2016, where any time Trump came into the spotlight he dropped precipitously, but now he simply can't avoid being out there by virtue of being president. Every time he ducks low, he starts to climb but since we're nearing the end, he's in a bad way and has to compete (along with his ego probably pushing him)... it's probably going to be a rough going for the GOP into November.


Obviously none of this accounts for the bullshit Trump, Barr and the senate can pull at any time though. I fully expect something to crop up eventually.
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This is a really valid point. Anecdotally 2016 felt like a constantly repeating cycle of people going "well, I guess Hillary isn't so bad," only for some stupid bullshit to crop up (the pneumonia/fainting incident like you mentioned, for example) and ruin it because everyone was secretly hoping something would come along and justify their not doing so. And unfortunately, the Comey Letter happened to force the worst part of that cycle to coincide with the least opportune moment, when people were actually fucking voting.

Trump's near-daily scandals make it borderline impossible for any Biden gaffe or scandal to really breathe in the news cycle. Remember "you ain't black"? Yeah, that was over a month ago.
 
Newlib

Newlib

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,822
Maybe taking a course with a pandemic that fucks over old people wasn't the best decision when a state you had to win has a ton of old people.
 
RussTC3

RussTC3

Banned
Nov 28, 2018
1,878
Chaos Legion said:


Biden speaking live on the ACA
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CrabDust said:
Here's the full health care townhall/Q&A/remarks

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schuelma said:
Biden very impressive here


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I listened to this earlier today. This was top notch Biden today. Keep lowering expectations. He's really, really good in these settings.

EvilChameleon said:
Would be hilarious if Texas and Georgia flip but not Ohio.
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Being in Ohio this is possible. However, what else is very possible, is that the leaners will go with the winner. Ohioans don't like to lose/go with the loser if given the chance. Surprised neither FOX or NYT/Siena polled Ohio, btw.
 
studyguy

studyguy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,282
Tackleberry said:
Im not in Kentucky, but for the sake of the nation, I hope Booker can boot McConnell out of office.
The Turtle is an absolute danger to the future of this country. I hold him personally responsible for holding back many great acts and programs from benefiting the American people.
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If nothing it'll be something to watch how running someone who isn't basically a copy of the last 2 people we put up against McConnell fare in a head to head match. Hell, Lunsford literally worked and contributed to McConnell before he ran against him in 08.
 
No Depth

No Depth

Member
Oct 27, 2017
18,351
What analysis do we have on the FL shift?

Olds realizing Trump ain't it and cares not for them? massive surge of complacent voters now excited and registering? Just a tilt across spectrum?
 
ShOcKwAvE

ShOcKwAvE

Member
Oct 27, 2017
515
Carlsbad, CA
I'm speculating here but Hannity probably flew with Trump to try convincing him that his strategy on pretty much everything isn't working right now.

Edit - OK nevermind, they're doing a town hall together in Green Bay. Still...I doubt Hannity thinks what Trump is doing is the right course.
 
Chikor

Chikor

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
14,239
Apharmd said:
There might be some limited value in working with libertarian-leaning GOP politicians on criminal justice reform and foreign policy change. Maybe. I know I've had some respect for a few Republicans on those issues (hell, at times they are better than certain Dems in their policy stances there!) but could you get them to the table to actually write and help pass legislation towards those ends?
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I generally think it's easier for me to make a case by case call rather that to try to think on all possible scenarios.
It's really easy to spot when the GOP is arguing in bad faith, they're not good at this. And lord knows we have enough examples of this from recent years.

Apharmd said:
These days there's not that much daylight between the Trump-led GOP and the extreme right, is more what I was getting at.
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I think there is actually quite a bit of difference between someone like Mitch McConnel and the proud boys.
People like him are using them and he might toss a bone their way, but his priorities are totally different.

FWIW I generally think the GOP is way more dangerous than the far right in the the US right now, but ranking assholes is not that important of a thing, so like, whatever.
 
RussTC3

RussTC3

Banned
Nov 28, 2018
1,878
Tackleberry said:
Im not in Kentucky, but for the sake of the nation, I hope Booker can boot McConnell out of office.
The Turtle is an absolute danger to the future of this country. I hold him personally responsible for holding back many great acts and programs from benefiting the American people.
Click to expand...
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I mean, fwiw, according to the results currently, 75,000 have voted in the Democratic primary vs. 100,000 in the Republican primary (with more votes in for the D primary vs. the R primary).

Not impossible, but going to be very, very difficult to boot the turtle.
 
studyguy

studyguy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,282
Aaron said:
This is a really valid point. Anecdotally 2016 felt like a constantly repeating cycle of people going "well, I guess Hillary isn't so bad," only for some stupid bullshit to crop up (the pneumonia/fainting incident like you mentioned, for example) and ruin it because everyone was secretly hoping something would come along and justify their not doing so. And unfortunately, the Comey Letter happened to force the worst part of that cycle to coincide with the least opportune moment, when people were actually fucking voting.

Trump's near-daily scandals make it borderline impossible for any Biden gaffe or scandal to really breathe in the news cycle. Remember "you ain't black"? Yeah, that was over a month ago.
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I always just stick to the idea that 'Trump will burn himself if we let him' is and always was a silly expectation, but he really is doing himself enough bad press that the GOP have more or less backed off him. That alone gives me more encouragement, but I mean we're months out. I'm mostly sitting here waiting for July to roll around where benefits are set to expire.

I don't know if people caught the Daily's last podcast but stories about people absolutely scraping to get by, just like the most miserable of circumstances that were completely out of their control. There were like a handful of those stories and with benefits about to dry up in the coming month, I fully expect stories like those to absolutely flood the news in a big way. You can't let a giant swath of the country just languish, have the senate tell them to work or die then expect them to roll over for you.
 
BoboBrazil

BoboBrazil

Attempted to circumvent a ban with an alt
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
18,765
This election is more important than ever considering the maps will be rewritten next year. Dems have a good shot at winning control of the state congress in Texas so hopefully everyone gets out and votes!
 
SwordsmanofS

SwordsmanofS

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,451


There's a tendency to dismiss TX and its latent competitiveness at the Presidential level by dismissing 2018 as a function of Ted Cruz being, well, Ted Cruz. But remember, by the time Beto got 48% and came within 3 points, Cruz JA was net positive and Trump was at 49% in exits.
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ZAKU-RED

Member
Oct 27, 2017
360
It's been a while but I remember there being a couple of polls several months before Election day showing Hillary was within 5-6 points behind Trump in Texas and Georgia.

I could be wrong though.
 
Shevek

Shevek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,544
Cape Town, South Africa
fontguy said:
I refuse to believe it's going to happen.
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It's entirely possible. I think McGrath being pretty shitty as well as the murder of Breonna Taylor may have mobilised a lot of Democratic voters in KY to vote for a more grassroots and progressive candidate.

The thing that might be harder to believe is any Democrat beating McConnell in that state. Crazier things have happened though
 
BWoog

BWoog

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Oct 27, 2017
38,385
Again, as someone who lives in Georgia, don't expect a win here. The GOP is in charge and will cheat hard as they've done in every election since right before Kemp got into office.
 
Kangi

Kangi

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Oct 25, 2017
3,950
TX and GA are less about getting the wins now and more about getting within striking distance. Make the GOP spend money on them, show Dems there that their state can turn blue if they push hard enough. Get those registrations going and finish the job another year

Or y'know go ahead and flip them now if you can, why not
 
jiggle

jiggle

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,510
Kangi said:
TX and GA are less about getting the wins now and more about getting within striking distance. Make the GOP spend money on them, show Dems there that their state can turn blue if they push hard enough. Get those registrations going and finish the job another year

Or y'know go ahead and flip them now if you can, why not
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The bigger the gap in GA the better
Two Senate seats there
 
SwordsmanofS

SwordsmanofS

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,451
BWoog said:
Again, as someone who lives in Georgia, don't expect a win here. The GOP is in charge and will cheat hard as they've done in every election since right before Kemp got into office.
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Part of me hope they try to do some open fuckery. Because all the evidence we have seen so far this year is that when the GOP trues to do some election shenanigans, it backfires on them dramatically, as opposed to just playing by the rules, which causes them to win naturally.

Also:
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler - Shinra Employee
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,181
If we are going crazy:

what Biden national win % would be one with long enough coattails to flip the Texas state house?
 
studyguy

studyguy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,282


Man we suck as a country. I really do hope he pulls it out. Thread replies are extremely depressing from that original post.

Mostly just want to see what happens when we don't run the same further right than your usual bluedog dem in KY if nothing else along with this galvanized push behind him.
 
EvilChameleon

EvilChameleon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,793
Ohio
DC, Puerto Rico, Guam, and hell, I'll even throw the Virgin Islands in there as states within the first two years of a Biden presidency. Make it so!
 
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