NE-02 is a warning sign for progressives. Kara eastmen should have had an easy win considering the seat but she ran 10 fucking points behind Biden since she was running on Medicare for all. This narrative that we need to nominate true progressives is frankly just absurd that they will do better. Clearly progressives and democrats are going to have to do more to control the narrative but medicare for all is a fucking boogeyman for people.
dems currently at 47. tight race in Michigan for a dem incumbent to make 48. maine still a possibility with 24% of the vote left and ranked choice voting. georgia has one runoff confirmed for January and a second that could happen if the current incumbent drops below 50%.Sorry just trying to catch up. So is Senate a bust or are there any hopes out there?
You ask any of these polling dipshits about polling error throughout the year and they would tell you that they had 4 years to fix it and they did and that you are dumb for asking about it. Now he's saying "what did you expect?" Fuck off.
A+ according to...It's not his forecast's fault, those "A+" state polls were fucking trash and incredibly off-target.
And the polling error wasn't just ~3%, try like 10% in the case of Wisconsin and Michigan.
The real question is, will WI ever be able to get Trump to actually pay for it.A recount was to be expected, Trump's gonna pay for it, and it's just going to widen Biden's margin.
...how accurate their polls have been in the past.
To be fair to her, her former primary opponent and our former Dem rep (Ashford) endorsed the Republican. That definitely swung some votes here.NE-02 is a warning sign for progressives. Kara eastmen should have had an easy win considering the seat but she ran 10 fucking points behind Biden since she was running on Medicare for all. This narrative that we need to nominate true progressives is frankly just absurd that they will do better. Clearly progressives and democrats are going to have to do more to control the narrative but medicare for all is a fucking boogeyman for people.
It's going to take years to undo the damage of Fox News. People just don't want it. It's upsetting but we're going to get nowhere with people like AOC or Bernie and perhaps set the country back even furtherHire better marketers and rebranders
Stick to talking about the benefits and ideas
Control the narrative
I think, in retrospect, Biden was the only candidate from the Dem primaries who could've won. Kamala, Warren, Bernie, Beto, Bloomberg, they all would have lost.NE-02 is a warning sign for progressives. Kara eastmen should have had an easy win considering the seat but she ran 10 fucking points behind Biden since she was running on Medicare for all. This narrative that we need to nominate true progressives is frankly just absurd that they will do better. Clearly progressives and democrats are going to have to do more to control the narrative but medicare for all is a fucking boogeyman for people.
Did someone say under 50 makes it a run off?
Last I heard was they took the day off and we'll know in the morning.
It's a clear win, and I admire you for owning up to falling for their bullshit. I've been hammering them for a couple of weeks at least, and while I would have MUCH PREFERED them to have been closer to the real results, I still think their models had fundamental problems and they were basically just gambling on being an outlier, getting lucky with a systemic bias against Dems in the polls, and then claiming they were super smart.
They sucked.
Under 50 makes it a ranked choice i believe
I think it means Ranked Choice Voting applies.
I think, in retrospect, Biden was the only candidate from the Dem primaries who could've won. Kamala, Warren, Bernie, Beto, Bloomberg, they all would have lost.
No there's hope that 1) Gideon has a lot of absentee votes to come or 2) rank choice voting will push her over the top, but Collins needs to be under 50% for that to kick in
I saw a comment earlier here saying daily updates at 10am.Last I heard was they took the day off and we'll know in the morning.
I have a lot of trouble seeing Biden/Harris win in 2024 unless the economy does really well by then. If it's good, they can make it, they'll have the incumbent advantage. Covid is seriously in the way though.
The scenarios I expect are:
- Strong economy: favors Dems with Biden or Harris as POTUS.
- Not great economy: favors Republicans with Harris as POTUS if R candidate is established R politician (usual bias against Democrat female politician), equal chances if Biden is still president. Don't see an outsider running in this context.
- Bad economy: favors Republicans with Biden or Harris as POTUS, R candidate is established politician, but context favors the emergence of an outsider among Republican candidates. VERY difficult for an outsider to snatch the candidacy from the established Republicans, Trump was an anomaly on that end, Republicans are very egotistical and would not elect an outsider to make use of his charisma. Not impossible for Trump Jr to be given the chance though, safe bet for the party.
Oh OK. I was confused about the ranked choice.No there's hope that 1) Gideon has a lot of absentee votes to come or 2) rank choice voting will push her over the top, but Collins needs to be under 50% for that to kick in
Accuracy (e.g., factors used to judge accuracy) determined by and polls subsequently weighted based on accuracy determined by...
It's a long shot I can't personally pin hopes on. Not until Trump is nailed to the cross anyway. That's where my emotional energies are right now.No there's hope that 1) Gideon has a lot of absentee votes to come or 2) rank choice voting will push her over the top, but Collins needs to be under 50% for that to kick in
If anyone's takeaway from 538's model was to ignore the wide range of outcomes, and to ignore the *specific* scenarios they talked about at length like the 3% polling error scenario, I'm not sure what you plan on doing in 2022/2024.
Make Rass your new God?
No thanks. I'll keep on relying on 538 to give me realistic ideas on the plausible OUTCOMES.
Plural.