I agree with this completely. I'm quite not over the disappointment yet; I was hoping for a complete and utter (400+ EV / 53+ Senators) repudiation of Trump and Trumpism because that's what America needed and deserved. So yeah, not getting that sucks. But taking a step back, adjusting expectations: this is a win. Something from which we can build. IF, as you say, it holds.
I can't believe Collins kept her seat. Fuck
How was there no repudiation for her shitty stances and concern?
If it was a landslide we'd be freaking out about complacency going forward. This guarantees the Dems don't fuck around with 2022. Not ideal but let's find silver linings where we can.*IF* this holds, and we miss out on the Senate for now, but win the executive branch and hold the House, I'm going to focus on the positives. Yeah, it'll be far short of what we *hoped* and its going to feel like we have a fuck load of work to do just so that we can try and... well... start the fuck load of work we have to do to fix things.
But either way we were going to be facing a fuck load of work.
BUT. BUT. We will have overcome the most openly corrupt bunch of liars and cheats, despite all their efforts to interfere and suppress. We will have defeated Trump. Comfortably in the national vote, even if it ends up being hilariously close in the electoral college.
I know I felt way fucking better in 2012 through 2016 than I have the last four or so years.
It won't need sugar coating. It'll be a fucking *win*. In ever real sense of the word. Short of what we hoped. But enough. Even if barely so.
Damn, man, You are a downer.
... But you're probably not wrong.
Fucking unbelievable man. The margins in these senate races are awful.
2018 was plenty bittersweet too.im disappointed about the Senate, too but I'm kind of boggled that 2018 was a "blue wave" despite losing Senate seats and today is supposed to be some bittersweet victory, assuming Biden holds on. If the results hold, it's worth celebrating.
God I just want Biden to squeak out a win so I don't have to think about this idiot anymore
No, he wasn't right.
You'd think that basic game theory for power in a Dem House, 49-51 Rep Senate, Dem Presidency would have one Rep Senator break ranks and personally install Schumer as Majority Leader, or install themselves as Majority Leader with Dem support, and basically play the role of kingmaker. In the process, becoming the de facto most powerful person in the Senate.It doesn't matter if anyone in the GOP Senate would vote with Democrats, because those votes will never happen. A GOP-controlled Senate means nothing happens without McConnell's express permission. Need to hope for Maine and potential runoffs in Georgia to come through still.
A fair point. We'll see I guess.We're gonna find out how Trump's presence dragged them through in 2022.
Maybe the theory that he brings out rural voters who otherwise wouldn't participate in down-ballot races is accurate. Apparently was in 2018.
How strange I was leading until the person ahead of me crossed the finish line!
IS GEOMETRY A DEM COUP? 18 ANGRY ANGLES! MUST INVESTIGATE!
Not just him, you or America... the whole world.I saw him interviewed earlier. Even though he was right, boy is he sad about the state of America.
Is it over? I thought the ranked choice ballots had to be counted
The polls were wrong, it's difficult to blame the aggregators for it. But then again, Silver gets way too much credit for when his model is right too.No, he wasn't right.
His state-by-state aggregations and projections for margins are wildly off, even if Biden wins the state.
Ohio, 538 model - 49.2 v. 48.2
Ohio, reality - 53.3 v. 45.2 (still counting votes)
His projection of odds was 55/45 Trump wins Ohio, for example. So he can take the approach that says "see? my odds said Trump wins, he won." But the assumption flaw is that the odds were correct. The data suggests that the odds were never as close as 55/45.
He's going to double down again, like he did after 2016, and not learn a damn thing.
Really getting worried about the PV/EV split long term. Biden will probably win PV by 4-5 while squeaking by in the tipping point state. This can't really hold.
No, he wasn't right.
His state-by-state aggregations and projections for margins are wildly off, even if Biden wins the state.
Ohio, 538 model - 49.2 v. 48.2
Ohio, reality - 53.3 v. 45.2 (still counting votes)
His projection of odds was 55/45 Trump wins Ohio, for example. So he can take the approach that says "see? my odds said Trump wins, he won." But the assumption flaw is that the odds were correct. The data suggests that the odds were never as close as 55/45.
He's going to double down again, like he did after 2016, and not learn a damn thing.
You'd think that basic game theory for power in a Dem House, 49-51 Rep Senate, Dem Presidency would have one Rep Senator break ranks and personally install Schumer as Majority Leader, or install themselves as Majority Leader with Dem support, and basically play the role of kingmaker.
But that doesn't happen.
Really getting worried about the PV/EV split long term. Biden will probably win PV by 4-5 while squeaking by in the tipping point state. This can't really hold.
Here's hoping🚨 Biden campaign expects the race to be called for him today 🚨
When he has to fund the venue, security, etc. These things are going to be far and few between I'd think.When Trump declares he's running for re-election on January 21, 2021 and holds a massive MAGA rally in Florida to kick it off, do you think the GOP will abandon him?
Yes and so is DC/PR statehood
Everyone needs to keep this in mind. This is good.
There is still a fuck ton more work to do.
Everyone needs to keep this in mind. This is good.
There is still a fuck ton more work to do.
Polarization of the country is really bad. Like really bad. We need the final results to start seeing what happened between turnouts between parties but I think polarization is forcing us to rely on turnout vs convincing. That bodes ill on change.
He has been double speaking all day asking for counts to continue in states that favor him and counts to stop in those that don't
He's fucked if he thinks he can overturn shit