I don't think so. If anyone can find any instance of this ever happening, I'd love to know.
I wonder how many California votes were thrown away on Buttigieg.
Bernie doesn't need Virginia or North Carolina to do well on Super Tuesday. He definitely needs to keep his losses to single digits though.
The best case scenario for Bernie is for Biden to get below 15 percent statewide in California. If that happens (and no one else is viable), Bernie will get receive all statewide delegates from California.
Honestly, I'm of the mind that Bernie walks into the convention with a plurality, not a majority, and has to make some concessions to get the moderates on board, and ultimately ends up as the nominee.
Still gonna be incredibly messy though.
Honestly, I'm of the mind that Bernie walks into the convention with a plurality, not a majority, and has to make some concessions to get the moderates on board, and ultimately ends up as the nominee.
Still gonna be incredibly messy though.
So, North Korea just launched "something" at South Korea.
The Dow is going to be a bloodbath tomorrow and Trump is going to panic.
I think that would have to be essentially a public option - M4A Who want it. Allow it to be a plan as a choice alongside existing employer offers - obviously if you're a contractor or otherwise don't have insurance through work, you can opt into a Medicare plan at any age at the appropriate income-based pricing. But in the legislation, he'll have to make it competitive where workers and employers would prefer people go to that plan due to it being one larger pool - reducing individual costs over existing pricing/offers. That means competitive pricing for employees and less needed subsidies on the part of employers.This seems the likely scenario. The best result is that Sanders gets a commanding lead Tuesday and carries that to a majority, because I wonder what concessions Bernie can give and not alienate his own movement.
The sample size of democratic primaries is tiny. The sample size of democratic primaries with this many candidates hitting viability is much smaller. Not even to mention the delegate counts haven't remained the same over time.I don't think so. If anyone can find any instance of this ever happening, I'd love to know.
So my predictions from two weeks ago are mostly coming true:
US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
I'm going to make bold (most likely wrong) predictions. - Biden will squeak out a 2nd place finish in Iowa, staying his political execution. - Bloomberg will qualify for the Wednesday debate - Bloomberg will under-perform in the debate - The combination of a mediocre debate and negative...www.resetera.com
I pretty much nailed it except for Booty getting out before Super Tuesday. Keep in mind these predictions seemed mostly outlandish two weeks ago.
Warren has been doing the Lord's work ever since she flayed Bloomberg on national TV.
She's definitely more ideologically closer to Sanders but I bet she's also wary of a Bernie Presidency. Warren at least wraps her strong progressive plans/ideals with a layer of pragmatism. I honestly believe she could have easily chosen to run in the outer edge of the moderate lane but she went for a different strat in the late spring early / summer. I honestly don't know if it was a mistake or not. Kamala and Beto occupied the squishy middle and they got almost no traction in the crowded field. Warren actually made it to election day unlike the other two.
It's just Warren often gets painted as Far Left, but aside from her utter disdain for Wall-street, she actually could have positioned as a Lefty-Moderate / Pragmatic Progressive if she hadn't gone all-in for M4A in the summer. I can easily see her quietly trying to drain blood from Sanders over the next month to stop him from getting a plurality of delegates.
Nah, what he is trying to do is fracture the party. He's riling up Sanders voters so that if he doesn't get the nomination, all the Bernie supporters will stay home because they'll feel slighted.
Can't believe people don't see this.Nah, what he is trying to do is fracture the party. He's riling up Sanders voters so that if he doesn't get the nomination, all the Bernie supporters will stay home because they'll feel slighted.
My optimistic prediction is that Bernie wins Iowa and NH while Biden finishes 3rd/4th. Bernie takes Nevada as Biden's electability narrative falls apart and support shifts away from him. He likely still wins SC regardless but it's a much closer competition on Super Tuesday.
My pessimistic prediction is that Bernie loses Iowa, maybe wins New Hampshire, Biden gets Nevada and SC and effectively ends the race on Super Tuesday.
I would hope not lol, what's the point of having a VP that is openly against your key policy proposal!
Yep sounds like it
Maybe Kim will give Trump another nice big enveloped letter
From back in January:
My optimistic prediction came pretty close to reality!
And he also doesn't want to face Biden. They're not mutually exclusive.Nah, what he is trying to do is fracture the party. He's riling up Sanders voters so that if he doesn't get the nomination, all the Bernie supporters will stay home because they'll feel slighted.
de Blasio is less popular than Bloomberg amongst NYC Democrats. Lol, what a shit.
That seems like a huge "run up the margin" in LA and SF Bay Area which would have huge implications for CDs.Bernie replicating Nevada numbers in Cali would be uhh, hard to handle
My optimistic prediction is that Bernie wins Iowa and NH while Biden finishes 3rd/4th. Bernie takes Nevada as Biden's electability narrative falls apart and support shifts away from him. He likely still wins SC regardless but it's a much closer competition on Super Tuesday.
New California poll.
It still has Pete in it, but part of it was done after the South Carolina primary:
#California @EmersonPolling/@NXSTMediaGroup Poll (2/29-3/1):
Sanders 38%
Biden 21%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 5%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 1%
Emerson Polling
California 2020: Sanders Positioned to Capture California on Super Tuesdayemersonpolling.reportablenews.com
Biden and Warren would be viable if this poll were to become the actual results.
But uh...damn Bernie's numbers are huge.
What are you on about.
Bernie didn't technically win Iowa but everything else seems pretty close to what happened!
No. You said Biden would win Nevada. Bernie won Nevada with a huge margin.
Bernie takes Nevada as Biden's electability narrative falls apart and support shifts away from him.
Bernie replicating Nevada numbers in Cali would be uhh, hard to handle
Of voters who said that they decided on their vote just today, a majority (54%) have decided on Biden. Conversely, of voters who decided more than a month ago, a majority (53%) have chosen Sanders.
New California poll.
It still has Pete in it, but part of it was done after the South Carolina primary:
#California @EmersonPolling/@NXSTMediaGroup Poll (2/29-3/1):
Sanders 38%
Biden 21%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 5%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 1%
Emerson Polling
California 2020: Sanders Positioned to Capture California on Super Tuesdayemersonpolling.reportablenews.com
Biden and Warren would be viable if this poll were to become the actual results.
But uh...damn Bernie's numbers are huge.
Warren lost a lot of respect from me in the past few weeks. From the convention thing to the super PAC thing as well as the unity candidate call. Really not sure what's going on in her camp but it has been severely disappointing as have been her results. Feels like a younger Warren would have dropped out by now and endorsed another candidate. It's going to be a sad day when she loses in her own home state.
I want to see hungry "fuck Bloomberg" Warren, not "let's see what happens at the convention!" Warren.
It's worth noting that Bloomberg has NOT bought ads past Super Tuesday. I am hoping that he sees the writing on the wall and thinks that he is just flushing money down the toilet.
I mean, that phase already happened long in the past. I mean you had people in previous versions of this thread making a case that Warren and Sanders could beat Biden's popular vote through a contested convention stacking on.So are we going to be adding up Bernie + Warren numbers vs Biden post Super Tuesday and do a progressive fusion or nah?
The only outcome I see is her trying to secure the white liberal vote delegates and do a last minute drop into endorsement for Sanders which could push him over the top. Pete and Klob dropping out helps her numbers quite a bit in northeastern states.The moderate lane is quickly consolidating. I hope to God Warren knows what to do. This go to the convention strategy is idiotic and a massive disservice to her staff.
Really not sure what's going on in her camp but it has been severely disappointing as have been her results.
Teggy
Futures going higher can be attributed to hopes of coordinated Central Bank easing coming, also the expectation that the virus is seasonal means it's temporary (for this season), Apple said at the end of last week their Chinese production is almost back to normal, the CFR may be lower than initially suggested (see South Korea's stats), and the market has already fallen 15%.