What case does she have to make? At this rate she's not winning a single state. She'll be almost dead last in delegate count, possibly only above Klob and Steyer.I've expected this for months. It's not an unreasonable play... she has a fair case to make vs Sanders and Biden for the nomination. I couldn't help but notice that the contender No One had a surge in some of the delegate models last night!
I think, like with most of the current runners, these campaigns are waiting to see the results of Super Tuesday. Now if Amy, Pete, and Warren are all still in after ST I'll understand the confusion.Pete is staying in the race. I cannot possibly understand why.
New NBC polls have Cunningham beating Tillis 48-43! We stand a very good chance of getting the Senate if we gain NC.
Cornyn leads Hegar 49-41 - sizable gap, but he's an incumbent under 50%, and she lacks statewide name recognition. He'll probably win, but maybe...
Case to make as a candidate, which doesn't necessarily translate from number of states won. Once you get to a brokered convention any numbers/tallies/votes/whatever mean nothing unless it's forming a coalition with another candidate on the first ballot. Hell, literally anyone could try to make their case. The only two people that would be ineligible for nomination are Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. You just try to argue your strengths. Nominations used to be settled this way quite often.What case does she have to make? At this rate she's not winning a single state. She'll be almost dead last in delegate count, possibly only above Klob and Steyer.
Basically I'm saying that she can show she's been the compromise candidate and preferred second choice like the entire primary season, which is basically the definition of how you like to say you managed a brokered convention. She rarely leads no one demographic but is 2nd in a lot of them.if she loses MA I think she still drops out. Plus for this to be realistic she has to win at least a few states between now and the convention. If not she will be able to go in there and dictate some compromises from the eventual candidate.
I've expected this for months. It's not an unreasonable play... she has a fair case to make vs Sanders and Biden for the nomination. I couldn't help but notice that the contender No One had a surge in some of the delegate models last night!
Edit: Oh man, don't look at the replies to that tweet. Still not as bad as I was expecting, admittedly.
You know that statewide investment helps in TX-21, 22, 24, 10, 23, etc? Lots of vulnerable suburban House seats to win this year.Dems are 2 cycles to soon for anything tangible state-wide in Texas. Stop wasting money on it.
Yes, christ, her appeal with minorities is bad. Sanders is largely just as awful short a burst of young Latinx votes in NV. I'll simplify the issue-- black votes from urban areas in purple rust belt states win D presidencies. Period. More specifically? Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia. The presidency hinges on turnout in those cities, and that's been true since 2004 or so. A nominee basically has to move that group in some way. It's Biden's strongest argument to be the nominee in a brokered convention.Warren's appeal with minority voters is horrible so far. Coming in behind Pete in SC takes some *work.* With black voters being somewhere around 30% of the democratic primary voting bloc, a candidate with negligible support there is going to be a non starter.
Though I agree that anyone that's not Sanders or Biden should probably go after Tuesday, when the odds of a contested convention continue to increase everyone has incentive to not officially drop out.
Case to make as a candidate, which doesn't necessarily translate from number of states won. Once you get to a brokered convention any numbers/tallies/votes/whatever mean nothing unless it's forming a coalition with another candidate on the first ballot. Hell, literally anyone could try to make their case. The only two people that would be ineligible for nomination are Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. You just try to argue your strengths. Nominations used to be settled this way quite often.
Basically I'm saying that she can show she's been the compromise candidate and preferred second choice like the entire primary season, which is basically the definition of how you like to say you managed a brokered convention. She rarely leads no one demographic but is 2nd in a lot of them.
Does she somehow become the nominee this way? Extremely unlikely. But it's still there.
Yes, christ, her appeal with minorities is bad. Sanders is largely just as awful short a burst of young Latinx votes in NV. I'll simplify the issue-- black votes from urban areas in purple rust belt states win D presidencies. Period. More specifically? Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia. The presidency hinges on turnout in those cities, and that's been true since 2004 or so. A nominee basically has to move that group in some way. It's Biden's strongest argument to be the nominee in a brokered convention.
Latinx vote in sun belt state cities could well become the new version of that demographic within the next decade... Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta... but there aren't enough votes in those places quite yet for it to work.
Bernie in aggregate is far ahead in Texas, but i'm sure Biden will get a bump. Enough to close off? Not sure. But it'll be closer. NC is Biden's I think after the SC performance.
Bloomberg is absolutely a paper tiger. I suspect his support crumbles the second people need to actually vote for himFor one thing, 538's model has Bloomberg getting like 600 delegates, which I strongly doubt.
But if Bloomberg is in fact a paper tiger, I think more of those delegates will go to Biden vs. anyone else.
I live in NC, and this is how I feel
I think Dems have a shot at the presidency regardless. I just think we all have to reconcile: young dem and blue collar dem voters want socialism/progress, black dem voters want [[Biden]], and white collar/older white voters want progress, but not too much. Just a helluva split for a coalition party.
Yes. The evil centrist establishment Democrats like us would fall in line and vote for Bernie.Everything I've read online on here and social media has convinced me that Biden/Pete/Warren supporters would support Bernie en masse in a general election.
Everything I've read also has convinced me this wouldn't be the case with Bernie's fanbase, and that is disappointing.
I've seen a few Biden supporters that are kinda against Bernie but would largely fold. I don't see like any Pete supporters online. Warren supporters largely come across as blue no matter who but kinda fed up with Bernie supporter shit. I hope that doesn't push some of them away but they're probably at least a bit pragmatic and hate Trump too much.Everything I've read online on here and social media has convinced me that Biden/Pete/Warren supporters would support Bernie en masse in a general election.
Everything I've read also has convinced me this wouldn't be the case with Bernie's fanbase, and that is disappointing.
I'm still fine with Warren staying in through Super Tuesday. She raised the second most money of any candidate in February and for all intents and purposes Biden's actual campaign was failing. S.C. was always going to be a bad state for her so I can see why she'd build up for ST and see how things fell before making a decision. Her colossal debate performance hit at the most inopportune time unfortunately.
Super Tuesday coming so quickly after South Carolina is why everyone's staying in. Everything's already set up and ready to go. Plus there's the added wrinkle that shows we still may end up with no one having a majority.
Wouldn't big Jewel fans hate that song?
Agreed. Warren's whole focus needs to be on MA , and Cali and she needs to try and win a state that Obama had that Trump then won in 2016. Her idea of being the "third way" requires her to be third in some sort of metric.
Also maybe we don't hear about it because we're observers but she should fire whoever is in charge of AA outreach or at least re-assign them. I don't know if it's because these campaigns let their people "unionize" but shit I am surprised at the lack of firings overall after these losses. Campaign staff either gets it done or gets out the way.
I've seen a few Biden supporters that are kinda against Bernie but would largely fold. I don't see like any Pete supporters online. Warren supporters largely come across as blue no matter who but kinda fed up with Bernie supporter shit. I hope that doesn't push some of them away but they're probably at least a bit pragmatic and hate Trump too much.
Unionization would be among the rank and file, not management making strategic decisions.
Isn't it that already? I can't imagine that Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico would be big D trifectas without their giant hispanic populations. They've already gone blue three times in a row and judging from how fascist the republican party is becoming we can probably expect them to stay blue for the next 20-30 years when Gen X and Millenials hispanics are running the those states. Arizona Republicans must be having interesting conversations behind the scenes these days. I'd love to be a fly on one of their walls on election night if Kelly wins the senate seat.Yes, christ, her appeal with minorities is bad. Sanders is largely just as awful short a burst of young Latinx votes in NV. I'll simplify the issue-- black votes from urban areas in purple rust belt states win D presidencies. Period. More specifically? Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia. The presidency hinges on turnout in those cities, and that's been true since 2004 or so. A nominee basically has to move that group in some way. It's Biden's strongest argument to be the nominee in a brokered convention.
Latinx vote in sun belt state cities could well become the new version of that demographic within the next decade... Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta... but there aren't enough votes in those places quite yet for it to work.
Irony is more important than children in cages and fighting climate change."Why vote when I can win internet arguments and score upvotes on Reddit for my edgy anachronistic memes?"
-Youngins
If that poll is accurate (and this was before SC), I have to think Biden takes NC.
I think you're over estimating the effect of SC.Bernie is only up 4 in Texas in a poll before SC? Biden may have Texas as well.
Bernie is only up 4 in Texas in a poll before SC? Biden may have Texas as well.