Ah, thanks.
I think Shinra needs to come back in this thread and publicly apologize to Emerson.Emerson being the most accurate pollster this cycle despite everyone constantly shitting on them for not doing basic poll adjustments is kind of hilarious.
CT?So what non-Southern state does Biden win? This has always been the biggest issue for his resurgence.
Ohio, Pennsylvania, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, possibly some of the flyover states, West Virginia, Indiana, etc.So what non-Southern state does Biden win? This has always been the biggest issue for his resurgence.
It also just ain't a great sign for Sanders — polls went from showing him almost tied in South Carolina (after New Hampshire) to losing by what could be 20 or more points tonight.
None of those states are very demographically viable for him, which is the continued problem for his candidacy! (Delaware and DC are the obvious exceptions lol).Ohio, Pennsylvania, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, possibly some of the flyover states, West Virginia, Indiana, etc.
Trump getting even a 1-2% bump in AA voters can be make it break in some states for Dems.
If the field is down to fewer than the current cluster fuck of candidates, I do not see Bernie winning Ohio. I could totally be wrong, but there really is no huge Bernie movement anywhere I can see. There is also not a huge Latinx population for Bernie to tap into in Ohio, for example. I think this result shows, yet again, that there are massive holes in Bernie's coalition. The press is going to be epic for Biden over the next few days. People love a comback story. And, I still think Bernie is the favorite, but I think people acting like Biden is 100% done is as silly as people saying Bernie is `100% the nominee.None of those states are very demographically viable for him, which is the continued problem for his candidacy! (Delaware and DC are the obvious exceptions lol).
His demos are the oldest voters and rural black voters and southern black voters. Like Hillary, he's going to do worse with northern black voters, which is going to be a huge issue for him in OH, PA, MD, and especially CT. Maaaaaybe the Catholic vote saves him in RI -- but RI is also super urban, which plays to Bernie's strengths.
None of those states are very demographically viable for him, which is the continued problem for his candidacy! (Delaware and DC are the obvious exceptions lol).
If the field is down to fewer than the current cluster fuck of candidates, I do not see Bernie winning Ohio. I could totally be wrong, but there really is no huge Bernie movement anywhere I can see. There is also not a huge Latinx population for Bernie to tap into in Ohio, for example. I think this result shows, yet again, that there are massive holes in Bernie's coalition. The press is going to be epic for Biden over the next few days. People love a comback story. And, I still think Bernie is the favorite, but I think people acting like Biden is 100% done is as silly as people saying Bernie is `100% the nominee.
I think we might have a bit of a race.
I mean it's not a fantasy I'm living in. I'm literally agreeing that Bernie is the most likely to be the nominee. He's going to get a massive delegate haul out of California. There's no doubt about that. Can I construct a potentiality where Biden could narrow that gap by winning huge in places like Florida? Absolutely. They're not likely, but it's not impossible. You asked for some non southern states I thought he could win, I suggested some. lolI'm gonna let you live this fantasy until the polls close on Tuesday.
I've been saying this and now MSNBC is starting to get it. The entire game is CA. Sanders can survive large margin loses in southern states this time around if he's the only viable candidate in CA. Mistake for all these campaigns not putting more effort in CA.
None because they don't vote until the 2nd ballot.
I've been saying this and now MSNBC is starting to get it. The entire game is CA. Sanders can survive large margin loses in southern states this time around if he's the only viable candidate in CA. Mistake for all these campaigns not putting more effort in CA.
I've been saying this and now MSNBC is starting to get it. The entire game is CA. Sanders can survive large margin loses in southern states this time around if he's the only viable candidate in CA. Mistake for all these campaigns not putting more effort in CA.
I will say, I think if Bernie's entire margin of victory comes out of California....that's not a great argument for his candidacy, but that's not really important.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Wow: Biden between 66%-75% in first few black counties reporting votes, w/ Sanders well under 15% in single digits.
If this persists, it's a game-changer in the race overall.
7:27 PM - Feb 29, 2020 · Gaithersburg, MD
Oldie but a goodie.I mean most of Hillary's margins in 2016 came out of states that didn't matter in the GE. Who cares?
Right. Can Adam stop lol.I mean most of Hillary's margins in 2016 came out of states that didn't matter in the GE. Who cares?
If he rolls into the convention with a weak plurality based off a certain distribution in one state and get dumpstered almost everywhere else afterwards, the supers are gonna dunk him and they would be 100% right to do so.
#National @ChangePolls:
Sanders 40%
Warren 20%
Buttigieg 14%
Biden 9%
Klobuchar 8%
Bloomberg 3%
Steyer 2%
In a theoretical situation in which Bernie loses Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, (maybe even Texas)...I think there's a concern there. Anyway, this is all hypotheticalI mean most of Hillary's margins in 2016 came out of states that didn't matter in the GE. Who cares?
This new national poll is insane, right? Change Research C rating at 538.
This is what I don't get. How does Biden doing well in SC bode well for the GE? Unless you are galaxy brained enough to think that Biden can help in flipping the Senate race in that state against Lindsay Graham.I mean most of Hillary's margins in 2016 came out of states that didn't matter in the GE. Who cares?