US PoliERA 2018 |OT11| The Hunt for Blue November
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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Palm Beach also only at 37%. Gillum ahead by 100k votes there.
I'm making a fucking list of everyone who is crying at 8:30 at night for no god damn reason.
They are, just not deliberately. We control most of the seats up for election this cycle, making it difficult to get any sort of net improvement, and the contested ones are in unfriendly territory.
I know Florida Dems are in trouble when Steve Schale stops tweeting (like he was doing earlier with the big EV margins in some counties)
The sad truth is stuff just hasn't gotten bad enough for a significant amount of people to want to care about everyone else who is affected. Until it does, no change
Seeing how well rural areas are performing tonight, I'm going to predict Cruz steadily picks up and passes O'Rourke. Seems reasonable.
Yall need to get a grip. 2018 is different than 2016, no matter how bad things look in the immediate.
Right, it's not weighting based on where the vote has come in from. It's weighting based on who is ahead, if I understand correctly. So if a bunch of right leaning places report in first, it'll swing more than the way NYT do projections, as I understand it, anyway.
It's aggregating live and incomplete data at this point, you're basically watching sampling noise.
That Senate was always a distant dream. Losing it shouldn't even be a big deal.
Again I think Florida is closer than polling indicated and Indiana is just disappointing. So that's probably driving both people's takes as well as the data interpreters.
edit: MAYBE it's closer in Florida on a house level. I haven't looked at the data.
The senate was literally always a massive long shot.
It shouldn't hurt at all. Taking the House was always the goal and winning it by any margin is massive.
From 538:
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It's being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of "likely Republican" districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn't been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It's being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of "likely Republican" districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn't been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
I'm aware. 'Twas tongue and cheek. Trackers like those serve no purpose at this stage other than freaking people the hell out.
Honestly there is 9% left in Florida, but like 80% of them are Democratic areas where they're running at 60/40. It's very close but I'd favor the Dems with the votes which are left. Gillum is looking shakier than Nelson.
The worst part about this live forecast thing is that they are not talking about it at all on their live-chat to give people any sense of what is happening.
Edit: fucking EA, another FIFA Update.
The house is the only thing that matters. I truly do fear what happens if we don't pick up at least one branch
Right. And it's not going to be over at 9pm for the House.
It's going to be a long night though, from the looks of it.
Alright, I'm going to go drink and play Red Dead.
When I come back, we're all going to laugh about how you were freaking out at 538's metric flipping its shit and cheering about how awesome Senators Beto and Bredesen are gonna do.
When I come back, we're all going to laugh about how you were freaking out at 538's metric flipping its shit and cheering about how awesome Senators Beto and Bredesen are gonna do.
If I'm wrong never bring this up again.
STRAIGHT FROM 538
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It's being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of "likely Republican" districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn't been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It's being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of "likely Republican" districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn't been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
I don't want to tsk-tsk though because I KNOW how it is to live in a racist country that seems to be going backwards since I am a) black and b) American, but for your health's sake, PLEASE step away if you feel like you're going crazy. I beg of you.
I know that you can't relax, but take care of yourself! Step away. Take a walk. Play a video game.
I know that you can't relax, but take care of yourself! Step away. Take a walk. Play a video game.
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