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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19 (Tory majority confirmed)

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brain_stew

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Oct 30, 2017
4,736
Honestly the Lib Dem semi collapse is the worst of both worlds. They've lost enough support so that they can't take Conservative seats but not enough that they won't split the vote in Tory-Labour marginals, costing Labour seats.

A full collapse will start sending plenty of seats Labour's way or a small surge will start removing Conservative MPs. This messy middle ground is playing right into Johnson's hands.

It's been mentioned a few times but tackle voting is crucial. Both Lib Dem and Labour voters need to hold their nose, and their needs to be a more consistent tactical voting message now that we have decent constituency level projections.

Stuff like the Kensington seat are the absolute worst case scenario. If the Lib Dems had remained around 20% they may have took it, but now we'd be better off with a collapse back to 7% so that Labour can retain it.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Banned
Nov 14, 2019
2,943
My dad text me and says "After 9 years of what we've seen this country is going to return a Conservative majority? ..."

You know a Scottish person is angry when they finish a text with dots.
 
ronpontelle

ronpontelle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,645
My wife and I had been toying with going back to the UK from France - it's isolating and money's tight in rural Normandy, but at this point France would have to kick us out for us to go back there.

My wife often says that the place can go to shit for all she cares, but people will suffer so much if it happens like this, friends and family (even though they voted to leave) will suffer, that I wouldn't wish it on anyone.
 
Kaitos

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,710
Well at least YouGov has Zac Goldsmith losing. Return of Sarah Onley.
 
KingSnake

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,010
Even if all the 30 seats in question go to Labour, Tory will still swing 14 seats which is insane given the shitty governments that happened between 2017 and now. This would be a big loss for Labour.

Something extraordinary needs to happen in the next weeks to turn this around completely.
 
kradical

kradical

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,570
Geoff said:
Polite version: I think you've lost sight of what matters and what doesn't.
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I mean, I said I would take some small comfort in the decimation of the Lib Dems in the sea of despair of a big Tory majority, I didn't say it's something I wanted to happen or would be a favourable trade off.
 

ruttyboy

Member
Oct 29, 2017
709
Hazzuh said:
This idea that pollsters are predicting historically low youth turnout is entirely based on people misreading the polling data:


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If I understand that thread correctly (I probably don't to be fair), there's still a weighting overall that younger turnout will drop and older turnout will rise relative to each other (compared to 2017), but it's not as severe as the data might initially suggest.

18-44 sees a cumulative 19 percentage point (note, not percent) drop on 2017, versus a cumulative 8 percentage point drop for 45+.


Bad-maths.png


Feel free to rip me a new one, I've already admitted this isn't my speciality.
 
Xevross

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,049
So basically the lib dems are up 7 at the cost of labour and that's resulting in a huge Boris majority, and with all that the LD's are only up 1 seat? What a fucking useless party, we'd all be better off if they collapsed into nothingness.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Banned
Nov 14, 2019
2,943
Apparently, Jo Swinson has a 4% lead over the SNP in her seat.

If you live in East Dunbartonshire and see any of the young squad youth roaming the streets, tell them voting for the SNP will give them cheaper buckfast.

We need to flip her seat.
 
KingSnake

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,010
ruttyboy said:
If I understand that thread correctly (I probably don't to be fair), there's still a weighting overall that younger turnout will drop and older turnout will rise relative to each other (compared to 2017), but it's not as severe as the data might initially suggest.

18-44 sees a cumulative 19 percentage point (note, not percent) drop on 2017, versus a cumulative 8 percentage point drop for 45+.


Bad-maths.png


Feel free to rip me a new one, I've already admitted this isn't my speciality.
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You can't just sum up the differences. You need a weighted average to combine the groups.
 
ronpontelle

ronpontelle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,645
LD still almost doubling vote share from 2015 and 2017. From 7 something to 14%.

Tories predicted to gain 0.6% from 2017, which is worth about 4 seats in a sane democratic world, yet they're predicted to gain 41.

When the Tories basically have nobody to split their vote, this will always happen with FPTP.
 
Puroresu_kid

Puroresu_kid

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,477
Kinda depressing that the Labour manifesto just doesn't seem to have resonated with people.

How this country votes Tory I never understand but vote Tory with Boris Johnson as leader. Utter madness.
 

ruttyboy

Member
Oct 29, 2017
709
KingSnake said:
You can't just sum up the differences. You need a weighted average to combine the groups.
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Isn't that what a percentage effectively is? Plus a PP drop on a smaller percentage (i.e. the lower age groups) is more significant anyway.

EDIT: By which I mean I'm only pointing to the general trend in the weighting, I'm not claiming that you can translate this effectively to votes or anything without knowing the group pop. sizes.
 
Principate

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Puroresu_kid said:
Kinda depressing that Labour manifesto just doesn't seem to have resonated with people.

How this country votes Tory I never understand but vote Tory with Boris Johnson as leader. Utter madness.
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Eh the labour manifesto is doing it's job. Labour's still consistently raising and at a faster rate so far.

The tory manifest actually did nothing however.
 
Persephone

Persephone

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,457
I sent off my postal vote today, not that it'll make a difference. The last time my constituency voted in a non-Tory MP was 1923 :')) Nothing more depressing than knowing your vote is fucking worthless because of racist gammons and thickos who only vote Tory because their parents did and have never read a newspaper in their lives. Still, at least when Fuckface wins with 60% of the vote again I can throw my hands up and say it wasn't me. Woo.
 
Charlie0108

Charlie0108

Member
Oct 29, 2017
4,025
Incredibly depressing to see so many northern towns that have been totally ravaged by the Tories continue to vote for them. Utterly bonkers.
 
Shogun

Shogun

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,435
Puroresu_kid said:
Kinda depressing that Labour manifesto just doesn't seem to have resonated with people.

How this country votes Tory I never understand but vote Tory with Boris Johnson as leader. Utter madness.
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Labour could of put forward the greatest manifesto in the history of man and nothing much would of changed. This country despite what people might tell you is full to the fucking brim of ''fuck you, got mine'' types. Full of self serving cunts who have somehow persuaded thousands and thousands of people that 9 years of Tory austerity is all the fucking EU's fault.
 
JediTimeBoy

JediTimeBoy

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Oct 27, 2017
6,810
Gareth

Gareth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,480
Norn Iron
Persephone said:
I sent off my postal vote today, not that it'll make a difference. The last time my constituency voted in a non-Tory MP was 1923 :')) Nothing more depressing than knowing your vote is fucking worthless because of racist gammons and thickos who only vote Tory because their parents did and have never read a newspaper in their lives. Still, at least when Fuckface wins with 60% of the vote again I can throw my hands up and say it wasn't me. Woo.
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Yep, good on you for voting! I'm in a similar situation but I would never risk not voting.
 
ronpontelle

ronpontelle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,645
So Bolsover is predicted to go Tory, even with Dennis Skinner being there for fucking 49 years and being a huge Eurosceptic?

The country has lost its fucking marbles.
 
KingSnake

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,010
ruttyboy said:
Isn't that what a percentage effectively is? Plus a PP drop on a smaller percentage (i.e. the lower age groups) is more significant anyway.
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5 pp reduction in a category that has 100 people equals 5 people, the same with 4 pp reduction in a category that has 125 people. I don't have the stats at hand but I assume the 45+ years category might have a higher number of people in them.
 
PJV3

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
Poll looks bad on the surface but they are saying a lot of slim tory leads in various seats, still feels like game on to me.
 
Madison

Madison

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
Jexhius said:
Ah yes, the old "I see a bad poll, time to get demotivated" cycle of this thread.

Chuck that thinking into the bin where it belongs. It's toxic and pointless.

If you care about a Labour being successful, you should be fighting your hardest to make that happen. Most people don't make up their minds until right before the election. These are the people that need to be targeted.
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People will NEVER skip on an opportunity to shit on Corbyn, its quite impressive

I cant imagine how annoying this "oh i knew that Corbyn sucked here comes the crushing defeat" shit must have been in 2017
 

ruttyboy

Member
Oct 29, 2017
709
KingSnake said:
5 pp reduction in a category that has 100 people equals 5 people, the same with 4 pp reduction in a category that has 125 people. I don't have the stats at hand but I assume the 45+ years category might have a higher number of people in them.
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Yeah, sorry, see my edit above, I wasn't trying to translate it to actual votes, I was just talking about the trend in the weighting applied, i.e. although there are drops predicted across the groups, the drop predicted in the younger groups is still generally greater than that in the older. Whether that turns out to be true or not, who knows, but if there is actually a surge in youth voting, it only makes the prediction even less accurate.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Banned
Nov 14, 2019
2,943


Confirmation of Jo Swinson's seat.

Scotland, pls. Quite close. Do something about it.

That 8% of Labour voters, stop-it, get help. Vote SNP.
 
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