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The road to 100M Switch. How can Nintendo maintain its momentum in 2020 and beyond

Where do you think Switch will end up?

  • Above 100M

    Votes: 482 52.0%

  • 90-100M

    Votes: 187 20.2%

  • 80-90

    Votes: 150 16.2%

  • Below 80M

    Votes: 108 11.7%
  • Total voters
    927
Personablue

Personablue

Member
Feb 10, 2019
1,227
Almost every system seller capable franchise has an entry now on switch.
How do you think Nintendo is planning to maintain its momentum.

Will it be like the later years of Wii, where sequels like Galaxy 2 , Skyward Sword, Wii Sports Resort were made. BOTW 2 has already been announced so I think Nintendo will go that route only

For 2020, I think there will be a 3D Mario game, BOTW 2 and Pokemon remakes. These 3 will be marketed as their main console selling games.

Also I don't see any new hardware revisions hitting the market by at least 2022, though I may be wrong.

Next year they may start offering N64 games after their 2nd anniversary of online service

Lastly, 4 important questions,
1. Do you think it will have a very bad tail like the Wii?
2. When do you think its successor will be announced?
3. Will the next gen affect it in any how?
4. And is the current fiscal year the peak year for Switch?
 
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Aleh

Aleh

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,312
New IPs, sequels, price drops (we still didn't get any), revisions. The well is far from being dry
 
sir_crocodile

sir_crocodile

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,522
New games from nintendo themselves at a better clip and more Wii U ports, this won't peter out like the Wii. Especially now they don't have a DS to support. Plus the third party ecosystem of AA and Indy games is far healthier then the wii's ever was, lessening the importance of third party AAA games.

Online stuff is a nice sideline to make money but it's not pushing new users (at least not the way Nintendo have and are likely to continue structure and sell it).
 

Dark Cloud

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
61,087
It's not like the Wii. There is no DS/3DS to support also, just some mobile games. Price drop is one of the biggest cards they have. Continue with new IP's, bring back old franchises and new Switch models.
 
cw_sasuke

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,486
100m is the lower end estimate at this point.
By doing what they have been doing for the last 3 years in the next 3 years.
 

Deleted member 51789

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 9, 2019
3,705
Post Christmas 2020 is going to be trickier for them once mindshare of new gen consoles increases markedly, but I think sequels will do the job for them (as well as the occasional oddity). I know it's been poo-pooed by some here before, but a Mario Kart 9 on the Switch could be a massive help in say 2021.

I also don't see much in the way of hardware upgrades (no Switch Pro) outside of a brand new machine in 22/23
 
Iztok

Iztok

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,141
I never have a good feel for these things, but with modern takes on hardware iteration I think maybe they'll come out with a new backwards compatible one before this one gets to 100M.
 
takriel

takriel

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,221
How much has it sold through as of now?
 
Rand a. Thor

Rand a. Thor

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
10,213
Greece
New IPs, a new base model in 2021 that replaces the 2019 refresh and the OG model that comes with a super dock, super dock/lite bundle that comes with a firmware update update that allows the Lite to connected to TVs wirelessly and a super dock SKU for existing lite owners, sequels to already existing franchises on the Switch, legacy titles getting new entries and spin offs for Zelda/Mario/Pokemon, and so on so forth.
 
jroc74

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
29,041
The hardware is desirable, no confusing messaging. IMO the hard part is out the way.

Just continue with games, get more 3rd party games. Price drops. Basically what everyone already said.
 
AniHawk

AniHawk

No Fear, Only Math
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,178
takriel said:
How much has it sold through as of now?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

as of right now, it should be nearing 50 million worldwide if it's not there yet.

i think it'll get to 100m, but it'll look like this:

fy20: 53m
fy21: 73m (all big hitters are on the platform and all the major audiences are covered and no competition from microsoft or sony until the last half)
fy22: 88m (direct competition from microsoft / sony. sales start to fall but a revision or price drop lifts things up)
fy23: 98m (end of the line. a new console is out to replace switch in cy22)
fy24: 102m (last bit of interest dies out in favor of the new platform)
 
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Zedark

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
What made the Wii drop so precipitously was not just the adoption of mobile imo, but also the fact that Nintendo did not have what it took to support DS, WII, and the upcoming 3DS and WiiU. Switch does not have those troubles. Development is aimed at Switch and later on at its successor as well, so only 2 instead of 4 system. That allows Nintendo to keep putting out big first party releases for Switch, and maintain its life better.

I'm in the camp of a 2023 successor, so I don't think early replacement will cut off its potential, either. 100M should be possible, therefore.
 
cw_sasuke

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,486
doodlewhizz said:
Post Christmas 2020 is going to be trickier for them once mindshare of new gen consoles increases markedly, but I think sequels will do the job for them (as well as the occasional oddity). I know it's been poo-pooed by some here before, but a Mario Kart 9 on the Switch could be a massive help in say 2021.

I also don't see much in the way of hardware upgrades (no Switch Pro) outside of a brand new machine in 22/23
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
They did just fine with pretty much every big AAA PS4/XBO release missing the system - no yearly CoD or Madden, no RDR 2 and so on.

PS5/Nextbox will be a continuation of most AAA releases being not on Switch - but thats not a complete new situation not does that really matter as long as Nintendo and the devs that support the system keep releasing games.
 

Deleted member 59983

Banned
Sep 15, 2019
187
This is an easy one.

The Switch's appeal is that it plays games and games that people actually enjoy. They might not be the most current games but these games also aren't available in a portable form anywhere else.

Just look at the software attach rates of the Switch and how much software has already been sold. It's already miles passed where the Wii was and is rapidly approaching 3DS territory.

Nintendo will have a refresh of their major franchises in the next two or three years (Breath of the Wild 2, Metroid Prime 4, and so forth) with likely sequels to things like Super Mario Odyssey no brainers.

The Switch plays games like no other device can on the market currently and unless Microsoft or Sony decides to take on the Switch's main appeal (hybrid design) Nintendo won't have any meaningful competition to shrink their market size.

You like playing games on your Xbox or Playstation? Well a good number are also portable on the Switch along with a slew of software you can't get anywhere else.
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
switch will super easily get past 100. it just needs to sell 20 million every year for 3 more years, which considering how young the system is, how well it's selling now, and the inevitable price drops, should be very doable.
 
wrowa

wrowa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,376
How is Switch comparing right now with other systems that sold 100m lifetime? At how many units sold were PS1, PS2, Wii and PS4 roughly three years after launch?
 

Dark Cloud

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
61,087
The Switch should be around 55 million by end of March 2020. So in 3 years I would say it'll be about 45 million or so away from 100 mil
 
Sid

Sid

Banned
Mar 28, 2018
3,755
cw_sasuke said:
Assuming you mean the latest AAA releases that target high end specs of other systems - hasnt mattered before wont matter in the future.

Most of the other stuff that is feasible already comes to Switch.
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If a game like TW3 can be ported I am sure it can run the other high end games too
 

Deleted member 5159

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,704
well, it had a good run but they surely wont keep getting away with it. also, why every thread's gotta have a poll now?
 
Dizastah

Dizastah

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,124
It'll hit 100m in about 3 years or less. Then I expect a Switch 2. They may have to introduce Switch 2 in 2021 though. Porting nextgen 3rd party titles to Switch might be a little difficult.
 
ngower

ngower

Member
Nov 20, 2017
4,032
We still have animal crossing (which sells insane amounts), the BOTW sequel and Metroid as far as big games go. Pair with a price cut in a year or two and it will get there easily.

If they make a new Mario kart that would probably sell a billion copies
 
Neoxon

Neoxon

Spotlighting Black Excellence - Diversity Analyst
Member
Oct 25, 2017
85,492
Houston, TX
Sid said:
Get the latest third party games on board
Click to expand...
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With next-gen on the horizon, that's probably not gonna happen. In fact, I'd argue that Nintendo may lose some third-party support as we approach the launch of new systems.

To answer the OP's question, the way forward for Nintendo to get the Switch over 100 million units sold is to do a price cut when the next-gen systems arrive & keep the quality first-party games coming. Like I said, this is when Nintendo's gonna start losing third-party support, so they need to gear up to compensate.
 
Le Dude

Le Dude

Member
May 16, 2018
4,709
USA
Terror-Billy said:
80-90 millions is what it will end up with imo.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It'll be over 50M this year and it likely isn't even their peak year. It should be 70-75 by FY 2021 (March 2021) so unless they plan on replacing it in 2022 I can't see that happening.

On the topic as a whole, if Nintendo is serious about having the Switch on the market for 7 years then they can always put out a Mario Kart 9 and some new, novel, original and fresh take on 2D Mario. Both would be garunteed 20M+ sellers and they would sell like hotcakes in bundles.
 
hannybunny24

hannybunny24

Member
Jun 25, 2018
537
Germany
Revisions, price drops, continued stellar software output, a breakthrough in China, New breakthrough IP. There are lots of cards to play for Nintendo, they really haven't yet had to use any of their Aces.
 
Grym

Grym

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,974
price drop when competition drops
bundles
sequels: Odyssey2, BOTW2, Metroid4, Pikmin4, new Mario Kart?
 
Xx 720

Xx 720

Member
Nov 3, 2017
3,920
Continue doing what they've been doing - deliver the games people want. Also, while I don't think third party support is needed, I bet we start seeing bigger support from Japan, they could conceivably sell more as the other consoles aren't nearly as big there.
 
Terraforce

Terraforce

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
18,918
I'm interested to see how the Switch will fare post PS5/X2. I doubt it'll have much issue, but the software will inevitably shift away even further from Switch outside of exclusives. It'll be interesting to see how it's handled.

The Switch 2 I'm not expecting until 2024 at the earliest.
 

keidash

Member
Jan 31, 2018
287
I don't see reaching 100 mil also, nextgen is coming and also many mobile services like apple arcade seem to reduce its appeal in the coming years...
 
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