canderous

Prophet of Truth
Member
Jun 12, 2020
9,108
I think if fallout or ES 6 are exclusive that would be shit and lose alot if sales too but Sony has beem bad in recent years.
That's already happening

They also anticipated 10M Starfield and Indiana Jones sales on PS5 but determined it would be more beneficial to make them exclusive.
www.ign.com

Xbox's Phil Spencer Seemingly Decided to Make All ZeniMax Games Exclusives in 2021 Meeting - IGN

Phil Spencer apparently made a "big decision" to make all ZeniMax games Xbox exclusive in a November 2021 meeting.
 

Soap

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,765
October is just a safety net so they won't have to extend again… They are closing far earlier than that since CMA clearly want this done and over with as much as MS and Activision
 

LanceX2

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,016
You should reword then if you mean franchises. Because none of the games you listed were ever made on an Xbox platform and then made exclusive which is what your wording is saying. Sorry but you already know that Fallout and ES6 are going to be Xbox exclusive if Starfield is. Also anything not COD is going to be exclusive as well when this deal goes through. People need to expect this since you don't buy a company to enrich your competitor's business.


Those are assumptions though. Im just basing on track record thus far but sadly you are probably right. I hope old francises stay multiplatform but since Sony doesnt do that either I expect MS to be petty as well lol.

Not having FO or ES6 would cost 5+ Million copies. That would be alot of money but I guess Theyd want to attract to Xbox :/
 

LanceX2

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,016
That's already happening

They also anticipated 10M Starfield and Indiana Jones sales on PS5 but determined it would be more beneficial to make them exclusive.
www.ign.com

Xbox's Phil Spencer Seemingly Decided to Make All ZeniMax Games Exclusives in 2021 Meeting - IGN

Phil Spencer apparently made a "big decision" to make all ZeniMax games Xbox exclusive in a November 2021 meeting.


Both of those are new IP though. Not a FF , SF Elder Scroll.Fallout etc.

I fear gaming is going to become more petty
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
20,818
Didn't Phil say in his deposition their plan is to build their own mobile store front with Candy Crush, COD Mobile, Diablo Immortal and Xcloud to try and brute-force their way around the App Store?
Yeah, that sounds right. On Google Play Store that'd work, but wouldn't Apple prevent it from working unless someone jailbroke their phone?
 

PoeticProse22

Member
Oct 25, 2017
962
Oct 12, 2020
9,804
But I have a blackhole in my heart maybe more accurately my head that needs filling/distracting.

Hopefully Viewfinder, Toem and The Expanse can keep me distracted

Well, I hope you succeed in filling your black hole with whatever methods you choose.

I have wondered how much of a dopamine hit this thread, and just the general ABK news cycle provides for some folks.
 

Wereroku

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,800
Both of those are new IP though. Not a FF , SF Elder Scroll.Fallout etc.

I fear gaming is going to become more petty
If you read the article that has the email Phil has said officially to Bethesda all franchises are exclusive going forward. This was a big deal to Tim Stuart because their profit estimates for the Bethesda purchase was based around existing IP being released on other consoles. Changing that would require them to redo all of their profit estimates.
 

Syrah

Member
Jun 28, 2023
10
Actually, I was right and you were wrong. Anyone who listened to me here potentially made more than $1 additional profit per share in less than 2 days, which is an extra 1.2%. You're welcome :-)

While you correctly predicted a special dividend may happen, you were incorrect in what that means to share prices. Dividends lower share price by the size of dividend when they are paid out. In the interim, the upcoming dividend may support the stock, yes, but it's not going to lead to ATVI trading at $95+ before an imminent close at $95.

I was correct that the buyout price did not change.

Recall what I said Monday:

Jul 21 94C are $1.15. So you collect $1.15 premium and your stock is taken at $94 on Friday afternoon if it's above there. If not, do this again next week, and the week after. If it's above $94 on Friday, you just got out at $95.15, above the buyout offer and the stock will not trade to there absent MS/ABK renegotiating a higher price.

Jul 21 95C are $0.43. Free money.


As of now, 15 mins into the regular trading session, the stock is down 0.5%, the Jul 21 94C have gone from $1.15 to $0.03. I closed mine out at 3c, as per my typical rule of closing short options when my profit is >90%. The Jul 21 95C have gone from $0.43 to $0l.02. I would recommend anyone who followed my trade idea to also close out theirs, just in case MS closes the deal before the weekend.

As I said, free money :-)

Good to hear that no-one exercised your calls and took your stock before you could get the dividend. Still disagree it was free, rather a calculated bet on risk that paid off.

What do you make of Pachter floating the idea of the ratcheting termination fee dates also implying a potential increase in the dividend after each date?

 

LanceX2

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,016
If you read the article that has the email Phil has said officially to Bethesda all franchises are exclusive going forward. This was a big deal to Tim Stuart because their profit estimates for the Bethesda purchase was based around existing IP being released on other consoles. Changing that would require them to redo all of their profit estimates.


That sounds shitty and sad and hopefully doesnt come yo be because that means Sony will do same thing with other games.

Benefita noone.
 

Phellps

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,133
Yeah, they might be closing this a lot earlier than October but want to be safe and not have to extend it again. My money is on August.
 
Jan 15, 2018
195
That's already happening

They also anticipated 10M Starfield and Indiana Jones sales on PS5 but determined it would be more beneficial to make them exclusive.
www.ign.com

Xbox's Phil Spencer Seemingly Decided to Make All ZeniMax Games Exclusives in 2021 Meeting - IGN

Phil Spencer apparently made a "big decision" to make all ZeniMax games Xbox exclusive in a November 2021 meeting.
Note those are projections. focusing on less platforms does have the benefit of avoiding bugs being addressed on both. I would be pretty surprised if this wasn't one of the cleaner games released by bethesda.
Someone in the thread mentioned that Sony basically triggered some of the consolidation. I hadn't thought of it that way, but what other options did MS have when they needed content for gamepass and started to get shutout? I recall the rumors going around that sony was trying to buy exclusivity on any big 3rd party title. MS had previously lost out numerous times on purchasing studios that did a good job working with them. Bethesda and MS already had a relationship dating back to the 360 and the work they did to help make oblivion work on the platform. It was just a deal that made sense from many perspectives.

Same with Activision now, sony giving them a sweeter deal with a better cut, forced them to go to MS and ask for the same or threaten to pull the game from the platform.
I really with the check and balances worked properly to show where actual anti competitive behavior is.
 

canderous

Prophet of Truth
Member
Jun 12, 2020
9,108
Both of those are new IP though. Not a FF , SF Elder Scroll.Fallout etc.

I fear gaming is going to become more petty
It's business not petty. They determined that in the long run ES6 being exclusive would make them more money. One time sales vs. more subscribers and getting new people into the ecosystem. I don't know the exact calculus but I imagine getting 1 new person to buy an Xbox is worth a LOT of individual game sales on another platform, especially when those are all one time transactions. I think that changes when you're talking service games. So I also wouldn't be surprised if Zenimax Online's next game was an exception, but who knows.
 

show me your skeleton

#1 Bugsnax Fan
Member
Oct 28, 2017
15,908
skeleton land
October is just a safety net so they won't have to extend again… They are closing far earlier than that since CMA clearly want this done and over with as much as MS and Activision
agreed, i think the CMA are aware of what MS is offering. they were willing to provide the CAT with their evidence etc close of business yesterday, just over 24 hours after the case management hearing. the CAT allowed them an extra day and a half.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
61,553
I am still skeptical that the decision to make Zenimax games fully exclusive circa Nov 2021 stuck. Without consultation of Tim Stuart, CFO, there could be serious financial calculation impacts to that which Amy Hood would not agree to. The evidence in the trial was around a meeting that took place that day that Tim was being informed about. It could have changed after that. Though, I wonder why MS wouldn't push back on that with more relevant evidence..

I think if Quake 2 Remastered is announced/released at QuakeCon and is only on Xbox then there's your answer. Otherwise, that directly refutes/contradicts that FTC line of questioning/evidence that Phil made all Zenimax games exclusive post Nov 2021.
 

Qwark

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,588
I am still skeptical that the decision to make Zenimax games fully exclusive circa Nov 2021 stuck. Without consultation of Tim Stuart, CFO, there could be serious financial calculation impacts to that which Amy Hood would not agree to. The evidence in the trial was around a meeting that took place that day that Tim was being informed about. It could have changed after that. Though, I wonder why MS wouldn't push back on that with more relevant evidence..

I think if Quake 2 Remastered is announced/released at QuakeCon and is only on Xbox then there's your answer. Otherwise, that directly refutes/contradicts that FTC line of questioning/evidence that Phil made all Zenimax games exclusive post Nov 2021.
I agree, I don't think that email, as shitty as it was, is fullproof evidence. Things change, and a lot of things are changing with this very deal. It could still go either way, but I hope as many people as possible get to play ES6.
 

Lui

Member
Sep 22, 2022
2,511
He quote was about games that existed on other platforms. That's why I was asking what he meant and from his clarification he clearly meant existing franchises. Stellar Blade is an example of Sony making an in development game exclusive much like SF5 and MS with Redfall and Starfield.
Ah I think I agree with you then? I'm going to be honest I don't really understand what you two are arguing about then so I'm just going to back off lol.
 
Oct 27, 2017
21,048
what other options did MS have when they needed content for gamepass and started to get shutout?
Umm, they are worth 2T? Maybe they should, idk, invest in first party new studios and IPs, take their lumps and come back stronger just like they did with 360 and how Nintendo/Sony has done? I find it laughable that they were forced into anything. The very fact that they are spending 70b to solve a problem is evidence that no, they were not forced into anything.
show where actual anti competitive behavior is.
But isn't intentionally reducing access to IP libraries to make your own product more appealing to consumers the same thing?

It's not like Sony told ABK to throttle Xbox for a better split. They made a deal to keep a partner happy. Xbox would've done the same thing

I am so shocked that so many ppl made fun of Apple v epic, which was a trillion dollar company fighting a billion dollar company, and made fun of each trying to portray themselves as the victim/underdog yet Microsoft is worth 10x Sony (115b) and almost 20x Nintendo (55-60b) and many here express sympathy for them like they were being unfairly bullied.

All 3 of them are corporations and will gladly reduce access to games to make their own products more appealing, Microsoft just has the means to do so on a larger scale than Sony and Nintendo. (Because they are Apple, Amazon, google territory money)
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,680
Good to hear that no-one exercised your calls and took your stock before you could get the dividend. Still disagree it was free, rather a calculated bet on risk that paid off.

What do you make of Pachter floating the idea of the ratcheting termination fee dates also implying a potential increase in the dividend after each date?

I don't have Twitter so I can't see replies to that, if there are any.

I plan to ask here if it hasn't been covered in the few pages I'm catching up, but afaict the termination fee increase has nothing to do with anything as far as you or I are concerned. It just leaves ATVI with a stronger balance sheet if the deal fails. It will have no effect on share price before closing, and negligible affect if the deal fails.

Also afaict, we are not guaranteed that dividend. If MS closes before Aug 2, there are no ATVI shareholders on record on 8/2 to collect a dividend later.

Btw, even if the dividend were happening in the next day or two, the stock still wouldn't be over $95. That's how things work. The $95 calls expiring this week would expire worthless in that case, leaving 100% profit on the premium sold, and probably the $94 calls too.
 

HBK

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,368
I'm 100% convinced MS intends to make TES6 an "Xbox exclusive" (meaning also PC and cloud GamePass and so forth).

BUT it wont release until 2028 best case scenario. It would make no sense for them to commit to anything with regard to which platform this game will release on at this point.

A lot can happen in 5 years and maybe by that time it'll release on PS6 or Super Switch 2 or Stadia 2 or whatever else, who TF can predict that now, not even them.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
61,553
Do we know the earliest date it can close? I didn't see any sort of timetable of events.
I would imagine the earliest in theory would be Friday under miraculous circumstances after the evidence is submitted Thursday and the CAT going from conditional adjournment to full adjournment or whatever. But that is way, way, unlikely.

They are just dependent on how fast the CMA can work through MS' offer and negotiations and all the paperwork. I think it'd be like 2 weeks after the Thursday evidence submission that would be the possible earliest, but surely likely to go on further.
 

Deleted member 93062

Account closed at user request
Banned
Mar 4, 2021
24,767
Umm, they are worth 2T? Maybe they should, idk, invest in first party new studios and IPs, take their lumps and come back stronger just like they did with 360 and how Nintendo/Sony has done? I find it laughable that they were forced into anything. The very fact that they are spending 70b to solve a problem is evidence that no, they were not forced into anything.
Building new studios and IPs from scratch is incredibly difficult and time consuming, we're probably talking about 11th gen consoles before these studios really have much to show. Xbox is not in position to wait out two generations to get a first party stable of games finally releasing on Game Pass.
 

Rahkeesh

Member
Jun 20, 2022
4,854
I think if Quake 2 Remastered is announced/released at QuakeCon and is only on Xbox then there's your answer. Otherwise, that directly refutes/contradicts that FTC line of questioning/evidence that Phil made all Zenimax games exclusive post Nov 2021.

Q1 remaster was by nightdive, a third party studio. If Q2 remaster is the same it might be the same thing: its a zenimax IP/license, not their studio's work.

Getting a third party to make an exclusive is also significantly more complicated, since you have to front enough money to make up for the missed sales on the vastly more popular switch and playstation platforms. Meanwhile an internal studio is going to do what they are told and get their standard paychecks. That's how we got in the situation in the first place of Microsoft just buying everyone up while Sony continues to merely bribe them to stay off the smaller xbox platform.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
20,818
Umm, they are worth 2T? Maybe they should, idk, invest in first party new studios and IPs, take their lumps and come back stronger just like they did with 360 and how Nintendo/Sony has done? I find it laughable that they were forced into anything. The very fact that they are spending 70b to solve a problem is evidence that no, they were not forced into anything.

But isn't intentionally reducing access to IP libraries to make your own product more appealing to consumers the same thing?

It's not like Sony told ABK to throttle Xbox for a better split. They made a deal to keep a partner happy. Xbox would've done the same thing

I am so shocked that so many ppl made fun of Apple v epic, which was a trillion dollar company fighting a billion dollar company, and made fun of each trying to portray themselves as the victim/underdog yet Microsoft is worth 10x Sony (115b) and almost 20x Nintendo (55-60b) and many here express sympathy for them like they were being unfairly bullied.

All 3 of them are corporations and will gladly reduce access to games to make their own products more appealing, Microsoft just has the means to do so on a larger scale than Sony and Nintendo. (Because they are Apple, Amazon, google territory money)
Xbox is one small part of MS. It's not as if MS is going to use all of its resources to focus on Xbox. Comparing the size of MS to Nintendo, which is essentially just a gaming company that dabbles in other stuff to MS which is a OS/Office/Cloud company that dabbles in gaming, is not really an apples to apples comparison. Sony is somewhere in the middle as it too does a lot, but gaming is a much higher percentage of Sony's revenue than Xbox is for MS.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
61,553
Q1 remaster was by nightdive, a third party studio. If Q2 remaster is the same it might be the same thing: its a zenimax IP/license, not their studio's work.
So? They still own the IP and dictate the contract/work to be done by Nightdive for Q2. Nightdive doesn't just get access to the IP and decide what to do with it. Bethesda Softworks still publishes it (aka chooses platforms to sell it on).
 

Lowrys

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,286
London
I would imagine the earliest in theory would be Friday under miraculous circumstances after the evidence is submitted Thursday and the CAT going from conditional adjournment to full adjournment or whatever. But that is way, way, unlikely.

They are just dependent on how fast the CMA can work through MS' offer and negotiations and all the paperwork. I think it'd be like 2 weeks after the Thursday evidence submission that would be the possible earliest, but surely likely to go on further.
It seems there needs to be some sort of third party consultation. I imagine that part will take the longest.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
61,553
It seems there needs to be some sort of third party consultation. I imagine that part will take the longest.
Third party consultation to review the agreement/divestiture stuff? Or like third party submissions for commentary (similar to how they waited for comments from Sony, Google, citizens, etc)? I think the CMA said they could crunch that down to a week and still do their due diligence in the CAT hearing the other day.
 

Syrah

Member
Jun 28, 2023
10
I don't have Twitter so I can't see replies to that, if there are any.

I plan to ask here if it hasn't been covered in the few pages I'm catching up, but afaict the termination fee increase has nothing to do with anything as far as you or I are concerned. It just leaves ATVI with a stronger balance sheet if the deal fails. It will have no affect on share price before closing, and negligible affect if the deal fails.

Also afaict, we are not guaranteed that dividend. If MS closes before Aug 2, there are no ATVI shareholders on record on 8/2 to collect a dividend later.

Thanks. I think you're right on the dividend, so ironically I'm now happy to wait til late August.

Here's the speculation I'm referring to.


View: https://twitter.com/michaelpachter/status/1681656679442821121?s=46
 

Det

Member
Jul 30, 2020
13,835
I am still skeptical that the decision to make Zenimax games fully exclusive circa Nov 2021 stuck. Without consultation of Tim Stuart, CFO, there could be serious financial calculation impacts to that which Amy Hood would not agree to. The evidence in the trial was around a meeting that took place that day that Tim was being informed about. It could have changed after that. Though, I wonder why MS wouldn't push back on that with more relevant evidence..

I think if Quake 2 Remastered is announced/released at QuakeCon and is only on Xbox then there's your answer. Otherwise, that directly refutes/contradicts that FTC line of questioning/evidence that Phil made all Zenimax games exclusive post Nov 2021.

Financial calculation impacts via Amy Hood is only as relevant as the forecasted sales per title. Large blockbuster SP titles make all the sense in the world to make exclusive as an ecosystem driver, whilst live-service games are community and access driven. Something like a Quake 2 remaster could go either way since its financial performance and ecosystem driving potential is significantly smaller.
 

Akiba756

Member
Oct 1, 2020
1,341
Sao Paolo, Brazil
So, correct me if am wrong ...
Even if the FTC technically got more time, unless the they find some absurd evidence, like I dunno, photos of Phil Spencer cosplaying as Kratos, they can't do anything else?
 

Fabs

Member
Aug 22, 2019
2,106
The Microsoft should only do it Sonys way pops up every few pages but it gets even funnier when the trial has shown Xbox isn't given a blank check. ROI still happens within huge companies with analytics needed to support these expenses will come back over time.
 

Lowrys

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,286
London
Third party consultation to review the agreement/divestiture stuff? Or like third party submissions for commentary (similar to how they waited for comments from Sony, Google, citizens, etc)? I think the CMA said they could crunch that down to a week and still do their due diligence in the CAT hearing the other day.
I don't know enough about the consultation requirements to answer that, sorry. I imagine it might well depend on which route CMA goes down. Hopefully Pixis or Idas can give more detail.
 

asmith906

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,429
People keep talking about third party deals Sony has made to justify Microsoft buying multiple publishers and I find it very confusing. Sure Sony has gone to a lot of different studios but the actual number of releases exclusive games they've obtained could be counted on two hands.

Timed console games
Deathloop
Tokyo Ghostwire
Stray

Full console exclusives
Final Fantasy 16
Forspoken
Final Fantasy 7 remakes

maybe I'm missing some but the list of big games Xbox has missed solely due to Sony deals is really small.
 

Yerffej

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,808
People keep talking about third party deals Sony has made to justify Microsoft buying multiple publishers and I find it very confusing. Sure Sony has gone to a lot of different studios but the actual number of releases exclusive games they've obtained could be counted on two hands.

Timed console games
Deathloop
Tokyo Ghostwire
Stray

Full console exclusives
Final Fantasy 16
Forspoken
Final Fantasy 7 remakes

maybe I'm missing some but the list of big games Xbox has missed solely due to Sony deals is really small.
Get ready