Housing is pretty much fucked for the rest of our lifetimes as far as I'm concerned. Too little meaningful government will to build affordable places and too little societal will to move away from the for-profit housing model.
The housing market isn’t going to “crash”, is it
- Thread starter PeakPointMatrix
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This is good advice, and basically what lead me to buy this house a couple years ago. Even back then I kept thinking "shit but prices are so high, maybe I should wait" and my partner made us pull the trigger which I am very thankful for. As said above, if you're just planning on living in it, you'll weather the price differences.
To my mind, the housing market won't be the cause of a crash, but could be the victim of another. As people in this thread have pointed out, more investment firms are buying residential property. If their is another crisis that requires these firms to liquidate their assets, that could cause a huge dip in prices, due to investment firms all trying to sell at once with no one willing/able to pay the inflated prices they were purchased for/valued at.
Underrated comment. I was house hunting right after the US housing crash in 2009, and the houses that were cheap were the ones in the less wealthy parts of town, because they had been hardest hit by the economy. They weren't bad houses, but they weren't the fancy houses you would hope to be able to grab at a discount.
The houses in the wealthier part of town didn't really go on the market during that time. A few did, but they went pretty quickly without much of a discount. In general, the wealthier people just didn't sell during that time because they had the resources to weather the storm.
I'm also of the opinion that the housing market won't crash, growth will likely slow down and level off as interest rates rise.
Like 5 days ago I just locked in a 4.125% rate. I kind of feel like I'm being fucked with right now between my credit score and income to debt ratio, I would think that I should have gotten something lower. Last week online I've been seeing rates advertised as 3.7% to 4%ish...
I don't see any crash coming. Wife and I thought about waiting but our need for space/better schools wasn't waiting.
So we said fuck it and got a house. Market is wild. We had to go above asking multiple times. Lost out to investors able to pay straight up cash. We can't compete with that.
Don't wait on a crash. Prices aren't going back down.
So we said fuck it and got a house. Market is wild. We had to go above asking multiple times. Lost out to investors able to pay straight up cash. We can't compete with that.
Don't wait on a crash. Prices aren't going back down.
MTG?
And there's no way I'm buying one in two months 😭 maybe 3, 4-5 is more likely, if it's gonna happen at all. And all while I'm trying to switch to a career field where I'll be making significantly less money *sigh*
I feel trapped.
We bought a 3br 2.5ba modest home that was built in 1970 and sits on an acre of land in South Carolina. We paid $170,000 for it which I thought was nuts. I have had two offers in the last three months to buy the house site unseen. Both offers with in the $260,000 range.
We would sell but then we'd have to buy a house in this market.
I inherited a house last year that we listed for $225,000. I thought that was a good $50,000 or so overpriced. It sold for $265,000.
Things are nuts
Never say never but I don't see a crash happening. It will taper off eventually but the biggest problem right now is supply. Combine that with the fact that people locked in interest rates below 3% and people will want to hold even longer. Take out HELOCs to buy other properties while renting what they had. I feel for first time home buyers right now.
Due to the housing shortage in Canada, I expect prices will have drops, but nothing that will crater prices by more than 'lulls' of 10-20%.
Right now prices are surging partly because people are rushing to get in before the predicted rate increases hit.
Our home has doubled in selling price in just about four years, and now could go for over a million. We wouldn't be able to afford the area now if we were first time buyers. We'd like to upsize in possibly a final move, but everything is only more expensive.
Right now prices are surging partly because people are rushing to get in before the predicted rate increases hit.
Our home has doubled in selling price in just about four years, and now could go for over a million. We wouldn't be able to afford the area now if we were first time buyers. We'd like to upsize in possibly a final move, but everything is only more expensive.
Not sure if the struggle-bus or struggle-van is better at this point.
Yeah the 2008 issue was falsely inflated demand from bad loans. That could evaporate very quickly to produce a crash. The 2022 issue is under supply for legitimate demand. That can't crash nearly as quickly because no one can build houses as fast as they could stop lending for houses in 2008. The worst-case (for someone buying a house right now at least, best case for society as a whole) is that your house slowly erodes in value relative to other stuff over the next decade or two as construction ramps up to catch up to demand. Or, it fails to do so, the rapid growth in your house value continues and you get rich while society crumbles. Either way, I don't see any disaster specifically for homeowners in the horizon.
Commercial real estate, on the other hand, seems like it's been on the precipice of a real collapse for a while now.
Commercial real estate, on the other hand, seems like it's been on the precipice of a real collapse for a while now.
This seems to be true. I was seeing lots of vacancies even before the pandemic. Now with WFH being a real thing it's crunch time
My career has been primarily in the film industry so I kind of am!
sorta feels like as long as houses are generally treated like investments rather than "places for human beings to live", nothing's gonna happen :/
Up until COVID came along, people were buying houses ABOVE asking price and even waving inspections.
That stuff will probably come to an end soon with money getting tighter.
But the market in general will be fine. People will have to adapt to their cost of living region and be more sensible about their mortgages, along with everything else they gotta pay upkeep on.
That stuff will probably come to an end soon with money getting tighter.
But the market in general will be fine. People will have to adapt to their cost of living region and be more sensible about their mortgages, along with everything else they gotta pay upkeep on.
Not here they didn't. They were up 12% YoY
General advice, anything that says "despite what mass media is telling you" is full of shit.
He's comparing winter sales to April? Yah no shit, that's how the annual cycle goes. Maybe he should actually use valid comparison like month-to-month YoY.
Basically, and with the stock market being massively overvalued even more investors are looking at hard assets like land and housing to hedge against it.
That's generally expected. Winter is typically the off season for real estate. Prices go down in the winter, and so does inventory.
My wife and I closed on our house a month ago. I just checked what the rent on our previous townhouse is and it's more than our current mortgage (including PMI), lmao. We went from 3BR 1500 sq ft -> 5BR 2500 sq ft in central Orlando.
Jesus.
Jesus.
Others have said it already, but housing is not going to cause another crash like it did in 2008. It's hard to overstate how ludicrous the market was just before it all went to shit. People making $60k a year were buying second homes. Mortgage originators were just making up income amounts without the borrowers even knowing sometimes.
My city made The NY Times and I've never been more depressed. Before it was a reachable dream here, now it seems impossible.
www.nytimes.com
The Next Affordable City Is Already Too Expensive (Published 2022)
In Spokane, Wash., home prices jumped 60 percent in the past two years. The increase is fueled by buyers fleeing the boom in cities like Austin. Who will have to flee next?
If you're an enrolled member of a federally recognized Tribe, there are opportunities out there for buyers. My wife and I used one on a refi years ago which eliminated our mortgage insurance.
www.hud.gov
Bought our house in 2007 right before the housing crash for $450k. It's now valued at $1.2 million. This market is fucking insane. We're never moving.
Section 184 Indian Home Loan Guarantee Program
www.hud.gov
Bought our house in 2007 right before the housing crash for $450k. It's now valued at $1.2 million. This market is fucking insane. We're never moving.
Buy in the winter and go for homes that have been in the market for more than 3 weeks. We landed a brand new townhome with zero bids with other buyers and the builder is paying closing costs
I'm definitely not expecting a crash regardless of the fear mongering. You'll see a slowdown, which is already sort of starting to happen. I'm pulling the trigger in 2024 to buy my first house, I just need another year or two to keep saving but after that I'm not waiting anymore.
The market's in an itsy-bitsy little gully right now!
www.youtube.com
The Big Short (2015) - FrontPoint Partners' investigation in Florida & first trade [HD 1080p]
"Do people have any idea what they are buying?"..."Trust me. I am not driving 7 series without strippers."
www.youtube.com
My understanding is that the dynamics that caused the last crash in 08 are not remotely in place here. We are seeing an inflation on housing prices but there's no guarantee they are even going to go down, let alone crash.
Haha here in SoFlo they all went up again. Prices are highly regional with most metro areas and popular areas seeing nothing but growth and higher prices to continue into 2023
The biggest thing that caused the 2008 crash was banks giving home loans to people who really couldn't afford it, and didn't understand the concept of Adjustable Rates that meant the payments would go up substantially after a few years. And then banks buying and selling those bad mortgages between each other as an investment. So when lots of people suddenly couldn't make their payments all at the same time, the banks ended up with the homes, and were stuck owning all these low-value homes that they were having problems selling.
Another crash is always possible, but the perfect-storm that caused the last one was caused by specific circumstances and timing that aren't all possible/likely any more.
Another crash is always possible, but the perfect-storm that caused the last one was caused by specific circumstances and timing that aren't all possible/likely any more.
Like all things, the pricing is dynamic. Some areas are still skyrocketing up even YoY, some are stagnating. North Texas is a fucking thunderdome right now. The prices are out of control. In N. FT. Worth the places around here capped out around 275k around 5 years ago. Those same houses are like, 450-500 and now the new builds are going for as high as 650k. It's not sustainable. Sales slowed during the winter but I'm sure they'll pick back up in a few months.
There hasn't been a year since the housing crash where we've built enough houses to satisfy demand. There's no crash coming, even if prices are stabilizing a bit.
We're about to officially start the hunt soon. I think we'll have to decide if we want a home or a cool town more. I love where we live right now but we'd be lucky to find a decent starter home for under 800k
We're about to officially start the hunt soon. I think we'll have to decide if we want a home or a cool town more. I love where we live right now but we'd be lucky to find a decent starter home for under 800k
As said, January normally has decreased pricing and I did see this with my home's project value but even then it wasn't remotely a "crash" it was just some of the inflation from earlier in the summer dropping off. My 1912 700 sqft house is still solidly worth 10k+ above what I paid for it in 2019. It's not opening anything up to people who are priced out.
I was looking for a house in 2008 (pre-crash), and we were trying to get something around $350k (moderate tier in my area at the time). That was about the right amount based on accepted ratios. I called a lender to get pre-approved, and the guy let me know that he could approve me for up to a million dollars.
I was like "Do I have to pay it back?" There was no way a million dollar house was reasonable on my salary.
Very dependent on location, there is still no slowdown here in Phoenix. Home values went up another 3-4% or so since December, despite the rise in rates.
That said - it will be interesting to see what happens when interest rates settle higher. It's hard to gauge right now, since you have people scrambling to buy that locked in a lower rate from earlier and there is little supply on top of that. Lock in rates from mortgages usually only good for 60 days at most so the effect of this will be wearing off soon.
High inflation usually signals economic downturn but there generally is a lag of a year or two. It's possible we could head into a recession in a couple years but it'll probably nowhere near that of 2008 and who knows how long it could last or if it even happens. It's all just speculation.
Wish I could buy a home but it is not happening in my state anywhere close to where I live. There is little supply, too much demand, too many people coming out of state with money and too many people in state with money from the crazy market. I live in a town of 10k people (not a suburb either) and the median home price is 338k. What will that get you? 3 bed 2 bath (not bad right). What chance do I have to get it even within money? ZERO.
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