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CampFreddie

A King's Landing
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,975
We in developed countries will be fine. If you can pay £4 for a coffee in Starbucks, you'll be able to afford a moderate rise in price. We'll get first dibs on the dwindling supply, and maybe your next pumpkin-spiced frappuchino costs a few pennies more. But it won't be a big increase, because the price of the beans is a tiny part of the cost of a Starbucks (and a fairly small part of the cost for bags of coffee from the supermarket).

The impact will be felt by the developing world, where their cash crop yields drop faster than prices rise, creating huge rural poverty in areas where rural poverty is already very bad.

Coffee is massively overproduced, and is a prime example of a buyer's market, with price barely above the cost of production. It'll be a long time until there's an actual supply shortage, but production costs will rise and a lot of farmers will go out of business as market prices rise slower than costs increase (because buyers have much more market power than sellers, they can keep the price low despite rising costs). And the areas that grow coffee probably can't grow much else.
 

DavidDesu

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
5,718
Glasgow, Scotland
Oh god.

OH GOD!

I DON'T WANNA LIVE IN A WORLD WITHOUT COFFEE!

giphy.gif
Genuinely made me burst out laughing. I've never seen this. Thank you!

And yeah, this is crazy. So is coffee going to be like £10 a cup soon? The coffee shops are already half way there in the UK, lol. Why are farmers getting paid less, surely supply and demand dictates they charge more, but I guess the poor farmer sees none of that, as is the way with modern day capitalism.
 

MouldyK

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Nov 1, 2017
10,118
Why are prices plummeting when it gets harder to grow?

thecoffee.blog

Why is the coffee market price so low? ⋆ The Coffee Blog

A permanent and accumulative surplus over the years have kept the coffee market prices low. Brazil has doubled their coffee production in the past 25 years and Vietnam from a 0.1% of global share in the mid-70’s it is now the second largest coffee producer in the world.

"Consuming countries and international companies are not obligated to buy all the coffee produced in the world, especially when they have no market to sell it to. Hence, the coffee market price would remain low as long as coffee farmers keep producing large amounts of coffee, the world's consumers actually don't need or want."

Sounds like there is more Coffee being made than actually being used because they have to make more to get more money. But the price goes lower because there's too much coffee.
 

Facism

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,934
you just know coffee haters are the sort that would put milk in it if they were forced to have a cup.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,594
Why are prices plummeting when it gets harder to grow?
Big corporations dumping tons and tons of sub par produce to fill the market.
Guess people will have to get used to drinking more robusta.
Also even without climate change coffee plants are finicky as hell. Fungal infections, beetles, too much rain, too little, too much acidity, too little... Primadonnas
 

andymoogle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,339
Calling it a crisis is pretty tone deaf considering everything else that is happening due to climate change.
 

el jacko

Member
Dec 12, 2017
947
Nah, that's a stretch. Bolsonaro is evil, but even he isn't consciously aiming to increase climate change.

There's plenty of profit to be made from chopping down the rainforest without galaxy brain thinking, coffee isn't even that important for Brazil. Think soybeans, cattle ranching , logging...
That's right, it makes a lot more sense - I was pursuing a galaxy-brained conspiracy take.
 

ChrisP8Three

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,006
Leeds
Oh come on, i switched from cigarettes to coffee as my go too addition, now what do i do? i'm not smoking again
Is Tea addictive enough?
 

Kinan

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
648
Find some 30 year old beans and see how they taste?
Well, actually I think roasted beans hermetically packed can be quite good for a very long time. Not sure if anybody had a chance to study it through though. 3 years are definitely in, but what should happen in 10 if packaging is not damaged? Probably eventually protective gas will diffuse out and oxygen and water will come in, degrading the taste, but when will it happen? No idea.
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
Coffee is so cheap right now though. Even if supply is constrained by 50%, there'll still be good coffee. I already pay like ~$25/Kg (incl delivery) for the coffee I drink at home.

Well, actually I think roasted beans hermetically packed can be quite good for a very long time. Not sure if anybody had a chance to study it through though. 3 years are definitely in, but what should happen in 10 if packaging is not damaged? Probably eventually protective gas will diffuse out and oxygen and water will come in, degrading the taste, but when will it happen? No idea.
Even if you seal them, outgassing will occur. It's actually better to keep the beans green for long term storage, but even then they lose most of their flavour after a year.
 

Deleted member 6056

Oct 25, 2017
7,240
Anyone got that clip from The flash series where this exact thing happened on a parallel earth making coffee one of the most valuable items to steal from alternate earths?
 

OmegaX

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,130
Somehow the coffe plant we bought around 5 years ago decided that this was the year to finally bear fruit.
 

1.21Gigawatts

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,278
Munich
Big corporations dumping tons and tons of sub par produce to fill the market.
Guess people will have to get used to drinking more robusta.
Also even without climate change coffee plants are finicky as hell. Fungal infections, beetles, too much rain, too little, too much acidity, too little... Primadonnas

I have been to the Jamaican Blue Mountains last year and talked to one of the Blue Mountain Coffee farmers.
They are getting ripped off hard. The government passed a regulation that requires the local farmers to sell their coffee through international corporations. And these corporations engage in price dumping, despite Blue Mountain coffee being very thought after. They also were caught mixing the Blue Mountain coffee with cheap random coffee and sold it to Japan. The Japanese found out and the entire Japanese market for Blue Mountain coffee was gone.

The farmers tried to organize and make their voices heard, but they are up against huge multinational corporations that they also rely on for export logistics. It was such a depressing situation.
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
ah, I misread that as "the global gerbil diarrhoea crisis is coming" and was worried I wouldn't get my pumpkin spice latte this fall
 
Oct 28, 2017
13,691
I changed my mind on the IW vs Endgame debate.

Endgame is a much better movie. Has actual characters going through journeys, explores their inner lives, does a great job of mixing up tones (the humor actually lands this time) and the emotional payoff for the main characters is huge. IW is a good watch but it's a lesser movie
 
Oct 25, 2017
20,242
Coffee is so cheap right now though. Even if supply is constrained by 50%, there'll still be good coffee. I already pay like ~$25/Kg (incl delivery) for the coffee I drink at home.


Even if you seal them, outgassing will occur. It's actually better to keep the beans green for long term storage, but even then they lose most of their flavour after a year.

Freeze them with a vacuum sealer

A lot of coffee professionals have been testing this of late and finding it holds up really well.
 
Oct 25, 2017
20,242
I have been to the Jamaican Blue Mountains last year and talked to one of the Blue Mountain Coffee farmers.
They are getting ripped off hard. The government passed a regulation that requires the local farmers to sell their coffee through international corporations. And these corporations engage in price dumping, despite Blue Mountain coffee being very thought after. They also were caught mixing the Blue Mountain coffee with cheap random coffee and sold it to Japan. The Japanese found out and the entire Japanese market for Blue Mountain coffee was gone.

The farmers tried to organize and make their voices heard, but they are up against huge multinational corporations that they also rely on for export logistics. It was such a depressing situation.

Jamaican Blue Mountain is a rip off to the consumer. It's a prime example of corporations taking an "exotic" sounding coffee and making it out to be some high caliber thing.

Coffee producers are simply not paid enough, period. If you truly like coffee and worry about its longevity please stop buying from large companies who you can find in grocery stores and amazon.
 

Buggy Loop

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,232
Correct me if I'm wrong but, won't the « zone » in which coffee likes to grow just shift towards the poles as the climate gets warmer? Maybe the article should say, « The region in which everyone invested to grow coffee will shrink by 50% »
 

Deleted member 11976

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,585
I'm in so deep on my coffee habit that I'd happily pay $25-30 CAD for 12-ounce bags I'm normally paying $19-21 for right now. It's dirt cheap and makes so many quality cups. Once you've had good South American or African coffee bean varietals it's hard to go back! I'd like to think that if producers in counties affected by climate change and the downward trending coffee prices were compensated better things would improve but the climate change aspect is another discussion entirely since it's making it hard to grow in the usual spots.
 
Oct 25, 2017
20,242
Correct me if I'm wrong but, won't the « zone » in which coffee likes to grow just shift towards the poles as the climate gets warmer? Maybe the article should say, « The region in which everyone invested to grow coffee will shrink by 50% »

You're wrong. Coffee comes from specific regions for a reason. The soil, elevation, humidity, etc all have various impacts. Some varietals have been brought to other regions and started but you can't just fire up a coffee farm in California.
 

Dache

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,133
UK
I already pay between £9 - £12 for a 250g of beans and that's fine. I'd pay more to keep the same level of quality. There's shit for £3.50 preground in supermarkets and that's crazy. Bad coffee and no one's getting paid what they should for it. I won't be sad if that goes away. Redirect all of it to specialists, pay the farmers more and help them get the quality of their crops up.