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Switch Will Outsell PS4 Worldwide Next Year, Xbox One Will Be Third - Strategy Analytics Prediction

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To be clear, this is not about lifetime sales, it's about sales next year only

Nintendo is set to regain its leadership position in video game consoles for the first time since 2009, according to the latest projections from Strategy Analytics' Connected Home Devices service. The report, Global Game Console Market Forecast , predicts that Nintendo will sell 17.3 million Switch consoles worldwide in 2019, while Sony will sell 17.1 million PS4 and PS4 Pro consoles. Microsoft will remain in third place, selling 10.0 million Xbox One and Xbox One X devices.
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Please bear in mind this is (obviously) just a prediction. No one can tell the future. However, this is what Strategy Analytics seems to think: Switch coming in first place, PS4 coming in a close second, Xbox One selling well but still comfortably last.

Some other interesting tidbits:
  • The overall console market has performed well in 2018, with total global sales reaching 46.1 million devices, the highest level since 2010.
  • Sony is still the market leader in terms of consoles in use; it accounts for nearly half of all video games consoles in use, and 84% of these are now PS4 or PS4 Pro devices
  • Video game console ownership has been rising again in recent years; 45% of North American homes and 20% of Western European homes now own at least one console
  • The global retail value of the games console business is predicted to reach $15.4bn in 2018, an increase of 7.6%
  • 2019 revenues are expected to decline by 10% as shipment volumes and prices fall
  • By 2023 revenues will return to 2018 levels, driven by the launch of next generation systems such as the PS5 and Xbox and Switch updates
SOURCE
 
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Mahonay

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Oct 25, 2017
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Yeah, I don't think I'd make that prediction.

Either way, considering margin or error, the are actually saying they'll sell the same, which isn't a very bold or interesting prediction.
 
Saint-14

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Nov 2, 2017
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What is that FY or just next year? They are expecting the Switch to sell less next year anyways?
 
Jumpman23

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Nov 14, 2017
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Analysts so take it with a grain of salt...

I think a permanent price drop and bundled software could keep Sony out in front. However, I won't rule out Nintendo introducing new hardware that could spike sales again based on Switch Pro rumors.
 
HardRojo

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Lol that ain't happening, even during its 5th year Sony is still selling lots of PS4s, plus they only played the price card for Black Friday, they could try again next year with $250 and then a deeper discount during the holiday season and boom! With that said, I can see the Switch being a close second.
 

requiem

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Dec 3, 2017
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17.3 million seems a little low. Surely Switch will sell more next year than this year? Smash is huge but it's hard to beat a mainline Pokemon game and 2D Mario in one year.
 
logash

logash

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This would be quite amazing for PS4 considering it would be the platforms 6th year on the market no? It's crazy that it still sells as much as it does.
 
Quinton

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Analysts are telling me two polar opposite tales simultaneously.

My only recourse is to assume they're all mistaken, and every single console will stop selling any units whatsoever.
 
Ricky_R

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Why do I keep seeing threads by this OP? Are you a thread generating bot?

Don't lie to me with reply algorithms
 
Kouriozan

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Would be weird if it didn't to be honest, PS4 had is golden year already and if the Switch can't peak at year 3, this would be worrying.
 

>__

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It would be surprising if SW did not beat PS4. Its PS4's sixth year while it would be SW's third which is usually (and most likely) going to be the peak of SW sales.

If PS4 has another 17 million+ year that would be insane, though I think SW will be able to do near 20 million.
 
CaviarMeths

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Oct 25, 2017
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Predicting Switch as the market leader for next year is a safe enough bet. It's probably going to be fairly close this year between PS4 and Switch. Next year, both PS4 and XB1 will be down YoY and Switch will be up.

But they're predicting a decline in what should be their peak year. If they're talking about shipped, then this prediction is absurdly low. Shipments will be over 20m for 2019 calendar year.
 
Saint-14

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Nov 2, 2017
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Switch outselling the PS4 shouldn't be controversial btw, they should do it this year too as long as they hit their forecast, that Xbox figure seems too high though? Same for PS4 I'd say.
 
Ryengeku

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Nintendo's 2019 will be a hell of a lot better than 2018 (for me personally) along with a new switch model being rumored for 2019.
Depending on how Sony will deliver info on PS5 next year since they won't be attending E3, sales could potentially slow down in the wake of PS5 launching in 2020. But Sony still also has TLOU2 & Death Stranding to combat that prediction.

It's still a little hard to believe but not completely far-fetched in my opinion.
 
9-Volt

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Depends on what the new Switch SKU is. If it's a small, cheaper compact version of current Switch, things will be very different. A $200 Switch Mini alongside of Pokémon gen 8 and Animal Crossing sounds pretty unbeatable.
 
anexanhume

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Maybe if there's no MSRP movement and no super slim revision.

But they've got Ghosts, Death Stranding and TLOU2 coming to move units.
 
enigmatic_alex44

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Ryengeku said:
Nintendo's 2019 will be a hell of a lot better than 2018 (for me personally) along with a new switch model being rumored for 2019.
Depending on how Sony will deliver info on PS5 next year since they won't be attending E3, sales could potentially slow down in the wake of PS5 launching in 2020. But Sony still also has TLOU2 & Death Stranding to combat that prediction.

It's still a little hard to believe but not completely far-fetched in my opinion.
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A new model ain't happening hun. Nintendo would be so stupid to alienate their already large fan base and the Switch is a premium portable console, not a handheld.

Like the Wii U, the Switch won (but in sales this time).
 

Deleted member 10629

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Oct 27, 2017
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With Pokémon and Animal Crossing the Switch is expected to sell huge.

Whether it will outsell the PS4, depends on the pricing strategy, methinks.
 
get2sammyb

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The PS4 has to tail off at some point, so it's not much of a surprise really. Switch is just about hitting its prime now, so it makes sense. Sony does still have price adjustments and possible hardware revisions it could use to give it another boost, but I definitely think they see some decline next year, which is only natural.
 
SilverX

SilverX

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Jan 21, 2018
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I mean Switch is so much younger than the PS4, how can it not outsell next year with a possible price cut and new model?

Its insane that the PS4 is selling so well that in its 6th year people are unsure if it can be topped
 
vestan

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I'm convinced Death Stranding is a late 2019 game but I'm not expecting it to sell consoles like Spider-Man did.
 
Ridley327

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I do think that 2019 will ultimately depend on just what Sony is planning to do with TLOU2, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushima. Assuming that PS5 is H1 2020, that puts at least one of those games in an interesting position in terms of timing, which leads me to believe that we'd only get two of those games with a PS5 reveal promise that they'll be further enhanced on that hardware past what the PS4 Pro can do, leaving one as a true cross-gen title. TLOU2 is the biggest game of that trio by far, but one does wonder just how Sony wants to position it at this point.

Switch is looking to have a fantastic 2019 on paper with the hardware revision and what's already shaping up to be a terrific lineup just from what we know, but I do think that Sony still has some fight left in their system to give it a damn good run for its money.
 
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