Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade (See Staff Post)

[Sloth Guevara]

I don't think it's a sure blue district for any Democrat. Cuellar got 58% last time but he outperformed Biden by 7%. I don't think it's gonna be a cake walk for him this year, and it's absolutely possible that Cisneros would have lost a race Cuellar could win.

That being said, he got the endorsements because he was the incumbent, thats the deal the party makes with sitting politicians. I would have preferred Cisneros getting the chance to run in the general over Cuellar, but ultimately it's the people of the Texas 28th that made that decision.


That's really not how things work. Most people don't vote in the primary.

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I don't think it is a better bet with a anti abortion candidate. Sorry.

From the raw numbers I've seen the dems had about 45k vote in their primary v R have less then 15k.
I'll retract my statement if y'all can show me polls that show that we'd see a 30k independent swing towards R in that district.

 

[El Bombastico]

People don't like to hear it, but the only way to get the laws you want is to vote in people who will carry out your views.

Republicans win because they put all their effort to win seats at the local level. They are openly stating their desire to rig the next election and are putting people in place at all of those lower levels.

How often do they protest in large numbers? Not very often because they are too busy being laser focused on local seats with grass root movements.

Protesting and marching doesn't do anything if elected officials don't care. Republicans have people in place willing to break the law while in office in order to accomplish their goals.

Pressure campaigns don't matter if it doesn't result in getting your people elected. I don't know why people don't get that. Only winning matters.

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Yeah, protests only work when the side you're protesting can be shamed into backing down. And Republicans have long ago learned that they can be utterly shameless and still get what they want.

 

[Nepenthe]

apologies! i thought my deliberate pro-arnarchy posts in here were a lil more obvious 😅

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Apologies to you; I've been going in and out of this thread. It's moving lightning fast and I've got animation to produce!

 

[Sloth Guevara]

Democratic primary runoff ≠ general election

Any district that falls that hard from 2016 to 2020 isn't a "sure blue district".

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I think he squeaked by cause as a politician he isn't that great tbh. Pls read my other post for my deeper analysis.

 

[Deleted member 93062]

I don't think it is a better bet with a anti abortion candidate. Sorry.

From the raw numbers I've seen the dems had about 45k vote in their primary v R have less then 15k.
I'll retract my statement if y'all can show me polls that show that we'd see a 30k independent swing towards R in that district.

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This is an awful analysis of it. Democrat's runoff was much more contested and even had national attention. Republican one seemingly was a surefire victory for Cassy Garcia. Of course, the Democratic runoff will have more people at it.

 

[Deleted member 43]

I don't think it is a better bet with a anti abortion candidate. Sorry.

From the raw numbers I've seen the dems had about 45k vote in their primary v R have less then 15k.
I'll retract my statement if y'all can show me polls that show that we'd see a 30k independent swing towards R in that district.

Click to shrink...

That's…not at all a meaningful way of judging the environment of the general. The Dems had a very big, well publicized primary with national attention. The GOP did not.

What does matter is, while Cuellar won the last election by 20%, Biden won by 4. That means the district likes Cuellar a lot more then it likes Democrats. And in as hard a cycle as 2022 will be, that could easily make the difference.

And I get still wanting Cisneros to be the nom with that risk, I would make the same decision if I could. But I just don't think it's at all accurate to say the district is a sure thing, or that Cuellar does not have some clear electoral advantages for the general over Cisneros.

 

[Deleted member 93062]

That's…not at all a meaningful way of judging the environment of the general. The Dems had a very big, well publicized primary with national attention. The GOP did not.

What does matter is, while Cuellar won the last election by 20%, Biden won by 4. That means the district likes Cuellar a lot more then it likes Democrats. And in as hard a cycle 2022 will be, that could easily make the difference.

And I get still wanting Cisneros to be the nom with that risk, I would make the same decision if I could. But I just don't think it's at all accurate to say the district is a sure thing, or that Cuellar does not have some clear electoral advantages for the general over Cisneros.

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I didn't even know the difference in Cuellar's last election and Biden's in that district. I was just looking at presidential elections, and it fell off of a cliff after 2016.

Seems kind of obvious why they'd back Cuellar.

 

[bruhaha]

I don't think it is a better bet with a anti abortion candidate. Sorry.

From the raw numbers I've seen the dems had about 45k vote in their primary v R have less then 15k.
I'll retract my statement if y'all can show me polls that show that we'd see a 30k independent swing towards R in that district.

Click to shrink...

TX-34, another district in southern Texas, voted +22 Hillary and +4 Biden, very similar to TX-28 (+20 Hillary, +4 Biden) in those elections. TX-34 last week had a special election after the Dem incumbent had resigned. They elected a Qanon-believing, Jan 6 denying pro-life Republican in a D+5 district.

Cuellar's TX-28 district is majority Hispanic (78% vs 84% in TX-34) and Hispanics in Texas are both more Democratic and more pro-life than whites in Texas so re-electing a pro-life Dem in that district since 2004 is not against the population's views. Of course I'd rather have a progressive in that seat but she has a lower chance of winning and it's understandable why Dem leadership would support the incumbent.

 

[Sloth Guevara]

Read through the last replies. Still not seeing what I asked for.

 

[Deleted member 43]

Read through the last replies. Still not seeing what I asked for.

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…because what you asked for doesn't make any sense?

 

[Muse98]

Would it be a bad idea to have every newly elected president also pick a brand new Supreme Court every 4 years?

 

[Deleted member 43]

Would it be a bad idea to have every newly elected president also pick a brand new Supreme Court every 4 years?

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Yes? Because then the SC would just be a branch of the executive.

We would be effectively electing a King every 4 years.

 

[Muse98]

Yes? Because then the SC would just be a branch of the executive.

We would be effectively electing a King every 4 years.

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And how would that be worse than what we have now?

 

[Deleted member 43]

And how would that be worse than what we have now?

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Well we wouldn't have had 50 years of abortion access for one….

 

[TheMadTitan]

And how would that be worse than what we have now?

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I'm black in America; I can think of several ways.

 

[Sloth Guevara]

…because what you asked for doesn't make any sense?

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my first reply was snarky. And just cause people are snarky doesn't mean I should be too.

I'm just asking for relevant polls that show that the challenger would have done worse in a general election compared to the incumbent.
Not how Biden performed but polling relevant to the race.

 

[crazillo]

Terrible, terrible decision. Just imagine the law now changing depending on who governs the state every couple of years... I cannot believe some US states are going back to the 1950s. This is a topic where a nationl consensus needs to exist but should not be pushed through against any cost for a political agenda, it must be amicable. As a German, this is all incomprehensible to me. Being pregnant, nobody makes an easy decision for or against abortion, but it's a highly personal one and should remain so.

 

[bruhaha]

my first reply was snarky. And just cause people are snarky doesn't mean I should be too.

I'm just asking for relevant polls that show that the challenger would have done worse in a general election compared to the incumbent.
Not how Biden performed but polling relevant to the race.

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An incumbent with established name recognition gives several points advantage vs an open seat challenger.

Exploring the Incumbency Advantage - Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The incumbency advantage in U.S. House races, at least during this decade, has been relatively minor. — There’s no evidence that longer-serving incumbents build a larger incumbency advantage over time. This decade’s marginal incumbency edge It may be the oldest...

centerforpolitics.org

 

[Garrett 2U]

Republicans really are trying hard to torpedo every fucking institution in this country. A real awful day for this country.

 

[Deleted member 43]

I mean using Biden as a measurement for Cisneros doesn't make sense to me either yet here we are.

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Using the delta between how the Presidential candidate performs and how a Congressman performs in a given district to estimate the Congressman's relative popularity vs. a generic member of their same party is…completely standard, reasonable, and following established practice. With the huge delta between Biden and Cuellar, it's very difficult to not draw the reasonable conclusion that Cuellar is more popular than Democrats in general in the district.

What's baseless is the idea that you can translate primary turnout to general election results in such a manner. Like I said, the Democratic primary was hotly contested with national attention. The Republican primary was not. The idea that we need to show you a poll that will bridge the 30k vote difference in turnout between the two primaries is…I'm sorry, it's absurd request that doesn't make any sense. 200k people are probably going to vote in the 28th in 2022.

 

[Sloth Guevara]

An incumbent with established name recognition gives several points advantage vs an open seat challenger.

Exploring the Incumbency Advantage - Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The incumbency advantage in U.S. House races, at least during this decade, has been relatively minor. — There’s no evidence that longer-serving incumbents build a larger incumbency advantage over time. This decade’s marginal incumbency edge It may be the oldest...

centerforpolitics.org

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I was very specific with what I was asking for.
Is this the polling for that race I'm talking about?

 

[Arkanim94]

This leadership is absolute dogshit, my god.

 

[Deleted member 43]

I was very specific with what I was asking for.
Is this the polling for that race I'm talking about?

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This polling request:

I'll retract my statement if y'all can show me polls that show that we'd see a 30k independent swing towards R in that district.

Click to shrink...

doesn't make any sense. It's complete nonsense.

 

[bruhaha]

I was very specific with what I was asking for.
Is this the polling for that race I'm talking about?

Click to shrink...

If that's the only thing you're asking for, is it too much to take the effort to Google to see if that poll exists? Polls cost money to run, not every permutation of candidates are going to be run prior to a primary, and even if they are paid for by candidates many of them are not made public. I don't think anyone working in any of the TX-28 campaigns would post a poll here of all places that wasn't publicly available.

 

[Sloth Guevara]

Using the delta between how the Presidential candidate performs and how a Congressman performs in a given district to estimate the Congressman's relative popularity vs. a generic member of their same party is…completely standard, reasonable, and following established practice. With the huge delta between Biden and Cuellar, it's very difficult to not draw the reasonable conclusion that Cuellar is more popular than Democrats in general in the district.

What's baseless is the idea that you can translate primary turnout to general election results in such a manner. Like I said, the Democratic primary was hotly contested with national attention. The Republican primary was not. The idea that we need to show you a poll that will bridge the 30k vote difference in turnout between the two primaries is…I'm sorry, it's absurd request that doesn't make any sense. 200k people are probably going to vote in the 28th in 2022.

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I'm not sure I can take anyone who calls Cisneros "generic member of their same party" seriously.

I have asked for more evidence that she would have suffered defeat in the general election.
Thus far you've yet to show it.

 

[Deleted member 43093]

Women and children are going to die in the thousands and Era has 71 pages of men talking over each other about republicans and democrats and 2016.

Not 1 single thought among you lot about how misogyny, patriarchy and religions around the world have been trying since forever to put down women and keep them there by all means. Not 1.

Look in the mirror. You are the problem.

 

[Mancha]

I've been avoiding looking at this thread. It makes me feel powerless and hopeless for the future, and I still live in a country where Bolsonaro is President, despite thinking that Lula is coming to save our asses over here. I think small initiatives like this one are incredibly important, and I'm not sure if this was shared here before:



Let good ideas like those to multiply, and demand for changes with the Supreme Court asap, both when it comes to they having a mandate for life and the current number of judges before they go through with yet more reprocesses.

Stay strong, USA Era. 💚💛

 

[ioriyagami]

How is it that one of the youngest countries in the first world feels the oldest? the US keep going backwards instead of forwards, regressing instead of progressing. It needs a serious constitutional reform, but what could even make that possible? I just don't think the tension the population is in is sustainable. It's a scary situation...

 

[Sloth Guevara]

If that's the only thing you're asking for, is it too much to take the effort to Google to see if that poll exists? Polls cost money to run, not every permutation of candidates are going to be run prior to a primary, and even if they are paid for by candidates many of them are not made public. I don't think anyone working in any of the TX-28 campaigns would post a poll here of all places that wasn't publicly available.

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The dude won by 200 votes. I'm just asking how and by what metric you come to the conclusion he'd do better in the general.
He has over the last two elections been bleeding votes.

 

[danm999]

How is it that one of the youngest countries in the first world feels the oldest? the US keep going backwards instead of forwards, regressing instead of progressing. It needs a serious constitutional reform, but what could even make that possible? I just don't think the tension the population is in is sustainable. It's a scary situation...

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it's a young country but it's Constitution is pretty much the oldest in the world.

most modern nations wrote their own Constitutions far, far later.

 

[Pekola]

This is really dire. I can't imagine the fear of your choices being taken like this.

What I'm wondering is, how do you come back from this with the Supreme Court being what it is? Because tbh, it's not gonna stop at women's bodily autonomy.

 

[Deleted member 43]

I'm not sure I can take anyone who calls Cisneros "generic member of their same party" seriously.

I have asked for more evidence that she would have suffered defeat in the general election.
Thus far you've yet to show it.

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Cisneros is, for all intents and purposes for this discussion, a generic Democratic. She is not an incumbent, she has not held previous elected office, she has never won a public election of any kind. She would be starting from zero, with the D next to her name being her primary defining feature, as party affiliation is with all first time candidates.

And, point of fact, I never said she would inevitably suffer defeat in the general. You said the district was a safe Democratic district. I pointed out that is simply not true, and provided supporting evidence for that position (that bruhaha expanded on nicely). I then pointed out that Cuellar, based again on the data we have, is far more popular than a generic Democrat in the Texas 28th. And, considering how difficult 2022 is going to be for Democrats, starting from a position of already established electoral over-performance puts Cuellar in a advantageous position.

You have demand to see polling that doesn't exist (and, in terms of your original demand, simply cannot exist because it didn't make any sense) to fight an argument no one has made. No one said Cisneros couldn't win, we only said, supported by the data we do actually have, that it's not unreasonable to believe Cuellar has a better shot of wining in the general.

Do you have any data that would indicate otherwise?

 

[Arcus Felis]

... This is sickening. The USA truly are regressing. This is reaching "The Handmaid's Tale" dystopia levels.
My thoughts are with you all. This is fucked beyond belief.

 

[YolkFolk]

In classic fashion the 'pro life' crowd are mostly pro guns. Go figure.

 

[bruhaha]

The dude won by 200 votes. I'm just asking how and by what metric you come to the conclusion he'd do better in the general.
He has over the last two elections been bleeding votes.

Click to shrink...

I provided two relevant responses, one with data from a very similar district in the same state that lost an incumbent and another with data about generic incumbency advantage. You are right, a direct poll would be a better answer to your question but it doesn't exist. No one is denying that his last few elections have been closer but they are in line with the general trend of that area becoming more Republican. It shifting from +20 to +4 at the top of the ticket is a reason Dem leadership is paying attention to it, since the House margin is slim and losing any seat could be the last straw on keeping the majority. If the district was +25 in 2020 I doubt leadership would care who won the primary.

 

[Dog]

Ah fuck how awful :(

 

[Sloth Guevara]

Cisneros is, for all intents and purposes for this discussion, a generic Democratic. She is not an incumbent, she has not held previous elected office, she has never won a public election of any kind. She would be starting from zero, with the D next to her name being her primary defining feature, as party affiliation is with all first time candidates.

And, point of fact, I never said she would inevitably suffer defeat in the general. You said the district was a safe Democratic district. I pointed out that is simply not true, and provided supporting evidence for that position (that bruhaha expanded on nicely). I then pointed out that Cuellar, based again on the data we have, is far more popular than a generic Democrat in the Texas 28th. And, considering how difficult 2022 is going to be for Democrats, starting from a position of already established electoral over-performance puts Cuellar in a advantageous position.

You have demand to see polling that doesn't exist (and, in terms of your original demand, simply cannot exist because it didn't make any sense) to fight an argument no one has made. No one said Cisneros couldn't win, we only said, supported by the data we do actually have, that it's not unreasonable to believe Cuellar has a better shot of wining in the general.

Do you have any data that would indicate otherwise?

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Calling someone who hasn't held office generic is sure something. Cuellar had the full support of the democratic establishment and nearly lost.

The district has been a safe blue district but the incumbent has been loosing votes.
And that is cause he doesn't properly represent the voters.
You are just assuming it has to do with people becoming more conservative.

 

[Deleted member 43]

Calling someone who hasn't held office generic is sure something. Cuellar had the full support of the democratic establishment and nearly won.

The district has been a safe blue district but the incumbent has been loosing votes.
And that is cause he doesn't properly represent the voters.
You are just assuming it has to do with people becoming more conservative.

Click to shrink...

"Generic Democrat" is a term in polling that means the vote they can get if people were simply voting by party. It's not a judgment on the candidate, it's a estimate about where they may start in terms of polling numbers until they have a chance to establish a more specific individual connection with the electorate, that can then them above or below the generic Democrat level.

Do you have any actual data to back up your point that south Texas is not becoming more conservative? Because all the evidence seems to point otherwise. And if you think Cuellar is too conservative for his distric, how do you explain the fact that he did beat Cisneros in the primary (twice), an electorate that is much more progressive than the general election voters will be in November?

But really this tangent should just end, it's gone way too far off topic.

 

[DJ Lushious]

Calling someone who hasn't held office generic is sure something. Cuellar had the full support of the democratic establishment and nearly lost.

The district has been a safe blue district but the incumbent has been loosing votes.
And that is cause he doesn't properly represent the voters.
You are just assuming it has to do with people becoming more conservative.

Click to shrink...

I'm sorry, I'm pissed off for a lot of reasons, but why do I have to suffer through this bullshit after one of the darkest days in my life? I turn to the only community I have for support and see this train of posts arguing over political data over one political person/district. Can't you take this shit to a more appropriate place so I can grieve in the appropriate thread?!

 

[Grug]

There really are two different Americas. Again.

How do you hold a nation like this together in a Democratic way when there is so much ideological division, which only seems to be getting worse.

Irreconcilable.

 

[Deleted member 8579]

Do you expect voter turnout to be off the charts in the midterms?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

So why back one?
Also how many of the 64 had similar stories with being an incumbent and just getting it the party okay cause of that?
Honest question, cause I don't know.

Click to shrink...

Given that this has zero bearing on the ability to pass anything then or now, why focus on it? Why is your response to the fact that Democrats have largely gotten rid of anti-choice candidates to focus on the past, or the one remaining?

 

[Cudpug]

As many pro life nutjobs as there are, there must be a good chunk of Republican voters who DON'T support this, right? Like Republican voters abort too.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

This leadership is absolute dogshit, my god.

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I sure am glad there are people out there focusing their followers on the right target.

/s

 

[Helix]

please let me know how many brain cells you lost after watching this clip.

thanks!

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

As many pro life nutjobs as there are, there must be a good chunk of Republican voters who DON'T support this, right? Like Republican voters abort too.

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Abortion Trends by Party Identification

This page provides Gallup's long-term trends on Americans' views about abortion by party identification.

news.gallup.com

Legal under certain circumstances is pretty popular among the GOP. Depends on what those are of course, and notably many states' laws go well beyond that.

 

[TheEchosOfTheCyborg]

As many pro life nutjobs as there are, there must be a good chunk of Republican voters who DON'T support this, right? Like Republican voters abort too.

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Their maybe some but that doesn't mean they'll not stop voting Republican.

Can't speak what it's like in the US but in the UK with the Tories, you get this mentality of "Well they've done things I don't agree with but it's the right thing to do/patriotic thing to do/the other party will do worse/nothing I can do!" etc etc. Then you have peer pressure etc.

 

[FarronFox]

This is somewhat like the Taliban taking over in the US, where they don't want women to be able to do things.

 

[Cudpug]

Their maybe some but that doesn't mean they'll not stop voting Republican.

Can't speak what it's like in the US but in the UK with the Tories, you get this mentality of "Well they've done things I don't agree with but it's the right thing to do/patriotic thing to do/the other party will do worse/nothing I can do!" etc etc. Then you have peer pressure etc.

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Yeah I'm in the UK myself and I see a lot of "Tories are criminals, they are a disgrace, can Boris fall any lower? But I'll still vote them in because I've always voted Tory / it's better than Labour".

Constantly voting to shoot themselves in the foot, but what's new?

 

[Sloth Guevara]

"Generic Democrat" is a term in polling that means the vote they can get if people were simply voting by party. It's not a judgment on the candidate, it's a estimate about where they may start in terms of polling numbers until they have a chance to establish a more specific individual connection with the electorate, that can then them above or below the generic Democrat level.

Do you have any actual data to back up your point that south Texas is not becoming more conservative? Because all the evidence seems to point otherwise. And if you think Cuellar is too conservative for his distric, how do you explain the fact that he did beat Cisneros in the primary (twice), an electorate that is much more progressive than the general election voters will be in November?

But really this tangent should just end, it's gone way too far off topic.

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Not south Texas but it's something.
Again this data coupled with the FACT that the incumbent has been loosing voting percentages leads me to draw different conclusions.

Latino voters favor raising minimum wage, government involvement in health care, stricter gun laws

Most Latino registered voters (71%) say they want government to be more involved in solving the nation’s problems.

www.pewresearch.org