Super Smash Bros. Ultimate DT10 | News, Site Updates, and Speculation | A Change Of The Heart

[Lunar15]

I think people have the wrong impression of how "insider" info works. They think it's some kind of clandestine phone conversation, like deepthroat. As someone who works in advertising and has had my fair share of gaming NDAs surrounding creative materials, it's more that people tend to talk around stuff, and if you're a journalist talking to other journalists, there's usually stuff everyone collectively hears some version of. You can't prove it and there's no direct source, but things get said around the industry and you pick up on it.

For example, Nintendo actually sent out requests for proposals to publishers for Labo long before they announced it. The details were vague, but you could surmise that there was some kind of interactive, creative thing being worked on. Ad teams at gaming websites were no doubt talking about this with journalists present, but everything was vague and hard to confirm at the time.

 

[TDLink]

There's no real reason for a game company to do fake leaks, especially if it's something as hype-driven as the Smash roster. This Reddit thread basically suggests that only a few companies have done it, and it usually targets dataminers to throw them off.

If they leaked characters people wanted, and they weren't in, that'd back fire. But if they leaked characters no one wanted, like I dunno, Rusty of Real Deal Baseball fame, then everyone would be like "well that's fake"

At least with story spoilers it kinda makes sense to muddy the waters beforehand

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The point of "leak bait" isn't really to create fake leaks for the public, but to catch employees who are breaching company trust and attempting to leak things to the public.

 

[Biggad]

Can somebody give me some idea about this: what would "unrelated" source mean in this context, is a marketing firm unrelated as well?

Additionally, what reasoning could there be for Nintendo (!) to hand out the roster list (so, a list of names) to somebody else? Who would be able to work with just a list of names?

 

[ShinobiBk]

I find it funny that people always talk about Imran hunting at a Square character when he specifically mentioned Bandai Namco not having another rep in that tweet too. Why ignore that part?

 

[NotLiquid]

The thing that bugs me about Incineroar is that what I would imagine his playstyle to be would be very reminiscent of what Bowser plays like. Bowser already has a lot of wrestling style based moves in his set, and he breaths fire, and can claw people too.

The idea of Incineroar just doesn't scream unique to me is all.

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Incineroar is canonically lighter in weight than Charizard, who in turn is lighter in weight than Bowser. He most likely wouldn't be a superheavy.

 

[Yavga]

Ehhh, Ryce likely has some info but remember he claimed Daisy getting in would be totally absurd just a month before she was revealed.

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But that would mean his source is just wrong if what you say is true? Not wanting to be rude but that doesn't help his credibility now, or am I missing something?

I mean, PapaGenos says he has a trustworthy source as well, but we simply cannot verify anything, so how can we simply trust anybody really if they are all saying different things? XD

 

[Dark Cloud]

I find it funny that people always talk about Imran hunting at a Square character when he specifically mentioned Bandai Namco not having another rep in that tweet too. Why ignore that part?

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Because I believe he came out and spoke against Bandai Namco rep being a hint from him.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Y'know, just ken getting revealed would actually clear everything up. We'd see what his art looks like on the mural.

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Shoryuken is Ken's signature move. I am 90% confident he will be doing that in the mural, so I am certain the madness shall continue.

 

[TDLink]

I find it funny that people always talk about Imran hunting at a Square character when he specifically mentioned Bandai Namco not having another rep in that tweet too. Why ignore that part?

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IIRC, he posted after that more specifically about a Square character. And since has clarified it was about a Square character. Vergeben also has only talked about a Square character.

 

[Tye]

Reposting this since it didn't get much attention last night and I still haven't seen anyone else discussing this possibility:

Okay, so, I don't know what to believe regarding this alleged leak. Almost all signs seem to point to it being legitimate to me, but the odd discrepancies with the empty Battlefield background between the leaked banner and the official E3 version seem to strongly suggest that it is likely fake after all. But I still find that hard to believe with everything else... So I thought of a possible scenario that I haven't seen brought up before:

What if Nintendo only provided the marketing company that the leak came from with the full banner image with all the fighters, and not the empty background version? What if the employee really did create the empty version, but did so for the project, not as part of a fake leak? Like, how unlikely would it have been for Nintendo to ask this company to make some of these wrist straps/lanyards/whatever they're supposed to be, but didn't actually provide them with a specific design in mind beyond being Smash Bros. Ultimate themed using whatever assets were provided? What if it was a creative decision from the marketing employee to make an empty version of the background that they could slap the logo on and loop in with the full version in order to fill the length of the object? I know it's kind of a convoluted explanation, but it could explain things... Maybe this is a likely possibility, or maybe it sounds crazy; I honestly have no idea. But I haven't seen anyone else suggest this possibility, so I just thought I'd throw it out there, however unlikely it may be!

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Maybe someone more familiar with this field of work may be able to say if this is a plausible scenario or not.

Also, regarding insiders' info not matching up exactly with the leaked banner, perhaps this could be explained by some fighters being either early DLC or some kind of free post-launch updates à la Splatoon and ARMS? Sakurai did say that the "designs" for all the fighters would be revealed by launch, but what if that just means that we'll see the designs of some post-launch fighters in the banner art, but they won't show gameplay just yet? If they're not actually in the game yet, that could explain why insiders haven't seen them. The lack of Incineroar and any other potential missing fighter on the banner is really weird, though, and I'm not sure what the explanation could be for that...

Still not 100% sold on the leak being real, but this whole situation is so bizarre...

 

[Lunar15]

Shoryuken is Ken's signature move. I am 90% confident he will be doing that in the mural, so I am certain the madness shall continue.

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I mean, we'd be able to tell if he's in *that* spot and matching *that* artwork.

 

[TimeFire]

100 pages!

For a thread created yesterday

 

[Dark Cloud]

But that would mean his source is just wrong if what you say is true? Not wanting to be rude but that doesn't help his credibility now, or am I missing something?

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Ryce said he didn't have Smash information at that time.

 

[Hailinel]

I find it funny that people always talk about Imran hunting at a Square character when he specifically mentioned Bandai Namco not having another rep in that tweet too. Why ignore that part?

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People do talk abou it, but mostly either write another Bandai Namco rep off as Heihachi or shrug when KOS-MOS is brought up.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

I think people have the wrong impression of how "insider" info works. They think it's some kind of clandestine phone conversation, like deepthroat. As someone who works in advertising and has had my fair share of gaming NDAs surrounding creative materials, it's more that people tend to talk around stuff, and if you're a journalist talking to other journalists, there's usually stuff everyone collectively hears some version of. You can't prove it and there's no direct source, but things get said around the industry and you pick up on it.

For example, Nintendo actually sent out requests for proposals to publishers for Labo long before they announced it. The details were vague, but you could surmise that there was some kind of interactive, creative thing being worked on. Ad teams at gaming websites were no doubt talking about this with journalists present, but everything was vague and hard to confirm at the time.

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All of this.

It's like I said earlier:

Insiders do what we do: speculate and estimate based on available information. Sometimes they have more insight than we do, but it's rare they know things for sure or have first-hand information. When they speculate, they have to be careful of the fact they might be wrong too, plus they have to respect and protect their sources.

Usually certainty comes down to trust. People trust somebody who told them something. If you have a friend who works at Nintendo who tells you things all the time that are always true, you will believe them when they say "Incineroar is definitely in Super Smash Bros," But you don't know first-hand. You trust your source because you've built up a relationship with them that gives you confidence in their testimony. But you can't confirm it outright because you don't know.

So you can choose to believe the person you know, who has never lied to you, or you can believe something unproven on the internet. However compelling the banner leak is, they must reconcile what they're now seeing with what they've been told, and that means they must adopt their speculation accordingly. Some choose to simply not believe the banner leak because this is the most natural conclusion to come to if you believe your information is good. You have reasons to trust your sources and those reasons are stronger than whatever reason you have to believe the banner rumor.

Perhaps the original design document roster list for Smash Ultimate is common knowledge among various industry members and we have a Chrom situation on our hands. Or maybe Incineroar is meant to be revealed soon and various people are familiar enough with the marketing to be 100% assured the character is coming. But the certainty over Incineroar comes from somewhere and it's widespread enough that journalists and friends of the industry are extremely confident the character is coming.

So if this banner leak is real, it is very difficult to reconcile that fact with information you believe beyond doubt. If the banner leak is real, the explanation for this inconsistency is unknowable, which means these industry insiders are back to speculating just like we are. If there is some explanation for Incineroar's absence, they don't know and can only guess. Many will simply conclude the leak must be a very convincing fake and this is a natural, educated conclusion to come to based on the information you have.

But I think that every layman can see plainly from this entire ordeal that, if nothing else, Incineroar is supposed to be in the roster. Whether he is or isn't is anyone's guess.

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[Deleted member 176]

I find it funny that people always talk about Imran hunting at a Square character when he specifically mentioned Bandai Namco not having another rep in that tweet too. Why ignore that part?

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Goku haters

 

[Xwing]

I mean, in fairness I am a box theorist. I just don't see why we're doing mental gymnastics to believe a blurry picture that's being disputed by every insider, rather than looking at the box which is official from Nintendo and corollates with what the insiders are saying.

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Because Kenceneroar is the lamest ending to an anime of all time and the box theory is based on just as many assumptions as blog theory or Isaac theory or the banner leak? To believe so badly in box theory, you have to assume that

1: The people who designed the online special edition box placeholder were given knowledge of the final roster size
2: There are no additional character windows on the back or the bottom of the box
3: That the blank space on the placeholder art is not simply a placeholder for a bar code

Box theory requires just as much mental gymnastics.

Edited: spelling

 

[ResetGreyWolf]

I miss the days when everyone thought Skull Kid was gonna be in

 

[Regulus Tera]

I mean, we'd be able to tell if he's in *that* spot and matching *that* artwork.

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But we already know the characters get moved around. As long as the orientation is the same (meaning he has his right arm raised), there's the possibility that he can get shuffled in further updates

 

[Deleted member 2791]

incineroar would be a super cool character i have no issues with him
it's just that they won't end with only one newcomer and one echo, that's like the only thing that people are against i think

 

[Rotobit]

Reposting this since it didn't get much attention last night and I still haven't seen anyone else discussing this possibility:

Maybe someone more familiar with this field of work may be able to say if this is a plausible scenario or not.

Also, regarding insiders' info not matching up exactly with the leaked banner, perhaps this could be explained by some fighters being either early DLC or some kind of free post-launch updates à la Splatoon and ARMS? Sakurai did say that the "designs" for all the fighters would be revealed by launch, but what if that just means that we'll see the designs of some post-launch fighters in the banner art, but they won't show gameplay just yet? If they're not actually in the game yet, that could explain why insiders haven't seen them. The lack of Incineroar and any other potential missing fighter on the banner is really weird, though, and I'm not sure what the explanation could be for that...

Still not 100% sold on the leak being real, but this whole situation is so bizarre...

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the discrepency could be that they're mock-ups that'd be shown to Nintendo France for approval, but that'd be a lot of work when they could make it look a lot simpler to get the same idea across

 

[Ryce]

The thing that bugs me about Incineroar is that what I would imagine his playstyle to be would be very reminiscent of what Bowser plays like. Bowser already has a lot of wrestling style based moves in his set, and he breaths fire, and can claw people too.

The idea of Incineroar just doesn't scream unique to me is all.

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I'm just spitballing -- this is pure speculation on my part -- but maybe...

Smash attacks - traditional wrestling weapons like chairs and broken tables
B - a fiery vortex that shoots out from its flame belt, with its reach/power dependent on the intensity of its belt (which increases as it dishes out damage and shrinks as it takes damage)
>B - a chargeable spinning lariat with good horizontal recovery
^B - an aimable cat pounce that could link into a command grab on impact
vB - poison mist that slowly drains health, or maybe even a counter throw
FS - Malicious Moonsault, obviously

Maybe you could even hold the grab button to activate a strong grapple like in certain wrestling games, giving it access to a whole new set of powerful throws.

Sure, its standard attacks would probably be punches, kicks, and claw swipes, but that applies to a good portion of the roster already. Everything else would set it apart from Bowser.

 

[Demon Eyes]

Ridley looks so damn cool.

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The Ness as well. Saw a different video and I'm glad they fixed his down air

 

[Tibarn]

100 pages!

For a thread created yesterday

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The same day RDR2 released...

 

[Lunar15]

But we already know the characters get moved around. As long as the orientation is the same (meaning he has his right arm raised), there's the possibility that he can get shuffled in further updates

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That's true, but I think we could easily tell if the real artwork matched the blurry pose.

 

[Stoof]

To be fair, Ken's an echo so I doubt he's getting revealed alone and whoever he's revealed with will probably be a better immediate tell for the theory.

 

[Weiss]

I still don't get why they'd go to the trouble of making a fake background if

- One exists already.

- There would be no way to 100% reliably match the real background. If anything all it does is outright prove that the leak is false.

 

[Deleted member 17627]

Isabelle deconfirmed

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At least Isabelle is in the same series of the person her moveset is based on.

Incineroar is canonically lighter in weight than Charizard, who in turn is lighter in weight than Bowser. He most likely wouldn't be a superheavy.

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Huh, didn't know that. Still sort of feel like I would rather want a more unique playstyle that we haven't seen, especially for a newcomer. I mean Greninja was amazing because, well, he was a ninja, we didn't have that yet at the time.

 

[NotLiquid]

incineroar would be a super cool character i have no issues with him
it's just that they won't end with only one newcomer and one echo, that's like the only thing that people are against i think

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Right.

I think the Grinch leak is faker than Shadow the Hedgehog in Sonic Adventure 2. That doesn't mean I don't expect there to be at least one more character on top of the box theory.

 

[Stoof]

DP

 

[Alexhex]

And how exactly did it work in Smash 4 after that patch? Like I said I always get confused about the changes to DI/SDI/Whatever it's called, and I'm not sure if I was still playing Smash 4 at that point.

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Basically when you hold the control stick perpendicular to the direction you've been hit, it influences the angle your character flies away at. You still fly the same distance, but it can be used to escape combos avoid the blast zone if done right.

SDI is different and kind of mashing a direction and slightly moving the character out of the way, to get out of stuff like jab combos. I don't think this was in the e3 build

 

[Mugy]

I you guys don't believe Ryce, then you are tripping. MVCI was almost a 100% accuracy leak (including characters roster among other things). Guy its legit and probably the only leaker i could actually trust

 

[Hailinel]

To be fair, Ken's an echo so I doubt he's getting revealed alone and whoever he's revealed with will probably be a better immediate tell for the theory.

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The most mind-blowing thing of all would be for Ken, after all this Echo talk, to end up as an Isabelle-style semi-clone.

 

[Weiss]

To be fair, Ken's an echo so I doubt he's getting revealed alone and whoever he's revealed with will probably be a better immediate tell for the theory.

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Well, Daisy was revealed on her own. It's not impossible Ken will be as well.

But if Shadow is in then they'd be revealed together. 3rd Party Echoes.

 

[oreomunsta]

The same day RDR2 released...

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People on Reset play games? o_0

 

[Dark Cloud]

I have a hard time seeing Shadow in. If they made a spot on the box for Ryu I would've expect them to make a spot for Shadow too (next to Sonic).

 

[Stoof]

Well, Daisy was revealed on her own. It's not impossible Ken will be as well.

But if Shadow is in then they'd be revealed together. 3rd Party Echoes.

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True but I mean more in the sense of a whole direct. He won't be the only character shown and we'll see one or more characters in the same direct that would confirm/deny the leak before we even see the art most likely.

 

[Rotobit]

I still don't get why they'd go to the trouble of making a fake background if

- One exists already.

- There would be no way to 100% reliably match the real background. If anything all it does is outright prove that the leak is false.

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I think the fake leak argument is that the guy wouldn't have known the background already existed - the entire rumor thread didn't realize until part way into the second day, after all, due to its obscurity. If they did mock it up then they probably thought there was no way to disprove it until the final thing was shown, after which point the fake would already be debunked and they'd be laughing to the bank

it's still a lot of effort to go to for something that didn't need to be there at all, though

 

[ShinobiBk]

incineroar would be a super cool character i have no issues with him
it's just that they won't end with only one newcomer and one echo, that's like the only thing that people are against i think

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Not sure why people keep saying its either Ken & Incineroar or this Grinch leak. You can believe both are false.
That box bullshit was the dumbest thing brought up here I can't believe it gained any traction

 

[ResetGreyWolf]

Well, Daisy was revealed on her own.

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What

Daisy was revealed alongside literally everyone + Ridley + first gameplay footage of Inkling

 

[Pancracio17]

The most mind-blowing thing of all would be for Ken, after all this Echo talk, to end up as an Isabelle-style semi-clone.

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I could totally see it happening.

 

[Jraphics Horse]

Shoryuken is Ken's signature move. I am 90% confident he will be doing that in the mural, so I am certain the madness shall continue.

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Is Ryu's flying kick his signature move?

 

[TDLink]

I you guys don't believe Ryce, then you are tripping. MVCI was almost a 100% accuracy leak (including characters roster among other things). Guy its legit and probably the only leaker i could actually trust

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It's within the realm of possibility that Ryce believes what he has seen or heard is true (and I am sure he does), and even that his source believes what he has seen or heard is true -- but for it to ultimately be based on false information.

 

[Hailinel]

Is Ryu's flying kick his signature move?

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As the SFII series went on, they made Ken's specials more focused on the Shoryuken and Ryu's more focused around the Hadouken.

 

[1000% H]

The most mind-blowing thing of all would be for Ken, after all this Echo talk, to end up as an Isabelle-style semi-clone.

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Ken is a semi-clone so he gets his own trailer which bookends a direct with Incineroar on the other end.

*Direct complete / roster concluded

 

[Dark Cloud]

It's within the realm of possibility that Ryce believes what he has seen or heard is true (and I am sure he does), and even that his source believes what he has seen or heard is true -- but for it to ultimately be based on false information.

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He said he warned us for the upcoming few weeks. Dude sounds confident as hell in what he saw.

 

[Deleted member 2791]

I have a hard time seeing Shadow in. If they made a spot on the box for Ryu I would've expect them to make a spot for Shadow too (next to Sonic).

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I have a hard time not seeing Shadow In. He's like the easiest echo ever, in the same vein of Ken.

 

[Strittles]

I still don't get why they'd go to the trouble of making a fake background if

- One exists already.

- There would be no way to 100% reliably match the real background. If anything all it does is outright prove that the leak is false.

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Yeah this has been bothering me too. It's just so weird that one of the things that works against the leak is one of the most pointless parts of it

 

[ned_ballad]

I have a hard time seeing Shadow in. If they made a spot on the box for Ryu I would've expect them to make a spot for Shadow too (next to Sonic).

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I don't think the box design is set in stone or indicative of the final roster.

 

[Weiss]

What

Daisy was revealed alongside literally everyone + Ridley + first gameplay footage of Inkling

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I meant as far as revealing Echoes.

Though then again, Daisy was shown off as the debut of the concept along with Dark Pit and Lucina.

I think the fake leak argument is that the guy wouldn't have known the background already existed - the entire rumor thread didn't realize until part way into the second day, after all, due to its obscurity. If they did mock it up then they probably thought there was no way to disprove it until the final thing was shown, after which point the fake would already be debunked and they'd be laughing to the bank

it's still a lot of effort to go to for something that didn't need to be there at all, though

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Yeah that's what I mean. Why bother making it if there's no reason to?