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Stock Market Watch |OT| I've stocked up on market watches, what now?
- Thread starter Mr.Awesome
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After the dip late last week and the COVID-19 news over the weekend, this was not a huge surprise. I didn't expect COVID-19 to trigger the recession but the red days are piling up. Its a bit too soon to call it a full blown recession but clearly the era of monthly ATHs are over.
Its had this hilarious arc where its just wrapped back around to be Justin.TV again. Lmao.
US GDP growth was forecast as a meagre 0.6% FY in Feb. If this keeps up it might slow the economy more than we thought, even if the US is less reliant on foreign commerce that China and the EU.
I think we'll dip quite a bit this week. Dec 2008 2018 levels at least. People are expecting a downturn and something like this will trigger some pullbacks for people
Shanghai is already starting to rebound. I think the DOW will trail behind Shanghai by a couple of days. Both Xi and Trump are interested in keeping the bull run going because their authority hinges on it. If China stabilizes, it'll reassure American investors that their supply chains won't get disrupted.
I have cursory knowledge of the Chinese stock market. How much of the rebound is due to their government pumping in funds to prop it up? Have their factories resumed normal business? Aren't a lot of cities still on lockdown?Shanghai is already starting to rebound. I think the DOW will trail behind Shanghai by a couple of days. Both Xi and Trump are interested in keeping the bull run going because their authority hinges on it. If China stabilizes, it'll reassure American investors that their supply chains won't get disrupted.
I was. Was the same year my pension started , it was great as those early savings have grown a lot from the subsequent recovery
This is just fears covid19 will hit growth, which it will , but the US economy is going to remain pretty strong
We could be in for a one, two punch if Bernie is looking strong in November. WallStreet will freak the fuck out if Bernie wins.
The market was supposed to tank if Trump got elected. It's almost impossible to predict what the market will respond.
Absolutely, which is why I'm long. I do think people will brace for impact if Bernie wins and corporations could pullback because of regulations and tax worries. I'm not opposed to that result, I just think it's a potential reality. Long time and a lot can happen until then.
The market was also expecting rational and necessary interest rate hikes. Once Trump showed that he wrongly and dangerously considered the stock market to be the whole economy - and his entire economic strategy- well the Street got pretty busy. That will come home to roost before or after November. But roost it will.
The market didn't grow in spite of Trump's incompetence and graft - it has irrationally swollen because of it. And when it bursts, we will all be showered with the ordure.
in fact it's a simplification to say - but not necessarily wrong - that the markets are overperforming on the predicate of - "hey it could actually be a lot worse! We expected absolute insanity that hurt everyone! But we got a pass!"
meanwhile wages, property, healthcare and basic living standards are a ticking time bomb.
sadly this is a pretty normal GOP/DEM cycle - gop does absurdly damaging economic short term policy- boosting billionaires and ignoring fundamentals or chopping them. Boom turns to bust in first or second term and Dems are elected to fix it.
slow improvements and fixes mean Dems get blamed for not doing enough fast enough - or succeed to the point where prosperous Americans want a tax cut or a change.
Rinse, repeat.
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Pretty much.
No offense to bernie i like his plattform but i doubt he'll actually get anything radical done regarding wall st.
The market grew because the economy has been strong and corporate earning have largely been great. It has little to do with Trump. If anything, Trump has held the market back from being even higher, due to his trade wars and bluster.
They have been pumping credit and liquidity into the system trying to keep the system afloat during the quarantine period. Not sure if they'll extend these measures, but it's definitely a sign of softness in an already-soft Chinese economy.
Yup. With the exception of 2018 as it was a bit of a shit show with Trump and North Korea, other years especially 2019 was quite literally playing the stock market on easy mode.
Anecdotally, I finished 2018 at -1%, and finished 2019 with 102%. I know of many other people that had similar performance too.
I wouldn't be on Team Dec 2018 yet. It's possible but I see other levels first before going there. The market broke out of a couple year bear market in october last year (market basically peaked in 2017 and it took two years to get back over it), so I'm watching the break out level of sp500 3000 ish area first. If this doesn't hold then maybe dec 2018 is back on the table. Well closer to being on the table. I'm kind of looking sp500 3000, 2750, and then 2400.
I'm not rushing out to buy today though.
I'm not rushing out to buy today though.
Absolutely not. Trump had been pressuring the Federal Reserve to pull back on QT, and instead re-instate another round of not-QE in 2019. That's on top of easing environmental regulations and tax breaks.
For reference, the only reason why Shale Oil is surviving in this environment is because of ultra-cheap loans.
IMO, all of it is a pump. The factories have not really recovered, but investors don't care about the situation on the ground, only if the stocks are green or red. Xi knows this, Jerome Powell knows this. Trump knows this in his broken clock sort of way.
They tried that spin with Obama as well, and it was not effective
Bernie will be massively increasing taxes from current levels.
I mean, if you make more than 100 grand as a single person and your total health care costs per year are less than 5 grand a year, oh wait I did the math you'd still end up saving in that case.
Bernie can't just tax everyone more without a house and a senate that agree to some extent. I also don't think it's as bad as every makes it sound. However, if you're a multi-millionaire, your taxes will likely go up significantly. Those are largely the people that affect the market. Not people who are concerned about a $5,000 medical insurance savings.
No he won't. None of his major initiatives will pass lol
EVEN IF Bernie gets the house and Senate to flip. Senate moderate Dems will hold some of Bernie's initiatives back. Look at how Pete and Biden talk about Bernie. There are plenty of those type of Senators on the Dem side.
And that's a huge IF for the Senate to flip.
Right.
How are you going to convince the Testers and Manchins of the world to adopt some of his policies? I just don't see it.
Especially M4A.
My AMD puts are making $$$ today at least, and they expire at the end of the week, and my calls that expire in a month are not down nearly as badly as I thought they might be. So, tank this week, buy the dip, and pump it up to get in the money on the calls in a month time.
We got this!
We got this!
If Trump has taught us anything, you can just bypass Congress a lot of the time if you're determined enough.
Nah, the fundamentals are still pointing to things being overpriced.
With that said I max my 401k every year. I'd increase my investment rate when we clearly are oversold but I'm already maxed.
OP
OP
I was up over 300% last year. But I actively monitor on a day by day basis. I was also down 40% the year before though so yeah.
Well... He doesn't bypass Congress. He has a completely complicit Congress.
But the point is taken. We will see if in fact he can pass anything via EO or reconciliation.
Yeah I'm actually expecting a recession later this year. One quarter of severely depressed Chinese and Asian output has to make a dent some how.
Not saying to take it lightly or hope for one to occur , but if it's gonna happen, I hope it happens during the fall. Just in time for US elections.
Not on issues of budget or taxation. The Constitution is pretty clear about that
Bernie cant unilaterally raise taxes by himself. Also this has nothing to do with Bernie.
How do you figure he can bypass a GOP controlled Senate? Especially when many Dems won't even go for much of what he wants.
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