Saudi Arabia's Arab Spring: Crown Prince MBS wants tolerance and to end conservative brand (NYT)

Deleted member 8257 · Nov 24, 2017

Saudi Arabia's Arab Spring, at Last
The crown prince has big plans to bring back a level of tolerance to his society.

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — I never thought I'd live long enough to write this sentence: The most significant reform process underway anywhere in the Middle East today is in Saudi Arabia. Yes, you read that right. Though I came here at the start of Saudi winter, I found the country going through its own Arab Spring, Saudi style.

Unlike the other Arab Springs — all of which emerged bottom up and failed miserably, except in Tunisia — this one is led from the top down by the country's 32-year-old crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and, if it succeeds, it will not only change the character of Saudi Arabia but the tone and tenor of Islam across the globe. Only a fool would predict its success — but only a fool would not root for it.

On Corruption arrests

When all the data was ready, the public prosecutor, Saud al-Mojib, took action, M.B.S. said, explaining that each suspected billionaire or prince was arrested and given two choices: "We show them all the files that we have and as soon as they see those about 95 percent agree to a settlement," which means signing over cash or shares of their business to the Saudi state treasury.

"About 1 percent," he added, "are able to prove they are clean and their case is dropped right there. About 4 percent say they are not corrupt and with their lawyers want to go to court. Under Saudi law, the public prosecutor is independent. We cannot interfere with his job — the king can dismiss him, but he is driving the process … We have experts making sure no businesses are bankrupted in the process" — to avoid causing unemployment.

"How much money are they recovering?" I asked.

The public prosecutor says it could eventually "be around $100 billion in settlements," said M.B.S.

Yemen/Iran

He insisted that the Saudi-backed war in Yemen, which has been a humanitarian nightmare, was tilting in the direction of the pro-Saudi legitimate government there, which, he said is now in control of 85 percent of the country, but given the fact that pro-Iranian Houthi rebels, who hold the rest, launched a missile at Riyadh airport, anything less than 100 percent is still problematic.

His general view seemed to be that with the backing of the Trump administration — he praised President Trump as "the right person at the right time" — the Saudis and their Arab allies were slowly building a coalition to stand up to Iran. I am skeptical. The dysfunction and rivalries within the Sunni Arab world generally have prevented forming a unified front up to now, which is why Iran indirectly controls four Arab capitals today — Damascus, Sana, Baghdad and Beirut. That Iranian over-reach is one reason M.B.S. was scathing about Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's "supreme leader is the new Hitler of the Middle East," said M.B.S. "But we learned from Europe that appeasement doesn't work. We don't want the new Hitler in Iran to repeat what happened in Europe in the Middle East." What matters most, though, is what Saudi Arabia does at home to build its strength and economy.

But can M.B.S. and his team see this through? Again, I make no predictions. He has his flaws that he will have to control, insiders here tell me. They include relying on a very tight circle of advisers who don't always challenge him sufficiently, and a tendency to start too many things that don't get finished. There's a whole list. But guess what? Perfect is not on the menu here. Someone had to do this job — wrench Saudi Arabia into the 21st century — and M.B.S. stepped up. I, for one, am rooting for him to succeed in his reform efforts.

Extremism/Religious police

The first is to bring Saudi Islam back to its more open and modern orientation — whence it diverted in 1979. That is, back to what M.B.S. described to a recent global investment conference here as a "moderate, balanced Islam that is open to the world and to all religions and all traditions and peoples."

I know that year well. I started my career as a reporter in the Middle East in Beirut in 1979, and so much of the region that I have covered since was shaped by the three big events of that year: the takeover of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by Saudi puritanical extremists — who denounced the Saudi ruling family as corrupt, impious sellouts to Western values; the Iranian Islamic revolution; and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

These three events together freaked out the Saudi ruling family at the time, and prompted it to try to shore up its legitimacy by allowing its Wahhabi clerics to impose a much more austere Islam on the society and by launching a worldwide competition with Iran's ayatollahs over who could export more fundamentalist Islam. It didn't help that the U.S. tried to leverage this trend by using Islamist fighters against Russia in Afghanistan. In all, it pushed Islam globally way to the right and helped nurture 9/11.

A lawyer by training, who rose up in his family's education-social welfare foundation, M.B.S. is on a mission to bring Saudi Islam back to the center. He has not only curbed the authority of the once feared Saudi religious police to berate a woman for not covering every inch of her skin, he has also let women drive. And unlike any Saudi leader before him, he has taken the hard-liners on ideologically. As one U.S.-educated 28-year-old Saudi woman told me: M.B.S. "uses a different language. He says, 'We are going to destroy extremism.' He's not sugar-coating. That is reassuring to me that the change is real."

Now they have a young leader who is driving religious and economic reform, who talks the language of high tech, and whose biggest sin may be that he wants to go too fast. Most ministers are now in their 40s — and not 60s. And with the suffocating hand of a puritanical Islam being lifted, it's giving them a chance to think afresh about their country and their identity as Saudis.

"We need to restore our culture to what it was before the [Islamic] radical culture took over," a Saudi woman friend who works with an N.G.O. said to me. "`We have 13 regions in this country, and they each have a different cuisine. But nobody knows that. Did you know that? But I never saw one Saudi dish go global. It is time for us to embrace who we are and who we were."

Moderate Islam

Indeed, M.B.S. instructed me: "Do not write that we are 'reinterpreting' Islam — we are 'restoring' Islam to its origins — and our biggest tools are the Prophet's practices and [daily life in] Saudi Arabia before 1979." At the time of the Prophet Muhammad, he argued, there were musical theaters, there was mixing between men and women, there was respect for Christians and Jews in Arabia. "The first commercial judge in Medina was a woman!" So if the Prophet embraced all of this, M.B.S. asked, "Do you mean the Prophet was not a Muslim?"

Then one of his ministers got out his cellphone and shared with me pictures and YouTube videos of Saudi Arabia in the 1950s — women without heads covered, wearing skirts and walking with men in public, as well as concerts and cinemas. It was still a traditional and modest place, but not one where fun had been outlawed, which is what happened after 1979.

If this virus of an antipluralistic, misogynistic Islam that came out of Saudi Arabia in 1979 can be reversed by Saudi Arabia, it would drive moderation across the Muslim world and surely be welcomed here where 65 percent of the population is under 30.

One middle-age Saudi banker said to me: "My generation was held hostage by 1979. I know now that my kids will not be hostages." Added a 28-year-old Saudi woman social entrepreneur: "Ten years ago when we talked about music in Riyadh it meant buying a CD — now it is about the concert next month and what ticket are you buying and which of your friends will go with you."

Girls education reform

The Saudi education minister chimed in that among a broad set of education reforms, he's redoing and digitizing all textbooks, sending 1,700 Saudi teachers each year to world-class schools in places like Finland to upgrade their skills, announcing that for the first time Saudi girls will have physical education classes in public schools and this year adding an hour to the Saudi school day for kids to explore their passions in science and social issues, under a teacher's supervision, with their own projects.

So many of these reforms were so long overdue it's ridiculous. Better late than never, though.

These are a few excerpts but do read the whole thing. It's quite fascinating and unlike anything we've seen/heard coming out of KSA since...well, 1979. It seems that MBS wants to undo the damage done that year through various reforms. As mentioned in the article, before '79 there were movie theaters and stuff in the kingdom. But after the Siege of Grand Mosque, the Kingdom acquiesced to the demands of the puritanical terrorists and we've been paying the price ever since. He even mentions that all the Islamic texts on Hadiths will be revised to go through a less conservative approach.

There's lot of questionable actions from MBS too, such as the stupid war in Yemen and his words on Iran's leaders do not bode well for the region. But, MBS is trying to reform his country from top down. My biggest fear? Dude has a massive bullseye on his back now. The reason Siege happened in the first place in '79 is because the puritans feared that the Kingdom was becoming too liberal and westernized in the first place. Now if MBS wants to do away with Burqas, gender segregation, etc, History may repeat itself but I hope it doesn't. We can't have KSA going back into stone age again.

What do you guys think?

Kolx · Nov 24, 2017

He's moving very fast. Like REALLY fast with these changes. He did change most of the upper leadership in the country so most of the big heads that can say no to him are gone which I guess can help make sure nobody is going to stab you in the back.

One of thing I miss about the old forum is that they were people willing to discuss international news instead of just focusing on the US\West side. Etceteraseems really dead incomparison to gaf before collapsing.

Deleted member 8579 · Nov 24, 2017

Sounds pretty good but I'm no expert on the matters and can only take it at face value. Not sure of the view on Iran, not familiar with that. It does sound like a good path and one the middle east and the world needs which would help society mesh better.

Thisman · Nov 24, 2017

I want to know what the author is smoking because MBS is the worst thing to happen to the ME

NotGreatBob · Nov 24, 2017

I'm all for secularization of a fundamentalist nation, but forced secularization by an autocratic ruler seems very likely to not end well.

gutter_trash · Nov 24, 2017

I will only believe if they crack down on Wahhabi Salafists

Akira86 · Nov 24, 2017

I've heard such mixed nuts on this guy, who knows what to believe. One says he's a maverick prince who wants to bring SA into the 22nd century today. Another says he's a sadistic manipulator who stages secret wars, portrays himself as a sunny guy in the media, and has a kill list the size of a phone book already...and is just waiting to be made king.

rstzkpf · Nov 24, 2017

I think he realizes that the respect Saudi Arabia gets is literally only because of oil and if the country doesn't change before that oil runs out there will be trouble for them.

T'Challa Shakur · Nov 24, 2017

Kolx said:
He's moving very fast. Like REALLY fast with these changes. He did change most of the upper leadership in the country so most of the big heads that can say no to him are gone which I guess can help make sure nobody is going to stab you in the back.

One of thing I miss about the old forum is that they were people willing to discuss international news instead of just focusing on the US\West side. Etceteraseems really dead incomparison to gaf before collapsing.

Its a young fourm. I wouldn't be surprised if we just dont have enough people from across the pond to give that perspective yet.

Kolx · Nov 24, 2017

Akira86 said:
I've heard such mixed nuts on this guy, who knows what to believe. One says he's a maverick prince who wants to bring SA into the 22nd century today. Another says he's a sadistic manipulator who stages secret wars, portrays himself as a sunny guy in the media, and has a kill list the size of a phone book already...and is just waiting to be made king.

He's already king tho. The king (his father) is letting him make whatever he likes and him ascending to the throne is just a matter of time.

Ogami Itto · Nov 24, 2017

Praises Trump and compares Iran to Nazi Germany? No thanks.

Sibylus · Nov 24, 2017

I'll believe it when I see it. The west has been burnishing the House of Saud's corrupt, totalitarian brand for the better part of a century.

Akira86 · Nov 24, 2017

Kolx said:
He's already king tho. The king (his father) is letting him make whatever he likes and him ascending to the throne is just a matter of time.

i mean 'officially' officially, which i guess happens soonish? I know he was moved up in succession to the crown prince spot which makes him basically in charge in place of his elderly father.

Ogami Itto said:
Praises Trump and compares Iran to Nazi Germany? No thanks.

yep, that whole deal will kick off for real. 300 billion dollars in US weapons to SA, and Iran is probably going to reach out to Russia or go back to making nukes.

Reynolds Woodcock · Nov 24, 2017

I wonder how the millions of starving Yemeni people feel about him.

DemonSwordsman · Nov 24, 2017

This guy is a nut job and loose cannon. Being propped up by Israel and the west. Dude has destroyed Yemen and murdered thousands of civilians. Is destabilizing the whole region with Qatar and Lebanon.

Byakuya769 · Nov 24, 2017

Thomas Friedman article?

dramazen · Nov 24, 2017

They discussed this on NPR last week. The general assessment seems to be that the oil can't flow forever and the past few years of bad prices is kind of shocking SA into realizing that the opulence can't last. Nobody wants to be the next Venezuela I suppose.

Kolx said:
One of thing I miss about the old forum is that they were people willing to discuss international news instead of just focusing on the US\West side. Etceteraseems really dead incomparison to gaf before collapsing.

There's been threads about Egypt, Zimbabwe, and Germany in the past week

Chairman Yang · Nov 24, 2017

I think I agree with this part of the article: "Only a fool would predict its success — but only a fool would not root for it."

Saudi Arabia has basically ruined much of mainstream Sunni Islam and made it a force for fanaticism and violence around the globe. Whatever MBS's personal failings, I hope he can reverse that, not just in Arabia but across the whole Sunni world.

Thisman · Nov 24, 2017

Israeli support against Lebanon
100,000s of starving disease ridden Yemenis
Wanting a World War with Iran
Partnering with Trump

I'll gladly take the old Saudi Arabia which meddled a lot less outside and could be slowly changed from the inside rather than this.

Chairman Yang · Nov 24, 2017

Ogami Itto said:
Praises Trump and compares Iran to Nazi Germany? No thanks.

I'm hoping this is just lip service until he can push a more sane, less evil, and less blatantly anti-Shia agenda. It'd be nice for Yemeni kids to stop being starved to death because of Saudi actions and American complicity. But we'll see.

Rocket Man · Nov 24, 2017

This seems really hard to believe. So far he's proven to be a reckless warmonger.

Edit: Reading this more and it's making me laugh. Since when does NYT ball wash the Saudis?

BlastProcessing · Nov 24, 2017

Wonder how much MBS paid for this puff piece?

Deleted member 8257 · Nov 24, 2017

Ogami Itto said:
Praises Trump and compares Iran to Nazi Germany? No thanks.

He's being strategic. I dont blame them for using a fool like Trump to his country's advantage. Wouldn't you? All you have to do is give him a lavish ceremony and put him in nice hotels.

Deleted member 2625 · Nov 24, 2017

wait, is this Friedman? Imma look now but this feels like Friedman

edit - yeah ok, so besides his usual starry-eyed manner, this feel really strange to me in several spots. it's so deferential and cloying, so desperate to spin this fantabulous tale... I'm not sure what to make of this yet. I want to believe a lot of it but yeeeesh he's laying on thick even for him

Sibylus · Nov 24, 2017

Nerfgun said:
wait, is this Friedman? Imma look now but this feels like Friedman

Yes, it is.

wonzo · Nov 24, 2017

twitter thread

spam musubi · Nov 24, 2017

RustyNails said:
He's being strategic. I dont blame them for using a fool like Trump to his country's advantage. Wouldn't you? All you have to do is give him a lavish ceremony and put him in nice hotels.

What about any of the other issues though?

Thisman said:
Israeli support against Lebanon
100,000s of starving disease ridden Yemenis
Wanting a World War with Iran
Partnering with Trump

I'll gladly take the old Saudi Arabia which meddled a lot less outside and could be slowly changed from the inside rather than this.

This seems like a bit of a puff piece showing only his good side.

wonzo said:
twitter thread

Yeah, this thread really puts things in perspective. The author seemingly cannot be trusted in this area.

Ebullientprism · Nov 24, 2017

wonzo said:
twitter thread

This really should be in the OP. The article is absolutely disgusting. As is ignoring a man made mass famine in Yemen because of this guy.

It feels like the US needs these fluff pieces periodically so that they can turn a blind eye to the fact that they have been partnered with this monstrous regime for a while now.

Rocket Man · Nov 24, 2017

wonzo said:
twitter thread

Holy shit

Saves me from a load of research. What a garbage tier article, just like MBS, who is a giant piece of shit too.

Ogami Itto · Nov 24, 2017

You know shit is bad when it makes you wish Saddam was still around, and I'm originally from Iraq. The region does not need a fucking world war.

gutter_trash · Nov 24, 2017

so the main exporter of Wahhabi extremism wants to enact secularism?

I don't believe it

Not · Nov 24, 2017

Do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it

Please, PLEASE let this not be a front for a fascist dictatorship tho or whatever. That'd be cool

EDIT: Ah

Kas' · Nov 24, 2017

I read this last night, and while I found Friedman's unbridled enthusiasm a bit creepy, I hope Bin Salman brings the reforms he has promised. There is no doubt he is in full control of Saudi Arabia and he seems like an progressive and educated man. I find the quotes on Iran troubling though but that's a geopolitical issue that will not get solved anytime soon, anyway.

Deleted member 8702 · Nov 24, 2017

The next six months are going to be critical for Saudi Arabia.

Ogodei · Nov 24, 2017

If anything it's likely to backfire if the average Saudi doesn't buy into it. A too-secular autocratic king was how the Iranian Revolution happened in 1979. Something like the Iranian Revolution in Saudia would be an absolute disaster.

The bottom-up revolutions failed, but the benefit to such revolutions is that you know you've got popular consent, as opposed to heavy-handed top-down reforms from an unelected government (different than heavy-handed top-down reforms from an elected government because again, you know there's at least some popular consent there).

Shoot · Nov 24, 2017

gutter_trash said:
I will only believe if they crack down on Wahhabi Salafists

This is the only thing that I really care about. I have major doubts that the crown prince will make any changes in that area, especially since the west has never called them out on it. I get the sense that he just wants to appease the west and he can easily do that while supporting global terrorism.

Abstrusity · Nov 24, 2017

Not said:
Do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it

Please, PLEASE let this not be a front for a fascist dictatorship tho or whatever. That'd be cool

EDIT: Ah

Twisted game needs to be reset, start over from scratch, etc.

Fasc gonna fasc. If he does what he says he's going to do and keeps it going, then maybe it won't be so bad outside the ME, but I doubt it, especially after those' totally not assassinations' over the last couple months.

The best type of government is autocratic in worthy hands, and MBS doesn't strike me as worthy. I'll make and eat a MAGA hat if I'm wrong.

AuthenticM · Nov 24, 2017

If this man succeeds, he will be revered by history as one of the great ones.

What's the expression again that Dan Carlin uses to describe the people who, alone, brought a lot of change? I'm talking about that.

Mr_Black · Nov 24, 2017

Progress towards social reform is always better than tightening the fist. It's not about Saudi Arabia in 5 or 10 years, but 50 and 100+. With these new trends, who knows what the place will look like in that amount of time.

Probably better than every other place we intervened in militarily.

Not · Nov 24, 2017

Abstrusity said:
The best type of government is autocratic in worthy hands

Expect a little pushback on this idea in your coming lifespan

Luchashaq · Nov 24, 2017

The NYT writes this same puff piece about Saudi leadership every 5 years.

This is the same outlet who helped convince people Iraq is who should pay for 9/11.

Taking this as anything but propaganda is lazy or insane.

grassblade · Nov 24, 2017

I see that NYT is straight up publishing Saudi propaganda...

It's kinda hilarious how many times this kind of piece gets written for major publications....

gutter_trash · Nov 24, 2017

but this whole thing of calling Iran the next Hitler. c'mon .

so he wants to secularize at home on one hand but he wants to go super-hard line sectarian against his neighbors.

granted that Iran aren't trustworthy but neither is Saudi Arabia. The main reason Iran gets the worse wrap is because USA and Israel have sided with Saudi Arabia. But it's all still a sectarian wedge.

It's too incoherent

Bionicman · Nov 24, 2017

He will always be the butcher of Yemen, a simpleton idiot whose trigger happy finger destroyed the poorest Arab country all because he wanted to prove that he's something he'll never be, a capable political and military leader.

His policies and anti Shia rhetoric airing 24/7 on his media made him lose influence in all Shia Arab lands.

He speaks of reforms yet he sends his army to repress the Bahraini people and kill Shias in the eastern KSA.

This is the same piece of shit who approved the beheading of a peaceful Shia political activist on trump up terror charges in response to him losing his strongman in Syria Zahran Alloush.

Fuck him and all he stands for, he will always try to be Qassem Suleimani's equal but he will never as so much as reach his boots. All that money and hardwarwe and his paper tiger army can't beat barefooted farmers in Yemen.

Jimbobsmells · Nov 24, 2017

Ogami Itto said:
Praises Trump and compares Iran to Nazi Germany? No thanks.

+1

Personae · Nov 24, 2017

This is like a PR statement. If you read what's happening in SA on basis of Islam, you just kid yourself. Also there is no meaning to talk about reforms or justice. Since there is no constitution to provide justice and no Islam other then rulers' to reform. They are making excuses for whatever they want to do. Their life style already have very contradictory elements in itself. For example: Even if they choose a radical way of Islam, they live in luxury and in negligence of some etique reflections of their way. Sorry maybe not a good concrete example. English isn't my maternal language and I had a lot of things to say, actually. I must say I'm talking about "governers" not people. Please don't assume this events in SA as it is in this PR. It would be too naive. Maybe evil even.
Ps: Spring? Oh I guess when you read spring has come then spring really come.

gutter_trash · Nov 24, 2017

the only country that had a successful Arab Spring was Tunisia, all the others were total fail

sphagnum · Nov 24, 2017

I recognized that Friedman stench as soon as I started reading it. Kind of colors my perception of the validity of the editorial!

Sibylus · Nov 24, 2017

Abstrusity said:
The best type of government is autocratic in worthy hands

:thinking:

Air · Nov 24, 2017

That's awesome.

Saudi Arabia's Arab Spring: Crown Prince MBS wants tolerance and to end conservative brand (NYT)

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