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Russia has begun a full-scale invasion in Ukraine [READ STAFF POSTS]

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convo

convo

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Oct 25, 2017
7,518
I remember people being very confused why Bakhmut had such a huge focus for the russians and they haven't stopped throwing bodies at it. Has it no strategic value at all or is Wagner at it to seem like they are making things happen somewhere?
 
Temascos

Temascos

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,615
Steeven said:

View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599039201143443456
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Good to hear reinforcements have arrived in the area, hopefully it'll help.

convo said:
I remember people being very confused why Bakhmut had such a huge focus for the russians and they haven't stopped throwing bodies at it. Has it no strategic value at all or is Wagner at it to seem like they are making things happen somewhere?
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As I understand it, it's largely a political scoring point for taking the whole Oblast which Putin needs. There is some value obviously in taking the region and it'll allow a push forward in other spots, but it's been such a meatgrinder that should they even achieve that, they won't be able to keep up the momentum in other areas or hold it in the long term.
 
Everyday Math

Everyday Math

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,906

View: https://twitter.com/annamyroniuk/status/1599051370795241472?s=61&t=PnbfgXvHiQQs0pvYQPYQCw

View: https://twitter.com/annamyroniuk/status/1599052084275396608?s=61&t=PnbfgXvHiQQs0pvYQPYQCw

View: https://twitter.com/annamyroniuk/status/1599052590120960001?s=61&t=PnbfgXvHiQQs0pvYQPYQCw
How is this guy still in charge?
This time, however, military intelligence seems to be paying attention to the allegations.

"An official internal investigation is ongoing regarding some of the issues raised in your request," Mykola Krasniy, press secretary of the military intelligence, told the Kyiv Independent on Nov. 18.

According to Krasniy, the investigation was launched on Nov. 14 following the Kyiv Independent's request for comment for this article. He was unable to explain why there was no reaction to the allegations in the August story.
——
Commanders of the army-led wing of the Legion also enjoy impunity despite endless complaints from personnel. Among them is lieutenant colonel Bohdan, commander of the 3rd Battalion. Legionnaires complain about his behavior at his previous posting, as commander of the 1st Battalion.

"He's very well-connected, which is why he's still in the Legion," a soldier doing administrative work in the Legion said.

The battalion's officers and privates filed petitions to the Armed Forces' high command, reports to the parliament, and letters to the embassies accusing Bohdan of behaving erratically and mismanaging the unit.

"I have never seen in my life worse leadership. Please, for the love of God, replace him with anyone before good people get hurt or die," one of the soldiers' testimonies reads.

"Several hundred have left the Legion, not because of fear but because of frustration with the leadership abilities," reads the report of another soldier concerning Bohdan.

Bohdan's subordinates had been calling for his removal and investigation into him for months before he was transferred to head the 3rd Battalion, another formation within the army-run part of the International Legion, in late May.

Some soldiers consider it a promotion and are frustrated he did not face justice. Others say he has changed for the better in the new unit and is now a decent commander, although they think he should be held accountable for his past misdeeds.
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"For seven months soldiers here have been fighting on two fronts, one is Russia's army, and another one is corruption. The only reason why Ukraine is winning is that Russia is rotten in corruption even more than Ukraine is," one legionnaire told the Kyiv Independent.

The soldiers call upon authorities to reform the Legion. They are afraid that instead, authorities could just shut it down as an easier solution to end the complaints.

"We do not want the Legion to be closed, but to be reformed by NATO officers able to do so. Getting rid of the Legion will be a loss of opportunity for Ukraine. It has incredible potential, but the leadership must be changed," the soldier went on.

"There is no trust in the officer structure. And there's no accountability. They don't have to answer to people, there's no checks and balances," another legionnaire said.
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I would recommend reading the entire thing.
 
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SFLUFAN

SFLUFAN

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,491
Alexandria, VA
ISW analysis for 02 December 2022:

Institute for the Study of War

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the negotiating table. Russian President Vladimir Putin held an
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the negotiating table. Russian President Vladimir Putin held an hour-long telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on December 2 in which Putin falsely stated that Western financial and military aid to Ukraine creates a situation in which the Ukrainian government outright rejects talks between Moscow and Kyiv and called upon Scholz to reconsider Germany's approach regarding developments in Ukraine.[1] Scholz stated that any diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine must include the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.[2] The Putin-Scholz call corresponded with a diplomatic overture from US President Joe Biden on December 1 in which Biden stated that he is prepared to speak with Putin if the Russian president is looking for a way to end the war, although Biden acknowledged that he has no immediate plans to do so.[3]

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Biden's comments on December 2 stating that Biden seems to be demanding the removal of Russian forces from Ukraine as a precondition for negotiations and said that the "special military operation" would continue.[4] Peskov added that America's reluctance to recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories significantly complicates the search for common ground in possible negotiations.[5]

Putin's and Peskov's statements regarding negotiations follow Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's December 1 comments in the context of a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) repeating precisely the same demand the Kremlin had made of the US and NATO before the February 24 invasion. Lavrov said that Russian officials will be ready to talk with Western officials if the West shows its willingness to discuss the documents Russian officials proposed in December of 2021.[6] The Russian Foreign Ministry published a draft of its "security guarantees" demands of the US and NATO on December 17, 2021, which called for an expansive list of concessions on NATO and Western military actions in Europe, including, as ISW noted at the time, "a moratorium on NATO expansion, a revocation of the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit Declaration that Ukraine and Georgia are eligible to become NATO members, a moratorium on establishing military bases on the territory of former Soviet and current non-NATO states, not deploying strike weapons near Russia, and rolling back NATO to its 1997 posture when the Russia–NATO Founding Act was signed."[7] The Russian Foreign Ministry had issued a statement on February 17 threatening to take "military-technical measures" in response to the refusals by the US and NATO to negotiate on this basis—those military technical measures were the "special military operation" that began a week later.

ISW has previously assessed that Vladimir Putin's rhetoric indicates that he is not interested in negotiating seriously with Ukraine and retains maximalist objectives for the war.[8] It is likely that Putin, Lavrov, and Peskov made these statements regarding negotiations to create a perception among Western officials that Russia needs to be lured to negotiate. The Kremlin likely intends to create a dynamic in which Western officials offer Russia preemptive concessions in hopes of convincing Russia to enter negotiations without requiring significant preliminary concessions of Russia in return. Putin's, Lavrov's, and Peskov's statements highlight what some of those desired preemptive concessions may be: decreased Western financial and military aid to Ukraine, recognition of Russia's illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, and restrictions on NATO and Western military actions in Europe. The Kremlin has also kept its language about the subject of negotiations vague, likely in order to convince Western officials to begin negotiation processes without a clear definition of whether negotiations are in pursuit of a ceasefire, a peace process, or a final peace agreement.

Russia would benefit from a temporary agreement with Ukraine and Western countries that creates a pause in hostilities that allows Russia to strengthen the Russian Armed Forces for future military operations in pursuit of maximalist goals in Ukraine.[9] Putin has shown little interest in such a ceasefire, however, and the Kremlin continues to make demands that are tantamount to full Western surrender, suggesting that Putin remains focused on pursuing military victory.

Western leaders rebuffed the Kremlin's efforts and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron in a joint press conference on December 1 reiterated their commitment to support Ukraine in its war against Russia.[10] Biden's and Macron's joint show of support for Ukraine and Scholz's insistence on the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine indicate that France, Germany, and the US are not prepared to offer Russia significant preemptive concessions at this time. Biden added that "the idea that Putin is ever going to defeat Ukraine is beyond comprehension."[11]

Russia may be trying to use its coordinated missile-strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure and the associated humanitarian situation in Ukraine to add pressure on Western officials to offer preemptive concessions. Putin falsely stated in his call with Scholz that Russia has been left with no choice but to conduct missile strikes on targets in Ukrainian territory.[12] Russia may be relying on causing undue human suffering, possibly to generate another wave of refugees, to pressure Western officials to offer preemptive concessions because the Russian military has been unable to achieve strategic success.

Russia still poses a threat to the Ukrainian energy grid and civilian population despite Ukraine air defense forces' high rates of shooting down Russian missiles and drones at the current level of Ukrainian air defense capabilities. Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Chief Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov stated that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 72% of 239 Russian cruise missiles and 80% of 80 Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones launched throughout November.[13] Ukrainian Air Force Command Spokesperson Yuriy Ignat also noted that Ukrainian and Western-provided air defense systems have been "exhausting" Russian missile stockpiles and forcing the Russians to compensate for dwindling high-precision missiles by using inert Kh-55 designed solely to carry nuclear warheads as decoys.[14] Ignat, however, stated that the use of Kh-55 missiles alongside other missiles and drones is also wearing down Ukrainian air defenses. The small percentage of Russian strikes getting through Ukraine's air defenses are nevertheless having significant effects on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stating that recent strikes had left six million Ukrainians without power ahead of winter.[15]

Russia will likely continue to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure at least as long as enough Russian weapons can get through to achieve effects. The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that Russia's Destruction of Critically Important Targets (SODCIT) strategy is not as effective as it would have been during the earlier stages of the war, given that Ukrainians have successfully mobilized society.[16] ISW continues to assess that Russian strikes on critical infrastructure are unlikely to break Ukrainian will.

Additional Western-provided air defense systems are prompting the Russian pro-war community to question the long-term sustainability of the Russian missile campaign. Several prominent Russian milbloggers noted that the "build-up" of Western air defense systems in Ukraine is complicating Russia's ability to conduct missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and demanded that the Kremlin speed up its missile campaign.[17] A milblogger even reiterated Western assessments that current Russian missile strikes will have little effect on the frontlines unless "Russians drop their foolishness" and finish the campaign soon.[18] ISW previously reported on similar milblogger concerns over US-provided HIMARS systems, which have allowed Ukrainian forces to conduct successful interdiction campaigns.[19] Such panic among Russian milbloggers highlights the vulnerability of the Russian missile campaign if the West continues to enhance Ukraine's air- and missile-defense capabilities.

Russia is setting conditions to negotiate the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in return for a Ukrainian guarantee of the continued flow of gas to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline, but Russia would likely violate any such agreement and blame Ukraine for not upholding it. Russian nuclear energy agency Rosatom head Alexei Likhachev stated that international negotiations to establish a safety and security zone around the ZNPP in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast continue, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi stated that he hopes that the IAEA, Russia, and Ukraine will reach an agreement by the end of the year – now less than 30 days away.[20] Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on December 2, citing its sources within the Kremlin, that Russia is preparing to withdraw from the ZNPP without withdrawing from the area of Zaporizhia Oblast that surrounds the plant but did not specify whether the withdrawal would only apply to military units or would include occupation administrators.[21] Such an agreement would likely at least include military personnel and equipment.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 1 that Russia is pulling forces and occupation authorities from various parts of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 2 that there are only 500 Russian military personnel at the ZNPP and that withdrawing Russian personnel-planted 300 mines in the industrial zone of Enerhodar.[22] Meduza reported that the Kremlin expects that Ukraine would guarantee the uninterrupted pumping of gas through the Druzhba pipeline, which will become Russia's main method of transporting gas to Europe on December 5 when the European Union's embargo against water-transported Russian gas comes into effect.[23] However, as ISW has previously reported, Russia and its proxies have a long history of violating peace deals brokered with Ukraine and other states, then subsequently blaming the other party and leveraging the blame to fail to uphold Russia's own obligations.[24]

Demilitarizing the ZNPP without a withdrawal of Russian forces from broader western Zaporizhia Oblast would not eliminate or diminish the ongoing threat to the ZNPP. Even if Russia did withdraw both its forces and occupation administration from Enerhodar, Russian forces would still control the surrounding area and would retain the ability to strike all the areas they are currently able to strike, including the ZNPP itself. Rather, so long as the military situation remains unchanged in southern Ukraine, Russia would most likely accuse Ukrainian forces of violating the terms of their agreement and use such accusations to justify a remilitarization of the ZNPP and set longer-term information conditions to falsely undermine Ukraine's ability to safely operate the ZNPP and commit to any future ceasefire or peace agreements.

Key Takeaways
  • Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel obliged to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the table.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated as the basis for negotiations precisely the same demands that the Russian Foreign Ministry had made before the February 24 invasion, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitrii Peskov added the further demand that the West recognize Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory.
  • Russian forces still pose a threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite the success of Ukrainian air defenses.
  • Additional Western air defense systems are prompting the Russian pro-war community to question the Russian air campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
  • Russian officials are setting conditions to negotiate the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), an agreement upon which Russia would likely renege and that would not eliminate or diminish the ongoing threat to the ZNPP.
  • Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna.
  • Russian forces continued to make minimal advances in the Bakhmut area and conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area.
  • Russian forces may be struggling to properly allocate and deploy forces in rear areas in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.
  • Poor logistics, unruly mobilized personnel, and domestic protests continue to prevent the Kremlin from achieving the goals of partial mobilization.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to attempt to mask military development projects in occupied territories for no obvious reason.
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DraftUkraineCOTDecember02,2022.png
 
Buckle

Buckle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
41,392
Its really surprising how badly the foreign legion seems to be vetted.

Not the first time we've heard about some pretty shady characters there.
 
Ostron

Ostron

Member
Mar 23, 2019
1,973
Everyday Math said:

View: https://twitter.com/annamyroniuk/status/1599051370795241472?s=61&t=PnbfgXvHiQQs0pvYQPYQCw

View: https://twitter.com/annamyroniuk/status/1599052084275396608?s=61&t=PnbfgXvHiQQs0pvYQPYQCw

View: https://twitter.com/annamyroniuk/status/1599052590120960001?s=61&t=PnbfgXvHiQQs0pvYQPYQCw
How is this guy still in charge?

I would recommend reading the entire thing.
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Such a sad thing to read when you consider what these volunteers put on the line to come there in the first place. The lindibeige interview I posted a while back the soldier went so far as to call the incompetence on display from Ukrainian leadership of the legion to potentially be intentional sabotage rather than corruption. Those that do stick around under these circumstances are made of stern stuff. It was incredible to hear an account of how the legion narrowly survived getting wiped out in early missile strikes in western Ukraine when they were all bunched up waiting to be properly organised.
 
Xando

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,641
convo said:
I remember people being very confused why Bakhmut had such a huge focus for the russians and they haven't stopped throwing bodies at it. Has it no strategic value at all or is Wagner at it to seem like they are making things happen somewhere?
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There were some rumors a few months ago that Wagner had signed a contract that will gift them a huge payout if they take bakhmut but nothing has been confirmed afaik.
 
Mentalist

Mentalist

Member
Mar 14, 2019
18,249
convo said:
I remember people being very confused why Bakhmut had such a huge focus for the russians and they haven't stopped throwing bodies at it. Has it no strategic value at all or is Wagner at it to seem like they are making things happen somewhere?
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It's the lynchpin of UAF's defence in central Donbas. Along the M-03 there's no other major settlements until you hit Slov'yans'k, and that would allow thewm to outflank Soledar and Sivers'k
There's a chain of cities in the agglomeration Kramators'k- Konstantynivka-Druzhkivka, but getting SW of bakhmut with a breakthrough also means UAF has to abandon the Contact Line frotifications on the edges of Horlivka, which gives the orcs a lot of room to maneuver
 
BringBackSonics

BringBackSonics

Member
Oct 27, 2017
45,630
Seattle
kmfdmpig

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,497
NetMapel said:

View: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1599111450579988480

I feel like I need some further elaboration on what Macron is saying. Since it doesn't make a lot of sense to me because how does a new security guarantee work for a country that broke previous security guarantees??? Is Macron full of hopium?
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If the guarantee is something that is obvious anyway, such as "none of the signatories will attack Russia unless attacked first" then I have no issues with that. It's meaningless as no one is planning to do that anyway. If that's the face saving Putler needs to withdraw, return kidnapped children, provide security guarantees, and pay reparations to Ukraine it seems worthwhile.
 
cyrribrae

cyrribrae

Chicken Chaser
Member
Jan 21, 2019
12,723
kmfdmpig said:
If the guarantee is something that is obvious anyway, such as "none of the signatories will attack Russia unless attacked first" then I have no issues with that. It's meaningless as no one is planning to do that anyway. If that's the face saving Putler needs to withdraw, return kidnapped children, provide security guarantees, and pay reparations to Ukraine it seems worthwhile.
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Mm. Yea that kinda makes sense. Or like NATO won't put bases or missiles on Ukrainian soil, which would be a big "win" that means absolutely nothing (if it doesn't prevent NATO troops from being in Ukrainian bases and doing training and such).
 
kmfdmpig

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,497
cyrribrae said:
Mm. Yea that kinda makes sense. Or like NATO won't put bases or missiles on Ukrainian soil, which would be a big "win" that means absolutely nothing (if it doesn't prevent NATO troops from being in Ukrainian bases and doing training and such).
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Agreed. If the guarantee is any limitation on Ukraine post war, such as can't join the EU, can't join NATO then that should be a non-starter.
 
NetMapel

NetMapel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,514
kmfdmpig said:
If the guarantee is something that is obvious anyway, such as "none of the signatories will attack Russia unless attacked first" then I have no issues with that. It's meaningless as no one is planning to do that anyway. If that's the face saving Putler needs to withdraw, return kidnapped children, provide security guarantees, and pay reparations to Ukraine it seems worthwhile.
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Yeah if the "security guarantee" is basically we won't attack you unless you attack first. Get out of the entirety of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, I think I'd take it as well. Then chose countries can join NATO in the future and be part of a real security guarantee. Ideally I'd like the return the stolen Ukrainians, items and pay for your war crimes as well. But ultimately, how does any contract or treaty work with a country that has broken them before to such extend?
 
Zip

Zip

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,042
Macron's negotiation style seems like exactly the sort of softness that Putin has been taking advantage of, and thinks he can continue doing. Unless Macron expanded on what he meant, I'd frown on it only for being the sort of thing that would give Putin hope that he can bluff his way out of this with a gain still.
 
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cyrribrae

cyrribrae

Chicken Chaser
Member
Jan 21, 2019
12,723
Or.... maybe Macron is saying he's going to offer a security guarantee to Russia in the sense that if Ukraine starts marching on Moscow after soundly defeating the Russian army, France will promise to stop them (or at least very sternly request them not to continue).
 
GrantDaNasty

GrantDaNasty

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,090
Russia has no right to state whether or not Ukraine can join either NATO, EU or whatever other coalition [Those organizations themselves govern who are members, that should be enough!]. If the Security Guarantee has anything to do with the first two, that needs to be torn to shreds right away because it gives Ukraine nothing and only allows Russia more excuses to weaken Ukraine's sovereignty.
 
Xando

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,641
Macron is talking out his ass again. Russia has nukes. What other "security guarantees" do they need?

What Macron is framing as "security guarantees" actually means giving russia the right to meddle in ukrainian politics
 
Mentalist

Mentalist

Member
Mar 14, 2019
18,249
NetMapel said:

View: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1599111450579988480

I feel like I need some further elaboration on what Macron is saying. Since it doesn't make a lot of sense to me because how does a new security guarantee work for a country that broke previous security guarantees??? Is Macron full of hopium?
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I would guess something along the lines "Ukraine won't formally join NATO for X years". Finalandization-lite, that would allow Putler to save face by saying "see, no NATO missiles in Kharkiv!" (Nevermind that there'll be a NATO border less than 100 km from St. Peterburg, and the Baltic fleet will be swimming in a NATO lake)
 
activepassive

activepassive

Member
Oct 28, 2017
933
Cincinnati, OH
All of the typical Russia apologists are chomping at the hit and basically spelling absolute doom for Ukraine with the mythologized mobilized 200k coming any day.

No mention of the fact that the 80k already sent and currently being slaughtered have made no appreciable gains.

But I so try to consume news and analysis from both sides to get a sense of where everything is at and it has been wearing me down some. I do worry about how it speaks to a larger sense of putin doubling and tripling down. Ukraine's resilience won't wain but there is the serious concern that they will not be able to continue fighting back at this level if Western support wains. And that is a real danger. Ugh.

Edit: balanced below with something to be super excited about!


View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599174413739388928?t=r_NNUfZJ9L3DzfdN2BB-9A&s=19
 
Mentalist

Mentalist

Member
Mar 14, 2019
18,249
activepassive said:
All of the typical Russia apologists are chomping at the hit and basically spelling absolute doom for Ukraine with the mythologized mobilized 200k coming any day.

No mention of the fact that the 80k already sent and currently being slaughtered have made no appreciable gains.

But I so try to consume news and analysis from both sides to get a sense of where everything is at and it has been wearing me down some. I do worry about how it speaks to a larger sense of putin doubling and tripling down. Ukraine's resilience won't wain but there is the serious concern that they will not be able to continue fighting back at this level if Western support wains. And that is a real danger. Ugh.

Edit: balanced below with something to be super excited about!


View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599174413739388928?t=r_NNUfZJ9L3DzfdN2BB-9A&s=19
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What's really exciting are their comments on TG where they say they were just recon, but "other units are currently deploying on the Left Bank to give the orcs hell when the time is right"
 
pswii60

pswii60

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,760
The Milky Way
NetMapel said:

View: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1599111450579988480

I feel like I need some further elaboration on what Macron is saying. Since it doesn't make a lot of sense to me because how does a new security guarantee work for a country that broke previous security guarantees??? Is Macron full of hopium?
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More short-termism from Macron there. Sure you might bring the current conflict to a close sooner by offering concessions to Russia, and get all your brownie points for the history books. But all you do is tell the world that if you don't like something, start a horrific war, and eventually you'll get what you want. And we'll see more and more conflicts.
 
thewienke

thewienke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,150
pswii60 said:
More short-termism from Macron there. Sure you might bring the current conflict to a close sooner by offering concessions to Russia, and get all your brownie points for the history books. But all you do is tell the world that if you don't like something, start a horrific war, and eventually you'll get what you want. And we'll see more and more conflicts.
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The upside is that Macron doesn't decide what Ukraine wants

The idea that a NATO power can get Ukraine to stop fighting is 100% a Russian narrative that those kinds of statements play into
 
SFLUFAN

SFLUFAN

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,491
Alexandria, VA
ISW analysis for 03 December 2022:

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian “Carlson” volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boa
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian "Carlson" volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boats, reaching a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank, and raising a Ukrainian flag on a tower near the shore.[1] Special Unit "Carlson" reported that this is the first instance of a Ukrainian flag flying over the east bank of the Dnipro River and emphasized this operation will provide a springboard for subsequent Ukrainian operations on the east bank.[2] If confirmed, this limited Ukrainian incursion onto the east bank could open avenues for Ukrainian forces to begin to operate on the east bank. As ISW has previously reported, observed Russian fortifications on the left bank indicate Russian forces are anticipating Ukrainian offensive actions on the east bank and have been constructing defensive lines south of the Dnipro River.[3] The establishment of positions along the eastern riverbank will likely set conditions for future Ukrainian offensive operations into occupied Kherson Oblast if Ukrainian troops choose to pursue this line of advance in the south.

French President Emmanuel Macron amplified Russian information operations about the West's need to discuss Russian "security guarantees" in a televised interview on December 3.[4] Macron stated that the West should consider how to address Russian security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine: "That topic will be part of the topics for peace, so we need to prepare what we are ready to do, how we protect our allies and member states, and how to give guarantees to Russia the day it returns to the negotiating table."[5] ISW has extensively documented how the Kremlin demanded "security guarantees" and declared "lines" as part of the ultimatum it presented the US and NATO before launching the February 2022 invasion.[6] Russia's demanded security guarantees entail partially dismantling NATO by returning NATO to its 1997 borders and grants Russia a veto on future NATO expansion by demanding NATO suspend its "Open Door" policy.[7] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to these precise demands on December 1, as ISW previously reported.[8] The Russian demand for supposed "security guarantees" is part of a larger Russian information operation that portrays NATO as having provoked the 2022 Russian invasion by threatening Russia. The security guarantees that Ukraine, NATO, and the rest of Europe would accept from Russia following the Kremlin's unprovoked and brutal war of conquest against Ukraine might be a more appropriate topic of conversation for Western leaders considering negotiations with Moscow.

Independent Russian polling data indicates that Russian citizens still support Russia's military operations in Ukraine despite growing war weariness over the past six months. Independent Russian polling organization Levada Center found that 74 percent of Russians support Russian forces' actions in the war in Ukraine in a November poll published on December 2.[9] The poll found that 42 percent of respondents "strongly support" and 32 percent "somewhat support" Russian forces' actions in Ukraine.[10] The poll also found that only 41 percent of respondents favored Russia continuing military operations in Ukraine, however, whereas 53 percent said that Russia should begin peace negotiations.[11] Levada Center polling between July and November 2022 shows small but consistent erosion in support for the war among Russians.[12] Levada Center findings are similar to a reported internal Kremlin-commissioned poll from November that found that 55 percent of Russians favor peace talks with Ukraine and only 25 percent favor continuing the war.[13]

Both polls indicate that a shrinking but still significant portion of Russian citizens support—and are even enthusiastic about—continuing the war in Ukraine despite Russian military failures. Russian morale and political support for the war will likely further degrade with time if current trends hold. The longer the war continues to produce Russian casualties while Ukrainian forces gain ground the more the socio-political dynamics will likely continue to turn against the Kremlin. An operational pause under the guise of peace negotiations could alleviate growing political pressure on the Kremlin and allow Russia to reconstitute its forces for subsequent renewed offensive operations.

Conditions in eastern Ukraine are reportedly becoming more conducive for a higher pace of operations as winter sets in. A Russian milblogger claimed on December 3 that the ground has frozen along the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will likely increase the pace of their counteroffensive operations in the area as a result.[14] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also stated on December 2 that weather is finally changing on the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their counter-offensive maneuver operations as mud in the area fully freezes.[15] ISW has previously assessed that the overall pace of operations is likely to increase in the coming weeks as consistent cold weather allows the ground to freeze throughout the theater, especially in eastern Ukraine where operations on both sides have been bogged down by heavy mud.[16] Neither Russians nor Ukrainians will likely suspend offensive operations in one of the most optimal times of year for mechanized maneuver warfare in this region.

The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between Russia and Belarus. Russian Minister of Defense Army General Sergei Shoigu met with Belarusian Minister of Defense Major General Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the Agreement on the Joint Provision of Regional Security in the Military Sphere.[17] Shoigu also met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during which Lukashenko stated that Belarusian and Russian forces continue to train together on Belarusian territory so that the "Union State [can] repel any aggression.[18] Shoigu likely met with Khrenin and Lukashenko in an attempt to place pressure on Belarus to further support Russia's offensive campaign in Ukraine. ISW has previously assessed that Belarus is highly unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine due to domestic factors that constrain Lukashenko's willingness to do so.[19]

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri reportedly met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin in Tehran on December 3.[20] The two discussed unspecified military cooperation, according to official readouts from Iranian state media. They may have discussed the sale of Iranian drones and missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine. Bagheri is Iran's chief of defense and is responsible for military policy and strategic guidance. The meeting has not been reported in Russian media as of this writing.

Key Takeaways
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron amplified Russian information operations about the need for NATO to consider "security guarantees" to be given to Russia during putative negotiations in a televised interview on December 3.
  • Conditions in eastern Ukraine are likely becoming more conducive to a higher pace of operations as winter sets in.
  • The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between Russia and Belarus.
  • Ukrainian forces likely continue to advance northwest of Kreminna.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
  • Russian authorities reportedly evacuated Russian collaborators from Oleshky.
  • The Russian National Guard's (Rosgvardia) Organizational and Staff Department confirmed that mobilization continues despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of the formal end of partial mobilization on October 31.
  • Russian authorities are continuing to use judicial measures to consolidate administrative control of occupied territories.
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