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RUMOR: Massive Smash Ultimate leak is allegedly an emotional roller coaster [UPDATES IN OP]

Which team are you in, hooman? (NOTE: Vote-changing disabled!)

  • #TeamReal

    Votes: 2,046 67.7%

  • #TeamFake

    Votes: 978 32.3%
  • Total voters
    3,024
  • Poll closed .
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NotLiquid

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,850
Tribal_Cult said:
Just out of curiosity, I watched the 50 fact extravaganza for Smash 4, and goddamn it was it a slog.
It's 35 minutes long and full of boring and padding stuff, many of which was already shown for Ultimate.
If they keep this format, they can totally show the remaining 7 characters and Spirits mode.
They spent like 10 minutes in that one covering boring single player modes like Target Test and others.
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Counterpoint:
The Smash Final Presentation was 33 minutes long, and mostly 20 of it was spent going through 3 characters. On average they spend a good 5-7 minutes or more talking about new characters, especially because they have newcomer trailers attached, as well as stages, potential assists, etc. Inkling is an exception, but that's because they were part of a lightning round and were already announced three months prior. If it's a new franchise rep, they're guaranteed to have a good chunk of screentime to go through, and this leak suggests we're getting four.

Even for the April Smash 4 Direct, a lot of people expected the "New Fighters" section to show off unannounced characters, but it mostly focused on ones that were already announced, which took a fair time to detail.

For Ultimate, there's a lot we don't know about the game yet. For instance:
  • What additional game modes are there?
  • How's break the targets this time? What stadium options are there?
  • Is Sakurai going to explain more details on Isabelle? We only got a trailer drop, and last time a character only received trailer footage (Cloud), they were covered in the subsequent Direct in more detail. K. Rool got demo footage, sure, but Isabelle hasn't gotten that yet.
  • How's Spirits mode like? This is the big one - because by omitting it from the previous Direct, it's implied that it's pretty big to just cover in quick detail.
  • How's customization this time around? What do Miis get? What new Mii costumes can we expect?
  • Are there any more unique stages to show off?
  • What online options do we have?
  • Since Stage Builder is most likely in, how will it have changed? Is online sharing and replays still a thing without Miiverse?
  • etcetera, etcetera
... And we're to expect that on top of this they'll detail 7 more characters?

We're looking at an hour plus Direct at that point. And that doesn't sound very feasible. Such rapid pacing doesn't do a lot of the info they have to cover a service, so it makes no sense not to have dropped a few other character reveals earlier.

People might just care about characters, but that's not what Sakurai only cares about. For him, all the additional features are just as important.
 
BassForever

BassForever

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
29,977
CT
Neoxon said:
As the creator of the female fighter ratio thread, I'd say they're only counted if they're female by default (I.E. only Inkling, Wii Fit Trainer, & Mii Gunner count). This would rule out alternate gender variants like Robin, Corrin, Pokémon Trainer, & Villager.
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I can understand and get behind this argument (even if I don't fully agree with it). That still doesn't address the issue where people seem to want a female character who hits all these boxes

Is a significant character
Has no male variant
Isn't an echo or clone
Is humanoid / not animal like

There really aren't that many charactets when you pigeon hole yourself like this.
 
Platy

Platy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,780
Brazil
GlassCup64 said:
Why does everyone say a Smash Direct is early next month? Wouldn't it make more sense to do it early December?
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Luigi was posted a few days ago and he was expected to be posted on November 8 because that is when luigi's mansion is released for 3ds in Japan, like how Wario was posted when Wario Ware gold was released in Japan.

Mix this with game exclusive directs being common a month before like the smash 4's 50 fact one and they needing to talk about spirits and you get a probable smash direct on November 8
 
Neoxon

Neoxon

Spotlighting Black Excellence - Diversity Analyst
Member
Oct 25, 2017
85,594
Houston, TX
BassForever said:
I can understand and get behind this argument (even if I don't fully agree with it). That still doesn't address the issue where people seem to want a female character who hits all these boxes

Is a significant character
Has no male variant
Isn't an echo or clone
Is humanoid / not animal like

There really aren't that many charactets when you pigeon hole yourself like this.
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I don't agree with ruling out animals such as Isabelle, someone who I indeed counted in the thread. Characters with a male variant are fair game as long as the female variant is the default version. Dark Samus was only counted since female pronouns were often used in her own games, while Jigglypuff was counted due to the Pokémon being often portrayed as feminine despite the lack of a clear sign of its gender like Pikachu.
 
Lynd

Lynd

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,445
I can't see Nintendo putting Banjo in. He hasn't had a game in 10 years and not been on a Nintendo system since the GBA.

Maybe Microsoft gave em a great deal, seems unlikely though.
 
Tribal_Cult

Tribal_Cult

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
3,548
NotLiquid said:
Counterpoint:
The Smash Final Presentation was 33 minutes long, and mostly 20 of it was spent going through 3 characters. On average they spend a good 5-7 minutes or more talking about new characters, especially because they have newcomer trailers attached, as well as stages, potential assists, etc. Inkling is an exception, but that's because they were part of a lightning round and were already announced three months prior. If it's a new franchise rep, they're guaranteed to have a good chunk of screentime to go through, and this leak suggests we're getting four.

Even for the April Smash 4 Direct, a lot of people expected the "New Fighters" section to show off unannounced characters, but it mostly focused on ones that were already announced, which took a fair time to detail.

For Ultimate, there's a lot we don't know about the game yet. For instance:
  • What additional game modes are there?
  • How's break the targets this time? What stadium options are there?
  • Is Sakurai going to explain more details on Isabelle? We only got a trailer drop, and last time a character only received trailer footage (Cloud), they were covered in the subsequent Direct in more detail. K. Rool got demo footage, sure, but Isabelle hasn't gotten that yet.
  • How's Spirits mode like? This is the big one - because by omitting it from the previous Direct, it's implied that it's pretty big to just cover immediately.
  • How's customization this time around? What do Miis get? What new Mii costumes can we expect?
  • Are there any more unique stages to show off?
  • What online options do we have?
  • Since Stage Builder is most likely in, how will it have changed? Is online sharing and replays still a thing without Miiverse?
  • etcetera, etcetera
... And we're to expect that on top of this they'll detail 7 more characters?

We're looking at an hour plus Direct at that point.
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I dunno, maybe we're looking at this the wrong way. Every Smash heavy related info dump has been pretty different, for example, Sakurai never spent so much type explaining the differences about veteran fighters like he did at E3.
Also, I could see the focus of this game to be about the roster itself, and single player modes like Target Test won't be covered as much, or maybe they've been cut entirely. So the Final Direct could indeed just be a detail explanation of the remaining characters (which are just 5 really, not 7, since I don't see Sakurai spending too much time on Ken and Shadow), and an overview of Spirits mode, which I expect to have story in it so it could just be a quick trailer and a quick explanation of a single level to see how it works.
It's interesting we haven't seen a single trophy as of yet, maybe we'll get confirmation they're still in (of course they are), but not much else. Same could apply to Stage Editor (even though I could see this being cut honestly after the mess it was in Smash 4). Also, we could get a trailer for all the remaining characters, since this time around trailers seem all over the place (Inkling basically did not get one, echoes of course do not get them except Richter, and Isabelle got a really weird one which seemed attached to the Animal Crossing announcement even though she's a full on newcomer). It's not like in Smash 4 in which every single newcomer except the echoes got their own peculiar trailer.
 
gunlovefiction

gunlovefiction

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
2,399
It is fake guys, Banjo? Geno? Isacc? Fucking ridiculous. All the insiders don't believe it as well. FUUUUUUUUUUCK, I DON'T WANT TONY THE FUCKING TIGER
 
IntelliHeath

IntelliHeath

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,197
Mipmap said:
Honestly I think the leak blank banner is pretty close to the E3 blank banner
IXKRDk4.gif


If I mess with the contrast and exposure it's very plausible the buildings could get lost in a grey blotch, especially in a very low res blurry snapchat image.
3OY3CxM.gif


This reminds me of Wario's eye and Game & Watch's hand in the ESRB leak lol. I'm still on team real.
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Why is the line-edge of waterfall changed? I wonder what caused that? Comparing those pictures and it just seems that the waterfall edge just eroded.
 
Weiss

Weiss

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
64,265
doop_ said:
It is fake guys, Banjo? Geno? Isacc? Fucking ridiculous. All the insiders don't believe it as well. FUUUUUUUUUUCK, I DON'T WANT TONY THE FUCKING TIGER
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We still don't know yet. The most convincing piece of evidence against it is an inconsistent piece of background art.
 
Dyle

Dyle

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
30,058
doop_ said:
It is fake guys, Banjo? Geno? Isacc? Fucking ridiculous. All the insiders don't believe it as well. FUUUUUUUUUUCK, I DON'T WANT TONY THE FUCKING TIGER
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No one wants Tony the Tiger when Sam Toucan and Lucky the Leprechaun are better picks, but this is the world we live in. Just be glad that at least one tiger will be in the game if the Kellogg's check goes through
 
Cyple

Cyple

Member
Jan 9, 2018
96
Lynd said:
I can't see Nintendo putting Banjo in. He hasn't had a game in 10 years and not been on a Nintendo system since the GBA.

Maybe Microsoft gave em a great deal, seems unlikely though.
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Yeah because Cloud Strife was a real hit on a Nintendo Console in the last never years. Sakurai wanted Banjo in Melee so bringing him finally in now that Microsoft is much more open is the perfect decision. TEAM REAL!!
 
Phoenix Splash

Phoenix Splash

Member
Mar 23, 2018
2,654
The leaker got real info

He didn't want to leak the real and official banner, as that would be putting his job at risk

The leaker decided to create a new banner with the real leaks on it, thus he didn't show actual NDA artwork, but didn't want to show all of the characters(The most obvious ones, like Incineroar and, perhaps, Majora?)

He deliberately showed the Grinch


This could all be solved by having an anonymous leaker say "This X character shown in the banner is not in the game" but here we are. If they're not saying that, I take that the shown characters are in the game.
 
NotLiquid

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,850
Tribal_Cult said:
I dunno, maybe we're looking at this the wrong way. Every Smash heavy related info dump has been pretty different, for example, Sakurai never spent so much type explaining the differences about veteran fighters like he did at E3.
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This is untrue. The original Smash 4 Direct had a section where he went through a bunch of critical changes to the announced veterans, and even mentions how they held off on announcing some of the veterans as their changes were too drastic.

The only reason it feels like they spent more time was because at this E3 we got every character announced at once. Back in Smash 4, half of the veterans weren't announced yet.
 
Geno

Geno

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 29, 2017
9,812
Thessaloniki
1. Art pieces change, they might've felt the castle was better off removed. Can't say for sure
2. Chorus Kids, Isaac and Mach Rider can be all revealed in a single video easily.
 
NotLiquid

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,850
ned_ballad said:
Maybe they simplified the background due the large number of characters?

That missing castle is the first real bit of potentially bad news for this leak.
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That's a lot of unnecessary work for no gain, especially when most of the characters are crowding the background as is. The portion with the island is never even seen, and likely wouldn't be seen even with this amount of characters.

It's an illustration, not a 3D model.
 
TimeFire

TimeFire

Avenger
Nov 26, 2017
9,625
Brazil
Phoenix Splash said:
The leaker got real info

He didn't want to leak the real and official banner, as that would be putting his job at risk

The leaker decided to create a new banner with the real leaks on it, thus he didn't show actual NDA artwork, but didn't want to show all of the characters(The most obvious ones, like Incineroar and, perhaps, Majora?)

He deliberately showed the Grinch


This could all be solved by having an anonymous leaker say "This X character shown in the banner is not in the game" but here we are. If they're not saying that, I take that the shown characters are in the game.
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Click to shrink...

I think no insider is certain about the roster. So they don't want to be labeled as "That guy/gal that said Mach Rider wasn't in Ultimate" if it turns out that they were wrong.

People were digging into GameXplain because they didn't believe the ESRB roster, imagine someone that deliberatly got something wrong in a leak this big.
 
Tribal_Cult

Tribal_Cult

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
3,548
NotLiquid said:
This is untrue. The original Smash 4 Direct had a section where he went through a bunch of critical changes to the announced veterans, and even mentions how they held off on announcing some of the veterans as their changes were too drastic.

The only reason it feels like they spent more time was because at this E3 we got every character announced at once. Back in Smash 4, half of the veterans weren't announced yet.
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Don't remember that, but I doubt it was as heavy as in the E3 Direct. And still, Smashes info dumps are all over the place. The Extravaganza, the pre-release Direct, even the last Direct about Corrin and Bayonetta was different. There are various ways to announce stuff.
That said, if they repeat the Extravaganza format, and focus on the roster like they seem to be doing, they can cram it into a 40-45 minute presentation.
 
Lynd

Lynd

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,445
Cyple said:
Yeah because Cloud Strife was a real hit on a Nintendo Console in the last never years. Sakurai wanted Banjo in Melee so bringing him finally in now that Microsoft is much more open is the perfect decision. TEAM REAL!!
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Difference is Square can and does make games for Nintendo platforms, Microsoft is a direct competitor.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Yeah that battlefield artwork being available changed my mind now to fake.

This wouldn't be that hard to do if you have the background. I myself could probably do a fairly good job using paint.net to cut out all of the character models from the last official artwork and reposition them, then add a few new ones I found images of online. Probably in an hour or two.

The main evidence we have is this guy's position at this company, but... that doesn't have to be fake. That can be 100% real and he mocked up this fake banner just to be a douche.

"But nobody in their right mind would put their job at risk to do this"- my counterpoint- nobody in their right mind would 3D print a fake NX controller. Nobody in their right mind would make a fake Rayman render. Fakers have gone way beyond what we think normal people would do time and time again, I wouldn't put anything past a faker nowadays.

I can't change my vote but I'm considering myself an honorary member of #TeamFake.
 
ned_ballad

ned_ballad

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
48,288
Rochester, New York
NotLiquid said:
That's a lot of unnecessary work for no gain, especially when most of the characters are crowding the background as is. The portion with the island is never even seen, and likely wouldn't be seen even with this amount of characters.

It's an illustration, not a 3D model.
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It just feels like this is one of those things where later on it turns out "oh... they actually did change the background" type deals like some of the problems the ESRB leak had.
 
Rotobit

Rotobit

Editor at Nintendo Wire
Verified
Oct 27, 2017
10,196
NotLiquid said:
That's a lot of unnecessary work for no gain, especially when most of the characters are crowding the background as is. The portion with the island is never even seen, and likely wouldn't be seen even with this amount of characters.

It's an illustration, not a 3D model.
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To be fair the illustration could have its different constituent parts saved as layers, which the artist could enable or disable as they saw fit. Not saying that's what happened of course, but it's just as viable a possibility.

skittzo0413 said:
Yeah that battlefield artwork being available changed my mind now to fake.

This wouldn't be that hard to do if you have the background. I myself could probably do a fairly good job using paint.net to cut out all of the character models from the last official artwork and reposition them, then add a few new ones I found images of online. Probably in an hour or two.

The main evidence we have is this guy's position at this company, but... that doesn't have to be fake. That can be 100% real and he mocked up this fake banner just to be a douche.

"But nobody in their right mind would put their job at risk to do this"- my counterpoint- nobody in their right mind would 3D print a fake NX controller. Nobody in their right mind would make a fake Rayman render. Fakers have gone way beyond what we think normal people would do time and time again, I wouldn't put anything past a faker nowadays.

I can't change my vote but I'm considering myself an honorary member of #TeamFake.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

For what it's worth, the potential proof that it's fake is that the guy didn't know the background existed, and mocked it up himself.
 
TimeFire

TimeFire

Avenger
Nov 26, 2017
9,625
Brazil
skittzo0413 said:
Yeah that battlefield artwork being available changed my mind now to fake.

This wouldn't be that hard to do if you have the background. I myself could probably do a fairly good job using paint.net to cut out all of the character models from the last official artwork and reposition them, then add a few new ones I found images of online. Probably in an hour or two.

The main evidence we have is this guy's position at this company, but... that doesn't have to be fake. That can be 100% real and he mocked up this fake banner just to be a douche.

"But nobody in their right mind would put their job at risk to do this"- my counterpoint- nobody in their right mind would 3D print a fake NX controller. Nobody in their right mind would make a fake Rayman render. Fakers have gone way beyond what we think normal people would do time and time again, I wouldn't put anything past a faker nowadays.

I can't change my vote but I'm considering myself an honorary member of #TeamFake.
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While I am also thinking this is fake, the bolded jumped out to me. The NX controller was a innocent prank through and through, and the Rayman leak was a viral marketing stunt for Smashified.

This one got an actual person and company in the eye of the storm, so it's a little different. There's probably going to be legal and financial repercussions for everyone involved.
 
Tribal_Cult

Tribal_Cult

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
3,548
skittzo0413 said:
"But nobody in their right mind would put their job at risk to do this"- my counterpoint- nobody in their right mind would 3D print a fake NX controller. Nobody in their right mind would make a fake Rayman render. Fakers have gone way beyond what we think normal people would do time and time again, I wouldn't put anything past a faker nowadays.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I'll give you the first but the Rayman leak was done specifically to kickstart the Smashified project
 
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