Then you lose more by picking a random candidate this late. If anything that will split the pa rty
The issue isn't in the scenario he steps down, the issue is in the scenario where he doesn't and Democrats take a huge bath in the election and the reps(which by accounts is almost all of them) saying privately he needs to step down, but acting feckless in public, will draw the ire of Democrats the way Hillary and other Democrats drew the ire of voters for supporting the Iraq War.
I agree it's a real concern having motivated voters to turn out.
I think it's possible it will work the other way. Biden will depress turnout for those measures
I think it's not great to compare midterm turnout to Presidential year turnouts, but the point is well taken that the turnout could just as well be higher for GOP base who will also vote for these measures.
There is zero ability to really qualify this statement though, it is not possible to run the experiments side by side. At best you can say that a new candidate has it's own set of dangers and risks.
The new candidate would be Kamala who is part of the administration that has the stance on Israel.
What is she gonna say? As long as there's even the fraction of a chance biden runs with her as VP she's not gonna come out and stab him in the back with anything else but the administrations position.
Mehdi Hassan has made this point repeatedly, and today I was listening to an NPR piece driving into work talking about just how absolutely toxic the rift between Tik Tok Influencers on the left and Biden's Administration has become. And these are the influencers and platform at the center of what led to a 40-year high in youth turnout in 2020 and 2022, and overwhelmingly for Democrats.
An underrated point is also that Kamala wouldn't be so reviled by young voters that left-leaning influencers wouldn't feel like they couldn't post about her on TikTok. Her meme status here is also, weirdly, helpful.
What's weird is how the DNC just fumbled things with youth engagement post Obama.
Picking Biden as VP would be unwise on a number of levels tbh. From the age concern we currently have, to restricting freedom of movement to distance from Biden on unpopular policies, to playing into emerging(and racist/misogynist) Trump/GOP attacks that she is a DEI hire that slept her way to the top and isn't trusted by Biden to lead.
And I dont even put this one on Biden, I doubt he even knows this went on, but in my mind it speaks to how it's not just Biden that is a problem, his campaign team is shaping up to be as disastrous as the one's Biden had in his 3 prior failed bids at the presidency.
I mean, yes, but also, it's Biden.
That is the way I have heard it presented on news programs/podcasts by people who should know.
Harris would inherit them, there'd be zero issues there.
It's upsetting to me because this is clearly a prideful move on Biden's part. He's thinking only of himself; not the country. When he loses, he'll die a pariah, which is a shame given his political service.
