Wait
If that's accurate the 800-900k estimate is impossible
Quite literally impossible. Switch would have had to sell virtually nothing the entire month
Wait
If that's accurate the 800-900k estimate is impossible
Quite literally impossible. Switch would have had to sell virtually nothing the entire month
Wait
If that's accurate the 800-900k estimate is impossible
Quite literally impossible. Switch would have had to sell virtually nothing the entire month
If we go with 500k, then last year's BF was about 230k, so that the rest of November 2017 did over 500k. It'd be hard to imagine that this November would do less than last year, so it should be over 1M at least by that metric.Unless I'm missing something Wii was never confirmed to do 800k+ during BF week. It just did that up to that point in November one year.
The highest known Nintendo BF week alone is 500k+ correct? So it simply means Switch was above 500k BF week.
Now keep in mind that still would mean the Pokemon games + typical holiday boost only account for 300k or so sales the whole month. Disappointing for sure but not impossible
Iwata's number is for 7 days of sales vs the 5 days here if that makes any difference.Wait
If that's accurate the 800-900k estimate is impossible
Quite literally impossible. Switch would have had to sell virtually nothing the entire month
Wait
If that's accurate the 800-900k estimate is impossible
Quite literally impossible. Switch would have had to sell virtually nothing the entire month
So why they didn't add the rest of the month? Don't tell me they don't have numbers because they wouldn't have BF ones too.Right, which is why it makes sense that rather than selling zero for the rest of the month, Nintendo is just adding that 800-900k to the previous LTD figures as of the end of October. The fact that those numbers added together hits their 8.2 million figure right on the nose leads me to believe strongly that this is what happened.
Wait
If that's accurate the 800-900k estimate is impossible
Quite literally impossible. Switch would have had to sell virtually nothing the entire month
So why they didn't add the rest of the month? Don't tell me they don't have numbers because they wouldn't have BF ones too.
So why they didn't add the rest of the month? Don't tell me they don't have numbers because they wouldn't have BF ones too.
I'm not doubting your numbers, there is just really no reasonable explanation when reporting LTD figures to not include everything sold so far, but it's Nintendo so maybe everything is possible.I have no idea what going on with that LTD number but I can tell you flat out right now with zero doubt that Switch sold more than 200k units prior to BF.
So it being under 1 million as of CM is impossible
I have no idea what going on with that LTD number but I can tell you flat out right now with zero doubt that Switch sold more than 200k units prior to BF.
So it being under 1 million as of CM is impossible
In addition, if BF this year was 595k, then last year's BF period was less than 300k. Leaving over 450k for the rest of the month. That means that last year Switch would have sold more than twice as kuch as Switch did this year in November outside BF. That's just not reasonable, and even then BF should be over 800k going by Iwata's statement on Wii 2008.Taking another angle on things:
Wii 2006: 476,000 (Launch) --> Wii NPD November : 476k (launch)
Wii 2007: 350,000 / 36% --> Wii NPD November : 981k
Wii 2008: 800,000 / 39% --> Wii NPD November : 2,04m
Wii 2009: 550,000 / 44% --> Wii NPD November : 1,26m
Wii 2010: 600,000 / 47% --> Wii NPD November : 1,27m
Wii 2011: +500,000 / +58% (500K just on Black Friday, whole week unknown) --> Wii NPD November : 860k
Wii 2012: 300,000 / 71% --> Wii NPD November : 420k
We see the BF week share of total November sales. Now, I think its reasonable to say that these 5 days (thanksgiving to cyber monday) will have an even bigger share compared to these weeks above (which are sunday before BF to the saturday following).
If we give Switch last year a 36% share over these 5 days, which I'd consider to be a minimal estimate as it was Wii's lowest BF week share and due to the above, this leads to Switch doing 595k over those 5 days this year. If we take the average of Wii's share (49%) that leads to 811k for Switch in those 5 days. If we take Wii's highest, 71%, then its 1175k for Switch in those 5 days, which is almost definitely too high, but its a nice upper bound.
Now I'd consider those early, lower percentages to be less representative. Since, as we remember from back then, the Wii was very supply constrained and they sold whatever they shipped as soon as it landed on the shelves. Switch last year wasn't supply constrained, but it also didn't get any major deals over these 5 days to boost sales much. However, its when most people do their shopping, as we know. Additionally, these 5 days seem to be getting more and more important in terms of total sales every year.
Let's consider Switch did do the very low estimate of 595k over those 5 days. That leaves about 250k, if the 8.2M is correct, for the first two and a half weeks of November, with the momentum off of the Smash bundle launching and of course a fairly big Pokemon launch. That already seems like a stretch, yet this is the extremely unlikely absolute maximum sold in those first two weeks if 8.2M is true.
Pretty much all logical thinking I can apply leads me to believe that 8.2M is just way off.
Gotta factor in the 1 million units that were returned when people realised they couldn't play Spider-Man on it ofc ;)
But for reals. Nintendo PR always sucks because their numbers are always out of line with the reality.
Wait for NPD.
Taking another angle on things:
Wii 2006: 476,000 (Launch) --> Wii NPD November : 476k (launch)
Wii 2007: 350,000 / 36% --> Wii NPD November : 981k
Wii 2008: 800,000 / 39% --> Wii NPD November : 2,04m
Wii 2009: 550,000 / 44% --> Wii NPD November : 1,26m
Wii 2010: 600,000 / 47% --> Wii NPD November : 1,27m
Wii 2011: +500,000 / +58% (500K just on Black Friday, whole week unknown) --> Wii NPD November : 860k
Wii 2012: 300,000 / 71% --> Wii NPD November : 420k
We see the BF week share of total November sales. Now, I think its reasonable to say that these 5 days (thanksgiving to cyber monday) will have an even bigger share compared to these weeks above (which are sunday before BF to the saturday following).
If we give Switch last year a 36% share over these 5 days, which I'd consider to be a minimal estimate as it was Wii's lowest BF week share and due to the above, this leads to Switch doing 595k over those 5 days this year. If we take the average of Wii's share (49%) that leads to 811k for Switch in those 5 days. If we take Wii's highest, 71%, then its 1175k for Switch in those 5 days, which is almost definitely too high, but its a nice upper bound.
Now I'd consider those early, lower percentages to be less representative. Since, as we remember from back then, the Wii was very supply constrained and they sold whatever they shipped as soon as it landed on the shelves. Switch last year wasn't supply constrained, but it also didn't get any major deals over these 5 days to boost sales much. However, its when most people do their shopping, as we know. Additionally, these 5 days seem to be getting more and more important in terms of total sales every year.
Let's consider Switch did do the very low estimate of 595k over those 5 days. That leaves about 250k, if the 8.2M is correct, for the first two and a half weeks of November, with the momentum off of the Smash bundle launching and of course a fairly big Pokemon launch. That already seems like a stretch, yet this is the extremely unlikely absolute maximum sold in those first two weeks if 8.2M is true.
Pretty much all logical thinking I can apply leads me to believe that 8.2M is just way off, and that 800-900k is the figure for those 5 days.
Again, the problem with comparing this 5 day period with last year's using NPD numbers is that last year's November NPD did not track Cyber Monday.
I'm not doubting your numbers, there is just really no reasonable explanation when reporting LTD figures to not include everything sold so far, but it's Nintendo so maybe everything is possible.
Nintendo isnt comparing this to last years NPD tracking.
It's a direct comparison for week to week last year. CM will have had no impact on the 115% growth Nintendo is reporting
So in actuality the growth this year will be even larger than what's being reported
Ok yeah that settle it definitively. I know for a fact Switch moved more hardware than that outside of BF week. Like straight up have the data saying it did
So if BF week itself is over 800k then Switch is over 1 million for the month by a decent margin after Cyber Monday
This is making more sense. That 8.2 million LTD though doesnt add up at all
I like to think that Mat Piscatella is sitting there reading this thread with a chuckle as he looks at the exact and accurate numbers that we're all trying to figure out and make sense of.
In addition, if BF this year was 595k, then last year's BF period was less than 300k. Leaving over 450k for the rest of the month. That means that last year Switch would have sold more than twice as kuch as Switch did this year in November outside BF. That's just not reasonable, and even then BF should be over 800k going by Iwata's statement on Wii 2008.
Mat actually wont have full data yet. NPD tracking period isnt over yet. Hes probably got some reporting though yeah
So now that the likeliest theory is that the reported number is just October data + BF + CM date, we can figure out:
4.8 millions for Switch last year + estimated of 2.505 millions for the January - October period according to NPD = 7.305 millions Switch from launch to late october.
8.2 millions - 7.305 = 895k for the thursday before Black Friday to Cyber Monday period.
Meaning Switch may have sold close to 900k in a single week in November. Feeling confident that it's hitting 1.4-1.5M for the whole month.
Also means that since Benji's data suggest PS4 was above that, it could have sold more than 1M only in the black friday week.
I like to think that Mat Piscatella is sitting there reading this thread with a chuckle as he looks at the exact and accurate numbers that we're all trying to figure out and make sense of.
I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
Why doesn't have this message board a like button?I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
Nice.I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
I don't know if I'm just reading into this wrong or something but it sounds kind of like you're saying 3.8 million isn't "over 3 million" when it is in fact 800,000 over 3 million.remember that we're talking about the company that reported selling "over 3 million" Wii consoles one December and then the NPD reported 3.8 million.
Calamari's description is more epic, though, I think you should go with that one instead!I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
I don't know if I'm just reading into this wrong or something but it sounds kind of like you're saying 3.8 million isn't "over 3 million" when it is in fact 800,000 over 3 million.
The issue is that some contend that Nintendo wouldn't give lower bound numbers (I.e. "over X million") that are significantly below the actual number, when in reality we know they do.I don't know if I'm just reading into this wrong or something but it sounds kind of like you're saying 3.8 million isn't "over 3 million" when it is in fact 800,000 over 3 million.