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Shiny Rayquaza #4 this morning on my main account! Keep em comin'
Man, I got a shiny on my secondary account 4th raid, but since then nothing. My main account got one around #19? Then 25ish, 32ish, and now maybe 35?
I got a few boosted Rayquaza the other day from the typhoon too.
Edit: Ok, I'm at Seen 77 for my main, so not 35. More like 45.
Man, I got a shiny on my secondary account 4th raid, but since then nothing. My main account got one around #19? Then 25ish, 32ish, and now maybe 35?
I got a few boosted Rayquaza the other day from the typhoon too.
Edit: Ok, I'm at Seen 77 for my main, so not 35. More like 45.
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That's pretty standard lol. Horrible luck would be getting 1 or none. :p
Standard is 1/20. So at 80 raids you would expect to have 4. So I'm under the average now.
Yeah but falling under the average ever so slightly is not horrible luck. There are people in my local group who are 0/80+. :P
Chances are you'll climb back up in the next 20 or so raids.
Well, *puts on Neil DeGrasse Tyson glasses... a 5% chance isn't the same as 1 out of 20.
When you do a raid, you have a 95% probability of not getting a shiny. If you want to calculate the probability you won't get a shiny in two raid, you'd multiple 95% by 95% and get 90.25%. So, rather than a 10% probability of finding a shiny, it'd be 9.75%. With 3 raids, 95% x 95% x 95% = 85.7375%, a 14.25ish% probability. With 10 raids, 59.87% no shiny. With 20 raids, 35.84% no shiny. So, with 20 raids, the probability of getting one is 64ish%. Pretty high, but not 100%.
With 30 raids, 21.46% no shiny. With 40 raids, 12.85% no shiny. After 40 raids, there's a probability that about 1 out of 10 people would not have gotten a shiny. Anyway, you can keep going, but it'll never be 100%. Of course, that's all just probability. Every time, it's 5%.
Pokemon Go Luck is weird anyway. I mean, how many Charge TMs have we wasted on a 50% chance. It's like Casino luck.
When you do a raid, you have a 95% probability of not getting a shiny. If you want to calculate the probability you won't get a shiny in two raid, you'd multiple 95% by 95% and get 90.25%. So, rather than a 10% probability of finding a shiny, it'd be 9.75%. With 3 raids, 95% x 95% x 95% = 85.7375%, a 14.25ish% probability. With 10 raids, 59.87% no shiny. With 20 raids, 35.84% no shiny. So, with 20 raids, the probability of getting one is 64ish%. Pretty high, but not 100%.
With 30 raids, 21.46% no shiny. With 40 raids, 12.85% no shiny. After 40 raids, there's a probability that about 1 out of 10 people would not have gotten a shiny. Anyway, you can keep going, but it'll never be 100%. Of course, that's all just probability. Every time, it's 5%.
Pokemon Go Luck is weird anyway. I mean, how many Charge TMs have we wasted on a 50% chance. It's like Casino luck.
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