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PCGAMER: Loot boxes are a matter of 'life or death' for problem gamblers, says researcher

Border

Border

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,859
Clusterdreams said:
What's the point in being Private Pedantic here? Obviously it's a euphemism used to describe how dire the situation is. Even then who's to say that lootboxes don't send someone down a spiral that could inevitably lead to their deaths?
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Who is to say that trying marijuana doesn't put someone's life into a death spiral?

The point of any study is to put an end to hypothetical speculation like this. By Zendle's own admission, there is no causual relationship between lootboxes and Problem Gambling. His conclusion seems to be that the correlation between lootboxes and Problem Gambling is "small to medium", similar to the relationship between Gambling and alcohol dependence.

His alarmist language is at odds with his own findings. I would be happy if people spent way less money on this trash but I don't pretend it is a life-or-death situation.
 
Haze

Haze

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,825
Detroit, MI
Border said:
Who is to say that trying marijuana doesn't put someone's life into a death spiral?

The point of any study is to put an end to hypothetical speculation like this. By Zendle's own admission, there is no causual relationship between lootboxes and Problem Gambling. His conclusion seems to be that the correlation between lootboxes and Problem Gambling is "small to medium", similar to the relationship between Gambling and alcohol dependence.
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Marijuana doesn't inherently cause someone to seek out or revert to using hard drugs, that's a long debunked myth.

There are tons of anecdotes from people who have had lootboxes negatively and severely impact their life.
 
SephLuis

SephLuis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,343
Dr. Mario said:
In contrast to baseball cards, lootboxes:
  • Have a higher rate of play - So ? I imagine a person can buy as many baseball/TCG packs as he's available too.
  • Have audiovisually stimulating jackpot effects -
  • Provide near misses - Which is ? Not getting what you want ? You know how rates work ?
  • Can be adjusted before opening -
  • Can be adjusted based on prior purchases - You know this can also be applied to anything that involves luck right ? And you know how RNG in PCs work ?
  • Lack oversight in rate of purchase
  • Lack oversight in age of buyer - because a ESRB rating, a warning and the need of a CC weren't enough....
  • Are infinite
  • Are not a zero-sum game
  • Cannot be bought separately - Depends on the game
  • Cannot be traded - Depends on the game

I swear, in every thread...
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I swear, in every thread...

Border said:

His own study concludes that the average monthly loot box expenditures among "Problem Gamblers" was $16-$60. That is killing people financially? Sixty dollars a month is "life or death"?
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It could be a single dollar and people would still claim to kill everything. These threads and comments are nothing new.
 
Border

Border

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,859
Clusterdreams said:
Marijuana doesn't inherently cause someone to seek out or revert to using hard drugs, that's a long debunked myth.

There are tons of anecdotes from people who have had lootboxes negatively and severely impact their life.
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The point of doing actual research is to overcome the misleading and emotional appeal of random anecdotes. There are plenty of people with anecdotes about marijuana as a gateway drug as well, but I would rather look at the data. That myth you speak of was debunked by research.

If the research conclusion is not as damning as a some expected it to be, then we don't just get to revert to "Yeah, but what about them anecdotes!?"
 
Dave.

Dave.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,170
Rosebud said:
It's obvious that he meant it the same way a glass of alcohol it's a life or death issue to alcoholics. Not that they will literally die if they drink it.
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Some recovered severe alcoholics will literally die if they drink. Some current alcoholics might even die if they stop, without medical assistance. I hope this researcher isn't a medical Dr.
 
Forsaken82

Forsaken82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,930
Nepenthe said:
Baseball cards can at least be traded and sold because they are tangible objects with real-world value. Lootboxes are money sinks because the items found within are self-admittedly worthless.

They're not the same situation.
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Except the worst of lootboxes are those found on Valve games like CS:Go which basically share the exact example you made in defense of baseball cards.
 
Haze

Haze

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,825
Detroit, MI
Border said:
Who is to say that trying marijuana doesn't put someone's life into a death spiral?

The point of any study is to put an end to hypothetical speculation like this. By Zendle's own admission, there is no causual relationship between lootboxes and Problem Gambling. His conclusion seems to be that the correlation between lootboxes and Problem Gambling is "small to medium", similar to the relationship between Gambling and alcohol dependence.

His alarmist language is at odds with his own findings. I would be happy if people spent way less money on this trash but I don't pretend it is a life-or-death situation.
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The research shows a direct link and you're trying to downplay it because over "average" amounts that in and of themselves pile up? You're point is coming off as kind of classist tbh.
 

Deleted member 24540

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
1,599
This sounds terrible. I would want these things gone simply for the reason that they add nothing of actual value to games and belong in the list of predatory capitalistic practices, but the fact that these are designed to take advantage of the human mind and turn people into addicts is extra reason why they need to disappear.
 
Border

Border

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,859
Clusterdreams said:
The research shows a direct link and you're trying to downplay it because over "average" amounts that in and of themselves pile up? You're point is coming off as kind of classist tbh.
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The research shows a correlative relationship lootboxes and problem gambling. You don't even need to read the study to see that Zendle says there is no causal link or relationship - it is right there in the PC Gamer article.
 
Haze

Haze

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,825
Detroit, MI
Border said:
The research shows a correlative relationship lootboxes and problem gambling. You don't even need to read the study to see that Zendle says there is no causal link or relationship - it is right there in the PC Gamer article.
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"Dr. David Zendle said there's a clear connection between loot boxes and problem gambling that must not be trivialized."
 
Arebours

Arebours

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,656
I never understood why people felt the need to link loot boxes to money gambling(and dismissing concerns when that link want strong enough). If you are addicted to loot boxes then why would you care about going to the casino and why does that need to happen to prove the point that these things are bad? Loot boxes are just as bad, no actually even worse than "real" gambling because at least the latter is honest about what it is.

The people in here who feels like this article exonerates loot boxes because of missing links to problem gambling are completely missing the point.
 
Haze

Haze

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,825
Detroit, MI
Arebours said:
I never understood why people felt the need to link loot boxes to money gambling(and dismissing concerns when that link want strong enough). If you are addicted to loot boxes then why would you care about going to the casino and why does that need to happen to prove the point that these things are bad? Loot boxes are just as bad, no actually even worse than "real" gambling because at least the latter is honest about what it is.

The people in here who feels like this article exonerates loot boxes because of the missing link to problem gambling are completely missing the point.
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This study was done mostly to replicate the already noted link between lootboxes and "real" gambling and that those with previous gambling addictions are likely to spend more and find themselves in the pitfalls of that spending pattern again.

It sort of goes in hand with the advent of "whaling" in that these companies want everyone to purchase but they know there is a very small minority of people who will spend ludicrous amounts of money on content that has almost no overhead cost.
 
Arebours

Arebours

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,656
Clusterdreams said:
This study was done mostly to replicate the already noted link between lootboxes and "real" gambling and that those with previous gambling addictions are likely to spend more and find themselves in the pitfalls of that spending pattern again.

It sort of goes in hand with the advent of "whaling" in that these companies want everyone to purchase but they know there is a very small minority of people who will spend ludicrous amounts of money on content that has almost no overhead cost.
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I get that I meant more in the public eye like here at era. There seems to be a sentiment that unless loot boxes leads to people going to casinos and throwing away all their money, it's not a big deal. That's missing the point that loot boxes are made to facilitate that exact behavior to begin with.
 
Border

Border

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,859
Clusterdreams said:
"Dr. David Zendle said there's a clear connection between loot boxes and problem gambling that must not be trivialized."
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"Connection" or "link" does not mean a causal relationship though. It's just a bum way that people try to imply a stronger more conclusive relationship than what data actually shows.

From the article:
"The question of whether loot boxes are a gateway into other forms of problem gambling, or if people who have gambling problems to start with are naturally drawn to loot boxes, remains unanswered, and it could work both ways."
"Zendle acknowledged that the causal relationship between the two isn't clear,"

From the actual research paper:
"It is important to note that the overall relationship between problem gambling
and loot box spending that was observed is of small-to-medium size. This
suggests that the relationship between problem gambling and loot box spending
may be comparable in strength to the relationship between problem gambling
and known risk factors in the gambling literature. For instance, the relationship
between problem gambling and current alcohol dependence is estimated at
approximately η= 0.0625 (equivalent Cohen's d = 0.516)."
 
Haze

Haze

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,825
Detroit, MI
Border said:
"Connection" or "link" does not mean a causal relationship though. It's just a bum way that people try to imply a stronger more conclusive relationship than what data actually shows.

From the article:
"The question of whether loot boxes are a gateway into other forms of problem gambling, or if people who have gambling problems to start with are naturally drawn to loot boxes, remains unanswered, and it could work both ways."
"Zendle acknowledged that the causal relationship between the two isn't clear,"

From the actual research paper:
"It is important to note that the overall relationship between problem gambling
and loot box spending that was observed is of small-to-medium size. This
suggests that the relationship between problem gambling and loot box spending
may be comparable in strength to the relationship between problem gambling
and known risk factors in the gambling literature. For instance, the relationship
between problem gambling and current alcohol dependence is estimated at
approximately η= 0.0625 (equivalent Cohen's d = 0.516)."
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Also from the paper

"If this is the case, the presence of loot boxes in video games would not be
creating a 'breeding ground' for problem gambling. They would instead be
providing an opportunity for games companies to exploit serious pre-existing
psychological problems amongst their customers for massive monetary gains.
The correlational nature of this study makes it impossible to determine which of
these pictures of the efects of loot boxes is true."
 
Border

Border

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,859
Clusterdreams said:
Also from the paper

"If this is the case, the presence of loot boxes in video games would not be
creating a 'breeding ground' for problem gambling. They would instead be
providing an opportunity for games companies to exploit serious pre-existing
psychological problems amongst their customers for massive monetary gains.
The correlational nature of this study makes it impossible to determine which of
these pictures of the efects of loot boxes is true."
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That is the author's own rhetoric though — not any kind of inference based on research or analysis. It's kind of hard to take the research seriously when it's full of such flagrant editorializing, but I hold my tongue on that for the most part.

The rhetoric isn't all that solid though. Problem Gambling is also correlated with large DLC expenditures - does that mean that DLC also exploits gamblers? Problem gambling is correlated with alcohol dependence - are bars and alcohol manufacturers also exploiting gamblers? Assigning culpability based on correlation is probably a bridge too far.
 
Dr. Mario

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,929
Netherlands
SephLuis said:
I swear, in every thread...
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Oh boy you sure showed me!

In contrast to baseball cards, lootboxes:
  • Have a higher rate of play - So ? I imagine a person can buy as many baseball/TCG packs as he's available too.
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No that's not what higher rate of play means.
  • Have audiovisually stimulating jackpot effects -
  • Provide near misses - Which is ? Not getting what you want ? You know how rates work ?
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No that's not what a near miss means.
  • Can be adjusted before opening -
  • Can be adjusted based on prior purchases - You know this can also be applied to anything that involves luck right ? And you know how RNG in PCs work ?
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No, luck cannot be adjusted, and yes RNGs have a seed and a range and the outcome success criterion is not an RNG, and these can all be adjusted on the fly based on whether you had success with previous purchases, which is common practice in games, and impossible in baseball cards.
  • Lack oversight in rate of purchase
  • Lack oversight in age of buyer - because a ESRB rating, a warning and the need of a CC weren't enough....
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No they aren't, especially because the ESRB rating doesn't change, the warning is not issued and the CC ownership is not verified.
  • Are infinite
  • Are not a zero-sum game
  • Cannot be bought separately - Depends on the game
  • Cannot be traded - Depends on the game
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You know you could have said "depends on the game" on every single bullet point and your smugness would not have highlighted that you haven't particularly educated yourself. But the purpose of the list was not how every single lootbox implementation was different from every single baseball card implementation, but how lootboxes can be different. FYI official trading of lootbox contents is often nixed precisely because it could trigger gambling regulations in multiple countries.
 
SapientWolf

SapientWolf

Member
Nov 6, 2017
6,565
Border said:

His own study concludes that the average monthly loot box expenditures among "Problem Gamblers" was $16-$60. That is killing people financially? Sixty dollars a month is "life or death"?
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Gold Arsene said:
For some people believe it or not yes.

But hey continue to blow off gambling addiction.
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"A matter of life or death" seems unnecessarily alarmist. Especially when considering that the average debt of the compulsive gambler is north of $50,000. I sincerely doubt that a loot box spend of $16-$60 a month is in the same category of existential threat.
 
Border

Border

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,859
SapientWolf said:
"A matter of life or death" seems unnecessarily alarmist. Especially when considering that the average debt of the compulsive gambler is north of $50,000. I sincerely doubt that a loot box spend of $16-$60 a month is in the same category of existential threat.
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Yeah that also struck me — $60 is pretty much nothing to someone with a legit gambling problem. If that's the extent of what they spend on loot boxes, that is a pretty good indication that they are spending most of their money elsewhere on games and bets that that actually offer cash payout.

And that's just generously examining the high end of a conspicuously large confidence interval. It's entirely possible that average spend is closer to $20-30. In either case it's difficult to make a case that loot boxes are having some kind of huge negative effect even on the people most likely to want to abuse them. "Life or death"this is not.
 
SephLuis

SephLuis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,343
Dr. Mario said:
Oh boy you sure showed me!


No that's not what higher rate of play means.

No that's not what a near miss means.

No, luck cannot be adjusted, and yes RNGs have a seed and a range and the outcome success criterion is not an RNG, and these can all be adjusted on the fly based on whether you had success with previous purchases, which is common practice in games, and impossible in baseball cards.

No they aren't, especially because the ESRB rating doesn't change, the warning is not issued and the CC ownership is not verified.

You know you could have said "depends on the game" on every single bullet point and your smugness would not have highlighted that you haven't particularly educated yourself. But the purpose of the list was not how every single lootbox implementation was different from every single baseball card implementation, but how lootboxes can be different. FYI official trading of lootbox contents is often nixed precisely because it could trigger gambling regulations in multiple countries.
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Enlighten us to the meanings then.

Also, you do know that rates of physical products can also be changed, right ? It depends a lot if you trust the maker, but they can choose to bypass that and make a card extra rare.

Warnings are issues in a lot of games, right at the start. Consult an adult if purchasing inside the game. But, as you did, its ignored.

Also, trades can be done, but usually not between players and no cash out system. You can't trade for cash, that's where the gambling regulations stopped (In multiple Europe countries btw)

You can trade with in game systems for your desired outcome. What it needs for that, depends on the game.
 
Acidote

Acidote

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,987
I wish we could start regulating them mildly with something like forcing every game with lootboxes be rated AO and monitorize it from there.
 
Dr. Mario

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,929
Netherlands
SephLuis said:
Enlighten us to the meanings then.
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Harris, A., & Griffiths, M. D. (2018). The impact of speed of play in gambling on psychological and behavioural factors: A critical review. Journal of gambling studies, 34(2), 393-412.

Chase, H. W., & Clark, L. (2010). Gambling severity predicts midbrain response to near-miss outcomes. Journal of Neuroscience, 30(18), 6180-6187.


Also, you do know that rates of physical products can also be changed, right ? It depends a lot if you trust the maker, but they can choose to bypass that and make a card extra rare.
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Yes they can and for the average trading card game it would probably take about a year for the new odds to fully propagate across the retail channels. But that's beside the point. The manufacturer has no idea what was in your previous pack, it doesn't know how long you went without a win. How many packs you buy on average. It can't space it out, or see which card you are still missing or which card you have been eyeing for some time, or offer you free packs or guaranteed wins just as they measure you becoming disengaged. There's no tailor made anything, only the complete set for the entire world.
Warnings are issues in a lot of games, right at the start. Consult an adult if purchasing inside the game. But, as you did, its ignored.
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Not according to the Dutch Gaming Authority who presumably knows a thing or two about proper gambling warnings and investigated it.

 
SephLuis

SephLuis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,343
Dr. Mario said:
Harris, A., & Griffiths, M. D. (2018). The impact of speed of play in gambling on psychological and behavioural factors: A critical review. Journal of gambling studies, 34(2), 393-412.

Chase, H. W., & Clark, L. (2010). Gambling severity predicts midbrain response to near-miss outcomes. Journal of Neuroscience, 30(18), 6180-6187.


Regarding near-misses, which was what I think it was odd about the previous post, it's certainly uncommon. I certainly never seen a game which emulates that like a slot machine does.
That being said, I don't also consider you getting a rare item, just not the one you want it, as a near-miss either.
I'll read the paper later.


Yes they can and for the average trading card game it would probably take about a year for the new odds to fully propagate across the retail channels. But that's beside the point. The manufacturer has no idea what was in your previous pack, it doesn't know how long you went without a win. How many packs you buy on average. It can't space it out, or see which card you are still missing or which card you have been eyeing for some time, or offer you free packs or guaranteed wins just as they measure you becoming disengaged. There's no tailor made anything, only the complete set for the entire world.

As a lot of your previous complaints, depends if you trust the maker or not. Computer based RNG depends on the previous outcome for starters.
Digital based games also allow for players to play for free (and get very, very far) due to those strategies of giving players currency, free cards/units, which aren't present in the physical game. They can keep players engaged and, honestly, that's not a bad thing if the game is good. A lot of them also are capping spending (either by step up mechanics or change that specific item/unit within the game for a resource that is not always paid).

Not according to the Dutch Gaming Authority who presumably knows a thing or two about proper gambling warnings and investigated it.


And the England one ended up with a different result.
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Bolded
 
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