Predict how much Rage 2 will sell (retail) in its first week in the UK

  • Below 20,000 units

    Votes: 52 39.4%
  • Between 20,000 - 35,000 units

    Votes: 58 43.9%
  • Between 35,000 - 50,000 units

    Votes: 18 13.6%
  • Over 50,000 units

    Votes: 4 3.0%

  • Total voters
    132
  • Poll closed .

El Manco

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,145
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 18, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (01) PS4 Days Gone - 12.000 / 38.600
02 (06) NSW Mario Kart 8 DX - 4000 / 371.000
03 (02) PS4 FIFA 19 - 2600 / 629.900
04 (NE) NSW Final Fantasy XII The Zodiac Age - 2000 / NEW
05 (04) PS4 Grand Theft Auto V - 2000 / 919.200
06 (05) PS4 Spider-Man - 1900 / 294.300
07 (08) NSW Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 1600 / 135.600
08 (02) PS4 Mortal Kombat 11 - 1600 / 8000
Vandal.net announced they have now digital sales data.
Days Gone has 21% digital ratio, while PS4 Mortal Kombat 11 digital ratio is 22%.
So, these are the totals after two weeks (retail + digital).
Days Gone: 48,860
Mortal Kombat 11 PS4: 10,250

Other digital ratios: God of War - 19%, Mortal Kombat 11 XB1 - 29%, Mortal Kombat 11 PC - 97%, The Division 2 PS4 - 37%, The Division 2 XB1 - 46%.
In the podcast of Vandal they said God of War and The Division 2 are the extremes with the data they have now. Average could be between 21% and 24%.
Edit: corrected the digital ratio of The Division 2 XB1, it is 46%, not 36%.
 
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ArmGunar

PlayStatistician
Member
Oct 30, 2017
6,527
Vandal.net announced they have now digital sales data.
Days Gone has 21% digital ratio, while PS4 Mortal Kombat 11 digital ratio is 22%.
So, these are the totals after two weeks (retail + digital).
Days Gone: 48,860
Mortal Kombat 11 PS4: 10,250

Other digital ratios: God of War - 19%, Mortal Kombat 11 XB1 - 29%, Mortal Kombat 11 PC - 97%, The Division 2 PS4 - 37%, The Division 2 XB1 - 36%.
In the podcast of Vandal they said God of War and The Division 2 are the extremes with the data they have now. Average could be between 21% and 24%.
Thanks for this, very interesting !
Updated Days Gone numbers with digital Loudninja ;)
 

El Manco

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,145
Does anyone know the digital ratio of God of War in UK or US? The way they presented the numbers in the podcast hints at digital ratios in Spain being low compared to other countries.
 

Jade1962

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,274
Vandal.net announced they have now digital sales data.
Days Gone has 21% digital ratio, while PS4 Mortal Kombat 11 digital ratio is 22%.
So, these are the totals after two weeks (retail + digital).
Days Gone: 48,860
Mortal Kombat 11 PS4: 10,250

Other digital ratios: God of War - 19%, Mortal Kombat 11 XB1 - 29%, Mortal Kombat 11 PC - 97%, The Division 2 PS4 - 37%, The Division 2 XB1 - 36%.
In the podcast of Vandal they said God of War and The Division 2 are the extremes with the data they have now. Average could be between 21% and 24%.

Interesting that MK11 didn't skew much differently in digital share from DG as expected due to multiplayer vs single player. I suspect most MK players play local co-op or single player.


Also PS4 and X1 digital shares are about the same for the games shown. I would of expected the X1 to be greater especially in Spain with such a small hardcore userbase.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
That FIFA 19 Switch numbers is quite remarkable considering the game debuted at 8k on Switch. That's almost a tenfold increase over its first week performance. Anyone have numbers for how that stacks up to the XB1 version (which debuted at 14k) and the PS4 version (which debuted at 210k)?

The Switch version probabily sold more than the XBO version considering the situation of Xbox one in Spain.
 

Loudninja

Member
Oct 27, 2017
42,316
Vandal.net announced they have now digital sales data.
Days Gone has 21% digital ratio, while PS4 Mortal Kombat 11 digital ratio is 22%.
So, these are the totals after two weeks (retail + digital).
Days Gone: 48,860
Mortal Kombat 11 PS4: 10,250

Other digital ratios: God of War - 19%, Mortal Kombat 11 XB1 - 29%, Mortal Kombat 11 PC - 97%, The Division 2 PS4 - 37%, The Division 2 XB1 - 46%.
In the podcast of Vandal they said God of War and The Division 2 are the extremes with the data they have now. Average could be between 21% and 24%.
Edit: corrected the digital ratio of The Division 2 XB1, it is 46%, not 36%.
Fantastic sales for Days Gone In Spain.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Do have a chart showing this?
I didn't forget you :p

So here is a chart of the top 10 games that released in 2018 :

  1. FIFA 19 (PS4) : 629 000
  2. Red Dead Redemption 2 (PS4) : 407 000
  3. Spiderman : 294 300
  4. Call of Duty Black Ops 4 (PS4) : 249 000
  5. Pokemon Let's Go : 189 000+
  6. God of War : 186 000+
  7. Super Smash Bros Ultimate : 135 600
  8. Assassin's Creed Odyssey : 104 000
  9. FIFA 19 (NSW) : 77 000
  10. NBA 2K19 (PS4) :70 500

    *it is possible that the chart isn't 100% accurate since some games didn't get an update for quite some time

    I archieved 57 SKUs last year, games that usually crossed 1000 on their first week but I am missing a significant amount of smaller games.

    So FIFA 19 (NSW) is the #9 best selling 2018 SKU, it is doing better than 84% of the SKUs that sold above 1k first week, meaning that my estimate of 90-95% of all games released that year was pretty much spot on.
 

Jade1962

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,274
I didn't forget you :p

So here is a chart of the top 10 games that released in 2018 :

  1. FIFA 19 (PS4) : 629 000
  2. Red Dead Redemption 2 (PS4) : 407 000
  3. Spiderman : 294 300
  4. Call of Duty Black Ops 4 (PS4) : 249 000
  5. Pokemon Let's Go : 189 000+
  6. God of War : 186 000+
  7. Super Smash Bros Ultimate : 135 600
  8. Assassin's Creed Odyssey : 104 000
  9. FIFA 19 (NSW) : 77 000
  10. NBA 2K19 (PS4) :70 500

    *it is possible that the chart isn't 100% accurate since some games didn't get an update for quite some time

    I archieved 57 SKUs last year, games that usually crossed 1000 on their first week but I am missing a significant amount of smaller games.

    So FIFA 19 (NSW) is the #9 best selling 2018 SKU, it is doing better than 84% of the SKUs that sold above 1k first week, meaning that my estimate of 90-95% of all games released that year was pretty much spot on.

No worries. Thanks for the effort. Crazy the drop off from the top 2 games.
 

El Manco

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,145
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 19, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (06) Spider-Man PS4 - 4300 / 298.600
02 (01) Days Gone PS4 - 3700 / 42.300
03 (02) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Switch - 3500 / 374.500
04 (--) Super Mario Party Switch - 2200 / 72.000
05 (05) Grand Theft Auto V PS4 - 2000 / 921.200
06 (--) Super Mario Odyssey Switch - 1700 / 349.900
07 (NE) Mortal Kombat 11 Switch - 1500 / NEW
08 (03) FIFA 19 PS4 - 1500 / 631.400
09 (07) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch - 1400 / 137.000
10 (--) Minecraft Switch - 1200 / 15.600

Hardware
Switch
: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800

Spain Sales, Week 18
Spain Sales - Vandal.net: Archive
 
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Rellik

Member
Oct 28, 2017
719
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 19, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (06) Spider-Man PS4 - 4300 / 298.600
02 (01) Days Gone PS4 - 3700 / 42.300
03 (02) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Switch - 3500 / 374.500
04 (--) Super Mario Party Switch - 2200 / 72.000
05 (05) Grand Theft Auto V PS4 - 2000 / 921.200
06 (--) Super Mario Odyssey Switch - 1700 / 349.900
07 (NE) Mortal Kombat 11 Switch - 1500 / NEW
08 (03) FIFA 19 PS4 - 1500 / 631.400
09 (07) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch - 1400 / 137.000
10 (--) Minecraft Switch - 1200 / 15.600

Hardware
Switch
: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800

Yep, comunión in full effect.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 19, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (06) Spider-Man PS4 - 4300 / 298.600
02 (01) Days Gone PS4 - 3700 / 42.300
03 (02) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Switch - 3500 / 374.500
04 (--) Super Mario Party Switch - 2200 / 72.000
05 (05) Grand Theft Auto V PS4 - 2000 / 921.200
06 (--) Super Mario Odyssey Switch - 1700 / 349.900
07 (NE) Mortal Kombat 11 Switch - 1500 / NEW
08 (03) FIFA 19 PS4 - 1500 / 631.400
09 (07) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch - 1400 / 137.000
10 (--) Minecraft Switch - 1200 / 15.600

Hardware
Switch
: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800
That's a great debut for MK11 on Switch. XB1 did 850, PS4 6400 FW
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 19, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (06) Spider-Man PS4 - 4300 / 298.600
02 (01) Days Gone PS4 - 3700 / 42.300
03 (02) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Switch - 3500 / 374.500
04 (--) Super Mario Party Switch - 2200 / 72.000
05 (05) Grand Theft Auto V PS4 - 2000 / 921.200
06 (--) Super Mario Odyssey Switch - 1700 / 349.900
07 (NE) Mortal Kombat 11 Switch - 1500 / NEW
08 (03) FIFA 19 PS4 - 1500 / 631.400
09 (07) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch - 1400 / 137.000
10 (--) Minecraft Switch - 1200 / 15.600

Hardware
Switch
: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800
Nice increase for Spider-Man, some updated numbers would be nice Sony.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 19, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (06) Spider-Man PS4 - 4300 / 298.600
02 (01) Days Gone PS4 - 3700 / 42.300
03 (02) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Switch - 3500 / 374.500
04 (--) Super Mario Party Switch - 2200 / 72.000
05 (05) Grand Theft Auto V PS4 - 2000 / 921.200
06 (--) Super Mario Odyssey Switch - 1700 / 349.900
07 (NE) Mortal Kombat 11 Switch - 1500 / NEW
08 (03) FIFA 19 PS4 - 1500 / 631.400
09 (07) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch - 1400 / 137.000
10 (--) Minecraft Switch - 1200 / 15.600

Hardware
Switch
: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800

Yoh Switch calm the fuck down lmao
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 19, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (06) Spider-Man PS4 - 4300 / 298.600
02 (01) Days Gone PS4 - 3700 / 42.300
03 (02) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Switch - 3500 / 374.500
04 (--) Super Mario Party Switch - 2200 / 72.000
05 (05) Grand Theft Auto V PS4 - 2000 / 921.200
06 (--) Super Mario Odyssey Switch - 1700 / 349.900
07 (NE) Mortal Kombat 11 Switch - 1500 / NEW
08 (03) FIFA 19 PS4 - 1500 / 631.400
09 (07) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch - 1400 / 137.000
10 (--) Minecraft Switch - 1200 / 15.600

Hardware
Switch
: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800
Finally an update on Super Mario Party :)

So that gives us,

Switch top 10 :

  1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe : 374 500
  2. Super Mario Odyssey : 349 000
  3. Zelda Breath of the Wild : 258 000+
  4. Pokemon Let's Go : 189 000+
  5. Splatoon 2 : unknown LTD but 80k in 2018 alone
  6. Super Smash Bros Ultimate : 137 000
  7. Mario + Rabbids : unknown LTD but was at 65k during week 15,2018.
  8. FIFA 19 : 77 000
  9. Super Mario Party : 72 000
  10. Donkey Kong Country : Tropical Freeze : 57 000+
 

tolkir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,256
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 19, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (06) Spider-Man PS4 - 4300 / 298.600
02 (01) Days Gone PS4 - 3700 / 42.300
03 (02) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Switch - 3500 / 374.500
04 (--) Super Mario Party Switch - 2200 / 72.000
05 (05) Grand Theft Auto V PS4 - 2000 / 921.200
06 (--) Super Mario Odyssey Switch - 1700 / 349.900
07 (NE) Mortal Kombat 11 Switch - 1500 / NEW
08 (03) FIFA 19 PS4 - 1500 / 631.400
09 (07) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch - 1400 / 137.000
10 (--) Minecraft Switch - 1200 / 15.600

Hardware
Switch
: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800

Nothing better than celebrating a comunión playing Mortal Kombat.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I've compiled the hardware numbers for Spain (thanks to El Manco, tolkir and others for writing them up every week!). Note that numbers started in week 7, and week 8 is missing. That said, here's the result:

Total of the year (note that not all weeks of the year are included!):
Switch = 51,400
PS4 = 43,900
XB1 = 7,790

Weekly numbers:
Code:
Week 7:
PS4: 3,600
NSW: 2,900
XBO: 450

Week 9:
PS4: 3,700
NSW: 2,500
XBO: 350

Week 10:
NSW: 3,200
PS4: 2,900
XBO: 390

Week 11:
PS4: 3,050
NSW: 2,650
XBO: 550

Week 12:
PS4: 3,150
NSW: 2,900
XBO: 600

Week 13:
NSW: 3 000
PS4: 2 500
XBO: 1 500

Week 14:
PS4: 3,900
NSW: 3,000
XBO: 1,200

Week 15:
PS4: 4,200
NSW: 3,400
XBO: 400

Week 16:
NSW: 4,600
PS4: 3,500
XBO: 400

Week 17:
NSW: 4,500
PS4: 4,000
XBO: 550

Week 18:
Switch: 7050
PS4: 3400
Xbox One: 600

Week 19:
Switch: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800

I will try to add to this list every week, for as long as we get hardware data from Vandal.net.
 

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
I've compiled the hardware numbers for Spain (thanks to El Manco, tolkir and others for writing them up every week!). Note that numbers started in week 7, and week 8 is missing. That said, here's the result:

Total of the year (note that not all weeks of the year are included!):
Switch = 51,400
PS4 = 43,900
XB1 = 7,790

Weekly numbers:
Code:
Week 7:
PS4: 3,600
NSW: 2,900
XBO: 450

Week 9:
PS4: 3,700
NSW: 2,500
XBO: 350

Week 10:
NSW: 3,200
PS4: 2,900
XBO: 390

Week 11:
PS4: 3,050
NSW: 2,650
XBO: 550

Week 12:
PS4: 3,150
NSW: 2,900
XBO: 600

Week 13:
NSW: 3 000
PS4: 2 500
XBO: 1 500

Week 14:
PS4: 3,900
NSW: 3,000
XBO: 1,200

Week 15:
PS4: 4,200
NSW: 3,400
XBO: 400

Week 16:
NSW: 4,600
PS4: 3,500
XBO: 400

Week 17:
NSW: 4,500
PS4: 4,000
XBO: 550

Week 18:
Switch: 7050
PS4: 3400
Xbox One: 600

Week 19:
Switch: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800

I will try to add to this list every week, for as long as we get hardware data from Vandal.net.

Thanks for compiling this up!
 

Golvellius

Banned
Dec 3, 2017
1,304
elumVdB.png

Spain:
Week 19, 2019 - Individual Formats Retail (Units) (Source: Vandal.net)


01 (06) Spider-Man PS4 - 4300 / 298.600
02 (01) Days Gone PS4 - 3700 / 42.300
03 (02) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Switch - 3500 / 374.500
04 (--) Super Mario Party Switch - 2200 / 72.000
05 (05) Grand Theft Auto V PS4 - 2000 / 921.200
06 (--) Super Mario Odyssey Switch - 1700 / 349.900
07 (NE) Mortal Kombat 11 Switch - 1500 / NEW
08 (03) FIFA 19 PS4 - 1500 / 631.400
09 (07) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Switch - 1400 / 137.000
10 (--) Minecraft Switch - 1200 / 15.600

Hardware
Switch
: 12.000
PS4: 6.000
Xbox One: 800
Impressive Switch performance - during Wii U days this list would have looked vastly different.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,580
I didn't forget you :p

So here is a chart of the top 10 games that released in 2018 :

  1. FIFA 19 (PS4) : 629 000
  2. Red Dead Redemption 2 (PS4) : 407 000
  3. Spiderman : 294 300
  4. Call of Duty Black Ops 4 (PS4) : 249 000
  5. Pokemon Let's Go : 189 000+
  6. God of War : 186 000+
  7. Super Smash Bros Ultimate : 135 600
  8. Assassin's Creed Odyssey : 104 000
  9. FIFA 19 (NSW) : 77 000
  10. NBA 2K19 (PS4) :70 500

    *it is possible that the chart isn't 100% accurate since some games didn't get an update for quite some time

    I archieved 57 SKUs last year, games that usually crossed 1000 on their first week but I am missing a significant amount of smaller games.

    So FIFA 19 (NSW) is the #9 best selling 2018 SKU, it is doing better than 84% of the SKUs that sold above 1k first week, meaning that my estimate of 90-95% of all games released that year was pretty much spot on.

Something seems off. According to the numbers posted this week Smash Ultimate is at 137k. In your list it's at 135k. It's difficult to believe in 4.5 months smash sold only 2k units. Someone has the wrong information here.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Something seems off. According to the numbers posted this week Smash Ultimate is at 137k. In your list it's at 135k. It's difficult to believe in 4.5 months smash sold only 2k units. Someone has the wrong information here.
I believe he's listing games released in 2018 with ongoing sales up to the last data point available (which for Smash probably was up to week 18 of 2019, at least until the week 19 data arrived). The 1,400 units from week 19 add up to 137k, as expected.
 
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Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Something seems off. According to the numbers posted this week Smash Ultimate is at 137k. In your list it's at 135k. It's difficult to believe in 4.5 months smash sold only 2k units. Someone has the wrong information here.
Those were LTD figures of games that released in 2018, not the top best selling games of 2018.
 

El Manco

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,145
Those were LTD figures of games that released in 2018, not the top best selling games of 2018.
Hi, I think adding last dates (year and week) when numbers were updated will make list easier to understand.
For example, I imagine games like NBA 2K19 have not been updated in recent months.
 
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Spiegel

Member
Oct 26, 2017
420
so there's a holiday called comunion that forces people to buy nintendo stuff. wow

No, it's the religious christian celebration where kids aged 8-9 do the comunion and because of that they get presents from family and friends. Kids of that age are a bigger part of the Nintendo audience compared to other consoles and that's why portables/Nintendo always have huge increases.

Also Nintendo always increases marketing expenses here around these dates.
 
OP
OP
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

PAL Charts Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
956
Those that voted below 20,000 units for Rage 2 are the winners of the poll.
 

-girgosz-

Member
Aug 16, 2018
1,042
Those that voted below 20,000 units for Rage 2 are the winners of the poll.

I "won" I guess. Doesn't feel rewarding. I remember when Dishonored 2 did around 50k and Wolf 2 around 30k and everybody screamed flop. Looks like it's only getting worse. There are barely any games hitting 100k anymore. Big games like MK11 and Sekiro can't even hit 50k...
 

kadotsu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,508
When your company has a pattern of fast price drops and mediocre post launch content then games that aren't critical juggernauts tend to flop like this. It also doesn't help that almost all Zenimax games are FPSs or FPS adjacent.
 

asd202

Enlightened
Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,744
I "won" I guess. Doesn't feel rewarding. I remember when Dishonored 2 did around 50k and Wolf 2 around 30k and everybody screamed flop. Looks like it's only getting worse. There are barely any games hitting 100k anymore. Big games like MK11 and Sekiro can't even hit 50k...

Well digital is taking part of the sales but yeah.