Nintendo: "Hold my Joycon"
I think 30m in a year might be out of reach but with Labo Nintendo are showing they're willing to play some wildcards, and they're already being super successful.
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One year later, betting time: will the Nintendo Switch sell over 100 million?
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
- Start date
Nintendo: "Hold my Joycon"
I think 30m in a year might be out of reach but with Labo Nintendo are showing they're willing to play some wildcards, and they're already being super successful.
Yeah that would be DS levels, but I think those are actually achievable even today. It would be a monumental achievement but the Switch has already shown some insanely impressive demand, and I can only imagine how that demand might increase with a price cut, potentially eventually to $200, and an HD mainline Pokemon.
Once it's that low families will be buying multiple Switches per household, so it's a whole different dynamic from traditional home consoles.
Yeah that would match the best year of the DS, which I'm not sure I see in the cards for the Switch. A few years in the 20+ range is perfectly reasonable though.
Power doesn't really mean anything in terms of sales. The SNES shat on the Mega Drive specs-wise but the MD outsold the SNES 2:1 in the UK. The DS destroyed the PSP, the PS2 steamrolled its competitors despite having the worst graphics of the three and the Wii held its own against the PS360 pretty well. The PS5 could have real-life graphics, it hardly matters. The software makes the hardware.
I voted no, because switch doesn't have the fad factor of the wii. Not doing the wii down by any means, but switch won't have the non gamers buying one like they did wii balance boards.
I think this is better for the switch platform overall. There's more to GOAT than sales
I think this is better for the switch platform overall. There's more to GOAT than sales
OP
OP
The SNES example isn't the best one, since the SNES outsold the Genesis anyway.
As the heir to both Nintendo home consoles and handhelds, it benefits from having what used to be a split pool of franchises. At this point it's hard to see why it won't sell 100 million worldwide.
If they do a mid-gen refresh + keep marketing well + keep a balance of hardcore "event" games coming ... yes.
Switch is different from the Wii in that it's a not a "craze" that being driven by non-traditional games. But they key to riding this wave is to keep executing strategy for the system (marketing, release dates, developer deals, etc) at a high level. It's a less "glamorous" way of doing things but it can give you the same net result.
A home run is a great thing, but a well placed base hit that gets all players on base to home plate has the same net effect.
Switch is different from the Wii in that it's a not a "craze" that being driven by non-traditional games. But they key to riding this wave is to keep executing strategy for the system (marketing, release dates, developer deals, etc) at a high level. It's a less "glamorous" way of doing things but it can give you the same net result.
A home run is a great thing, but a well placed base hit that gets all players on base to home plate has the same net effect.
I think depending on the slate of games and such, it definitely has the potential. But i think the more pertinent question is, will Nintendo retire it for the next thing before that can happen. I think Switch's momentum will continue to be pretty strong, even if it tapers off from the absolute hysteria of sold out of the first year, so i won't bet on anything beyond that
I think they will need a couple of remodels for people to double-dip.
Regardless, I don't think it's completely off the table. If they keep the stream of games coming it's possible.
Plus, we have no idea how Nintendo will be once they consolidate their footing on its new ventures: mobile, theme park, media, etc.
Regardless, I don't think it's completely off the table. If they keep the stream of games coming it's possible.
Plus, we have no idea how Nintendo will be once they consolidate their footing on its new ventures: mobile, theme park, media, etc.
The 3DS is over 70 million and still going and Switch is looking a lot healthier than 3DS did in 2011.
I picked up a WiiU two years ago and never cared much for it, i picked up a Switch this week and i can already tell this will get much more use from me and my kids, it's a great little system.
Wii U + 3DS lifetime sales is well under 100M.
I still think the Switch suffers from a lot of problems. Poor online multiplayer. Not a lot of third party support outside of Indies, old ports, and Doom.
50M is probably a safe bet just from core Nintendo fans. But I think 100M is a stretch.
The other thing is that about 60% of all 3DS hardware was sold before Jan 1, 2014.
I think mobile gaming has changed a lot in the last 4 years.
I voted "Yes" but I don't think it's a sure thing, by any means. So many variables will affect this - how long will the life cycle be? Do they refresh the hardware and, if so, when? What other additions will they introduce, like Labo? When the Online service launches, how good is it? Do they eventually get going with a VC, specifically with GC games?
In an ideal world where they succeed on all these points, I think they can hit 100 million.
In an ideal world where they succeed on all these points, I think they can hit 100 million.
It's too early to tell. Likely depends on whether or not their "new play" initiatives like Labo connect well with a mainstream audience.
Right now, I'll go with a no. Switch is very successful and will remain successful, but I don't currently see it selling an average of 20 million units per year over the next 5 years.
Right now, I'll go with a no. Switch is very successful and will remain successful, but I don't currently see it selling an average of 20 million units per year over the next 5 years.
They'd have to really botch up their software and strategy to not keep a high level of momentum going forward. Their early 2018 kit is pretty ho-hum, but they were so on point in 2017 they needed to have a breather at some point. The back half of this year should be really interesting.
3DS owners may have grown out of gaming, may have graduated to other systems or may be satisfied with mobile or may just not see a Switch as what they want or need.
Switch is far more popular amongst traditional gaming demographics.
A big thing you aren't thinking about is price. 3DS got crazy cheap w/ 2DS and Sales. No way will Switch hit that price.
Kind of a weird thing to say considering the rest of your post lol. It didn't hold up pretty well to them, it outsold both of them
they have broken records with the switch, i really believe this system is going to set trends and records in sales.
And if that is where it stops I guarantee there will be people on here calling it a bust for petering out and not catching up to the Wii, PS1, PS2, DS, or GBC.
I could see it selling 50-60 million for sure, but 100M seems a bit of a stretch.
I'd be glad to see it happen though - Nintendo's earned it.
I'd be glad to see it happen though - Nintendo's earned it.
It doesn't have to. The Switch is performing better than the 3DS without receiving the major price cut the 3DS got early on. So as long as Nintendo does standard price cuts for the Switch, it'll casually outsell the 3DS, especially since it won't peak in it's first year like the 3DS did
It would have to come to a near dead halt sales-wise to peak at 50-60
Surprised to see so much optimism :). I'm still going with no but ~80 million, somewhat bigger than 3DS outside Japan, about the same inside Japan.
But maybe 90 million? or maybe 100 million? Idk. I'll say 80-100 but shy of 100 million is within my expectations, and 100 million is over them.
Less than whatever 3DS gets to between 70 and 80 million by the end of 2018 would be disappointing my expectations.
But maybe 90 million? or maybe 100 million? Idk. I'll say 80-100 but shy of 100 million is within my expectations, and 100 million is over them.
Less than whatever 3DS gets to between 70 and 80 million by the end of 2018 would be disappointing my expectations.
I don't think so. I think it'll start slowing down after this year. But it will likely get close, above 75 mil.
It doesn't have to since it provides way more perceived value for the regular customer than the regular 3DS ever did.
People will go nuts if the Switch ever hits 200 bucks during a Holiday season. Meanwhile we saw that price isn't everything with the lackluster 2DS performance.
The Switch is more attractive than the 3DS ever was - people seeing games like MK8D or Zelda running on this thing usually are quite impressed. It will be the same with games like GTA V or COD if they hit this year.
After 2018 is when we expect the first revision and mayor price drops... The likelihood of it having low sales in its 3rd years after having record breaking shipment numbers in its first two years is rather slow.
Hardly any system peaks that early, not even the Wii U peaked that quickly. Sales are only going to increase from here till it's 4th year or so, like most other successful systems
I've voted no, because I don't know how and if Nintendo will react when Sony and MS release their new consoles in a few years.
Nintendo says it's not competing with the others at all, but that's entirely true. They need to convince those gamers that they need the Switch (alongside their powerboxes if necessary). And they will need multiplatform titles. It's going to be a Wii situation if they can't get third parties to port their games without needing to overthrow everything.
Nintendo will need a Super Switch, or "New" Switch or whatever they'd call it, to keep up with third party demands. It shouldn't be a n3DS or NDSi situation where the hardware upgrade does nearly nothing. It should make difference like the current consoles are doing.
If they can release a Super Switch in late 2019 or 2020, then they can prolong the life of the Switch I think.
Without that, I think it will do a bit better than 3DS, around 80 million. But it has the potential to do Wii numbers.
Nintendo says it's not competing with the others at all, but that's entirely true. They need to convince those gamers that they need the Switch (alongside their powerboxes if necessary). And they will need multiplatform titles. It's going to be a Wii situation if they can't get third parties to port their games without needing to overthrow everything.
Nintendo will need a Super Switch, or "New" Switch or whatever they'd call it, to keep up with third party demands. It shouldn't be a n3DS or NDSi situation where the hardware upgrade does nearly nothing. It should make difference like the current consoles are doing.
If they can release a Super Switch in late 2019 or 2020, then they can prolong the life of the Switch I think.
Without that, I think it will do a bit better than 3DS, around 80 million. But it has the potential to do Wii numbers.
I think it will get really close but no. I'm expecting somewhere around 90 million. That said I wouldn't be surprised either way.
This is the one post I always remember from that thread.
On topic, yeah I think it will.
Something like this would be achievable:
FY18 (I'll include March from FY17): 18 million
FY19: 20 million
FY20 ($199 price drop): 24 million
FY21: 18 million
FY22 12 million
FY23 (Switch 2 released): 7 million
That gives me....99 million, and it will still ship a few million more after that obviously, so crossing 100 million.
I'm not willing to commit to that though. I think what the first year has shown us is that the Switch is obviously a big success. FY19 will show us just how big. If they forecast 20 million and then blow right by it again while still being at $299, 100 million is the minimum it will sell.
FY18 (I'll include March from FY17): 18 million
FY19: 20 million
FY20 ($199 price drop): 24 million
FY21: 18 million
FY22 12 million
FY23 (Switch 2 released): 7 million
That gives me....99 million, and it will still ship a few million more after that obviously, so crossing 100 million.
I'm not willing to commit to that though. I think what the first year has shown us is that the Switch is obviously a big success. FY19 will show us just how big. If they forecast 20 million and then blow right by it again while still being at $299, 100 million is the minimum it will sell.
the real challenge is, will it outsell the Nintendo PowerPC family of consoles?
you've got 21+101+13 = 135 million goal to reach. it's unlikely but who knows.
the Wii uses an overclocked variant of the GC's PowerPC-based processor and the Wii U uses a variant of the Wii processor that is 3 of them together to form a triple core processor that is overclocked even further.
you've got 21+101+13 = 135 million goal to reach. it's unlikely but who knows.
the Wii uses an overclocked variant of the GC's PowerPC-based processor and the Wii U uses a variant of the Wii processor that is 3 of them together to form a triple core processor that is overclocked even further.