We know that GaaS projects are appealing prospects for streaming service providers because of the way they entice consumers to remain subbed month after month. We've seen many (though not all) of Microsoft's franchises designed around this GaaS mold like Forza, Sea of Thieves, Grounded, Halo Infinite, and if rumors are true, Fable.
With that in mind, how do you think this will affect the way BethPub games are designed going forward? Will they mostly be allowed to retain their traditional self-contained structure, or will we see things like Elder Scrolls, Doom, Wolfenstein, etc. become living platforms that are meant to last for years on end?
Gamepass doesnt incentivize games to be designed a certain way. It's a collection of games that were designed for release outside of Gamepass.
I think your assumptions are all false. Gears, Forza and Halo were GaaS games long before Gamepass was conceived. Grounded was in development before MS acquired the studio. And Sea of Theives development predates Gamepass.
There are hundreds of games in Gamepass at any given time. Some are GaaS, most are not. There's no incentive to make a bunch of GaaS games to keep people subscribed. People stay subscribed because there's a large variety of content, and new content keeps arriving. When players are done with one game there are so many others to choose from that they are compelled to stick around.
Sure, MS wants people who like GaaS to see value in GP. They also want SP, story driven players on GP. They want local MP players on GP. They want fans of small indie games on GP. Fans of episodic games. Fighting games, sports games, platformers, etc...
The idea that its GaaS that keep players subbed to GP is nonsense. No matter what type of games motivate players to play, Gamepass has something to keep you around.
As such, the Bethesda games will continue on whatever development path the developers set out on. If the game is meant to be a live service, it will be. If it isnt, it wont be. There's no gamepas-related incentive to alter the design of a game towards live service. People have been making this argument for over 3 years and it's never come to fruition.
The notion that its GaaS that drives people to Gamepass doesnt even make sense on the surface. Nobody is going to pay $15 a month to play one game for years on end, when they can buy the game once and play it until the servers are cut off. Also, no one is going to subscribe to a service for its collection of GaaS games, because no one has time to invest in multiple GaaS games at once.