A successful console's sales grow over time. First and second year are always the weakest of a successful console. I know you know this...
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November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
A successful console's sales grow over time. First and second year are always the weakest of a successful console. I know you know this...
OP
OP
I think people are fine with the idea that PS4 and Switch are likely close in units. With PS4 actually being $100 less than Switch in BF week, it's entirely possible that he's correct by revenue but units end up with PS4 ahead. If that's the case, please don't try to rake him over the coals or something. If legit, he's just trying to help out and shouldn't be punished for doing so in an unexpected manner (revenue vs. units ranking).
The weakest years are the twilight years, not the first two.
Only "consoles" I can think of are 3DS and XBO.
3DS had a huge price cut year one, and XBO has gone like a rollercoaster (up and down, up and down)
A lot... People buy consoles based on what's out and what's out in the near future. You can't tell me people buying Switches in November have no interest in Smash.
Anyway it appears they do have big games already slated so it won't be down. As far as Sony goes the only one holding them back is themselves but putting profit over massive sells seems to be their game now as they rev up for PS5.
Considering it has a single November left before PS5 arrives that seems like a pretty safe bet
And not even. First, PS4 could win this November. Second, do we know what kind of deals Sony will have for Black Friday next year?
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Well I guess the 3DS wasn't a successful console
Or the Wii
Or maybe you just don't know what you're talking about
You can't think of any other consoles that sold better in their first couple of years than their later years? Really?
The PS2 and 360 might be exceptions both they were both plagued by major supply issues
The DS and PS1 are the only real outliers I can think of here
If Sony decides to make the PS4's price go back to 199 at any point next holidays, then we're cooking with gas.
Also, a 5 year old console going neck and neck with a two year old console, one which had two major titles/evergreens come out, is impressive.
Also, a 5 year old console going neck and neck with a two year old console, one which had two major titles/evergreens come out, is impressive.
If I recall, I feel the general consensus from insiders was:
Units, it was for PS4
And Revenue, it was for Switch.
(I could be wrong)
Units, it was for PS4
And Revenue, it was for Switch.
(I could be wrong)
Lifecycle sales highly depend on entry price. Platforms with a lower launch price tend to cluster high sales during early years while platforms with a higher price tend to have smoother lifecycles because they first rely on a more dedicated, and smaller, audience and then expand through price cuts. I mean, this is pretty much the standard rule in consumer electronics (even if things might get blurrier with revisions and different simultaneous versions targeted towards different audiences).
That's a fair analysis. Which the point is there's no possibility the Switch will be down yoy next November.
Not what I was even talking about and no that's not true either.
More like he/she can read sales data and see how 2nd and 3rd years of a console are usually the best. SW will most likely follow this.
I will literally eat a tablespoon of spaghetti sauce if this is true
And I hate spaghetti sauce
you meant Fish, right?
unless you are thinking the last years of the life spam. the 1st years are never as good as the mid life of the HW spam.
How should we value revenue vs units anyway? More money made from hardware vs potentially more people in your console's echo system?
you meant Fish, right?
unless you are thinking the last years of the life spam. the 1st years are never as good as the mid life of the HW spam.
PS3 sold almost 100M units but PS lost 6 -7 USD Billions.
on the long run as long as you are not going red, having more HW out is better cause higher user pool = more chances to sell more games.
I'm interested in your analysis on this. Wescoast stated that the 1st and 2nd years are usually the weakest years and your data indicates that peak years are typically in the mid to end of a console life. To me this suggests that Wescoast was on the right track but you have stated otherwise - what are your thoughts on this? Thanks for your insight.
It looks like in current gen (3DS --> One) system peak year happens generally earlier than in old gen (NDS --> PS3)
So, 2019 will be fantastic for Switch.
Basically Zhuge is saying even if it doesn't suggest Year 1/2 has the strongest peak year for a lot of platforms, it doesn't prove they are the weakest.
LOL Ice cold.
Meaning that the 1st and 2nd years tend to fall in the midrange of sales which would satisfy the condition of those not being the weakest years in sales.
How is that "ice cold"? Lol
Also the Vita was not a successful system and I wouldn't include it on the list. Neither was the WiiU and my Criteria was "successful consoles" so we can also throw out the 3ds, psp and DS. So the list should look like this.
360: 7th year
Wii: 3rd year
PS3: 6th year
PS4: 3rd year (So far)
One: 3rd year (So far)
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You've just moved the goalposts to an entirely different planet.
I'm actually surprised by a few of these.
1. Wii U - I know 3rd year had Smash and Mario Kart, but even still, I'm surprised it didn't peak in its first year like other unpopular consoles tend to do.
2. Insane that both Xbox 360 and PS3 peaked so late. Without looking up software, I would have expected PS3 to peak in 2009 with release of the Slim model. 360 makes sense though. Easy to forget how lucrative Kinect was.
Shouldn't DS be 5th year though? I thought it sold most both in the US and worldwide in 2009.
He said that is considering the launch year as year 1, so the 6th year of DS is indeed 2009.
About PS3, 2009 is very close to the peak year, like ~200k less.
Switch being #1 in revenue likely mean that the gap in units sold between it and PS4 is even shorter than what a lot of us expected.