So a couple of things:IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.covid19.healthdata.org
how accurate are these numbers? it was showing a total of 100k deaths a few days ago down to 80k on monday and 60k since today. That seems to be showing that the problem is getting smaller?
I read that the White House's original estimate of 100-240k dying was because they thought only 50% of Americans would adhere to social distancing, but now think that projection will be lower because 90% is adhering. One expert who advised the White House on the possible death count even said 40-150k. So that's good right?
Is there any indication that this virus can change the way influenza does? Or are the scientists confident that the vaccines they're working on will get the situation under control when its ready?
Not a chance. Not without mass testing and tracing, just not going to happen.
I mean office's workers. If you reopen offices you will need to reopen restaurants at least.What is regular work? Like all people that worked before will work the same way? Not possible. I can't see bars and clubs opening for instance. Retail with distancing sure. Shutdown of non-essential workplaces like in some countries like Spain and Italy will go for sure but we never had that nationwide in Germany.
An update on my uncle. It began with a fever, two days later hospitalisation. Two days later ICU. One day later on ventilator. Two days later in a medically induced coma. Two days later (last night) he developed a blod clot in his lungs. It's going very, very badly :-(
All of this began with attending a birthday party (all participants are sick now). So please, even though you want to see friends and family for Easter celebrations - DON'T.
DO not go to church.
Stay the fuck away from your grandparents!
Use facetime or other video related systems if you want to see your elderly relatives. Call them, text them, write them regular emails. But don't see them. They might be sad, you might be too. But it's better than losing them.
An update on my uncle. It began with a fever, two days later hospitalisation. Two days later ICU. One day later on ventilator. Two days later in a medically induced coma. Two days later (last night) he developed a blod clot in his lungs. It's going very, very badly :-(
All of this began with attending a birthday party (all participants are sick now). So please, even though you want to see friends and family for Easter celebrations - DON'T.
DO not go to church.
Stay the fuck away from your grandparents!
Use facetime or other video related systems if you want to see your elderly relatives. Call them, text them, write them regular emails. But don't see them. They might be sad, you might be too. But it's better than losing them.
I'm so sorry :(An update on my uncle. It began with a fever, two days later hospitalisation. Two days later ICU. One day later on ventilator. Two days later in a medically induced coma. Two days later (last night) he developed a blod clot in his lungs. It's going very, very badly :-(
All of this began with attending a birthday party (all participants are sick now). So please, even though you want to see friends and family for Easter celebrations - DON'T.
DO not go to church.
Stay the fuck away from your grandparents!
Use facetime or other video related systems if you want to see your elderly relatives. Call them, text them, write them regular emails. But don't see them. They might be sad, you might be too. But it's better than losing them.
Read it on CNN.Where did you read this? How is social distancing adherence being measured? Maybe in specific areas like NYC you might get close to 90% (a big maybe), but in the majority of the country right now? Hell no.
How many people were at that gather if you don't mind me asking?
I'm so sorry :(
And meanwhile my neighbors have their son his wife and grandchilds over, and they enjoy life in the garden eating cake, drinking coffee. Some will only understand how serious this shit is when one of them gets it and ends up in the hospital.
Fuck
They say not to lie on your back as it effects your lung function
youtube HwLzAdriec0
Thx, 2 questions :
1) how many times is 'repeat regularily'?
2) he says 'pillow in front of you' -> your head rests on the pillow i assume, but in what way?
Yeah but I don't think countries will be so cautious. 6 countries are trying to go out of lockdown after Easter in Europe. Spain's president said April 26 Spain will be out. Let's be honest countries are desperate to restart economy even if that means more deaths.
Testing in Denmark has showed the following regarding infection distances:
Breath/talking: up to 2 metres (6 feet)
Coughing: Up to 6 metres (18 feet)
Sneezing: Up to 8-9 metres (24-26 feet)
No wonder this shit is so contagious. Every time you step into a room with someone who has it, the risk factor is very high.
Ah you beat me to it. Good news nonetheless, really shows that what we're doing is working. Hope people will take this as a reason to continue as we are now.Netherlands has seen its first decrease in current Intensive Care patients and regular patients since the start of the outbreak, the amount of patients currently in an intensive care unit dropped by 16 compared to yesterday, amount of patients in regular care dropped from over 2800 to over 2700.
It might also be one factor of Asian differences... the number of people with glasses is quite high.
Also, genetics is in action, the prevalence of loss of smell and taste is much higher in european population, and specially women, and same for skin conditions european doctors report (urticaria, red toes, red strokes on slightly swollen tongue, light red speckles on the skin etc) .
So that explains that as well. It is not the first time I got a skin issue after a cold infection.
So a couple of things:
1. They are only projecting deaths for the first waive. They are not projecting any deaths after June 1st effectively. So they are NOT projecting total deaths.
2. Their numbers have been off for some states. Example - Colorado is CURRENTLY using 4 times as many ventilators as they project peak use in Colorado.
3. Poor testing data is being fed into them from many states
4. It assumes full social distancing which is questionable across most the country.
unfortunately they are shared by the hate house and other news organizations without properly explaining what they are doing
I see. That's certainly possible as we are already doing it here in my state in Germany. However no child care means I am in home-office. Restaurants are already open, just not for consumption on the spot, only take-away. Same for canteens. It seems we could still flatten the curve with it.I mean office's workers. If you reopen offices you will need to reopen restaurants at least.
Testing in Denmark has showed the following regarding infection distances:
Breath/talking: up to 2 metres (6 feet)
Coughing: Up to 6 metres (18 feet)
Sneezing: Up to 8-9 metres (24-26 feet)
No wonder this shit is so contagious. Every time you step into a room with someone who has it, the risk factor is very high.
Can we please stop using models at face value which predict peaks and hospital need on faulty data?
Yeah but you can feel the tension in the air of people who want it to be over. I have a bad feeling people will think too easily about this and i fear people will ignore the rules pretty soon. Until now it all seemed a fun experiment for most people. But now the fun has faded and the sun is coming out i can see people doing stupid things again.Some good news from the Netherlands: for the first time the number of patients in the ICU has dropped (-16) since yesterday. The numbers of daily number of new ICU patients has been dropping the last few days, but this is the first time the number actually decreased.
Welp, its official, I'm cutting my family off over this shit.
They're not taking it seriously, so I want nothing to do with them anymore.
My dad dropped the ots just the flu crap and then called me an authoritarian when I called him on it.
If they want to be fucking fascists because I'm the only liberal in this house, they can kiss my ass.
I want nothing to so with them anymore, nothing.
Welp, its official, I'm cutting my family off over this shit.
They're not taking it seriously, so I want nothing to do with them anymore.
My dad dropped the ots just the flu crap and then called me an authoritarian when I called him on it.
If they want to be fucking fascists because I'm the only liberal in this house, they can kiss my ass.
I want nothing to so with them anymore, nothing.
I'm very sorry to hear that it had to come to that.
I'm curious. If they still believe it's just the flu, what is their reaction to Trump publically acknowledging it is real? He's been pressured by "the deep state" or some shit like that?
...you live in their house though? Maybe just agree not to talk about the virus stuff, rather than going to war with people you live with.
SCMP News on Twitter
“Coronavirus: South Korea capital Seoul orders bars, clubs to close https://t.co/S2IwojRng7”twitter.com
He's an authoritarian fascist asshole and I want nothing to do with him anymore. I came back home to get help, and they've only made my problem worse.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't SK another one of those countries that "had the virus under control and surprised scientist" a few weeks ago like Japan? It seems like everyone is slowly figuring out you can't actually control this beast.
SCMP News on Twitter
“Coronavirus: South Korea capital Seoul orders bars, clubs to close https://t.co/S2IwojRng7”twitter.com
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't SK another one of those countries that "had the virus under control and surprised scientist" a few weeks ago like Japan? It seems like everyone is slowly figuring out you can't actually control this beast.
It's more likely they are just being very aggresive.Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't SK another one of those countries that "had the virus under control and surprised scientist" a few weeks ago like Japan? It seems like everyone is slowly figuring out you can't actually control this beast.
Sure, but that's what we're doing. Not a day goes by where we're not reminded, every bit of news (good or bad) comes with the notion that all of it goes to waste if we ease up too soon. Police are handing out fines, cities close major gathering locations etc. etc.Yeah but you can feel the tension in the air of people who want it to be over. I have a bad feeling people will think too easily about this and i fear people will ignore the rules pretty soon. Until now it all seemed a fun experiment for most people. But now the fun has faded and the sun is coming out i can see people doing stupid things again.
We really have to keep reminding each other to keep these rules at heart and keep taking this serious. We can do this but we also must find ways to keep convincing ignorant, stupid and selfish people. For weeks and months.
Jesus Christ.Testing in Denmark has showed the following regarding infection distances:
Breath/talking: up to 2 metres (6 feet)
Coughing: Up to 6 metres (18 feet)
Sneezing: Up to 8-9 metres (24-26 feet)
No wonder this shit is so contagious. Every time you step into a room with someone who has it, the risk factor is very high.
They're using FALSE data for multiple states and countries. This is about as credible as trumps press conferences.Can we stop discounting credible scientific research because disagree with the results?
They also make it quite clear with the caveats especially around social distancing in their FAQ.
Portugal:
13041 confirmed cases.
+699 since yesterday. 5.6% growth.
380 deaths.
+35 since yesterday.
196 recoveries.
+12 since yesterday
1211 people hospitalised.
+31 since yesterday
245 in the ICU.
-26 since yesterday. ( BIG decrease in this # for the first time ever I think).
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Our growth rate has very much remained stable in single digits and between ~5% to ~8% in the past week and half. I think it's now safe to say we're at or reaching our plateau. Unfortunately the deaths haven't exactly slowed down, but for the first time we're seeing a decrease in the ICU cases so maybe in the coming days things will be better in that regard.
Our recovery numbers remain sluggish though, not really sure why.