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mario_O

Member
Nov 15, 2017
2,755
Wait, so a massive portion of people who test positive never show any symptoms? I thought that number was really low, if not just rumour...
According to the WHO's latest paper, most people develop symptoms.
80% mild to moderate.
14% serious.
6 % critical.

Maybe what they mean is that people with mild symptoms will not be included.
The logic in this I do not understand.
 

nekkid

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
21,823
According to that article, between 40 to 50% of those who test positive are asymptomatic.
The WHO study from China states that most of the people who test positive will get the symptoms at some point so it could be just delaying the counting.

I guess these two don't entirely contradict each other (60% is "most of"), but the don't immediately sound like they align.


According to the WHO's latest paper, most people develop symptoms.
80% mild to moderate.
14% serious.
6 % critical.

Maybe what they mean is that people with mild symptoms will not be included.
The logic in this I do not understand.

Well then, those numbers from China and Italy really don't make much sense.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,009
Yeah... so i guess a decent guideline to follow could be:

1) you notice ANY kind of new cold type symptoms

2) self quarantine and observe what happens

3) you stay the same and/or slowly get better -> stay at home until fully recovered/quarantine time is up

OR
you get worse and this is the tricky part (HOW much worse do you actually have to get to know you gotta escalate things?)
and call the hotline and hope there's a free bed waiting for you in the hospital

Not sure i got this right but this seems kinda logical to me now except for the part where you have to decide for yourself that NOW is
the time to get to the hospital, risking infection in case you only had the damn FLU of course :(

In Austria there's a hot line for this and the recommendation is not to go to the doctor, call the line and doctors in proper gear will come to check you at home if needed.
 

Deleted member 34788

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 29, 2017
3,545
The good news is pretty much limited to China after huge containment measures that probably wont be replicated anywhere else. If you aren't in China its pretty much bad news all around.

Nah, apart from Iran (fuck me) almost every country has taken a zero tolerance approach and proactively tried to avoid the first steps china did back in December. They succeeded. Likely brought a whole load of time to implement procedures to save countless lives too. Even in sk the case rate has fallen dramatically since last week. If the globe did what china did to begin with and missed that crucial window, then the global strife would be 100x fold and we would be at almost six digit death toll.

Hubei was turbofucked before any real action was taken. Like at the point of collapse.

You even have largely anti vax parts of governments like Italy take massive action to avoid a gigantic caseload like China had in January.

Yes, whilst the us gov is being almost as bad as China in dealing with the first stages of outbreaks there, the cdc, states, and other agencies are doing what they can given the powers they have.

Can they do much more? You bet, but they cant because of trump and co. Even they are allocating billions to fight this. Not enough no, but chinese local government effectively buried its head in the sand when this disease was first discovered. Then told the people who knew to shut the fuck up.



Part of me wasn't (I'm a hypochondriac so I try to downplay this stuff to myself in general to keep from going in teh total other direction) until I read 6% for people with chronic respiratory diseases (I got asthma).


No, that I can understand. Absolutely. But I always see little to no point in worrying and stress. Those just have an untold toll on your body and mind. But by all means, be concerned and use that to avoid getting this at all costs due to your asthma.

Only fools ignore real danger like this virus is and brush it off and stay in ignorance. You have to keep up with the facts coming out.
 
Last edited:

Deleted member 21709

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
23,310
I live in Portland, OR. Would it be overkill to stop going into the office as soon as this week? My manager told me last Thursday that I can go ahead and get what I need to work from home ready to go. I feel like we're at the point where if it's going to become widespread in the US it will be happening this week. That case with the teacher in Lake Oswego is with a few miles of my office.

Being cautious is not overkill. If you are given the opportunity, take it. It can only help if you limit risk to yourself and others.
 

52club

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,499
According to the WHO's latest paper, most people develop symptoms.
80% mild to moderate.
14% serious.
6 % critical.

Maybe what they mean is that people with mild symptoms will not be included.
The logic in this I do not understand.

Leaving out the age distribution out of any numbers seems strange at this point.
 

LProtagonist

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
7,602
Here is a silly question, can you still die if you don't show symptoms?

Actually that's a serious question
The reason why you would die from this disease would be your lungs becoming inflamed and essentially failing to oxygenate your blood. You'd most certainly develop some other symptoms such as a cough and a fever were this to happen. Not to mention shortness of breath... yeah, you'd notice this happening to your body.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,009
I guess these two don't entirely contradict each other (60% is "most of"), but the don't immediately sound like they align.

Nah, I think it talks about two different things. People can test positive without having any symptoms yet and they won't be counted. But most likely these people will get some symptoms at some point (more or less severe).
 

nekkid

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
21,823
Nah, I think it talks about two different things. People can test positive without having any symptoms yet and they won't be counted. But most likely these people will get some symptoms at some point (more or less severe).

Yeah I did wonder if they meant asymptomatic at that moment. Seems very ill-advised.
 

ReactionShot

Member
Oct 25, 2017
505
Heat map of China from Jan 23, 2020 to Jan 30, 2020:

0826e89d-074a-406c-8ctjev.jpeg


Heat map of China from Feb 19, 2020 to Feb 26, 2020:

2b695a27-8901-42e0-bd7jga.jpeg


Whatever environmental effect there was, it obviously does not last very long.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,798
-The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

yikes. I got all of that sans the vomiting
 

Deleted member 19844

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
3,500
United States
Stop with this downplaying bs.
If everyone gets it, 225 million people will die just from the 3% mortality rate! The hospitals won't be able to treat the ICU cases which are currently at 10%. And a few of the 40% mild cases who are in hospital will get worse because they don't get treated.
1. The mortality rate is nowhere near 3%.
2. Efforts beyond basic hygiene to contain the spread of the virus have been futile.
3. If you're older or have other health conditions, I totally get going above and beyond to limit your exposure (as minimal of an impact as it might have). But if you're young-to-middle-aged and healthy, you're putting in a whole lot of unsuccessful effort and anxiety by going beyond basic hygiene.
 

TheGhost

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,137
Long Island
-The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.
That's scary, it's winter I feel like that every two weeks.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,197
I live in one of the areas in the US with several cases. I have symptoms that correlate with what we're seeing here. Went to a clinic, got a flu and strep swab, both came negative, did a chest x-ray and they couldn't decide anything about it. They said I definitely have something viral but they can't figure out what. They asked me the questionnaire for travel and recent contacts who have traveled, but I don't have any, so they didn't test me for covid. Sent me back home saying to come back if I feel worse.

I'll be self quarantining.
I strongly recommend that you contact your local health department. Find a number, call them, explain your situation, and make sure they have all your information if requested.

The ability to test for infection should be greater over the coming week than it is right now, and if you have the virus, there's a lot of information they can use from you about how you were exposed and who else may be at risk (as well as keeping you and the people who may have come into contact with you safe).
 

DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,059
Seattle, WA
User banned (3 days): Ignoring staff post with regard to unsubstantiated information
I was told that vitamin D and Turmeric will greatly boost your bodies ability to fight the virus and mitigate the symptoms. Maybe that's why India hasn't had many outbreaks? Lots of sun and everyone eats turmeric everyday.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,798
Planning on a checkup?

I am self-quarantining for the time being. I'm a big baby and despite having those systems I can't distinguish this from the cold or a light flu; I am going to call out of work for a day or two and see if I feel better. If not, then sure, though I am in Utah and I'd have to be pretty unlucky to get it first.
 

OG YOLOwen

Banned
Mar 24, 2019
814
Okay asking again. I'm supposed to be going to Prague this Friday with my family for 10 days. I heard that the Czech republic now has 3 reported cases of coronavirus, all three of which came from Italy.

Am I at risk? I was really hoping to go there and make out with some fine European ladies.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,065
Okay asking again. I'm supposed to be going to Prague this Friday with my family for 10 days. I heard that the Czech republic now has 3 reported cases of coronavirus, all three of which came from Italy.

Am I at risk? I was really hoping to go there and make out with some fine European ladies.
3 people out of 10.5 million? I think your chances of catching it are highly unlikely. Do you know where in the Czech Republic the cases are? Are they actually in Prague?
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,294
There are currently 88,320 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,000 fatalities.
That isn't how statistics or disease modeling work. There's a hell of a lot more to it than simply dividing confirmed deaths by confirmed cases. For example here's a study by Imperial College (Neil Ferguson, his work on this outbreak has been cited extensively) that estimates about 1%. Here's another from AABB that estimates 0.94% after revisions with additional data.

We obviously won't truly know until the outbreak is over but pretty much every proper study at this point is pointing to around 0.5-2%. Very bad but when we're talking thousands, even millions of infections there's a huge difference in even single percentages.
 

TheUnseenTheUnheard

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
May 25, 2018
9,647
So 2 people near/in Seattle area hospitalized with Coronavirus who had close contact with a bunch of people and they're still trying to find out who.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,865
-The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

I've had 3/4ths on these symptoms for almost three weeks. Wife started the same a week ago. Live in Snohomish County, WA. There has been no trace contact with anyone directly overseas outside of an early interaction in January with a coworker coming back from Shangahi. I just assumed it was just a seasonal cold. Went into isolation late last week as a precaution, only going out at odd times to get supplies.

Not worried because our symptoms are mild and we are healthy. Just annoyed that there is no clear or straightforward way to get tested.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,009
That isn't how statistics or disease modeling work. There's a hell of a lot more to it than simply dividing confirmed deaths by confirmed cases. For example here's a study by Imperial College (Neil Ferguson, his work on this outbreak has been cited extensively) that estimates about 1%. Here's another from AABB that estimates 0.94% after revisions with additional data.

We obviously won't truly know until the outbreak is over but pretty much every proper study at this point is pointing to around 0.5-2%. Very bad but when we're talking thousands, even millions of infections there's a huge difference in even single percentages.

And I already wrote the first study used data from outside China up until 8th of February.

The second study States:

"Current Outbreak
In addition to the China outbreak, there are 21 countries with confirmed 2019-nCoV cases,
almost all acquired during travel to China. "

So yeah. Things outside China changed dramatically since then.
 

Lastbroadcast

Member
Jul 6, 2018
1,938
Sydney, Australia
Australia just had its first death, in Perth:

www.smh.com.au

As the day unfolded: First person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 confirmed in Sydney

Australia has recorded its first coronavirus death as fears grow that a local outbreak of the disease is imminent.

The 78-year old man was on the Diamond Princess.

There's also some news that some people who flew back from Iran to Sydney via Qatar have become sick with Coronavirus, and there may have been a person to person transmission here.
 

iamaustrian

Member
Nov 27, 2017
1,291
Okay asking again. I'm supposed to be going to Prague this Friday with my family for 10 days. I heard that the Czech republic now has 3 reported cases of coronavirus, all three of which came from Italy.

Am I at risk? I was really hoping to go there and make out with some fine European ladies.

I mean, if you are healthy why not?

Bars and restaurants were absolutly packed here in my area (austria, 14 cases). as usual on saturday nights.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,197
I've had 3/4ths on these symptoms for almost three weeks. Wife started the same a week ago. Live in Snohomish County, WA. There has been no trace contact with anyone directly overseas outside of an early interaction in January with a coworker coming back from Shangahi. I just assumed it was just a seasonal cold. Went into isolation late last week as a precaution, only going out at odd times to get supplies.

Not worried because our symptoms are mild and we are healthy. Just annoyed that there is no clear or straightforward way to get tested.
As with another person above, I strongly recommend you contact your local health department and explain your situation, giving them all the relevant information if requested.

It should be easier to get tested in coming days, and if you are infected, they can use the information you provide about how you may have been exposed and who you've come into contact with since that exposure (as you may have passed it on to other people). They may also be able to help with monitoring your condition and getting you access to treatment if it becomes necessary.
 

mario_O

Member
Nov 15, 2017
2,755
The denominator is actually much higher because many aren't tested and many are asymptomatic or have symptoms too mild to notice.
In China they are obligated to report even mild symptoms to authorities. That's why the WHO didn't find many mild cases of COVID not detected. And the CFR is as of today 3,6% with 79,824 cases and 2,870 deaths.
And this is with some crazy draconian containment measures.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,009
Also that British study almost uses Western exceptionalism as an argument while we know from the WHO study that China took containment and treatment measures that will never be realistically implemented in the Western countries.
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,748
For my work during busy times of the year, I end up having to order out and expense the meal.

I'm assuming it would be much safer (if I have to) order from places in which employees likely to be granted sick pay. Ideally, I'd like to avoid ordering out, but sometimes it's not feasible due to the lack of time to cook...

The nightmare scenario I can see for a city like Chicago/New York is a symptomatic/asymptomatic restaurant worker being infected and spreading that to a shitload of customers/employees. That's just a high risk situation waiting to happen.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,009
Wait are you claiming that your denominator is accurate?


No, I'm claiming that there is no proof that there are enough unreported cases where they really test the people to significantly reduce the mortality rate as you claim using a study that uses outdated data.

Where they don't test enough yet (like in US) both infected and deaths are in very low numbers.
 
Sep 17, 2018
531