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Superman00

Member
Jan 9, 2018
1,140
A lot of the things I'm reading has me confident that this will be on the lower scale of things. I read news about fevers dropping around the country, and death rates being a lot lower. I definitely don't feel "dread" — just concern as we endure, as "better than hoped for" does not mean "safe and sound" — this is still a horrific tragedy the moment one person died. I just feel optimism that this isn't the worst case scenario anymore.

What make you say that? Death rates are low now because it takes time to catch up. It could take weeks before it kills you. Out of 164K cases, over 154K cases are still active.
 

Deleted member 61002

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 1, 2019
633
www.worldometers.info

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

So I have just a quick question.

I keep hearing the death rate floating around to be between 1% and 4.5% with Italy being an outlier.

However, of all the closed cases according to this, it says 19% resulted in death.

The death rate can't possibly be almost 20%, right?
 

El Bombastico

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
36,080
www.worldometers.info

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

So I have just a quick question.

I keep hearing the death rate floating around to be between 1% and 4.5% with Italy being an outlier.

However, of all the closed cases according to this, it says 19% resulted in death.

The death rate can't possibly be almost 20%, right?

The number of people that have this is much, much, MUCH higher than the people actually being tested. Especially if up to 1/3 are asymptomatic as the Chinese testing suggested.
 

ejoshua

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,403
What make you say that? Death rates are low now because it takes time to catch up. It could take weeks before it kills you. Out of 164K cases, over 154K cases are still active.

I was hesitant to speak optimism but I thought it would be worth it for people to read in the midst of earner frustrations. What makes me say that is an article posted above about death percentages being lower than expected (doesn't mean 0 deaths, or that it's over, just lower than expected), and than an article here about temperatures dropping as a whole.

I made very sure in my post to try to stress I was not trying to diminish real and actual concern, but that it could be better than we hoped — possibly.
 

Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
www.worldometers.info

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

So I have just a quick question.

I keep hearing the death rate floating around to be between 1% and 4.5% with Italy being an outlier.

However, of all the closed cases according to this, it says 19% resulted in death.

The death rate can't possibly be almost 20%, right?
They probably don't do whatever is needed to close the case for people with mild cases because there's no need to waste time and tests on them after they get better, but every single death is a closed case.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,660
www.worldometers.info

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

So I have just a quick question.

I keep hearing the death rate floating around to be between 1% and 4.5% with Italy being an outlier.

However, of all the closed cases according to this, it says 19% resulted in death.

The death rate can't possibly be almost 20%, right?

those are only tested cases, but the actual number of infected is far higher. The Imperial College London just completed a study taking asymptomatic and the best estimates of untested infected numbers into account: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

estimate overall CFR of .66% with an under-40 CFR at 0.16% over 80 it rockets to 7.8% though.
 

Gpsych

Member
May 20, 2019
2,904
www.worldometers.info

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

So I have just a quick question.

I keep hearing the death rate floating around to be between 1% and 4.5% with Italy being an outlier.

However, of all the closed cases according to this, it says 19% resulted in death.

The death rate can't possibly be almost 20%, right?

There was a Lancet study that suggested the CFR was .66% when you account for asymptomatic cases. CNN reported on it.

www.cnn.com

Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported, study says, but it's still deadlier than seasonal flu | CNN

How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

It's important to note that .66% is still horrifying and nothing to mock. It's much worse than the flu (especially for older people), but it's not the worst case scenario (apparently) that was originally suspected. That being said, this is just one study.
 

Superman00

Member
Jan 9, 2018
1,140
I was hesitant to speak optimism but I thought it would be worth it for people to read in the midst of earner frustrations. What makes me say that is an article posted above about death percentages being lower than expected (doesn't mean 0 deaths, or that it's over, just lower than expected), and than an article here about temperatures dropping as a whole.

I made very sure in my post to try to stress I was not trying to diminish real and actual concern, but that it could be better than we hoped — possibly.

Not to scare you or anything, but the problem with that article is that the death are underreported in a bunch of countries. In Italy and Spain, they weren't even counting the people that died at home or elderly care centers.
 

Ether_Snake

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
11,306
Will all the school closures and online classes, it becomes obvious that yeah, internet access should be covered for everyone as a free service, at least something basic.
 

Deleted member 34949

Account closed at user request
Banned
Nov 30, 2017
19,101
Friend of mine that had it seems to be on the upswing now. Looked like absolute hell last week, but now he looks and feels well. Seems like the worst of it for him lasted a little over a week.
 

Necromanti

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,551
So one thing I'm wondering is if you get a virus and develop immunity, aren't every one of them different at least a little bit due to mutations? What is the threshold at which the virus is distinct enough to the point that you are no longer immune? I'm guessing we don't have a very clear understanding of immunity, feels like you might be immune until you come in contact with the virus from somewhere else where it would have mutated for a long-enough period to be different enough.

Maybe if everyone was always exposed to the virus, we would preserve our immunity because we would always be on the edge of immunity. Maybe that's how it works with the so-called common-flu; the strains that have been less common become more likely to bypass our immune systems, so when they finally spread enough they become more common while the others that were more common were spreading less so they end up getting phased out/extinct. A bit like how antiobiotics eventually become less efficient as only the bacterias that were not countered remain.
I'm not a virologist, but it really depends which part of the virus the antibodies are specific against. I think its spike proteins (which assists with binding it to cells) are more immunogenic, so it's more likely for there to be antibodies made against it. And that protein is more likely to be stable since mutations there would mean the virus is less effective. So if there are antibodies targeting an integral part of a pathogen, then it would be harder for it to escape destruction without also making itself less infectious. So there's a trade-off. Of course, if the antibody is specific against a non-essential part of a protein, then any mutations in that part means escaping detection without self-compromise. I believe people are attempting to develop therapeutic antibodies against Covid-19.

The main risk with a lot of people getting the virus is that the higher the number of people that get infected, the more opportunities the virus will have to mutate.
 

Matheulbeuk

Member
Dec 16, 2018
132
Anyone working in a hospital here ? I do not know how the situation is in England and the United States, but I am starting to seriously get morally tired. It's exhausting to see more and more young people going to intensive care every day. We take care of them for several days, we see them go rather well, and by the 10th day, they are no longer there.

How do you handle it ?
 

The Emperor

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,790
Anyone working in a hospital here ? I do not know how the situation is in England and the United States, but I am starting to seriously get morally tired. It's exhausting to see more and more young people going to intensive care every day. We take care of them for several days, we see them go rather well, and by the 10th day, they are no longer there.

How do you handle it ?
Talk to each other (other staff). Accept the difficulty and the unprecedentedness of the situation. Accept feeling sad about it as it is normal.

Accept that this will end and won't go on forever.

See if your hospital is offering any help re mental health for staff in this crisis. In UK nhs workers can get the headspace app for free

Mind you I'm in australia and it isnt that bad here yet...when Im in your position I may well be feeling a lot lot worse
 

Necromanti

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,551
Why are alot of the face shield that companies making only single use? Why can't the plastic be wiped down?
I'm guessing it's to minimize any risk of exposure by not having someone touch the potentially infectious shield surface and also have to transport it elsewhere for disinfection (rather than disposing of it on the spot).
 

Deleted member 1476

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,449
Anyone working in a hospital here ? I do not know how the situation is in England and the United States, but I am starting to seriously get morally tired. It's exhausting to see more and more young people going to intensive care every day. We take care of them for several days, we see them go rather well, and by the 10th day, they are no longer there.

How do you handle it ?

Wait, what? Where is this?
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,384
Seattle
Lizzo sent lunches for medical professionals to hospitals around the country 👏👏

seattlerefined.com

Lizzo treats UW Medicine ER staff to lunch

As if we needed one more reason to love Lizzo. According to a tweet by UW Medicine, the award-winning singer/songwriter/rapper/flautist sent staff at the Montlake UW Medical Center Emergency Department lunch today (March 30). "Thank you @Lizzo for sending lunches to the UW Medical Center -...

 

MechDX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,688
I still can't find cleaners or sanitizers anywhere, or gloves for that matter.

If you have a Harbor Freight Tools near you check for gloves. They donated all their 5 and 7 mil gloves to local emergency rooms but their 3 and 9 mil are still available for purchase

I have seen lysol and Clorox spray cleaner at target and WM in the middle of the afternoon around me in the Houston suburbs
 

elty

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,957
Wait, what? Where is this?

He is from France I think.

Please take it as a grain of sand, but I have read several case about young people (<40) who die from China. They all appeared to be recovering yet suddenly deteriorate die in a short order. This seems to be different from how older people die. I don't think there is any research or study to confirm or deny this.
 

Matheulbeuk

Member
Dec 16, 2018
132
Wait, what? Where is this?

France. And when I say young, it's not necessarily really young patients, but people in their forties. The intensive care unit of my hospital
dont take people who are over 70 years old. It's just sad to see active people, with busy lives, not being able to be treated as they should be.

Talk to each other (other staff). Accept the difficulty and the unprecedentedness of the situation. Accept feeling sad about it as it is normal.

Accept that this will end and won't go on forever.

See if your hospital is offering any help re mental health for staff in this crisis. In UK nhs workers can get the headspace app for free

Mind you I'm in australia and it isnt that bad here yet...when Im in your position I may well be feeling a lot lot worse

Thanks man, I really appreciate your post. My hospital has created a hotline for the worker who need to talk. I thinK i will give them a call.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,391
Anyone working in a hospital here ? I do not know how the situation is in England and the United States, but I am starting to seriously get morally tired. It's exhausting to see more and more young people going to intensive care every day. We take care of them for several days, we see them go rather well, and by the 10th day, they are no longer there.

How do you handle it ?
I can't imagine the stress you're under. Thank you for all that you're doing! I know that those words seem trite and small but know that billions around the world appreciate what you're doing.

Holy shit at Spain... is that a larger increase than Italy at any point of time?
According to this:
www.worldometers.info

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
Italy lost 919 people on 3/27.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,905
www.cnn.com

Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported, study says, but it's still deadlier than seasonal flu | CNN

How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.
Here's to hoping but it doesn't seem that the study is taking into account there is also significantly underreporting on deaths as well
 

Ether_Snake

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
11,306
I'm not a virologist, but it really depends which part of the virus the antibodies are specific against. I think its spike proteins (which assists with binding it to cells) are more immunogenic, so it's more likely for there to be antibodies made against it. And that protein is more likely to be stable since mutations there would mean the virus is less effective. So if there are antibodies targeting an integral part of a pathogen, then it would be harder for it to escape destruction without also making itself less infectious. So there's a trade-off. Of course, if the antibody is specific against a non-essential part of a protein, then any mutations in that part means escaping detection without self-compromise. I believe people are attempting to develop therapeutic antibodies against Covid-19.

The main risk with a lot of people getting the virus is that the higher the number of people that get infected, the more opportunities the virus will have to mutate.

Interesting. I'm curious how the immune system would manage to neutralize the spikey aspect of the virus. Plus it sounds like it would mean some immunization against other types of coronaviruses. Could this explain the lower mortality rate in some Asian countries? Might they have developed some form of immunity against corona-like viruses due to past infections, maybe some which we were not even widely aware of but which would have been more common in Asia?
 

Stall_19

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,000
New York with well over 7k new cases....I can't imagine the strain the healthcare system is going through over there.
 

CrankyJay

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,318
I'm not a virologist, but it really depends which part of the virus the antibodies are specific against. I think its spike proteins (which assists with binding it to cells) are more immunogenic, so it's more likely for there to be antibodies made against it. And that protein is more likely to be stable since mutations there would mean the virus is less effective. So if there are antibodies targeting an integral part of a pathogen, then it would be harder for it to escape destruction without also making itself less infectious. So there's a trade-off. Of course, if the antibody is specific against a non-essential part of a protein, then any mutations in that part means escaping detection without self-compromise. I believe people are attempting to develop therapeutic antibodies against Covid-19.

The main risk with a lot of people getting the virus is that the higher the number of people that get infected, the more opportunities the virus will have to mutate.

Are mutations chance happenings or evolutionary necessity? If it's the latter, then there's no need for it to mutate to survive since it spreads so easily.
 

TorianElecdra

Member
Feb 25, 2020
2,515
Oh wow... Is this recent? I hope things calm down a bit. We're pretty much about to enter the first climb. Did you hear Gatell's announcement tonight? It's just ridiculous. Dude went from "we'll be fine" to "THIS IS OUR LAST CHANCE" overnight. For Christ's sake.

Yeah, this week things have changed in general. People going a bit nuts.
www.worldometers.info

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

So I have just a quick question.

I keep hearing the death rate floating around to be between 1% and 4.5% with Italy being an outlier.

However, of all the closed cases according to this, it says 19% resulted in death.

The death rate can't possibly be almost 20%, right?

A case normally closes between 2-4 weeks after the person tests positive. Most of the open cases are people that are okay-ish but not out of the illness yet.
 

Birdie

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
26,289
So my apartment is offering options for people who can't pay rent...don't know what it is exactly as I don't need it but that's good.